YouGov’s daily voting intention figures are CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14%. Government approval is back to +5 (41% approve and 36% disapprove), bouncing back from a very tight +2 yesterday.

YouGov also had a new Welsh Assembly poll for ITV Wales out today. Constituency voting intention, with changes from last month, are CON 20%(+1), LAB 40%(-2), LDEM 13%(+1), Plaid 22%(+2). Changes are all within the margin of error, and reflect a consolidation of the great big shifts last month when Labour were up ten points and the Lib Dems down eight.


140 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 42/36/14”

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  1. Steady as she goes.

  2. WML – looks that way.

    Doubt we will see much underlying change now until conference season.

    Have a good summer holiday.

  3. Is it time to put the flag back in the attic ?

  4. Wooly

    “steady as she goes”
    That’s what the captain of the titanic said…

  5. @WAYNE – “Is it time to put the flag back in the attic ?”
    Obviously not in Wales. The valleys will be bedecked in swathes of red if these polls are anything to go by.

  6. Linking back to a previous thread, someone was wondering whether Labour was being a bit complacent as they were doinf surprisingly well in the polls. In my experience, this is not the case – wherever we lost seats CLPs are being encouraged to examine the reasons and learn lessons. Whilst most Labour activists now acknowledge that GB lost votes and seats, more than half of Labour’s losses would have probably still been losses even if DM had successfully joined in the Hoon attempted coup.

  7. Labour must keep up the good fight

  8. Absolutely no chance of complacency from us in the Labour Party. That would indeed be a grave error. We have to convince the electorate of our case.

    This poll will steady nerves in the Conservative Party somewhat. I tend to agree with Paul H-J. There won’t be any dramatic changes until the conference season, though Labour will be keen to keep the Tory lead down below 7 if possible.

  9. The polls are almost looking like the 1979 general election result at the moment.

  10. @julian gilbert

    “Wales” and “The Valleys” are not synonyms. Worse, the valleys are too tightly delimited to serve as a synechdoche for the whole of Wales: it’s like using “the Home Counties” as a synonym for “England”.

    Regards, Martyn

  11. I will examine the data for this poll and give a professional view later this evening.
    Exciting Times!!

  12. @WAYNE
    Wow, I can hardly wait.

  13. [Snipped – AW]

  14. @MARTYN
    I have no idea what your own politics are Martyn, but your very sensible comments in reply to some of the dafter posts are excellent. I cannot keep patience.

  15. @MARTYN -““Wales” and “The Valleys” are not synonyms.”
    Facts, mere facts. If I’d replaced ‘The Valleys’ with ‘Wales’ it would have ruined my near perfect iambic pentameter.
    Dylan Thomas would have understood. :)

  16. Just wondering with that poll will Labour take my home consituency of Cardiff North which the current Tory AM has a 15% majority? I hope not, talking to people round here about it they still voteing Tory because they know Labour would of made cuts too so they ain’t taking any of Labours rubbish.

  17. I live in Cardiff North and I know plenty of people who would like to see the back of him.

  18. Where in Cardiff North are you from. Im in Tongwynlais which is Jonathans home village, we all know the family well and would hate to see the back of him. We will all be voteing to keep him in thats for sure along with alot of Whitchurch. We were glad to see the back of Labour this year in Cardiff North, now there is no Labour representation in the whole consituency not even a Labour Councillor in 1997 Labour won 54% of the vote here. I don’t believe Labour will win here for a long time.

  19. The only reason Julie Morgan did so well here (she lost her seat but by only 194 votes) in Cardiff North this year was because she was a very populer MP, voters voted for her even though she was Labour and now shes gone the Labour vote will plummit here. It’s the most affulant area in Wales, this is Conservative land.

  20. @Richard

    I’m not sure how “194 vote majority” at the last election, equates to “this is Conservative land”, considering the current polling. Particularly if Julie Morgan stands again.

  21. Are there any figures for the list vote for the Welsh assembly and what this might mean in terms of seats?

  22. Julie won’t stand again shes the ex first ministers wife and they will probably want to setle down now, he retired last year Im sure she wouldnt to stand in 5 years, she’ll be involved but she wont stand. As I said Julie was a highly populer MP and the campaign from Labour to try and keep this seat was crazy, Labour had a massive campaign here they bought many of the labour cabinet to the door step in Cardiff North and spent a huge amount of money, my parents who have voted Tory all their lifes were considering voteing for her, not for labour but for her but they wanted to get shot of Gordon Brown and the Labour team, if Gordon Brown was not the leader and there was a new cabinet, Labour might of got our vote thanks to Julie. Now shes gone you got no chance. Jonathan Morgan AM has a 15% Majority so I can’t see him loosing his seat despite the GE result.

