An update on YouGov’s Welsh Assembly polling for ITV earlier in the week. YouGov now also have the regional figures on their website here, so along with the constituency figures we already had, the full figures are:
Assembly constituency vote: CON 20%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%, Plaid 22%
Assembly regional vote: CON 20%, LAB 37%, LDEM 14%, Plaid 20%
By my calculations I reckon on a uniform swing this would result in Labour 28 (up 2), Plaid Cymru 12 (down 3), Conservatives 11 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (up 2).
Labour should win Clwyd West and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives would get back a seat in North Wales on the regional vote at the expense of Plaid. The same would happen in Mid and West Wales, with the Conservatives losing a constituency but getting it back at the regional vote, again at the expense of Plaid. In south Wales Central, the Conservatives would lose 1 regional seat to the Lib Dems, in South Wales East Plaid would lose one to the Lib Dems.
Voting intention in the referendum on law making powers for the Welsh assembly stands at YES 48%, NO 34%.