Two more polls from last night. ComRes has a new voting intention poll for the Mirror and GMTV. Topline figures are CON 39%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 15%(-1), so virtually no change from their poll in the Indy a week and a half ago, and still showing Labour somewhat lower than other companies.

YouGov’s daily tracker meanwhile showed figures of CON 42% LAB 37% LD 14%, with the Conservatives maintaining a lead of 4-5 points or so.

One thing I missed from the ICM poll last night, they asked an AV voting intention question and found the contest neck and neck. 45% supported AV, 45% opposed it. This is very much in line with the YouGov poll on Monday showing the No campaign just one point ahead.

448 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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    Successive British PMs have governed two nations Barney. England & Scotland. One of them does show stomach for the challenges of life from time to time, the other balls for the next handout on an ongoing basis.

  2. Danniel in Nottingham
    “…and you guys seem to know what you are talking about.”


    I would say there’s handful of people – and I exclude myself.

  3. Daniel,

    Welcoem :)

    One rudimentary measure of fathoming the different wings of the tellows is to go back and look at the pre-unifaction polls of the early 1980s. If you take this at face value the rightist element (as opposed to the social democrats) outnumbers them by three to one.

    Another method is to look at the Orange book clud memebrship and compare it to those in the beveridge group. I have done this and found the following… most of the lefties are getting odl and dwindling in number..

    My conclusion is that the time is ripe for liberal assimilation into a centrist blues… one jolt to the right from blue could upset the whole applecart.

  4. @ Sue

    Eoin, Amber – I have devised a cunning test of our leadership candidates, to see who is just talking the talk and who is the real deal. They have exactly 1 week.

    I’ll let you know the outcome
    I’m looking forward to your conclusions; & loved your ‘gutter’ anecdote – it made me LOL :-)

  5. Sue,

    I look forward to your results…. and the details of your test when it emerges. in Belfast, we have something called the Platinum test but I would not reccomend it. lol

  6. Daniel,

    Sorry for the tpyos. i was (rather belatedly) filling in expense claim forms. two took me 5 hours such is the scrutiny on them these days. I even had to write to small essays (one for each) just to make sure i was keeping myself right.

  7. Oh deary me. Clegg took up Cameron’s roll of Gaff in Chief according to the news and video going around.

    What was meant to be a Happy Smiles All Round Photo Op for Clegg on Wednesday turned into a bit of a disaster. He’d gone to a government funded inner-city day-care centre, so he could talk about how “Social Mobility Starts Here”.

    Sadly, no one at Conservative Central Office had mentioned that the day-care centre was being cut, and the local conservative council was seeking permission to sell the building and land for development.

    He was met by a Labour MP invited by the day-care centre, asked to defend closing it, and presented a hand made card from the children begging for it to be saved.

  8. @ Daniel in Nottingham

    I’ll try to make time this weekend to check out the sitting Dem MPs & say what I think their comparative Left -> Center -> Right position is.

    They are probably all to my right, but I’ll try to be more objective. It’ll prompt a debate about it, I’m sure you’ll revise your opinion that some of us know a lot!!! 8-)

    It seems from the posts on this board the poor old LDs are this years Ramsey MacDonald with Labour supporters. Also, those posters who were LDs before the GE, appear to be very much the variety who would prefer snogging with Millibloke rather than Darstardly Dave. I am not sure I have read one post from a Liberal who approves of the coalition. When one considers about a third of LDs think the coalition is ok, one might expect one or two posters of that ilk to show up.

  10. @ Jay Blanc

    We begin to see why the boss is known as ‘the gaffer’ in Scotland. Cameron & Clegg are in competition to be the chief gaff-er of the coalition.

  11. Jay – However inappropriately, that made me ROFL.

    Eoin/Amber – AB currently streets ahead already.

  12. @JAY BLANC
    If I were Nicko the Liberal, I would say to the kiddies,
    “write to nice uncle Gordon and ask why he spent all the pennies and made our social centre get flogged off”.

  13. Roland,

    It must be tough for them… Some have put their head above the parapit.. richard, howard spring to mind as cautious welcomers of the coalition.

    if I was an LD i would objectively say that supply and confidence would have worked much better… Give the blues 24 months were you undertake not to vote against them in a ‘no confidence’ measure in return for nothing. Yes absolutely nothing. That way they could have been shown to have put the interests of the country first. Clegg would have appeared statesmanlike.

    this to a lot of genuine centrists probably gives them the eebie jeebies…

    For my penny’s worth. It need not give them the eebie jeebies- thus far Cameron has been true to his word… A coalition with reds would have been just as big an electoral disaster for them. I stated in february that yellow would be mad to piggyback onto t a foruth Labour term. We would have seen poll tax style protests…

  14. @ Sue
    Does not surprise me about AB, after Eoin mentioned last night I went onto Andy4 leader website and followed a link to a Sun video of him being interviewed by a London cabbie and seemed so normal so effective, defended some things of the past government, I do not understand why/how the Millibands are supposedly streets ahead of him in the contest. I am praying for a miracle and AB to be the next Prime Mininster of Grreat Britain

  15. Roland Haines
    Despicable racism which should have no place on this web-site or any that is not for a closed group inclined to stir up hatred

    The Scots hate us quite enough already.

