Ipsos MORI have published their monthly politial monitor for Reuters. The topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(+1), LAB 38%(+7), LDEM 14%(-5). I always urge some amount of caution with great big shifts in support, but in this case we have already seen Labour increasing their support into the mid 30s and the Lib Dems dropping into the mid-teens with YouGov’s daily polling, so while it’s not to the same degree (this is the smallest Conservative lead any poll since the election has shown), the trends are in the same direction.


241 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – 40/38/14”

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  1. @JULIAN GILBERT
    If you had said earlier that you use any poll that puts Labour in 2nd place, as an excuse to get the Scotch out, I would have saved my vile Tory sarcasm and joined you.

  2. h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/27/shadow-cabinet-to-oppose-voting-reform-bill

    Missed this until now

  3. Julian wrote
    ‘Talking of which, I haven’t heard the terms ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Tories for a long time.’

    On a point of fact, the attempt to portray right-er wing Tories as ‘drys’ was misplaced. Margaret Thatcher reference to ‘wet’ was to people with no backbone or courage in implementing right wing policies. The correct opposite term to ‘wet’ is ‘courageous’.

    However the people concerned did not like being called cowards, especially by a woman, and invented this ludicrous and inappropriate soubriquet of ‘drys’.

  4. I make that Con/Lib 314
    Lab/Con 308

    On the AV bill.

    7 others needed then.

  5. Sue
    Thanks for that. Isn’t it amazing? In 1997, 2001 and 2205 County Council elections were held on the same day as the general election without a smidgen of opposition from either Con or Lab. Just in May we had many other local elections on the same day as the GE – again, no opposition.

    What price credibility?

  6. er 2005!

  7. Julian

    One of the interesting things about the current Tory party is the range of views within it. They don’t even split into left/right or wet/dry groups in a predictable manner. I suspect this is because they have been left a considerable amount of latitude, providing they don’t mention the E(urope) word. Paradoxically this may lead to government defeats, but also makes Cameron safer. Providing public support doesn’t completely and permanently collapse, there’s no one great cause dissident MPs can rally round.

    Labour by contrast has been so tightly disciplined for so long that they seem to have forgotten what the original reason for it was. Very few of the endless Cabinet rows were actually about anything. I can think of some where Brown tried to slow down some of Blair’s more extreme “reforms”, but on the whole the rows resembled the teenage tantrums of Hollyoaks.

  8. To be fair Woolly, the Lab argument seems to be that they can’t fight against the Libs in their constituencies and with them on AV. At least their saying they will be fighting for AV

  9. (Hope you don’t mind the Woolly, but people do call me Sue and WoollyMindedLiberal is just too typee for me)

  10. @ROLAND
    Your vile Tory sarcasm and Wayne’s magnificent self-glorification are two of the most entertaining things about this site. 8)

  11. Sue
    WML is shorter (I’m baldy so the woolly is received with puzzlement). I changed from Howard hoping to set an example to Colin, Collin and Colin Green, whom I felt made life difficult for us (not the latter, if he is one of the first two!!)..

  12. Interesting alternative on Labour’s popularity and where it might go when they have a leader plus view of Peter Kellner saying the honeymoon is over

    see

    h t tp://marbury.typepad.com/marbury/2010/07/state-of-the-nation.html

    Perhaps 79 is a better reference point than 97

  13. Ahhhh, Howard.

    Glad it’s you :)

    Perhaps I shall just address you as ‘H’ from now on just to really confuse everyone ;)

  14. @Roger Mexico

    “One of the interesting things about the current Tory party is the range of views within it”

    True only if you are referring to the PCP IMHO- gerrymandered to produce Cameron-Clones in the new 2010 intake with Blairite deftness. Leading to a more diverse (but a right wing diversity) parliamentary party.

    I would suggest that the situation is different though out in the associations- with a greater uniformity of paleo Thatcherite authoritarian opinion. Sure you will have lost some of the hardliners to UKIP/BNP etc. The degree of loss from your right flank we will see in the elections next May- but not all will have gone to be replaced by ex LD orange bookers and metrosexuals who like the individualist anti state rhetoric. For example there will always be hard right wingers like @roland and @ken who won’t jump ship (possibly even if David Davis aspersions were true).

