YouGov’s daily voting intention figures are CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14%. Government approval is back to +5 (41% approve and 36% disapprove), bouncing back from a very tight +2 yesterday.

YouGov also had a new Welsh Assembly poll for ITV Wales out today. Constituency voting intention, with changes from last month, are CON 20%(+1), LAB 40%(-2), LDEM 13%(+1), Plaid 22%(+2). Changes are all within the margin of error, and reflect a consolidation of the great big shifts last month when Labour were up ten points and the Lib Dems down eight.


140 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 42/36/14”

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  1. @ Roland

    Well spotted!

    ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

  2. @VALERIE
    I dont know why we trouble with polling when such certainty walks the land.

  3. Richard

    A welcome to this board from me as well. Wonderful to have a Welsh Tory around as I have always understood they were an endangered species needing special ‘conservation’ measures.

    I have to say that the sort of polls coming out of Wales and Scotland indicate that there’s a fighting chance that Labour might have a working majority in both without the need for coalitions after next May – excellent news but a challenge as well.

  4. Voting Systems.

    I am very pleased to announce that a first draft of my proposed lecture is now complete. I will be in a position to share this incredible piece of political commentary, with you very soon!
    .. You are about to enter an era of “political enlightenment”

  5. WAYNE

    I can’t wait – but I hope that, qualitatively, it’s better than the majority of your posts.

  6. DavidB,

    Being envious does make people say hurtful things sometimes!

  7. @BILLY
    In the first instance Bill Labour were never near to death. In the second, they should be. However they are not. With regard to what is pleasant to behold or experience, for the individual or group, financial probity or constraint can play buggery. If you spend it and don’t make enough to replace it, there is an issue. Why vote to address the matter and then say ” I didnt mean me”.

  8. @ Wayne

    Out of genuine curiosity, where is it you’re giving this lecture to? Apologies if you’ve already said.

  9. Roland – The polling figures have certainly changed quite considerably since the election. If the changes have been down to floating voters then I don’t think any political party needs to think anything at all.

    You and I however spent very, very much time knocking on doors a few months ago, and if we agree on anything, it’s that the average voter doesn’t really pay very much attention (if any at all) to politics.

    If they are now surprised and not at all sure about the cuts, I would conclude it is down to the attention they gave us (or didn’t) in March and April!!

  10. @WAYNE
    As you are aware I am an elderly man and retire early.
    However, if I am able to sleep knowing what insight and privilege awaits me, I will salute that glad dawn which informs and guides me towards the truth born of brilliance.

  11. Billy,
    Reading Uni. Without doub’t it will be well received by media and political galatico’s.. Then plan to roll out across the country, book etc etc
    Exciting Times!

  12. @BILLY
    A word of advice. It’s often necessary to take everything that Roland and Wayne say with a pinch of salt.
    Everything I say on the other hand is worth very careful consideration.

  13. @ Roland

    I wouldn’t have the faintest idea – but you’ve missed the point. The point I was making was is that that is what people should be thinking, but not what they actually think.

    Why do you think people went out and bought lots of stuff that they couldn’t afford, by maxing out their credit cards? Why do you think lots of people who couldn’t afford mortgages, or multiple mortgages, went out and got them? Why do you think that people took loans out from banks that they could never hope to repay?

    My answer: because other people were doing it and the media was professing that it was a good idea (think of all the property shows on TV about doing up your house and making a profit from it). Plus banks kept offering the loans and what seemed like good rates (you know take out this loan and pay nothing on it for the first year! But then you pay at x number of interest for the next y number of years and small print shit like that)

    Others were doing it, people didn’t want to be left out, so they went thundering along with the herd. What can I say? Collectively ants are very intelligent. Collectively humans… aren’t.

  14. Roland,
    I am a young dynamic political genius.. Sleep is not for me.. There’s nothing that inspires me more than “penning” a classic piece of political brilliance!! .. Oh the wonder of it all ( my incredibility, that is)

  15. @ Wayne

    Sounds good. Sorry if this is probing too far into personal life, but do you teach at that uni?

  16. @ Julian Gilbert

    When your faith in humanity is as low as mine is you don’t need to bother, but thanks for the advice anyway :)

  17. Roland – I’m in moderation, so do go back and read my brilliant post of 6.47pm to you.

  18. DavidB,

    Firstly, Welsh Tories may have been a historically rare breed – and perhaps unknown if one lived in the valleys – but if they had become endangered in the 90’s tis clearly no longer the case.

    Just in case you have forgotten, it is less than 14 mths since the Tories “won” – i.e. came first – a nationwide election in Wales.

    Secondly,

    It is possible that if this poll were repeated in the Welsh Assembly result next May that Lab would scrape 30-31 seats in the Assembly – possible but by no means certain.

    However, there is next to no likelihood of Lab winning an outright majority in the Scottish parliament. The PR system used for Holyrood puts paid to that unless they get more than 50% of the votes – which, believe it or not, Labour have never achieved in Scotland; unlike the Tories who did so in 1931 and 1955.

