There is a new ComRes poll out tonight for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from their previous poll a week and a half ago, are CON 40%(+4), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 18%(-5). As with ICM and YouGov, that represents a sharp drop in Liberal Democrat support, though ComRes are showing a rather lower level of Labour support than other companies.


487 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – 40/31/18”

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  1. @MATT

    “I would vote for a female candidate (or PM) if she is good enough. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of good female Tory candidates at the mo IMO.”

    I agree with that Matt, but you could include all parties.
    This PC nonsense about voting for a black person or a woman as if they have Downs syndrome is dreadful.
    If a PERSON is good enough. that is the only proper criteria. As I said the other day, Labour have a shout at London Mayor with a black woman. She does’nt need any PC “lets all be liberal” rubbish. IMPO she is a better vote winner than bloody old Ken Stalin.

  2. @ Sue,

    I just read your post about your nephew. I am so very sorry to hear such a thing happened to your family.

  3. @Roland,

    “If a PERSON is good enough. that is the only proper criteria.”

    I totally agree.

  4. @Sue,

    “I just read your post about your nephew. I am so very sorry to hear such a thing happened to your family.”

    Me too. That’s awful.

  5. @SUE
    One reads about these things and never expects to be acquainted with someone who has been hurt by such an appalling tragedy. My very deep condolences.

  6. Thank you for the condolences guys. A terrible tragedy indeed over absolutely nothing.

  7. Roland,

    Old Ken is hero worshipped in West Belfast as I am sure you know….. he has a drawer ful of black flags.

    Nevertheless, Oonagh Oona Una (however she spells her name, which is Gaelic btw) is a much better candidate

  8. I’ve always loved Oona. She was quite the young thing under Blair initially, but her star seemed to fade. Anyone know why?

  9. If anyone is interested support for the coalition is increasing amongst Conservatives.

    ConservativeHome reports today that amongst 1786 Con members surveyed 79% think the coalition is good for the country and 59% for the party.

    These are both up 10% from mid May

  10. Eoin,

    I’m with you that Oona would be a better candidate. She comes over as bright and cheerful whereas Ken depresses me. I’m sure that Boris would rather stand against his old foe.
    Checked the odds and was surprised to see KL was the 4-1 on fav with OK at 5-2 for the Lab slot. The plus side for KL is that he is better known. The minus for KL is that he is better known.

  11. SUE

    What a dreadful thing to have happened to your nephew.

    I am very sorry to hear it.

  12. @JOHN F
    Interesting John, however any Tory who is not reasonably happy with the arrangement at present is either a candidate for UKIP or has some other mental issue.

  13. @Aleksander – I wasn’t particularly thinking of you in the original post. To be perfectly honest I really rate your posts and wasn’t entirely sure if you had a partisan viewpoint until you mentioned something about your general view, such was the overall fairness of much of what you write.

  14. looks as if the date of the AV referendum is going to be announced in the next few days.

  15. @ Roland H

    What interests me is the discrepancy between the polls and what the newspapers would have you believe.

    Every time there is a coalition announcement eg Clarke yesterday on prisons, the press would have us believe that large sctions of the Tory party are up in arms.

    Clearly the reverse is the case and these announcements are making the Coalition more not less popular.

    The figure of 1% shy of 80% believeing the Colaition is good for the country is quite remarkable IMO.

  16. Oona King
    A non-starter against Ken I’m afraid. Politically I am not close to Ken and appreciate the comment from Aleksander about K’s strengths and weakness however Oona lacks what was called “bottom” in a recent post and was too obviously found out by Gorgeeous G. At Labour conference KL was genuinely original and interesting on Labour’s problems in local government believing these rooted in too up-front opposition to Thatcher and the too ready marginalisation of the traditional manual male working class councillors (honest)
    Incidentally, Oona has an estranged father who is an absolute genius who lived in the UK as a recognised refugee from the USA