    But the elections in May 2010 will settle a lot of ‘first year report card’ arguments on here. Personally I can’t wait- though I have no doubt that those on here who put such faith in local election results over the last couple of years will suddenly decide they are irrelevant (‘only election that matters not for another 4 years by which time there will be zero unemployment 20% GDP a liberal nirvana with no bossy busy bodies etc etc ad nauseam); as they will repeat the ‘labour heartlands’ mantra when spanked in Scotland and Wales…

    ;-)

  15. Sue
    Dealing with your point, it is symptomatic of the Labour Party’s inability to come to terms with modern government coalition agreements (and of course those right wing tory back benchers too). Had Labour managed a few more seats we would be in the same position so try that mental exercise and ask how you would have viewed this banal shadow cabinet unprincipled decision, were it Cameron’s.

    I have more respect for Jack Straw but he’s been too long in the middle of it all – pity, he is really a liberal.

  16. Richard Dawson – “We are slower to hope, and quicker to dismiss;” – No, we just didn’t believe in anything at all this time.

  17. The polls all seem to say that the LibDem vote is collasping at a time when the coalition is bound to be at its most popular.

    It may be that the elecotorate thinks like most of us who say then can’t readily tell what the Lib bring to this new conservative government OUTSIDE a referendum on AV which was really never a Lib Dem preferred option anyway.

    Mr Clegg was shouting at how bad the ecomony was being the justification for the change of ecomomic policies now that the deficit is lower growth higher and retail sales up, will this provide an opportunity to change his mind back?

    At then end of the day the last twice the Liberals got into bed with the conservative party it was Labour and the Conservatives who benefited. How ironic as Clegg never did any history…they didn’t have PMQs in the 1920s…that the third time may not seem so lucky. Of course if the conservatives don’t fight sitting LibDem MPS then they’ve all but joined the Conservative party making the argument for AV redundant.

    Of course the rest of the LibDem party may not feel quite the same as Mr Clegg….

    Nor would I want to bet too much on this Parliament lasting 5 years…despite what anyone says…

  18. @WML

    “banal shadow cabinet unprincipled decision”

    Oh come off it- I posted on this already so I am simply going to paste it:

    The reason for the Labour commitment to vote against the bill is the boundary gerry, er, redrawing and the 10% reduction in seats.

    For the simple reason that Labours vote is very efficiently concentrated in its winnable seats so enlargement of boundaries is possibly going to cost them seats: though not as many as the Tories on here dream about.

    I am not sure how the loss of this bill- for anti AV reasons on the Tory rebel side and anti the boundary and seat reductions on the labour side- can play well either for Clegg or for Cameron.

    I am not sure whether the coalition can decouple the boundary/ seat elements from the electoral system proposals without causing significant trouble within the perspective party memberships.

    I do think however that a separate AV referendum (held on its own on a special date)- if it happens- will be more likely victorious.

    Because that campaign would be fought with the full support of the post new labour leadership- a factor that will swing it: posing some questions for the Lib Dems :-)

  19. Labour seem to have discovered a firm launching off point for their attack on the coalition with their “We support AV, but not this Bill” line. (Some specific analysis of that on my own blog.)

    At this point, with the pressures on the coalition, and the polling outlook, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few alienated Lib Dem MPs are considering crossing the aisle if the coalition crumbles. They might like their chances of being re-elected as a Labour MP better than a Lib Dem one.

  20. WML (H) – A few hours on Facebook reveals a Labour grassroots who are horrified and disgusted by the budget and subsequent cuts announcements.

    The Labour movement is galvanised in a way I’ve never seen in my entire time as a politico.

    On this site, it is hard to give an accurate reflection of how Labour members and actvists feel (and many many LibDems who now post on sites like “Nobody Likes a Tory”, now with 23,000 members). You all know I’m a leftie, so shouts of “partisan” are understandable, but my posts always try to be honest. It is not silly tribalism, it is a genuine terror that all the good done by their party (and there was a lot of good) will be destroyed. There is a real fear of the effect all of this will have on the economy and the millions of jobs that will surely be lost.

    There is no petty point scoring involved for them in wanting this coalition to be over as quickly as possible.

    I say this not to fly the red flag, but to try to convey the real passion many Reds feel at the moment.

  21. One of the joys of the forthcoming months will be the sight of politicians making complete fools of themselves over the Voting Reform Bill.

    We’ve already had the assertion that the Scots, though capable of dealing with four completely different electoral systems, will be reduced to gibbering incompetence by a Yes/No question. Now some Labour politicians are having fits because they might agree on some topic with other politicians and disagree with them on others. Apparently the electorate are too thick to handle this concept.

    Expect more tying-oneself-in-knots to follow.