    The electoral systems used for the Senedd and Holyrood are ostensibly the same, but in fact the Holyrood result is more proportional since there are more Regional List seats.

    Hence Lab derives its strength in the Assembly from its success in the constituency section. It only received 2 list seats in 2007 because it had lost so many constituencies. Seats regained at constuency level are likely to mean offsetting loss of the list seats. In other words, it would probably need to win an extra 7 consituencies in order to reach 31/60. That is not a given on these results – especially if many of those extra votes are piled up in seats they already hold in the valleys.

  19. @BILLY
    Now all my stereotypical illusions about Liberal Democrats have been well and truly smashed to pieces.
    Firstly I learn they’re not all cuddly and woolly. Then I find out they’re just as interested in getting into power as the rest of us.
    Now you tell me you have no faith in humanity.
    I mean if you lot have no faith in humanity, we are all surely doomed.
    :)

  20. @WAYNE
    In the last 150 years, Gladstone, Disraeli, Lloyd George, Churchill, Thatcher, Wayne. It all fits.

  21. Substitute “u” for “ibi” in last line of Wayne’s last post

  22. @ Julian Gilbert

    Ah, clarification, I’m not strictly a Liberal Democrat – I’m a disenfranchised anarchist, but I supported the Lib Dems because they were the most left-leaning mainstream party and they wanted PR.

    You can go back to safely believing that all real Lib Dems are boundless optimists :)

  23. @ROLAND
    I see you haven’t inserted Cameron before Wayne. Does that tell us anything?

  24. @BILLY -“You can go back to safely believing that all real Lib Dems are boundless optimists.”
    Thank goodness for that. :)

  25. @JULIAN GILBERT
    The jury is out Julian. Cameron may become a major (no pun intended) hate figure for people like you and Valerie, Amber, Sue, Rob, Davids Various ect. Oh, Barnaby. On the other hand, he might become a hate figure for me. I doubt the latter because he has guts. I dont expect you lot to acknowledge that at the moment, but he does. Whatever way you look at it, pratting about is not going to sort things out in 5 years. IMPO, he has a plan, dont expect agreement from you, its my own view.

  26. Salad days I believe

  27. Roland – I think Cameron has guts.

    He came from nowhere to become leader, he’s reigned in the extremes of his party (at least long enough to get power) but it was the way he negotiated the coalition that really made me rate him as an opponent.
    He’s spoken out on foreign policy and he’s attacked the cuts with real commitment.
    I may not agree with his actions, but I certainly think he has guts.

  28. @Roland…………Don’t you find it refreshing that, at last, we have a PM that tells the truth, after years of spin and WMD, Cameron has told it like it is in India, Gaza, a prison, that won’t go down too well with the Miliband family, Pakistan, not all sweetness and light, blimey that’ll upset Al Quaeda. Brilliant tour so far………..and he’s telling the truth……this could change politics as we know them.

  29. @ROLAND
    You might be surprised to hear that I agree with you. I have no problem recognising Cameron’s guts. I’ve said on here before that he has impressed me since the election. Before the election I saw him as ineffectual, doing everything he could to please the electorate.
    The biggest danger for Labour has always been a Tory leader who would be able to move the Tories to the centre but more importantly keep it there. So far he has managed to do that. But can he keep it up? I personally doubt it. They are slipping to the right already. The Tory right is a formidable force to be reckoned with. They are already showing their teeth and they will do so more and more as the polls get tighter (as they surely will IMO).
    Only time will tell.

  30. @KEN
    Do you think DC will go to, say Saudi Arabia, and tell them the truth? Or will that upset his ‘business based foreign policy’?

  31. Or China? ;)

  32. @ Ken

    I agree, it is refreshing. However, I think context is also a factor. He criticized Israel in Turkey (Turkey not happy with Israel right now, Cameron wants better business trade with Turkey, brownie points to Cameron.)

    Likewise he spoke harshly about Pakistan in India (two countries who don’t get along too well), where he is trying to secure greater business trade with India. Again, more brownie points to Cameron.

    Am I being cynical? Probably, but I don’t think it’s all honesty for the sake of honesty.

  33. @Julian/Billy………….We aren’t used to honest politicians, perhaps this guy is the real deal ?

  34. @ Ken

    Honestly? I’d like to believe it. But, unfortunately, I don’t think that any politicians anywhere, these days, become leaders of parties and heads of states by being honest.

    (And on a cheap, political side-swipe, I think Cameron blew the honesty card with his expenses claims)

  35. @Julian
    “The biggest danger for Labour has always been a Tory leader who would be able to move the Tories to the centre but more importantly keep it there.”

    The most successful Tory leader in recent times was Mrs Thatcher. I don’t think many people would think that she moved the party towards the centre after the Heath years, unless of course Heath himself had taken the party to the left of centre.