  17. John Fletcher
    I don’t think there is a contradiction between support for the coalition and unhappiness at the policy.
    Roland is absolutely right about the coalition. It is a dream from the tory perspective.
    However tory supporters are not going to allocate policy responsibilty to the coalition. Quite simply they can see that outside of a few eccentricities (from a tory point of view) such as AV, the Lib Dems have no influence or potential to rock the boat. So they will view prison announcements as tory announcements with which they feel they have every right to disagree
    ps Lenin used to regarde liberals etc tied to the communist cause as usefull idiots. I don’t know why that came to mind

  18. @John Fletcher
    Fraser Nelson in the Spectator blog claims that 190 Conservative Manifesto promises were not in the coalition agreement – but it doesn’t like to me as if many people care. Who reads manifestos I wonder – and who agrees 100% with any of them?
    Also understand that Cameron has signed an “I agree with Nick” placard – which is to be auctioned for charity.
    As you say the press focus on the potential strains, but the coalition may be a lot stronger than they realise.

  19. @Barney Crockett
    Think Lenin was referring to Soviet sympathisers who lived in western liberal democracies – so not a very good analogy.

  20. @JOHNTY
    Well said brother, this pointless business which goes on on web sites, oooh Cameron piked his nose, oooh Milliband broke wind, aided and abetted by the press is ridiculous.

  21. Some interesting figures to note from an alternative studies into job creation in the private sector. The study was done by the TUC, so some caveats there, but it does use some unarguable figures and is backed up by the NIESR, although I also apply earlier caveats to all think tanks.

    The figures thought are genuinely interesting. After the early 1980’s recession it took seven years to create 2m new jobs against average annual GDP growth of 3.6%. After 1991/92 it took nine years to create 2m jobs with growth averaging 3.2%. The OBR is currently predicting 2m new jobs in five years at average growth of 2.5%.

    Given that these previous recoveries did not have the overhang of an extremely severe global financial crisis I really can’t see why the OBR is out on a limb and predicting such an optimistic job creation scenario in such a short period.

  22. @John Fletcher

    I can’t say I’m surprised at a high level of support, amongst Cons for the coalition. The Lib Dem foot soldiers are allowing the Tories to behave as tho’ they have an overall majority, that they are the ‘the natural party of Government etc etc. Actually I think DC was pretty astute to seize the chance to govern, with a majority, after a pretty lack lustre campaign which didn’t resonate with the public. The ‘Big Idea?’ Hmm.

    @Sue

    So sorry to hear about your nephew. What a dreadful thing tohappen

  23. @Alec

    Thank you for your kind comments. I realised that it was not directed at me but at others who have since disappeared. It was meant to be a gentle reminder that I had expressed and continue to express my concerns about the state of the banks.
    I really try to post in a non-partisan way so that I can see matters from other people’s perspective. Checks and balances on my own views. It’s all to easy to rant and rave.
    I find your posts very fair and agree with large parts of them. For that reason I can’t pigeon hole you though you are to the left of me , possibly very left of me. I look forward to your views on housing benefit reform if they ever get out of moderation. Must be very controversial or just lousy spelling.

  24. @ Barney C, Johnty & Valerie

    I agree with you all. DC certainly seems to be in control of his party.

    Conference season will be interesting. If DC gets a huge standing ovation from the Cons (which looks very likely), but NC’s reception at the LD conference if less than fullsome things could get interesting.

  25. alex

    all this talk of growth is nonsense, the next ten years will go like this

    downturn…..oil $60……..upturn growth 1%…. oil $90 and new downturn……oil $75 new up turn growth 1%……….. oil $110 new downturn……….oil $85 new upturn growth 1% ………oil $140 new downturn

    i hope i’m wrong

  26. TEST

  27. Sue
    I am very sorry to hear of the dreadful tragedy that has affected your family.

  28. @ Alec

    “After the early 1980’s recession it took seven years to create 2m new jobs against average annual GDP growth of 3.6%”

    The first half of 1980s’ figures are suspect, because of reclassifications of employment.

    I don’t quite believe in these analogies (the figures are too aggregated), but you made a good point.

