Ipsos MORI have published their monthly politial monitor for Reuters. The topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(+1), LAB 38%(+7), LDEM 14%(-5). I always urge some amount of caution with great big shifts in support, but in this case we have already seen Labour increasing their support into the mid 30s and the Lib Dems dropping into the mid-teens with YouGov’s daily polling, so while it’s not to the same degree (this is the smallest Conservative lead any poll since the election has shown), the trends are in the same direction.


241 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – 40/38/14”

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  1. I like it, I must confess ;)

  2. Can I be first to say ATTAD. ;)

  3. What a fabulous result, at last the public are seeing Labour have the answers, despite the evidence of the last 13 years. How will the broke-back coalition deal with this heart warming endorsement of the peoples party and all this without a leader.

  4. Average of three polls: this one, with yesterdays monthly ICM and the overnight YG daily are

    Con 40
    Lab 35.5
    LD 16

    Electoral calculus projects

    Con 307 (= 20 gains and 20 losses: all gains are from Lib Dems….)
    Lab 291 (+33)
    LD 25 (-32)
    OTH 9 (=)
    GRN 0 (-1)

    The key movement of the last two and a half months is the collapse of the Lib Dems. That at a time of government honeymoon before (arguably) ideological spending cuts impact upon quality of service provision, threaten a double dip and end up in mass sackings in both public and private sectors. These realities will eat into the Conservative 38-42 range as long as the post new labour leadership sets out a detailed programme rather than adopting the Cameron opposition strategy of vagueness and niceness.

    But undoubtedly the key (and astonishing) phenomenon of the moment is this lib dem meltdown.

    As Steve Richards in the Independent argues:

    “The most important division in the coming months or years is not between Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, nor between Cameron and the right of his party, but between Clegg’s deeply-held convictions and those, also sincerely believed, held by a growing element in his own party. “

  5. On a very quick scan, I don’t believe Lab have been on 38 since 2007

  6. Germany, SPD: 10 points up (32-33) from last GE of Sept. 2009 (23). SPD+Greens now near 50% mark, just unthinkable some months ago.
    France: PS: Presidential election poll, Martine Aubry 30%, 14 points up from European Election 2009 (16%), 52% at second round.
    Ireland: Labour between 24 and 32, all time high.
    First place for Social Democrats in Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and French-speaking Belgium according to all polls.
    The reds are back!

  7. @Virgilio

    “The reds are back!”

    Not surprising and to be welcomed: but to keep this up each SD party needs to set out clear policies for it’s particular context.

    I think most- if not all- will (including post new Labour).

    @Sue M

    “On a very quick scan, I don’t believe Lab have been on 38 since 2007”

    Thanks- I was just wondering that myself: I estimated the 2008 ‘Brown blip’- so you have made me very happy as it is even better than I thought :-)

  8. Virgilio – I love your posts too!!!

    Even Roland is seeing the light, isn’t it remarkable? ;)

  9. This one off poll which despite AWs usual caveat is causing palpitations to a point that Virgillo thinks the Soviets are back. It gives the Coailition 54 Labour 38. Todays other poll gives the Coalition 57 Labour 34. Not quite 1945 or 1997 is it gang. Therefore, if there was an election tomorrow based on todays polls, you would loose. However, there will not be an election tomorrow, or the day after that, so I should discuss prisons or something. By the way Virgillo, I personally could not care less what Europe votes or thinks about anything.

  10. Great news for Labour…………..they are more popular without a leader. My guess is that they will experience a dip in the polls once the leader is chosen, 4 yrs in opposition will be a big test of unity.
    Will Miliband have enough bottle to facedown the Balls faction, and a hostile media, only time will tell, but the omens are not good, he should have taken the plunge when Brown was wobbling.

  11. Mammoth result for Labour but –
    Sue wrote:
    I think Labour undoubtedly lost it’s way on this kind of issue (treatment of refugees) at the end of 13 long years in power. We were far too concerned with what the Daily Fail thought and not with what was right.’

    The present polling will not enable a new Labour leader to change tack. The sad truth that you have exposed Sue, is that David M will think that faux rightwingism is OK.

    Amber, thanks for explanation of your seats analysis – awe and respect! (See, I am into all the latest technical terms).

  12. @wooley minded person

    “David M will think that faux rightwingism is OK.”

    As opposed to the red meat right wingism of Clegg ;-)

    D Miliband is the best of the post new labour leadership candidate: closely followed by AB and EB.

    Its apposite to point out in advance as well that he will also be at the helm of what is going to be a young and extremely talented shadow front bench.