  17. @NeilA

    Growing up I learned to be something of a chameleon.

    Yep- I know that skill very well myself !!

    Have you ever seen ‘stand up nigel barton’ by Dennis Potter ?

  18. Rob/Neil – Me too!!

  19. “Well, if they are remotely like their friend and kin then…WHAT a surprise”

    Let me tell you about them Rob.

    Therese, a second generation Aussie took us up to Queensland to see her parents. This aged couple-first generation Aussies from Ireland’s west coast, gave us their hospitality in the house they built with their own hands, on the land they first broke with their own hands.
    They regaled us with memories of County Clare , and tales of building a sugar cane plantation from scratch in Queensland.
    These dignified, work worn , awsome , lovely people were revered in the local town , along with the rest of their generation, as founding fathers.
    Therese’s father died shortly after we returned home. Her mother died three months ago.
    Therese was as proud of them as they were of her and her brothers-all of them in professions of one sort or other.
    Theres’s husband-second generation Lebanese qualified as a geneticist in UK, where we became friends. They have just chucked their jobs & gone into private practice together.
    Their friends were mostly second generation Italians-hard workers all of them.

    Their thoughts on the Poms-nice enough-but spend far too much time worrying about which side of the tracks folk come from.
    It didn’t matter to their parents & it doesn’t matter to them.

  20. Roland

    “We havn’t had much comment on the topical subject of education have we.”

    No -or effective, caring & supportive parenting Roland.
    Or the vital place of both in a child’s future prospects.

  21. @Colin

    There are always exceptions to rules: the facts speak for themselves about the degree of influence generally of class not only in UK, Australia or USA but across the western world.

    Like I said before: those who always seek to deny that (more often than not pernicious) influence, almost never do so for good or positive reasons preferring to blame the individual themselves or some amorphous notion of ‘the state’.

  22. Roland

    “We havn’t had much comment on the topical subject of education have we.”

    read NeilA’s posts further up the thread.

  23. @daniel

    we know nothing, but we think we know it all

    the left/right thing is not so important to libdems, liberalism v authoritarianism is what is important


    i support the coalition but i’m not a zombie. i would have supported a deal with labour as well and i would have complained about it as much as the present deal. by nature i’m more supportive of deals to the left. but considering the deficit a deal with the blues was probably best. i think that it was a little scary that when the dems asked the reds what they would do about the deficit, they saw no reason to move from their pre-election position even though the situation in the markets had changed dramatically


    again with the mamby-pamby S&C stuff, either you’ve got the balls to do a deal or you are a waste of space

  24. Richard,

    In for a penny in for a pound eh?

    Watch they don’t catch you in the long grass that’s my advice.

  25. With regard to Eoin’s cherished confidence and supply notion for the Libs, a few points:

    (1) Having spent the last 40 years campaigning to be in the position to hold the balance of power and be able to push for some of their own agenda, to pass up the opportunity when it came up would have been incredible and damaged their credibility.

    (2) Having campaigned so long for PR, they needed to combat the myth that hung parliaments prioduce weak and unstable government. A tory minority would have been weak and unstable. A coalition stronger and more stable.

    (3) Clegg and his party campaigned heavily on the idea of politicians needing to work together. He could hardly then turn around and refuse to work with another party.

    (4) The markets needed the reassurance of a stable government, therefore arguably a coalition was more in the national interest than a tory minority.

    (5) A tory minority would pull more to the right than the current coalition and give more power to the Tory back benches, which is unquestionably not desirable to any yellow.

  26. Tony,

    good post. It is always hard for someone form the outside looking in to comment on the best way forward. You on the inside looking out are better placed. Point 5 in particular (and 1) are quite compelling.

    It is a zero sum game no though, I hope you would admit. To osme extent you guys are hostages to fortune.

  27. @Eoin

    Less of the you guys. I would currently describe myself as Green not yellow, although I’m perhaps on the yellow edge of the Green and have some sympathy for their situation. I do get tired of a certain vindictiveness towards yellow by some red (not yourself) and blue posters on here and advocates of a two party system. I’ve never voted either blue or red and feel pretty equally alienated by both.

  28. @amber, eoin and roland

    Thanks for the replys.

    I’m confused for what the yellows now stand for (no disrespect).
    from what I know when charlse kennedy was leader is the yellows were:

    pro europe
    progressive in taxation
    small government
    left of new labour
    no student fees
    against Iraq war
    amnisty for all illegal immergrents
    proportional representation in GE

    But now the yellows are in power, be that sharing, few if any of the above are being championed by nick clegg.