    If it can happen, it would be quite a miracle. As I said it in my morning post, I have no idea why they made this prediction, their model is not appropriate for this forecast.

  29. sue

    hugs

  30. Johnty
    I leave it for you and others to judge aptness … but I do wonder if Roland had a quiet chortle
    Many posters have pointed to the asymetrical nature of the coalition and my apologies for losong track of who was raising the effects at a future election.
    But the difference would seem to be that one impact is much more predictable than another. It is beyond doubt that Labour voters will refuse to back Libs to keep out the tory. Unalloyed good news for the tories.
    On the other hand the Libs might hope for help against Labour from tories. This is much less likely. Dislike is a stronger medicine that mild attachment. Labour-minded people now dislike Libs. Tories havee amild attatchment to Lib Dems. IMO Labour may face a bigger threat in Lab-Lib marginals of a direct tory threat than tory support switching to the Liberal. Of course these dynamics may may be even more complicated in a four party Scotland

  31. @ Richard in Norway

    “all this talk of growth is nonsense, the next ten years will go like this”

    Would be fascinating and yes, I hope too that it would not happen.

    It would be rather similar to the growth pattern of the latter two thirds of the 1970s, which was also a sign of an end of a “business model” and a type of “state intervention”.

    I think, I’m in agreement with you, but the details would be even more interesting.

  32. laszlo

    are you thinking about asset prices around the world not being in touch with reality. the people buying gold certainly are

  33. @Barney Crockett – For what it’s worth my big bro’ served briefly on a committee with OK and was distinctly underwhelmed (possibly the feeling was mutual :) ). She has a winning personality, but I get the feeling that pursuing a media career in tandem, sometimes blunts the political edge.

    @Sue Marsh – I’m so sorry if my post stirred up memories for you. A terrible sadness to lose a youngster like that. Sorry.

  34. @Barney Crockett
    The Lib Dems had no real alternative – and clearly the coalition is a much higher risk for them. It would have been even higher risk to have played politics in the way some people on here think that they should have done. They would have been annihilated if they were seen to have caused a second election, particularly having just fought a campaign based on cooperation between political parties.
    I have posted before on here that I think Labour voters will not support Lib Dems in Lib-Con marginals – and I suspect that in Lab-Lib marginals Tory voters will be easier to squeeze than they were in 2010. Clearly the net gainers from these two moves will be the Conservatives.
    It is far too early to predict about 2015 though. Meanwhile we have a rather nasty global crisis to negotiate. I wonder if Labour has a Ramsay Macdonald waiting in the wings?

  35. Alec/Laszlo
    Laszlo pointed out in an earlier posting that new jobs going to recent arrivals tended to be at the low paid end of the spectrum (I think that is what he said) and such jobs may be more easily created especially if there is a ready flow from abroad.
    Local councils will have a bigger job than ever coping with the contingent problems

  36. @billy bob
    On the button
    Sue
    I’m afraid I’m too much of a presbyterian scot to say what I feel but terribly sorry
    Johnty
    Agree with much of your analysis and in particular 2015 long way away but we in Scotland have interim election in May. As for Ramsay MacD, at that time hardly anyone had an inkling how to deal with depression except by the orthodox way so Labour seemed bereft. While the coalition sspeaks the language of the 1930s, I believe Labour need not follow suit. individuals may jump ship but Labour will not’as it did go down to residual size

  37. @ Richard in Norway

    Well, I think still not enough asset value has been destroyed (it made life easier) because of the scale of government intervention.

    I also think that there is no springboarding by private business. There is a little hopping, but then fear comes in and falls back. I would not be surprised if we had a number of quarter year drops in economic growth followed by growth for some time and then again drops for years.