    You can argue about being tied/ tarring with the brush of the past blah blah blah and sure we tried to remind people about Cameron advising Lamont on Black Wednesday etc etc.

    But that does not work. At elections people are thinking about/ voting upon what the *current* government has done and what they want from the future.

    Sorry about that mate.

  13. @Rob Sheffield……………Unfortunately, as we all know, the Labour party has a genetic pre-disposition to spend time gnawing at its own entrails, the idea that Ed Balls won’t be eyeing the main chance in a couple of years time is naive, he and his buddies will appear to be inside the tent, but think of the previous incumbents.
    The honeymoon period after election will never be the same, people remember the last one, nasty divorce.
    By the way, if I am your god man, show a bit of deference. :-)

  14. Rob Sheffield

    If the last election taught us anything, it’s that uniform swing doesn’t always happen. Of course voters in Lib Dem constituencies may be crying out for Bigger Cuts Now and switch, but somehow I doubt it.

    Given the caution we used to express over bank holiday polling, maybe similar reservations should be extended to the summer holidays to prevent over-heating in certain commentators. :)

    Ken & Rob

    We should never underestimate to capacity of the Labour Party establishment for pointless internecine squabbling. Maybe Diane Abbott should win: they all seem to hate her equally so she could keep the factions in balance.

    Failing that I still fancy Alistair Darling turning up on a stage strewn with more bodies than the last act of Hamlet and then doing a Fortinbras.

    Anthony

    I don’t know if you saw my comment on the AV referendum thread about the unweighted “Others” figures. Looking in more detail the change seems to have happened the weekend of 3-4 July when the use of more elaborate social class weighting also came in (according to the weightings sheet). Before then the Others were consistently getting about 5-6% of the raw sample; afterwards around 11-12%. There is no effect on the final VI figures because the weighting adjustment also changed – effectively from dividing by 1.7-ish to dividing by 3.5-ish.

    I have no idea what caused this – unless YouGov pre-weight the sample they send the questionnaires out to by social class etc, rather than just randomly.

    Incidentally I’m assuming the changed social class breakdown happened when the weightings sheet says it did, but the sheet also says the top age range is 55+ (the cross-heads altered to 60+ back in June). Don’t feel bad about this as ICM are still claiming that they adjust everything to the 2005 election! (Technically I reckon 16% of it still is mind you). Am I the only person sad enough to read the methodology? :(

  15. @roger mexico

    “We should never underestimate to capacity of the Labour Party establishment for pointless internecine squabbling.”

    Steve Richards said it right

    ““The most important division in the coming months or years is not between Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, nor between Cameron and the right of his party, but between Clegg’s deeply-held convictions and those, also sincerely believed, held by a growing element in his own party. “

    @Ken

    You *will* be my God if you (and your ilk) continue to be THIS complacent ;-)

  16. @Ken

    Damn- here is the Spectator blog just now:

    ” Ipsos-MORI’s July political poll will make uncomfortable reading for the coalition as the summer break looms. It has the Tories on 40 percent, Labour on 38 percent and the Lib Dems on 14 percent . It is just one poll – the Tory lead is usually around 7 points – but the Lib Dems’ crisis is real enough. George Eaton’s spot on when he says that Labour’s resurgence is ‘impressive’. The worry is that cuts have not yet been felt, and that the Lib Dem position can only get worse.

    The coalition has all sorts of possible plans to protect the Lib Dems. With growth as it is, Osborne could be persuaded to limit cuts. The parties are seeking a closer political union by attacking Labour’s position on the deficit. However, an electoral union will likely be the last resort. ”

    Like I said- key to the 2011 battle is the post new labour leadership setting out their own clamer (and economically more literate) plans to reduce the deficit at a slower pace and over a longer time frame. Thats an absolute election winner. Whether the election is in 2012 (as I predict) or later.

  17. Blimey, a few reds only have to say they like a poll and BAM!!

    But come on! It’s just ten weeks into a new government, Labour don’t even have a leader and they just lost an election after 13 years in power, so 38 is at least worth comment!!

    I have another sad tale for you all. Remember 83?? Remember the longest suicide note? Remember Foot and then Kinnock?

    We learnt a lesson and we learnt it well. I’m sorry to say, but whoever wins this leadership contest will have the full backing of their competitors. No-one will lurch to the left, no-one will foul up. Because let’s face it, they will be opposing the most severe cuts of all time, a coalition where the junior partner is sinking into oblivion and a Tory right wing on Labour’s side!!!

