The overnight YouGov figures for the Sun had voting intentions of CON 43%, LAB 35%, LDEM 14%(!). The changes are well within the margin of error of the recent levels of support that the parties have been showing and it is the sort of figure we’d expect to pop up occassionally with the Lib Dems floating around 15% in recent polls, but it’s worth recording that this is the Liberal Democrats lowest level of support since well before the general election. On a uniform swing it would reduce them to a rather sorry 16 seats, though in practice incumbency does tend to give Lib Dem MPs some degree of protection.

UPDATE: I said in the previous post that we hadn’t had a Populus voting intention poll since the General election. Since then they’ve put up the tables from their post-budget poll, which did have voting intentions after all, though I don’t think the Times reported them at the time. They are, of course, long out of date now, having been conducted in late June, but for the record they showed CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 18%.


32 Responses to “YouGov has Lib Dems on 14%”

  1. Good poll for the tories- 28 seat majority.

  2. Very good news for the Tories, probably think it’s a shame they didn’t get these sort of ratings 2 months ago.

    Certainly not bad news for Labour, 35% is practically the same as the 2005 general election result

    The Liberals regardless of what happens should be terrified, this should be an easy time for them, but they’ve slumped so far it’s beginning to look scary. People who usually might have voted Tory are most likely back with the Tories, and those Labour voters who wanted to give the Liberals a chance are back with Labour

  3. If these LD figures persist into September there will IMO be uproar at the LD conference.

    And, surely there will a growiing clamour within the Cons to engineer collapse of the coalition.

    Exciting times!

  4. @Mike N
    LD down to single figures by conference time?
    Judging by the final words in your post you seem to have caught the dreaded Wayneitis. It seems to be contagious and there is no known cure. Nevertheless, I wish you a speedy recovery ! :)

  5. What level of adjustment have YouGov been making with respect to the Lib Dem polling figure – following how wrong they got the GE result?

  6. @COZMO
    Is there such a thing as a core LD vote?

    Wayneitis. Look I’m cured! But there can be a recurrence I believe.

  7. now off on hol, but Lib Dems are in SO much trouble.

    Selling their souls: Vince and Simon

  8. I hope the party sinks without trace.

    wonder what Nick Clegg is thinking now?

  9. James – I did an article on the post-election changes here:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2726

  10. Thanks Anthony

  11. There seems to be a level of disbelief within Lib Dem circles on these figures.

    I would definitely count on LD figures being below 10% by the end of the year.

  12. Looked back into last Parliament – the last time the Lib Dems polled so low for YG was 13 Feb 2009 the result then was Cons 44 Lab 32 LD 14; – just over a year later they were for a time recording figures in the 30’s.
    Incredible electoral volatility.

  13. Re: good poll for the Tories … at this stage n 1997, Labour was at about 60%. This is honeymoon time. The Tories should be storming it and they’re not. Their 43% still less I think than John Major achieved in 1992 and less than they were polling at their best over the last few years.

    As for LibDems, looks like they’ve followed their moral destruction with their political annihilation. Expect a Lloyd-George/Asquith type split as soon as they hit single figures – around the autumn. We could have a general election by spring 2011 …

  14. Forming coalition with the Conservatives was not the point at which the LibDems began to fall apart. (As, indeed, they are going to do).

    After all, their support would have dropped in a similar fashion had they formed coalition with Labour.

    No. The key for them was to ride the storm – of being in coalition as the small party – and obtain a true PR system of election.

    Instead Clegg failed to go down this route and formed coalition with the first party to offer him AV.

    If they even get that it will not be sufficient.

    A terrible mistake by Clegg on behalf of his party.

  15. @CHRIS “Instead Clegg failed to go down this route and formed coalition with the first party to offer him AV.
    If they even get that it will not be sufficient.
    A terrible mistake by Clegg on behalf of his party.”

    It’s actually worse than this. Lab promised AV in its manifesto and seriously courted the NC and the LDs before and during the GE campaign.

    All LDs must now be wondering about NC being inept.

    It’s all speculation of course, but one could argue that LD support would not have plummeted in a coalition with Lab.

  16. @Chris Todd

    Labour offered the LibDems AV without a referendum, plus a referendum on PR. But Clegg still decided to go with the Tories.

  17. @Mike N
    “Is there such a thing as a core LD vote?”
    ———————-
    I am sure there will still be a few loyal fans. Nick’s wife, his mum, granny perhaps, and maybe one or two old school pals. Rock bottom, and AV already doomed IMHO.
    :)
    8)
    ;)
    ( just had to try that , though the ladies may have patented it! )

  18. Dems loss of support has truly made them the junior partner in the coalition.

    Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the marginals was interesting. IMO, he may have been pondering the collapse of the coalition & wondering what could happen in any GE campaign before the boundary changes are in place.

    At the moment, the marginals appear to be a wash for the Tories (gains of 30 versus Labour gains of 28).

    The AV part of the poll was also interesting. Slight gains from the Dems picking Tories as their 2nd choice. That effect depends on the coalition having an amicable end. An acrimonious divorce could easily move those 2nd preferences elsewhere.