  22. Rob S
    Yes but to oppose the whole bill as opposed to clauses (if it is true, we do not have official announcement yet do we?) is unprincipled and will be seen as such.

    Never mind, I am more interested how David Miliband (for surely it will be he) behaves when he gets to 43%. As someone else posted earlier, he will need to keep a door open to a Lab LibDem coaltion unless he is less clever than I know him to be.

  23. @WML

    “Never mind, I am more interested how David Miliband (for surely it will be he) behaves when he gets to 43%. As someone else posted earlier, he will need to keep a door open to a Lab LibDem coaltion unless he is less clever than I know him to be”

    You can watch the Fabian leadership hustings (at least and maybe others) online.

    See what he says about ‘fellow progressives’ and ‘proportional voting’ in that as this is the best indication (given the coolness towards such issues from some of the other candidates) we have. All else is conjecture.

    The bill as it stands has to be defeated as its principal focus are the non AV elements. It has to be defeated to send a political message and rightly so.

    What should happen- Mr Clegg should propose another bill that is only on AV.

    That IMHO would be supported by the shadow cabinet whether it was proposing the same or a different day of voting.

  24. @Wolly

    Well, for a start this cabinet announcement means there is consensus amongst the leadership candidates that “Labour supports AV”, pretty clear message to the LibDems there.

  25. Rob S

    Actually I was thinking less of the Massed Metrosexuals of Notting Hill, than of the other pre-existing half of the parliamentary party. Someone like Davis may be hard right on most topics but also a civil libertarian. But I suspect a lot of the new boys and girls may surprise us as well – they may not have had the individualism knocked out of them by endless constituency interview panels.

    Of course at the moment there is near unanimity about economic matters and that will help. How long it will survive the actual cuts – especially among those with a LG background – is something else.

    I suspect that the Conservative party in the country has changed a bit as well. Thatcher, like Blair after her, did a splendid job of reducing party membership to the self-interested; and demography (or to be less polite: death) has since done a lot more. New recruits in Cameron’s half-decade have probably ended up with more power more quickly than they imagined.

    Of course next year’s locals will provide more amusement as parties go through the usual weary excuses. But remember the astonishing successes in LG that Labour had without winning the next General Election. That is of course if the parties can find anyone prepared to actually stand for the Councils – I’m not sure I would with what is coming.

  26. @Jay
    “Well, for a start this cabinet announcement means there is consensus amongst the leadership candidates that “Labour supports AV”, pretty clear message to the LibDems there.”

    My reading is that Labour supports an Av referendum – not necessarily AV.

    The salient point of the Guardian article:
    “Labour claims the boundary reforms would benefit the Tories so much that the Labour party would find it impossible to win a general election again.”

    That is why Labour are voting against the bill. The Tory rebels of course oppose holding an AV referendum, but presumably are in favour of equalization of consttituency sizes. Whether all the rebels would vote with Labour to throw out the whole bill seems to me to be unlikely. I think only Wayne wants an early election!

  27. George Gardner – Sorry if my post offended.

  28. @Johnty

    Not all the Tories will be supporting the boundary changes. While it benefits the party, a lot of individual Tory MPs will lose their seats. And some are actually in the ‘problem seats’ like the Isle of Wight.

  29. Johnty – dead right I reckon LP will allow individuals to support and campaign for Yes or No with no party line.
    The referendum on AV (if only AV) has to be supported as it was in the manifesto.
    Richard – agree about ’79 but LP will not lurch to the left this time and a Galtieri is unlikely.
    Big difference is of course the third party situation

  30. @ Wayne

    Before getting too excited and having accidental pools of water on the floor to contend with… Wait for a few more polls.
    ———————————————-
    Reds are getting out their mops in anticipation of those future polls, Wayne. Exciting times. ;-)

  31. @Jay
    I did say I wondered whether all “all the rebels” would be prepared to vote against the bill. My reading is that they will all vote for an amendment to change the date and maybe to put in a threshold, but I suspect fewer would vote against the whole bill.

    As for your other point about the message Labour is sending re AV. I doubt whether any supporter of electoral reform will put too much trust in anything coming from Labour on electoral reform – certainly not while people like Jack Straw are around.