    @ rowland

    You say the yellows are against authoritarianism so do you think they support Gove with his free schools? I know they were not happy (the yellows not in government) about scrapping the refurbishing of stste schools.

    Also what about social care and tax credits. Are they more in line with blue or red?

  29. tony

    good posts

    i can really empathize with your alienation from the two big parties

  30. have the aussies started voting yet. why have they got a coalition party. how many parties have they got, apparently they could end up with a hung parliment. help i know nothing!

  31. Tonyotim – Great post at 3.14. Helped me to see the quandary the Libs were in clearly

  32. @ Daniel in Nottingham

    I completely agree with almost every word you say about the LibDems.

    The only slight change I’d make is ‘small’ government.

    I always believed that, collective, the Dems were for appropriate levels of government. e.g. State schools, universities & NHS do not = government that has become too big.

    Your comment about free schools aligns with my belief. 8-)

  33. @Daniel

    pro europe
    progressive in taxation
    small government
    left of new labour
    no student fees
    against Iraq war
    amnisty for all illegal immergrents
    proportional representation in GE

    I don’t think they ever consciously positioned themselves as left of New Labour, but were seen as such for the position on Iraq, immigration, etc…

    I suspect that they still hold most of the over values, I think you missed a strong stance on civil liberties which has come through in the coalition. The immigration amnesty was never going to be achievable in this coalition so is put to the side, AV is seen (debateably IMO) as a stepping stone to PR (but they also have plans in the coalition fot STV for the Lords), progressive taxation through the raising of the tax threshold. Its mainly all still there, I think the main area of compromise from your list would be student fees, where the party has had to change its stance through the current arrangement (but also through the current economic situation).

  34. @Eoin,

    In your 10.52 am post are you expressing your own views or a synopsis of some kind of polling? If they are your own views then I think you’re very far from reality there.

    The impoverished with tooth decay? Perhaps, but you surely cannot blame direct causation. Toothpaste is cheap. Sugar is expensive. If a poor person has tooth decay then they are seriously misdirecting their resources.

    Of course impoverished people often have poor dental hygiene, but this is co-causality. The sort of issues that lead you never to take care of your teeth are exactly the sort of issues that lead you to do badly in education and to fail to find (or keep) employment.

    It’s a bit like those poor alcoholics who drink £20 worth of strong lager every day because they don’t have the money to do anything else..

  35. Apparently:

    Scottish Holyrood voting intentions:

    Lab 37%
    SNP 34%
    LD 13%
    Con 11%

  36. @ Rob sheffield

    Any more details? How old is the poll? Are there figures for the regional list as well?

  37. Gracious Neil!

    A trip to an NHS dentist, just for a check up, costs £16.60 any treatment costs £45.60 (such as fillings or extractions) crowns, dentures bridges £198.

    You can brush your teeth twice a day, 5, 10 times if you like, but how many people can say they have no fillings at all?

    If you can’t afford £45.60, then the cavity gets worse. Abscesses form and the tooth just rots away. There is little pain more unbearable than toothache and many of these people find themselves with living most of their lives in pain.

  38. Rob Sheffield

    “those who always seek to deny that (more often than not pernicious) influence, almost never do so for good or positive reasons preferring to blame the individual themselves or some amorphous notion of ‘the state’.”

    Do they?
    You state this as though it were fact. I doubt it is.

    The exploitation of a given social status is as likely in the ranks of the privileged in any political system. Capitalism & Communism. I suppose it was ever thus.

    As to the general effects of the elements contributing to ones social status, I remain of the view that education & parenting are the key ones. If both are positive, other factors IMHO are no bar to social mobility.

    I have to believe that because it is my life experience.

    The other side of the coin which you present above is those who will use class prejudice as a reason to explain other factors in their life’s outcome , And this, in my view is at least as prevelant as the side of the coin you prefer.

  39. Neil A,

    We in NI consume 38 million tranquilizers annually. We love em… It was thought to be just women mostly but nope us men love em too… 25% of the Markets/Lower Ormeau men are on them… That stuff was quantifiable.

    Regarding teeth- you’ll have to pinch yourself… Your are not seriously telling me that the poor dont suffer due to lack of NHS dentists, due to costs and difficulty with getting onto a private dentists lists… It is one of the great demarcations of class and I am surprised that you Neil A would doubt it.

  40. NEILA

    “If I want to be taken seriously by policemen and criminals I talk common. If I want to be taken seriously by lawyers and doctors I talk posh.”

    I have only just caught up with this Neil -and was taken aback.

    Obviously I must defer to your experience in your job.

    But putting on a false accent -surely-is a patronising approach to conversing with people.
    It seems to assume that they need to know how you speak, rather than what you say.