    No amount of ATTAD will change any of that.

  18. @Roland Haines

    The polling is pretty in line with the overall trend, so it’s hardly a shocking outlier.

    And as people have already pointed out, there is no ‘Coalition Party’ on our ballots. A vote under FPTP, which is what will happen in any early election, is going to be be very punishing towards the Conservative’s ability to lead a coalition with the largest number of seats.

    Unless you suggest the Conservatives are going to propose to the Lib Dems an electoral pact to not contest each other’s seats?

  19. Rob S
    I am aware that DM is genuinely left wing. My point is that it would be a tremendous result for us all if he were to reveal this (ergo my use of ‘faux rightwingism’) and shame the devil. Blair wanted to be left wing but the thought of losing votes via Daily Mail propaganda prevented it.

    Your tribalism (thus misinterpreting my comment) prevents you from seeing the straitjacket in which Labour leaders who want to be elected find themselves. My comment was that I believe this to be unnecessarily self-imposed. I hope that is perhaps now better explained.

  20. @ROGER MEXICO -“We should never underestimate to capacity of the Labour Party establishment for pointless internecine squabbling.”
    True. But judging by history, we can also say;
    We should never underestimate to capacity of the Conservative Party establishment for pointless internecine squabbling.
    And soon to come;
    We should never underestimate to capacity of the Liberal Democrat Party establishment for pointless internecine squabbling.
    Vive La Difference!

  21. @JAY BLANC
    I not have the foggiest notion as to how the next GE will be fought. I certainly would not die of shock if the Tories and a faction of LDs stood together, ie, National Liberals in the 20s and 30s. I am positive Cameron wants this, not to mention certain Liberals. But the point is any GE is a very long way of and this poll proves nothing worth getting bothered about. So many of the pro Labour posters on the site promised a Labour victory in the last GE, you, very much included.
    It did’nt happen and as I said to you the other day, if you doubt who did win, look at the Queens Speech vote.

  22. @WML

    1) “I am aware that DM is genuinely left wing” etc etc

    DM is a social democrat- he is ‘centre left’ and he has made this point often in the debates. I don’t know anyone in my branch who would call DM a ‘left winger’ !

    2) “Your tribalism (thus misinterpreting my comment) prevents you from seeing the straitjacket in which Labour leaders who want to be elected find themselves”

    His policy platform will represent that social democrat perspective and won’t be in a straightjacket- the ‘we have to face the truth; we need a reality check’ won’t be proffered because he is forced to by some mythical Anglo American CIA global government Bilderberg conspiracy.

    He actually *believes* it.

    Rather than calling people partisan/ tribal you would be better off actually getting your facts right.

    Do some reading ;-)

  23. JAY BLANC
    One more thing, I am much happier listening to AWs caveats than your normal anti Tory propaganda whatever the real state of affairs.

  24. Sue

    With the best will in the world, you can’t say that “the full backing of their competitors” has been a feature of the way Labour’s leadership has behaved over the last decade plus. Not unless the words “knife in the” are included. A few ton of instant memoirs, now out and heading for the remainders shelves in six months time, says otherwise.

    I think it’s been both a betrayal of people like yourself and a shameful way of avoiding the real tasks Labour should have been carrying out instead of delegating policy to the editor of the Mail.

  25. Re the Daily Mail and Labour leaders –

    Technically true, except the Daily Mail also hates Cameron, so they could cancel each other out.

  26. Roger – That is true :(

    It always amazed me though, that despite the obvious hostility between the “Triumvirate” Blair and Brown worked together in he top two jobs longer than any other PM and Chancellor in history. I would argue incredibly successfully.

    If this current crop have learnt anything, I think they’ve learnt that all the control and the briefing and the media manipulation is no longer as important.

    It was important in ’97 though.

  27. Good afternoon everyone.

    In my very professional opinion, Anthony is exactly right to urge caution at these big shift in figures.
    Before getting too excited and having accidental pools of water on the floor to contend with… Wait for a few more polls. The Yougov last night is still telling us a 7 point lead exists for the torys!
    We still have more wonderful economic figures to come next quarter do expect to see s tory poll lift off ! .. Exciting tomes sheaf!

  28. @Roland,

    You make some very strange assumptions, and do like to make accusations about bias.

    We can say for sure how any early election will be run. We can even say how elections after a full term will be run, depending on the result of the referendum.

    But what we can’t rule out is an early election! Coalition and early election have been almost synonymous in the British political history. So saying that any election is “far off” is folly. Should the AV referendum bill be derailed, we could see fresh elections this winter.

