Sunday polls

Two polls in the Sunday papers: YouGov have topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14% – which is still very much within the margin of error of the CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 15% figures that YouGov have been floating around for the last few weeks.

There is also a OnePoll survey in the People with topline figures CON 40%, LAB 30%, LDEM 23%. Regular readers may recall I gave these no credence to their polling during the election campaign, given did not publish the necessary information to judge whether their sampling and methodology were likely to produce representative findings. In the event their final poll bore virtually no resemblence to the election result, with shares of CON 30% (out by 7), LAB 21% (out by 9) and LDEM 32% (out by 8) – in the same way as I do not know how they conducted polling prior to the election, I have no idea if they have changed their methods since then.

Rumours of ICM and MORI polls tonight were false apparently, though both are due polls in the coming week.


172 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. @ Johnty

    I do believe that Labour supporters are finding it difficult to accept the election defeat – I heard Neil Kinnock say the same thing on TV last week. He regarded it as a positive.
    ————————————————————
    I think it is a positive too.

    The fact that the Tories do not have a majority also makes it hard to consider it a full-on defeat.

    Logically, a couple of Tory bye-election defeats & the Dems leaving the coalition = Labour could be back as part of an alternative, rainbow coalition sooner than we think. 8-)

    That’s why Labour cannot follow the ‘Cameron’ protocol of saving their policies for 5 years hence. Labour need to send a clear message to the Dems about the policies that would be on the table in an alternative coalition.

  2. @ Aleksander

    “It was hocum however surely on your analysis the only solution on May 7th was a Tory minority govt or a new election. I don’t see any other outcome having legitimacy either.”

    My view all along was that the most democratically legitimate entity that should have emerged from an admittedly muddled election result was a minority Tory Government a la Wilson’s administration of February – October 1974. Cameron, although I can see why he didn’t when he realised how receptive and amenable Clegg was, should have formed a minority government, pledged to govern in the national interest and then called another election after 12 to 18 months. Then, and far be it for me to offer the Tories friendly advice, he could have caught a fledgling Labour leader on the hop and probably won an outright majority, rather like the old master Harold Wilson did in October 1974.

    And here’s the irony. Had he done so, I have a feeling that not only would we have enjoyed better governance in those 12-18 months than we are likely to do with the coalition, as he would have had to garner Parliamentary support from all parties, not just one, the eventual outcome for his party, and the Lib Dems, might well have been a rather more better one than the fate I fear awaits them in 2015. Time will tell.

  3. @Amber
    Would be fascinating to see the Labour Party woo the Lib Dems after what has transpired in the past few weeks – not to mention my favourite politician – Arthur Salmond!

  4. There’s no doubt that a minority government would have been the fairest outcome, but this is politics!! I’m always surprised by how often people think fairness is ever the main priority.

    Clegg and Cameron were nearly as desperate as each other for power – Clegg because it was nearly a Century coming and there was never going to be a better chance, Cameron because he would have been ripped apart by the Tory dogs and more importantly, his party could have become obsolete forever.

    This was always going to be the outcome.

  5. I think Labour can easily woo the LibDems – as long as we are talking about the grass roots. There are many policies Labour can advance that suit their own party and appeal to Lib voters.

    It is Clegg that Labour could not work with, and many Lib voters are angry with. Under a different leader, there is no reason a Lib/Lab pact couldn’t be back on the table.

    Labour for STV!!!!

  6. Lordy, this place is still like the remaining members of the Labour Party meeting in a phone box to discuss the People’s Left Left of Centre Left Right Left Revolution.

  7. James Ludlow – ever been on Facebook?

  8. @ James Ludlow

    Sociable socialists socialising all over the web 8-)

  9. I do not think the new Labour Leader will make any difference. What matters is the economy (as usual). We are the only member of the G20 intent on removing the deficit in 4 years – every other industrialised nation is following Alistair Darling’s strategy of halving their deficits. Is (as predicted by both the IMF & OECD) the UK economy collapses then Labour will do well in May 2011. If the world is wrong and Osborne is right, look to a 3 term Con Government.

  10. @ Eric Goodyer

    If (as predicted by both the IMF & OECD) the UK economy collapses then Labour will do well in May 2011. If the world is wrong and Osborne is right, look to a 3 term Con Government.
    ————————————————————-
    Labour will do well either way.

    If the economy collapses, it will be obvious that ConDem economic policy didn’t work out.

    If the economy is growing nicely, then ‘draconian’ cuts will be seen as unnecessary & ideologically motivated.