  32. JOHNTY,

    I read the said article on the Guardian site. The Tory rebels are more mouthpieces than masters and will vote with the rest of the party and the Lib-Dems simply to push Labour between a rock and a hard place. Hedging a guess, the 6 SNP MPs will vote for any form of PR despite their dis-enchantment regarding the proposed date, especially if boundary re-works strenghthen their chances of gaining. Cameron is aware that his party is a dead duck in Scotland and would be happy to see anybody gaining up there at the expense of Labour, hence I’d expect Salmond to be consulted re. boundary alterations etc.

    Sue Marsh,
    Thanks. No disrespect was intended.

  33. ” I doubt whether any supporter of electoral reform will put too much trust in anything coming from Labour on electoral reform – certainly not while people like Jack Straw are around.”

    Yep.

    “Expect more tying-oneself-in-knots to follow.”

    aka principled opposition ;-)

  34. JOHNTY
    “I think only Wayne wants an early election!”

    How absolutely double dare you !
    I am far to busy to worry about elections at present. I am using my political intelligence to prepare my presentation to the university later this year (AV vs FPTP vs STV vs AV+)
    I read some of the comments on this site Re. the different types of voting system and almost wet myself with laughter at peoples lack of understanding… Of course I have no problem myself having the benefit of superb political intelligence, gravitas and candour. …

    Bye for now … quill in hand … mind bursting with ideas…history to make !!
    No rest for the chosen one!

  35. Amber Star

    “Reds are getting out their mops in anticipation of those future polls”

    Get the mops out by all means, if only for the exercise…don’t bother with a bucket though, a small saucer will suffice !

  36. @ Wayne

    ;-)

  37. Cameron on Gaza; I might now vote Tory.

  38. Jack – I know!! A post of mine from earlier…..

    “very well done to DC today for getting tough with Merkel/Sarkosy over Turkey’s integration into the EU. They’ve hedged on this for way too long, and given the remarkable economic growth in Turkey, surely Europe should be welcoming them with open arms. That they don’t might start to look like racism….
    On Foreign affairs so far, I like Cameron very much.”

  39. Jack – realise that didn’t really make sense. I meant, two good statements, I liked them both.

  40. “I am using my political intelligence to prepare my presentation to the university later this year (AV vs FPTP vs STV vs AV+) Bye for now … quill in hand … mind bursting with ideas…history to make !! No rest for the chosen one!”

    Crikey another doctoral student- good luck to you in the current and near-future climate ;-)

  41. Latest Yougov
    42-37-14

  42. Latest Yougov
    42-37-14

    Colin/ Ken/ Roland/ Wayne etc ???????

  43. Buckets at the ready!!

  44. @Rob Sheffield
    Polls have not moved much since about 22 June – all margin of error stuff . What is different is the Government approval – now at its lowest since the election.

  45. Ron,

    Best to wait for 4 or 5 polls to see if there is any reason to get the Labour flag out of the attic!.. Come to think about it, is that where we put it back then?… The last time it was raised ..

  46. Well this poll didn’t really look like a true outlier, what with the preceding ICM poll, and now YouGov show a smaller Tory lead too. I think that, at this particular moment, the Tory lead is probably genuinely smaller over Labour. The question is of course whether this will last. Certainly Labour’s share of the vote in the Ipsos & YouGov polls are encouraging from a dastardly Red point of view.

    Nice to see your sarcasm Roland, reminiscent of Doug (or was it Dinsdale) Piranha. :)

  47. Ron

    Another factor to remember is that it is holiday season. While these surveys were being undertaken, rich Tory voters would be away on their yaughts scrubbing the decks with vintage bollinger. Labour voters would be nestled under the duvet, waiting for eastenders to start, before they get up !

  48. Ron,

    Calm down and digest the figures properly .. I know it’s difficult to believe.. Labour on 38 (once in a blue moon)
    I will let you have some more of my superb political intelligence by suggesting that YOU ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS!

  49. Wayne

    “The beginning of a trend is never discernible at the time…” Extra credit for the citation.

    Now please go back to your PHD bedsit :-)

  50. After the laughable attempts of GB to run the country and his party I think the left leaners and floaters do prefer Labour leaderless. as long as all five candidates’ supporters are unified by anti Toryism/coalition and don’t yet fully despise each other then lab polling will remain strong. Once any of the candidates win ( and IMHO the same will apply whoever wins as there is no unifying candidate that the whole party will back) then I suspect lab will still remain behind the Tories.
    As a blue I can confess to preferring a rudderless ship before some of the winners of tory leadership elections. I stil wake up sweating about ‘don’t underestimate the quiet man’ (eh?) or worse the vocal strangulation of ‘Derek Lewis” by the ex hon member for Folkestone…….

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