    Incidentally, I remind you that you accused me of being out of touch with reality when I *predicted* that there would be coalition. It was only my bias that didn’t let me see the “reality” of the impending Conservative victory.

  29. Apologies for last line Of text.. Didn’t check predictive text!

  30. @ Wayne

    “We still have more wonderful economic figures to come next quarter do expect to see s tory poll lift off !”

    Before it explodes in mid-air and the red-hot shrapnel comes hurtling back to earth ;)

  31. h ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7912959/Conservative-immigration-cap-under-threat-from-Liberal-Democrats.html

    Hmmmm, can’t work out if this is the Telegraph stirring or if Vince really did say he was “gloomy” about his job. I can hear the Tory backbench spitting over Vince saying he wanted the most “liberal an immigration policy as it’s possible to have”.

  32. @WAYNE
    Out of my depth as I am in addressing you, I respectfully suggest that the 20 hour old 7 point lead means nothing as a better offer has come in from Ipsos. This and to a lesser extent ICM are following Jay Blancs “trend” that the Tories are garbage.

  33. Did you miss this bit Wayne?

    “but in this case we have already seen Labour increasing their support into the mid 30s and the Lib Dems dropping into the mid-teens with YouGov’s daily polling, so while it’s not to the same degree (this is the smallest Conservative lead any poll since the election has shown), the trends are in the same direction.”

    Interesting Times!

  34. Julian Gilbert

    It’s the pointlessness that distinguished Labour’s squabbling. As Sue points out, they were able to work together OK – there were (alas) few policy differences. That’s where it differs from the Tories or Lib Dems now or indeed Labour in the Eighties.

  35. @JAY BLANC
    You did predict a hung parliament. Labour largest party.

  36. @ROLAND -“So many of the pro Labour posters on the site promised a Labour victory in the last GE……”
    Actually, I don’t remember any predicting a Labour victory. We predicted a hung parliament, to a man (and woman). :)

  37. How is Labour’s squabbling any more pointless than any in the Tory party.
    Talking of which, I haven’t heard the terms ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Tories for a long time.
    Time to bring them back I think
    Are the wets in charge of the Tory party at the moment?

  38. Julian – Amber and I predicted a Labour victory (only us) but we are boundless optimists.

  39. JULIAN GILBERT
    Well nobody rewrites history like a socialist Julian so I will simply say, that is not how I remember it.

  40. In fact there was the “prediction thread” so I’m sure Amber still has it.

  41. @SUE & ROLAND
    OK Here goes. Deep breath.
    I was wrong.
    It wasn’t all that hard.
    Some of you should try it sometimes.
    ;)

  42. As I said accidental pools of water will be about some of you, if you get to excited.. Best to wait for a few more polls.

    YouGov are the gold standard in my very professional opinion
    I will carry out a very thorough examination of the weighting used by ICM and Mori and report my conclusion and recommendations!0

  43. Amber has the prediction thread?
    Now that would be interesting.

  44. Julian – It really would wouldn’t it? I wonder if anyone got it spot on?

  45. @Roland

    Nope, never predicted Labour largest party. Predicted hung parliament with it being close between Con/Lib or Lab/Lib. I leaned towards thinking Labour could still have enough seats, and be able to offer a better coalition deal, and that’s what I was wrong about. Primarily because the LibDems suffered from getting lower vote share than the polling was suggesting, and getting an under-performance out of that vote share.

    Now, I’m perfectly happy with getting it “wrong” by only that much. And I did win on the £20 bet I placed on a silly whim in January… Ah, if only I’d bet more…

  46. Roland,
    Thank you for your appreciation of my professionalism and fantastic political intelligence.
    Sue is doing her best to wind me up..bless!
    I bet Labour people will be calling out the fire brigade tonight… Won’t be able to stop wetting themselves with excitement at a poll score of 38%! it’s been ages since they scored this high. Mori must have had fat fingers and pressed the 8 instead of 4 on the calculator .. Bless

  47. @WAYNE
    I agree with your very very professional opinion Wayne.

  48. @WAYNE
    I’m wetting myself with a glass of whisky in celebration.
    Mind you, it doesn’t take much to make that happen, I must admit.

  49. Julian,
    Best get the whisky down yourself before YouGov gold standard appears tonight !
    Enjoy the Labour Poll Score of 38% .. it will probably last as long as the time it takes to pour your whisky!

  50. @WAYNE
    Don’t worry. I can always have a glass in commiseration.

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