    It should be a win-win for Labour. They simply need to get good policies in place that explain the approach they’ll take & how they will flex it, as the global/ external circumstances demand. 8-)

  11. @ Sue

    Thank you for your reply on the previous thread you make a very good case. 20 years ago I was convinced of the case for AMS having observed Germany, if anything the German system is working even better now than then as effectively there are two stable coalitions available. CDU/FDP and SDP/Greens a few more years down the line and when memories fade the PDS will come into play as well, I liked it because it kept the constituency link and yet was truly proportional, an interesting discussion on it I found here h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/16/electoral-reform-additional-member-system

    However your arguments on against the closed list is powerful. Perhaps a hybrid of FPTP and open list could be created kinda AMS+.

  12. @JOHNTY
    “…Labour supporters are finding it difficult to accept the election defeat …”
    I agree with Amber. A hung parliament is a good result for Labour, after three terms and the recession. It means there is a good chance of just one term out of power. Maybe even less.
    This will surprise you. IMO, a worse result for Labour could have been a surprise win. Why?
    Ask John Major.

  13. I do not believe that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the Lib Dems, as has been suggested.
    The Lib Dem vote does not rely on ideological supporters. Of course there will be some, but I believe that most of their support comes from people who aren’t particularly ideologically motivated, who don’t want to committ to the left or the right, but who do want to have a say, and who do want to vote. It’s looking likely that they will suffer a lot, but I do not think they will be obliterated. People need a box for that cross that says that they are not responsible for either the tories or Labour, and the coalition will not eradicate this. In a way, I don’t think it matters too much what the Lib Dems do in this government, people will still need that non-committal vote, and that stance will always be placed on to them, simply because there is nowhere else for it to go. I do however believe that they will do very badly indeed, I just don’t think they will be obliterated.

    The Cons didn’t win a majority because the public were not convinced that they are no longer the “nasty party.” This axe-swinging agenda will only excerbate this. I believe that what it will come to at the next election is people asking themeselves if life was better under Labour or the Conservatives, and it appears inevitable that many people will decide Labour.

  14. GrahamBc – There was a brilliant discussion on here of all the ER forms and STV came out as seeming the fairest. I wish I could find the discussion now as It’s probably the best I’ve read.

  15. I agree with Nick!! (Didn’t think I’d ever say that, lol)

  16. @ Johnty

    Would be fascinating to see the Labour Party woo the Lib Dems after what has transpired in the past few weeks – not to mention my favourite politician – Arthur Salmond!
    ——————————————————————
    Well, Alex Salmond has had to live with Cameron ‘violently agreeing’ with the Americans that Salmond’s government got it wrong on releasing the Lockerbie bomber; Labour were a little more circumspect about it.

    As to Labour woo-ing the Dems… Policies & a decent lead in the polls for Labour will be all the woo-ing that’s required. Build it (the Labour Party) & they’ll come. 8-)

  17. I don’t agree with Nick! Well only on one point.
    I think this coaltion will damage the LDs badly precisely because of the reasons you state. The “box for the cross that says that they are not responsible for either the Tories or Labour” will not be the box next to the LDs any more.
    Obliterated? Yes, until they drastically change direction.
    Which, BTW, I’m sure they will.

  18. @GrahamBC

    Your support for the German system is interesting as it is not PR – it excludes all parties which get less than 5% of the vote. If this was introduced in UK then we would have only three parties in the commons now as SNP, PC, SF, DUP, UKIP, BNP etc all get far less than this in May 2010.

    If you use STV then it is not national PR but regional PR (almost) but in a general election we are electing a UK government not a collection of regional ones.

    FPTP, AV, STV are definitely not PR and PR alone loses the valuable (IMO) lcoal constituency connection. However if you have FPTP+ AMS then you could have complete PR as long as you have no fixed limit on the number of MPs and you don’t need a list system if you give the AMS seats to those candidates gaining the most votes for their parties.

    FPTP+ allows all voters to vote for their true preference in the knowledge that even if their party has no hope in their constituency that the weight of their vote will be redflected in the final make up of the parliament. Thus all votes would be cast in a positive sense whereas other systems produce tactical voting which is basically a negative form of voting and does not represent peoples true preference.

  19. I believe that Labour in Scotland may pave the way for a LabDem coalition elsewhere.

    If the 2011 Holyrood election results in a LabDem coalition, what effect do you think that would have on the attitude of those who are convinced that the ConDem coalition is the model for a 2015 GE?

    If a LabDem coalition becomes a Holyrood 2011 possibility, it will call for a major strategic decision by both parties. 8-)

  20. @ Julian

    “…will not be the box next to the LDs any more.”