    Anyway, this fighting for the centre ground didn’t seem to apply to her. She metaphorically planted her flag and said “Here is where I stand, rally round me!”. In effect, rather than chasing the centre, she moved the centre towards her own position.

  36. If he goes to China and tells them the truth about their human rights record, I’d be impressed.
    Mind you, it would be disastrous for our trade with them.

  37. @PETE B
    That was a long time ago. Times have changed. Far be it for me to give advice to the Tory party, but moving to the right, especially anything resembling Thatcherism, would be a disaster for the Conservatives.
    Mind you, as a Labour supporter I hope more people in the Tory party think like you do. ;)

  38. KEN

    “that won’t go down too well with the Miliband family,”

    Sorry to butt in on a post to Roland-but yes-DM leapt on to the TV saying DC is a “loudmouth” !!

    I agree that he is voicing realism about UK, and pursuing a trading objective through foreign policy. This is all good stuff-we aren’t going to influence anyone if we decline further as a trading nation.

    I do welcomethe “tell it as it is ” stance-but Julian & Billy have a point. What will he say about human rights in China-or the export of Wahhabist Islam by international terror & murder .

  39. ………or the export of Wahhabist Islam by international terror & murder when he is in Saudi.

  40. JULIAN

    “They are slipping to the right already”

    Are they?

    How are they doing that?

  41. @Julian

    I wasn’t saying whether or not I thought Mrs Thatcher was a Good Thing or a Bad Thing (to borrow a phrase from 1066 and All That), but just trying to make the point that some politicians seem to worry too much about the centre ground. A strong enough leader can redefine where that lies.

    It’s a very vague concept anyway. What appears to be the centre ground from the chattering classes in London, might be very different to that perceived by people in Stoke or Cardiff or Burnley.

  42. @ Ken

    I don’t disagree with Cameron over either Gaza or Pakistan, but as Billy points out he does have a bit of a reputation for telling people what they want to hear. It’s the PR man in him, I suppose, but it may become dangerous if he starts offending others – especially over small things.

    Having said that in these cases he’s offended the right people over the right things (the ISI have been out of control for decades), so fair play to him.

  43. @COLIN
    I can’t answer your question without slipping into pointless partisan point scoring.
    Sorry. 8)

  44. Labour would recapture the parliamentary seat of Cardiff North on the basiis of a national Tory lead of under 7% – very little swing being required. Assembly elections are less easy to assess given the much lower turnout and the fact that many who do vote tend to be less firm in their party alleigance.. Nevertheless , there has to be a fair chance that by next May Labour will enjoy a clear lead nationally – if so seats such as this will be very much up for grabs!

  45. @Colin…………Cameron’s refreshing candour, imo, is a result of his upbringing and personal circumstances, I don’t think he is a product of the political culture, so, he could surprise and delight us all by becoming a really significant international statesman.

  46. JULIAN

    @COLIN
    I can’t answer your question without slipping into pointless partisan point scoring.
    Sorry.

    So there is really no point in making the accusation then is there?

    You can describe which policy changes are in your opinion “right wing”, without criticising them. I take it as read from your comment that anything “right wing”-or to be more precise, perceived by you as “right wing”, would not meet with your approval.

    Therefore we have no need to debate such issues-indeed we shouldn’t here.

    My interest is – which of the government’s actions is considered by you to be “right wing”.?

  47. @ Roger Mexico

    “The ISI have been out of control for decades”

    Call me paranoid, but an out of control secret service is exactly the sort of secret service that I wouldn’t want to speak out against. That would strike me as the sort of group that wouldn’t have any compunctions about doing a midnight raid and dressing it up as a terrorist attack

  48. @PETE B
    Good point, well made.
    I suppose I’m thinking more about perception rather than policy. I have been mildly criticised here by posters on the left for stating that DC has taken the Tories to the centre. But I am not discussing policy decisions; it is subjective whether they are left, centre or right. I’m discussing decisions from the political point of view. And from the political point of view, the public perception of DC and the Tories is that they have moved to the centre.
    The cuts are changing that perception, and the perception is that the Tories are slowly slipping to the right (again I’m not discussing whether or not the cuts actually are a move to the right or not).
    This is why they will slip in the polls and the polls will get tighter and tighter.
    All in my humble opinion of course.

  49. KEN @ 8.41pm

    Yes -absolutely.

    He has that easy confidence about him, which his background has given him.

    All the same-his stance will ruffle feathers. Those who follow the “Sir Humphrey” school of foreign affairs vaccillation will jump up & down at every utterance.

  50. @PETE B…………I think that left, right, or centre, is defined by what the private sector can afford to fund. When Labour came to power in ’97 the Treasury gave Gordon the green light to move left, unfortunately he mis-understood the cyclical nature of the World economy and kept on going. Whoops ! Now we can no longer afford left and have to move right, Gordon had it easy, even the Mili’s wouldn’t get the move left message from the treasury again. :-)

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