  23. Richard
    I once went near Cardiff North on my way somewhere. Does that give me any more right to predict elections there than you and your friends down the pub?

    I thought we’d done away with ‘people I speak to’ comments.

  24. Jay before 2007 Labour held the majority of the council seats in Cardiff North, had the Parliamentry seat and the Assembly seat. In 2010 Conservatives have taken every single Labour council seat giving the Conservatives 17 councillors, Lib Dems5 and Independants 3, Labour a big fat 0. The AM has a large majority in the Assembly seat and the Conservatives beat a very populer MP who had 54% of the vote at one point. This is firmly a Tory seat now. It has no Labour rep thats why I said its Conservative land and I can’t see Mr Morgan loosing his seat, his grandfather was the longest serving councillor in Cardiff, his mother is a very populer councillor in Tongwynlais&Whitchurch who really does put her foot out for the people of the area and Jonathan is a very populer and young AM.

  25. Wooly, Im not predicting the election, I wanted to know what the poll would mean for Cardiff North that was a question but I personally after talking to neighbours ect think that the Tories will do well here and won’t loose their seat, I can see the 15% majority being reduced some what but he wont loose his seat.

  26. Richard
    That is much better evidence but talking to neighbours really isn’t a reliable poll, you have to believe me – we don’t want Anthony out of a job!!

  27. re. polling the people we speak to.
    Most people I speak to have never heard of Cardiff North (I’m in Poland at the moment) so does that mean it doesn’t exist? ;)

  28. http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/welsh-politics/welsh-politics-news/2010/07/29/assembly-powers-yes-vote-dips-in-latest-poll-91466-26952887/

    Acording to this Conservatives would keep all their seats. But I believe they will gain the Vale Of Glamorgam and the Brecon Seat bringing their total number of seats to 15

  29. …Looks like the tories are still slightly ahead, but nothing compared to Tony Blair’s victory in 1997.
    the lib dems have declind a lot since the last election, not surprising from what they’ve done.
    And labour are only 5-6 behind so not a too bigger gap and the tories aren’t really cimbing that high, nuff too form a government on their own.
    And many don’t think this coalition will last, with the tax rises and savage spending cuts, no one will put the tories on a all time high regarding opinion polls.
    We better sit tight and see what the reaction will be once a new labour leader gets elected, that mite put them higher and put them in front of the tories, that would be nice.

  30. I wonder why the people in South Wales who voted Tory, voted Tory. I wonder why people anywhere voted Tory. Did many of them think that life would get better eventually, or immediately ? Or, did they think the most important thing was to pay the debt down before we fell apart like Greece. What did the public think Cameron has to offer that one of Labours young guns has not? Or were they just afraid of Brown going on and on? Why after 3 months are a few more turning to Labour than did at the GE? Are the public bloody crazy, or is it me?

  31. @Richard

    Even if the conservatives did gain those two seats, which on these figures looks unlikely, theres surely a chance that they’d lose at least one on the corresponding region vote to balance it?

    These figures for the constituency vote compared to 2007 would have Cons and Libs both down 2%, PC staying pretty level and Labour up about 8% mainly at the expense of others. Thus Labour look the most likely to gain.

  32. The Vale Of Glamorgan is sure to be a Tory Gain, it just won the GE seat with a fairly large majority.

  33. It’s good to see that Richard isn’t allowing a small thing like the passage of time, the swing of pendulums or opinion polls to distract him from his confident and unfounded assertions.

  34. Richard – welcome to the site, but you may want to check out the comments policy linked above the comments box*. I’ve had to moderate a couple of your that comments really aren’t the sort of thing this blog is for.

    (*now newly updated, so there’s a proper one for the polling part of the site).

  35. Richard, I live in Whitchurch. There are plenty of reds here. As for rolling out the big guns wasn’t Ken Clarke sent here. I believe he was photographed in the bakers.

  36. I see the row between Osborne and Fox is back again over Trident today. I never thought I’d see the headline “George Osborne: Trident is not exempt from budget cuts”

    Surely this must have something to do with LibDem influence, and if so, then good for them. It does seem from stories like this that the cabinet are more keen to work with the Libs than with the Tory right and IMO that can only be a good thing.

  37. @Roland

    I know our political views are very different, but I do find the constant refrain from the Tories that Britain is going the way of Greece to be very wearisome. Our economy ain’t like Greece’s. It’s not going the way of Greece. I think to insist otherwise is appears unpatriotic. This attitude surprises me as I thought ‘love of our country’ was in the Conservative DNA.

  38. @Anthony

    Just reread the comments’ policy. I do try to keep within it. Honestly! :-(

  39. Cardiff North is one of a considerable number of seats I have lived in (including Cardiff Central and Cardiff West). Richard’s analysis looks fairly on the mark to me. Seats demographically similar to Cardiff North but in England are usually reasonably comfortably Conservative.