    Where will that box go to then? Who will these people vote for?

    I agree that, if they don’t abandon the coalition within the next two years, then it shouldn’t be, but I don’t think it will be about what is and what isn’t. People need that vote, and that won’t change.
    I do think that in the next election, the Lib Dems will suffer a lot, but I think that whilst we have a two party system, we will always have a two and a half party system. I don’t know who could take their place.

  21. Amber – Wow, how truly screwed would that be???

    A Con/Lib coalition at Westminster and a Lab/Lib coalition at Holyrood.

    Surely the cat would then be well and truly amongst the pigeons??

    The evidence for why I love politics is everywhere!!!

  22. Hang on, isn’t Danny Aleander a Scottish Lib? How on earth would he manage to be in a coalition with Con in Westminster and with Lab in Hotyrood? The poor man will have a schizophrenic episode?

  23. @ Sue

    I genuinely believe 2011 will be a huge test for the coalition.
    Imaginery scenario:
    Labour leader gets passed the initial attack & poll dip in a credible & engaging way.
    Labour level or ahead of Tories in polls; Dems still in low teens.
    Ambivalent or even poor economic data in Q1 of 2011.
    AV referendum No, despite Labour Party support for a Yes.
    Scottish Labour Party offer coalition to Dems in Holyrood.

    Cat & pigeons? Yes indeed. 8-)

  24. Amber – How many of the current Libs in Westminster would be involved in a Scottish coalition?

    Would they even accept one?

  25. @AMBER
    That’s an excellent point. A LabDem coalition in Scotland would change the dynamics. It could actually be good for the LDs because it would show that they aren’t aligned with the Tories exclusively. If it worked, it could convince voters that a UK coalition wll work.
    Mind you, we should remeber that all of this is shortish term strategy. The next UK election election will produce a majority for either the Tories or Labour, unless the referendum is won. Which I don’t believe it will.
    @NICK OK
    Most people, in our present system, vote either Labour or Tory, not LD. To win, the LDs need to win those votes blue and red votes too and while the LDs are in coalition with the Tories, they won’t get Labour votes (obviously) but will find it hard to win Tory votes. Why would a Tory voter vote for the LDs at the moment? They would be looking for a Tory majority.
    I think those (much fewer people) who want an anti-Tory/Labour vote will vote for someone else or not at all.
    Who could take their place?
    The Greens?

  26. @ Sue

    We have different MSPs in Scotland. You don’t get to be an MP & an MSP so Danny Alexander doesn’t have that to worry about.

    And that is why the Holyrood coalition is possible. If Dem MSPs want to be in government via a coalition in Scotland, I’m not sure the Dems in Westminster can stop it happening. 8-)

  27. Good point Mike P and I like your solution. I guess I always envisaged a regionalised version anyway as PC and SNP would have to have seats, your version is good or the 5% threshold applied regionally, either way the game would be so changed because people could vote freely with no fear of wasted vote (which is why I will vote yes in any referendum) that we might see smaller parties gaining much higher votes.

    @Sue your arguuments have definitely put STV much higher in my esteem, but I am not sure I like the huge constituency thing, it makes the MPs more remote. I know who my MP is what he stands for etc. but my MEP that is not so clear.

  28. Another way that Labour could woo the Dems into a coalition with Labour:

    ‘Nick, you are deputy PM – how would you like to be PM of the LabDem coalition?’

    Or, alternatively, Dems – a new coalition is your opportunity to pick a new leader, if you feel Nick isn’t up to the job. It won’t look like a disloyal decapitation, it’ll simply be a giving the new coalition its best possible start.

  29. Amber – Wow, that is mind blowing!!! Can’t wait to come to Scotland next year now :)

    (~ps, sorry for my ignorance of the Scottish parliament :( )

  30. @ Julian

    I see your point, but I think that it excludes a chunk of the population who vote not in an anti-tory/labour way, just in a non-committal way. I also think your comment assumes that all people are either naturally red or blue, when a lot aren’t. All the minority parties, including the Greens, are too much at the fringes. The Lib Dem’s fit the non-committal vote so well because of their very nature. They’re a bit right here, a bit left there. Anyway, like I said, I don’t think they will do very badly come election time, but I think they will, over time, recover.

  31. @ Julian Gilbert

    The next UK election election will produce a majority for either the Tories or Labour..
    —————————————
    I’m thinking about the possibilty of the Westminster coalition breaking up in, say 2012 & a new coalition being formed to oust the Tory minority government rather than there being a GE.