    As to government policies, the sudden change to cutting is not merely ideological, it’s a kind of admission of incapacity. The economy simply does not react (beyond avoiding a meltdown) as it has done in the last 30 years. Quantitative easing seems to be the only operational measure, but there rises the sceptre of Japan…

    And oil prices, as you said, are also important – it could trigger all kinds of monetary processes whose outcomes depend on other factors and so on… It could easily trigger a supply induced inflation and that with the saving of asset prices and continuous creation of money supply…

    It is also possible that various governments around the world are waiting for when it becomes politically possible to shift the burden of the recession (in the real economy) on the populous instead of carrying it in the governments’ book.

  38. @ Barney Crockett

    Yes, essentially what you wrote, but a bit more than that.

    All these claims about job creation, if they are no low paid, unskilled or semi skilled jobs that will be filled by Eastern Europeans mainly and not by British, is fantasy. There is no estimate about the type of jobs, structure, skills, gender, whatever. If the job creation is in skilled or highly skilled tasks, then the British labour market is not in the position to respond to it (people fired from public service, long term unemployed, youth unemployment) withint the timeframe, so even these jobs will be fulfilled by immigrants.

    However, in my far too simple model, private sector (excluding those, where public service is simply reclassified) will create 720,000 new jobs in the five years. Of these, I guess (on the basis of 2004-2008 – so not very reliable) about half of them will be filled by immigrants.

  39. laszlo

    wow

  40. AV referendum May 11th Johnty.

    Surprisingly, all 5 Labour candidates say they will support the yes vote.

    Thanks once again, everyone, for your kind words. I feel quite touched.

  41. Laszlo
    By my conservative calculation this would mean 3000 plus new people. I will havee to register them for Scotland’s election!
    Difficult for the council though

  42. @Johnty

    I think the Lib Dems did have another option. The Conservatives as a minority Govt could have produced a budget which the Lib Dems and Labour could have supported. Don’t forget, Labour had already planned a pretty severe programme of deficit reduction. Now that would have been a case of Parties working together, which is what the electorate voted for after all. The Tories could have gone for a snap election, but there is no guarantee they would have profited by it.

  43. @ Sue

    Interesting times. I feel inclined to vote against AV. How about you?

  44. @Laszlo – Larry Eliott in The Guardian making the point that productivity is now very high in manufacturing (machines making things), so less scope there. Not so much of a prospect of disposable income rising fast to help other employment sectors.

    “…shift the burden of the recession (in the real economy) on the populous” – that sounds dire ;(
    Are you being kind to us sensitive souls by not spelling it out in layperson’s language?

  45. @Barney Crockett
    I wish I believed that anyone knew how to get us out of the mess we are in. Don’t think replacing Nick Clegg’s Orange Book with LLoyd George’s Yellow Book is going to happen somehow. Seems to me that the Keynesian moment has come and gone. Nobody now seems to be comparing Obama to Franklin Roosevelt, the labour movements in the Anglo Saxon world are weaker than at any time since the second world war, and the capital markets now seem to have the European social model in their sights. Only my opinion of course!

  46. @Valerie
    I don’t buy that one. I am sure Labour activists would have preferred that option – but don’t think the capital markets would have liked it – inherently unstable. I think there would have been a lot of arguing in the Labour Party also if that had been proposed as a serious solution! I don’t recall anybody in the Labour Party coming up with such a suggestion at the time.

  47. @Valerie
    Are we entitled to begin but not end with “interesting times”?

  48. johnty

    yes the markets are in control, they don’t know what they are doing but are doing it anyway. and no one can stop them

  49. @Richard in Norway
    We seem to be as pessimistic as each other – perhaps its our Norwegian connections. Time for bed.

  50. Richard in Norweay
    “yes the markets are in control, they don’t know what they are doing but are doing it anyway. and no one can stop them”

    If that last bit is true, it could be quite disastrous. The markets could bring about the demise of the Euro, with all the chaos that would result from that. Social unrest and even rebellions and revolutions in Europe are not impossible. Just because they haven’t happened for a while doesn’t mean they can’t happen. It’s not all that long since the Balkan Wars, and I can also remember the widespread unrest in 1968. Staying out of the Euro could be the most sensible decision that’s been made in recent history.

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