    All the polling suggests it is too close to call under either system. That is not to say the Tories would not win but they could not be certain of a majority, so they will try to keep the coalition alive. 8-)

  19. @Ian Mackay

    I think you are being a bit hard on Con. After all, this honeymoon is more of a shotgun marriage hangover, as the electorate demonstrated on May 6th. So to have climbed back to where they were a year ago, as Johnty points out, is reasonable progress. Johnty also points out that LD are back to that figure too.

    The jury will remain out until the economic influences are felt directly by the electorate. Sorry if I parrot. These are limbo days (thought I would sign off with some originality).

  20. There seems to be an awful lot of crowing here for what is actually only a 1% drop (and therefore well within the margin of error) from what the Libs have been polling for at least a couple of weeks. Despite the rather sensationalist headline, there’s actually not all that much new in this poll.

  21. @ TonyOtim

    I agree with you in some degree. Its not really that shocking to see the libs down 1% and they have in the past polled 13% of the vote under Ming but thats what makes it scarey in a way. Clegg was more charasmatic, had less factors to burden on him (i.e. age, left-wing views etc. etc.). And even then he managed to poll on average 16-18%.

    Also, you have to remember, however, is that their will be a lot of lib supports or coalition supports maybe even some left-wingers who still unconditionally support the lib dems who would have thought that 15% in the last poll would be worst scenorio but to poll 14% and not even get the 16-18% they normally enjoy even 2 months after an election is something they have to treat with caution.

    Its even more bad when in normal circumstances where we have a government dominated by one party instead of two the libs tend to come out worst because they do not get the high profile that they are enjoying now.

    Now they have got that high profile and its not appearing to pay off and I believe come December we could see the LibDems getting 10-12% of the vote. I do not believe it will go down to single figures but I think for the next two years we could see 14% becoming a common figure in libdem polls.

  22. I think the Labour percentage is holding up pretty OK…after all they are ‘in limbo’ at present with no leader.

    NC looks like a zombie sitting next to Cameron in the Commons. With 14% – no wonder!

    The Tory approval rating is poor in their ‘honeymoon period’ with their wonderful, super-duper new politics – Labour in the 1990s apparently had 60% approval rating.

    I can only see it getting worse for the coalition especially towards the end of the year.

  23. Whether or not the Libs had any influence at the start of the coalition, they have none now.

    If and when Cameron acts to marginalise the Libs further, Clegg can hardly threaten to force a general election. On this poll, Cameron would call his bluff.

    Do you really feel as pleased with yourself as you look, Nick?

  24. Be careful what you wish for. You may get it. Eg. for the Liberal Democrats, a hung parliament.

  25. I don’t think many Lib Dem activists wanted a hung parliament, esp not with Clegg in charge.

    No I think their ideal result would have been a narrow Conservative win, with a weak Tory party trying to put through cuts and getting defeated left, right and centre in parliament.

  26. Last December I met a Lab supporting friend.

    Two weeks ago we met up again. He informed me he’d voted LD at the GE. His comment – “Never again”.

  27. Wonder if these polling numbers are responsible for some of the following today:

    ” Source close to Cable says option of looking at graduates paying towards education thro tax system was ‘fully agreed’ by senior members of govt”

    “Number 10 has said that deputy prime minister Nick Clegg was not speaking on behalf of the government today at prime minister’s questions when he described the Iraq war as “illegal”. Foreign secretary William Hague has also distanced himself from the comments.”

    “It’s been a day of mixed messages for the coalition after deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, said at PMQs today that British soldiers must be out of a combat role in Afghanistan by 2015, which shadow defence secretary Bob Ainsworth said makes the job of British troops in Afghanistan harder. Later today defence secretary Liam Fox would not commit to a withdrawal date when giving evidence to the defence select committee today, saying troops may be required “for some time.”

  28. The Lib Dems are in meltdown according to this poll.
    Back to the level of the 1979 election.

  29. I am one of those who voted Libdem at the last election. I voted for them primarily to stop the tories getting in!. Given our FPTP system and living in solid blue Bournemouth this seemed the best option. I am not surprised with the poor showing in the opinion polls. I for one will never vote Libdem again. Why?
    1. The libdems said they would not make cuts this year and now they agree with the tories.
    2. Thet campaigned against a VAT rise, but now support the rise.
    I have never felt so cheated by a party that can make such a U turn in a matter of days this side of an election. Many of my colleagues feel the same. This I would argue explains the collapse in Libdem support.

  30. An image in today’s Sun caught my eye and reminded of another image from long ago. Such images say more than words ever can.

    Today’s image is of NC and GO sat together yesterday on the HoC benches. NC is leaning to his right away from GO who is leaning towards NC and saying something.

    It remnded me of Ted Heath and Enoch Powell sat at the centre of a Politburo-look table at a Con partyy conference: EH is leaning forward looking down the table to his right, and EP is doing the same but in the other direction.

  31. Anthony

    I have a post in moderation. It seems to me ok.

    Can you please clarify/explain?

    Thanks

  32. Ah, it’s appeared.

    Ta