    It’s a long shot – but it could happen. 8-)

  32. @NICK OK
    I don’t know whether a lot of people are naturally red or blue but a lot of people sure vote red or blue.
    This of course is a natural result of the FPTP system. Which is why ER is extremely important for the LDs.
    Which is why it is even more bizarre that they went into the coalition wthout a cast iron guarantee for its introduction.
    That’s the real mystery for me. ;)

  33. @ Sue,

    I am pretty sketchy on some of the details of the Scottish parliament myself. I used to just go along to the polls, vote & wait to see what happened….

    My son, however, is going to be campaigning for Labour in 2011 so I’m making the effort to find out all about it. 8-)

  34. @AMBER
    Maybe not such a long shot. I don’t buy al this ‘the LDs aren’t panicking’ theory.
    If the polls continue like this (and I think they will) the strain on the LDs will mean there will have to be change of some kind.
    And any change will be good for Labour, IMHO.
    :)

  35. Julian – Actually that IS rather a mystery. GB and Labour made several genuine advances to the Libs well before the election on ER, but Clegg barely even responded.

    During the first debate I remember being really puzzled when Clegg made no positive statement on ER when GB mentioned it.

  36. @ Nick Hadley

    Thanks for the reply. Would the Scottish Lab/LD coalition in 1999 also have lacked legitimacy on your criteria?

  37. @ Sue

    In the past, Labour didn’t mount a big campaign for Holyrood but I think they are well aware of the potential tactical significance/ opportunities that might arise.

    I think 2011 could see a fairly heavyweight campaign… I mean, this is the first time you’ve been planning to join the campaign so that’s a little significant in itself. 8-)

  38. Doesn’t takem them long. Posh Tory Rory Stewart (Penrith and the Borders) forced to apologise after describing many of his constituents as ‘primitives who hold their trousers up with twine’.

    Great to see that good old fashioned one nation Toryism is alive and well in the north…

  39. True Amber, but independently, inspired by you and two of my Facebook friends! Isn’t social networking great :)

  40. alec – That is truly classic – Conservative Gold – Did you make it up????

  41. @ Alec

    How on earth did he get caught saying that?

  42. @Julian

    Hmmm. Well I can only guess power or foolishness. Or perhaps Clegg and Cameron are planning to merge the right of the Lib Dem’s with the left of the tories and create a big, orange, blue, green? centre-ground mess. Perhaps we will know in a couple of years.

  43. @ Sue

    It is indeed. Is you facebook friend supporting a specific candidate?

    My son will likely be campaigning for Malcolm Chisholm &/or Sarah Boyack. 8-)

  44. I think Nick Clegg decided ages ago he wanted coalition with the tories, he is very much on the right of the DEMs. He couldn’t say so but he did make conditions which would have made it hard to go with Labour, comments on vote size, not being able to support GB. For the LIB DEMs to break coalition and go with Labour they will need to remove NC from leader. I to believe they are already panicking adn do not rule this out, Tim Fallon’s comments the other day I think are the tip of the iceberg. Any Liberals kindly inform us how the party might go about removing a leader, I mean the practical machinery.

  45. @AMBER/SUE………….I don’t know what it is that you two have been smokin’, but, can I have some ? :-)

  46. Amber – I think my friend IS standing.

  47. @Sue/Amber – it’s in the Telegraph, Mirror, BBC and elsewhere. he said it in a newspaper interview apparently.

    He also said; “I was in one village where a local kid was run over by a tractor. They took him to Carlisle but they couldn’t be bothered to wait at the hospital. So they put him in a darkened room for two weeks then said he was fine. But I’m not so sure he was.”

    In his apology he admitted his remarks were stupid but said; “What I was trying to get across to the journalist is that he, and many people in London, are trying to portray Cumbria as an area that is very wealthy and comfortable. That’s very dangerous when [we are] facing cuts.”

    Ah – so he doesn’t like government cuts then?

    The Telegraph report also contains the classic end line – “Mr Stewart stood as a Tory candidate after David Cameron appealed for people who did not have typical backgrounds in party politics to come forward.”

    Er – that’s Mr Stewart, Eton, Balliol College Oxford and the Diplomatic Service, now Tory shire MP. hats off (top hats?) to cameron – how refreshingly untypical……

  48. ho ho- its that ‘ken again’

  49. @ Mike P & Sue

    This makes a good case for AMS

    h ttp://www.democraticaudit.com/download/mvc.pdf

  50. @ Sue

    Amber – I think my friend IS standing.
    ———————————–
    Awesome :-) I really hope we can meet up through the Labour network whilst you are here. That would be super-cool.

    My son worked on Mark’s campaign in Edin & N Leith, so your friend maybe knows him already. 8-)

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