    Much of the public sector, particularly the civil service, has become grossly unproductive. ConDem action to cut the numbers may be necessary, but without parrallel action to encourage private sector job creation I fear they may lead to “interesting times”. Particularly when one adds on top the unfairness and unsustainability of public sector pension provisions. Goodness knows what the consequences will be in terms of voting intentions.

    I am surprised this latest Welsh poll does not show more of a rise in support for Plaid, as they are associated neither with ConDem planned cuts or the failures of the recent Westminster Labour Government. Perhaps one reason is that now devolution, and partiy for the Welsh language, has been largely achieved Plaid has not much of an obvious reason for existence beyond being an alternative regional government, and now also has the problems of defending actions whilst in regional power.

  40. I think we often give politicians, of any colour, too much credence when it comes to macro-economics. They have a lot of influence on micro-economic decisions, the ones which often affect people’s everyday lives, it’s true, but the ups and downs of global booms and recessions are surely out of their hands mostly.
    One interesting question regarding this. Poland was the only EU country to escape recession. Why was that?
    Maybe it was because it was darn hard to get a mortgage there. While other ‘more developed’ countries were handing out credit left right and centre, in old-fashioned Poland you had to fill out great reams of forms, background checks and red tape before they’d even consider you for the smallest loan.
    Therefore their banks were in pretty good shape, they avoided the worst of the credit crisis and the economy didn’t suffer as a result.
    I’m not sure they can thank the politicians for that.

  41. I wonder if the tories will gain montgomyshire from the lib dems, as the tories took the seat from them in the general election.

  42. Are not some our posts condescending in the extreme? It is assumed that “TORY CUTS” are some kind of shock to the British electorate. Now the dastardly plan unfolds, the people recognise they have been had. Once the Tories came off of their heir to Blair horlicks, cuts and big ones were inevitable, and they said so. No surprise then that cuts in public spending are the medicine Dr Osborne proscribes.
    Do Labour supporters think the floating voter is thick?

  43. @ Roland Haines

    re british voters being thick

    I think the briefest of glances at the BBC’s Have Your Say forums would conclude that argument decisively ;)

  44. @ VALERIE
    Thank you for raising the issue of my love of country.
    Profit is the only thing I love.

  45. @BILLY
    And are you a Labour supporter Billy.

  46. @Roland

    No, floating voters aren’t thick. They didn’t vote in sufficient numbers for the Tories to win the GE. They knew cuts were coming whoever gained power. Darling had outlined a programme of cuts which would come into play next year once the economic recovery was in place. The Lib Dems were also against cutting too quickly and too deeply.

    The Coalition’s fiscal policy is not what the floaters voted for.

  47. @ Roland

    I’m a Liberal Democrat.

    And shouldn’t that be a question mark not a full stop ;)

  48. Evening All,
    I have now completed a thorough review of this weeks polls. In my professional opinion methodology / weighting are acceptable. Recent small Labour increase possibly due to them being leaderless!(nothing new then!).. I expect to see normal service resumed soon ie.43/30/18

  49. @BILLY
    Question Mark yourself instead of that stupid face.

  50. @ Roland and Valerie

    Re: Cuts and people knowing what was coming

    I think you’re both making a rather large assumption in your analyses of people here. You both seem to be presuming that when rhetoric about cuts was being bandied about, people actually knew what that meant. As an example how many times do you see headlines reading “hundreds of thousands of jobs set to be lost” or “companies going to sack people to save money” and think “well it’ll happen to somebody else?” Forgetting that we’re all ‘somebody else’ to somebody else.

    Hence when people see things like ‘big juicy cuts’ are needed, they don’t think too much about it – as they don’t fully understand what it means. They’re not stupid (well not all of them) but they simply don’t comprehend what it means. Even now – when people know the scale of the cuts – it’s hard to imagine what it will actually do, or what they will manifest as. It is important to remember, though, that while every party was saying cuts would be necessary, none of them really spelt out what cuts they would make or how it would affect people.

    I’d argue that the change in some attitudes, from thumbs up for ‘big juicy cuts’ to ‘on yer bike mate’ has something to do with the scale of what they are going to be, and the reality of what it means coming home. Add to that, there have been better than expected growth figures so it’s also possible that people are thinking ‘well maybe things aren’t as bad as we thought/were told’. You have to remember that people (especially floating voters) tend, in things political and economic, to move in herds i.e. they go with what the popular consensus appears to be.

    I would go into this in more depth, and use it to explain why this contributed to the Conservatives doing well, Labour bouncing back from the death and the Lib Dems surge that disappeared, but I think this post is long and boring enough as it is. Apologies if I’ve wasted your time.

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