    And even if “talking common” as you put it was ,done with Bremner like skill, isn’t their a likelihood that the other party-being the expert in that lingo-would smell a rat?

    Personally-one of the few things which puts me immediately on guard about someone, is if they don’t sound “genuine”.

    I would much rather hear what the person has to say in the way they normally say it.

    You learn something every day.

  41. Colin,

    I am guilty of the same accent swapping…

    Hard and rough as nails when I am in the ‘wrong’ place..

    Soft as pooh when I am talking to my son..

    When I have my teacher hat on I am told I sound english (might have something to do with training in Eng).

    And when I am back home, I thick it up a bit just to save face in front of the aul folk…

    And at soccer matches in Glasgee, well to fit in there you have to lost all the southern lilt I picked up as a child..

  42. Daniel,

    The easiest way to figure out what the LDs stand for is the following…

    They are now Liberals – not social democrats. The latter wing of the party has been dead for a while now it is kaput.

    Stick to the greens unless of course you are not a Social Democrat, which I am presumptiously deducing that you are….

    The closest I will ever come to affiliating with the LDs was 2005…. Gordon Brown rectified that.

  43. Eoin

    I am very very surprised.

  44. Anthony:

    Please forgive me going off topic. I was expecting to find reference to a Thursday poll by Yougov mentoned in The Scotsman

    Today is the day The Scotsman has been waiting for to predict that the SNP will lose the forthcoming election on account of the Megrahi decision.

    The SNP may indeed lose the election, but if so that will not be the reason.

    There are indications that there is an inverse correlation between support for the decision and distance from Greenock prison. Most of Texas is against it.

    Juxtapose that thought with the fact that my MSP is the minister for windmills. I am sure that I have taken a greater interest in windmills in the last four years than if he had had other responsibilities. That is quite natural. What an MSP does as a minister is bound to affect his constituents opinion.

    One of the things I will be examining the results of the forthcoming election for is to see whether the change in the SNP vote in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh is more favourable than in the rest of Scotland. I am sure voters there will have weighed up the arguments more carefully than voters elsewhere. Even if the issue costs the SNP the net loss of a handful of votes in every constituency it will be more than offset in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh.

    I was in correspondence with Kenny MacAskill on an unrelated matter before the 2007 election, and I came to the conclusion then that he was a person of compassion who understood a matter of principle when he encountered one. I have said so to family, friends and acquaintances ever since and as you can imagine the opportunities for doing so have been much more frequent in the last year.

    Compassion is the commonest of the attributes inscribed on the mace with which the Queen hanselled the Scottish Parliment. If you are short on Wisdom or Justice, others will come forward to advise you what to do. Integrity is less easy to find and has been in short supply in politics in recent decades. Like anything else is short supply, its value rises.

    In the short history of the Home Rule parliament I can only recall one other occasion which even came near to requiring all at once all four of the attributes that Donald Dewar said was what Scotland expected of the new parliament and its MSPs but what is most evident and most important in the present example is not Compassion at all nor is it even Wisdom or Justice, but Integrity.

  45. @ Eoin

    If I had to label my position on the political spectrum then it would have to be centre left. I consider myself a progressive social democrat not a socialist. When people say “the governmet should not interfere in peoples lives” I say ” the government should provide a helping hand”. The only reason IMO for anyone getting into politics should be to help the most vulnerable.

    On issues like free schools (academies), electing local police chiefs, VAT rises, 25-40% cuts in public services, tax break for married couples, Shuffling people around in council houses, with the exception of ID cards and reform of the voting system I simply connot agree with these coalition policies.

    From since ive been eligible to vote in GEs ive always voted labour with the exception of 2005. In the 2005 election I voted lib dem as i was a single issue voter because of the Iraq war and I knew the conservatives could not win.

    I guess the reason Im trying to paint a clear picture in my head of the lib dems is so I can take some solace in the years to come.I agree with many of their policies but iam worried that public services will be eroded under the banner of liberalism or localism.

  46. Daniel,

    The first part of your post was ‘cracker’.

    Take the ressure of yourself by answering three q’s

    (reds do not seem to like these points)

    Can we do anything about it now? (of course we cant)
    Do you care enough about the working man not to want to gamble that we might be back in 5? (of course you do)

    Well then it is simple- give this lot a bloody good bash at it- if they fail turf them out- if they succeed enough rihgt minded people (no pun intended) will keep them in.

    Frankly, it is the first time since Thatcher since I have thought______ really?

  47. Daniel

    “When people say “the governmet should not interfere in peoples lives” I say ” the government should provide a helping hand”.

    I agree with both of your quotaions.

    But I would make them one sentence, inserting “unneccesarily or unreasonably ” between “not” & “interfere” ; adding “where needed” at the end ; and changing “”should” to “must”.

  48. Hello???

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