There is a new ComRes poll out tonight for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from their previous poll a week and a half ago, are CON 40%(+4), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 18%(-5). As with ICM and YouGov, that represents a sharp drop in Liberal Democrat support, though ComRes are showing a rather lower level of Labour support than other companies.


487 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – 40/31/18”

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  1. @ Matt

    “The fear of crime also means that people are also much more wary about venturing outside late at night.”

    Would be interesting to see reliable figures for this. It could be a factor as 60% of all homicide is committed between 8 pm and 4 am.

  2. “Would be interesting to see reliable figures for this. It could be a factor as 60% of all homicide is committed between 8 pm and 4 am.”

    Yes, I would definitely say it’s a factor.

  3. ken wants to send young tearaways to eton, is that cruel and unusual punishment

  4. “ken wants to send young tearaways to eton, is that cruel and unusual punishment”

    Ken has lost my respect. He should resign, as far as I’m concerned. I can only hope it’s a Lib policy, and not a Tory one.

  5. Matt – crime fell dramatically under Labour. I know it doesn’t seem possible, but it is true. Overall crime was down by around 40%.

    There was a brilliant article in the Economist about this – perceptions of crime rose for every percentage crime fell.

    The media convinced us all that the country had gone to the dogs, but in fact, this was a big success area for Britain whatever political party you support.

    I’ll try to find the article, it is non-partisan, and quite fascinating.

  6. @ Matt

    “I suppose at least everyone now knows that tax evasion, burglary, stealing, assault etc. are not going to lead to proper punishments anymore.”

    This document may answer some of the conflicting arguments about sentencing:

    ht tp://www.sentencing-guidelines.gov.uk/docs/public_attitudes_principles_sentencing.pdf

    It was considered (although less so than the Court of Appeal’s views) when the sentencing guidelines were updated.

  7. Found it Matt

    h ttp://www.economist.com/node/15452867?story_id=15452867

  8. ‘@ Valerie

    “So 27/80’s is about a third.”

    Yes-but 27years is not a working lifetime. 40 years is a working lifetime-which retires you on half pay at 80ths.

    ” read somewhere that the average pension for a full time LA worker is 7 – 8K. ”

    I want to scream every time I read this sort of thing.
    Simply quoting a pension -and asserting that it is “low” is nonsense-meaningless.

    You need to say over what period the pension was earned & compare it with final salary.

    If a full time worker in a final salary related 80ths scheme retires on £7k after a final year on £20k , then they have been a member of that scheme for 28years.
    They presumably have retained pension benefits from the other 12 years or so of their working life in another scheme.

    In addition -if the Public Sector pension is indexed, that is something which is practically unobtainable in a Private Sector Scheme-it is vastly expensive to fund-the earlier you retire, the more it costs to fund.

    There was a time when a salary related 80ths scheme compared unfavourably with the typical Private Sector 60ths scheme.

    Not any longer-Salary related schemes in the Private Sector are largely history-succeeded by Defined Contribution pots , where the employee/scheme member bears all of the investment risk of a fund which they have to convert themselves into pension.

    Members of Salary related Defined Benefits Schemes bear none of the investment risk, and have no annuity purchase obligations.

  9. @Sue,

    I read it. My frustrations are not just with the Labour party regarding crime. I accept the Tories were just as bad during the 1960s-mid 1990s. I accept that the murder rate has fallen over the past few decades, but only for the following reasons:-

    1) Change in demographic. Significant reduction in the proportion of young males. This partly explains why Western countries have all (generally) seen the same trend.
    2) Fear of crime has meant a massive increase in personal security. Our homes are now like fortresses compared to just 30 years ago. People are more wary of venturing out late at night, reducing their risk. I accept the media has played a part in this.

    I also accept that the rise in crime compared to the early/mid-20th century, is probably down to social factors more than punishment. Families are less structured, we now live in a consumerist society etc. I’m not one to believe all this ‘deterrence’ malarkey. Having said that, I strongly believe that any civilised country needs a strong just justice system – for the victims’ sake more than anything else.

  10. “Found it Matt

    h ttp://www.economist.com/node/15452867?story_id=15452867”

    Thanks. I remember that very edition. It was a very interesting read. The Economist is my favourite newspaper.

  11. Colin,

    Admit it you would prefer the safe haven in hindsight- you might even vote red :P

    ps…

    as for safe havens…. I had a 13/4 year old inner city (Mark surname omitted) Notts kid pull a knife on me in class before (Mar. 2004) He invited me to return to Ireland… I think he thought it important I reaquainted myslef with my mother….

    Is that the real world?

    :)

    he was a nice kid really- cheered up no end when i taught him how to box… better than knives I expplained… :)

  12. I hate to say it, but the government’s announcements regarding the change in policy regarding prisons/the justice system smacks of cost cutting more than anything else. It seems like they will make it seem like Labour were tough on crime. This is something that I have to now begrudgingly admit.

  13. MATT

    definetly not a libdem policy, i would never send my kids to eton

  14. “definetly not a libdem policy, i would never send my kids to eton”

    LOL.

  15. Eoin – My 5 year old tells me today, in his leafy-suburb, catholic Primary, another boy “Strangled the teacher” today.
    He’d spoilt another child’s model, and when the teacher told him off he tried to strangle her. Then he trashed the classroom and al the other children had to wait outside.

  16. @Eoin & Sue,

    Bad behaviour in schools is more rife than many people like to admit. I went to a well-performing comp in the 1990s and assaults on teachers, both physical and verbal, were by no means unheard of. I personally witnessed them a few times.

    Children need structure and discipline. Unfortunately many don’t have this. I’m just mighty glad that I did.

  17. @Sue marsh – “crime fell dramatically under Labour. I know it doesn’t seem possible, but it is true. Overall crime was down by around 40%…..The media convinced us all that the country had gone to the dogs, but in fact, this was a big success area for Britain whatever political party you support.”

    This is something the blues on here complaining of tribal criticism of the new government should pay heed to. The last government had to put up with the screaming abdabs on crime repeatedly, despite it being a really big success story, for whatever reason.

    There is also a wider lesson. This illogical approach to crime statistics has made people frightened and blighted people’s lives. If opponents take a similar approach to the new governments economic policies they risk destroying fragile confidence and their fears becoming self fulfilling prophecies.

  18. Eoin

    “Is that the real world?”

    Sadly-for many teachers-it is. I recognise that.

    I hope they get the support they deserve to deal with these little thugs-and their dysfunctional parents.

    …then they can get back to inspiring & teaching our children-the ones capable of doing so that is.

  19. Eoin

    “Admit it you would prefer the safe haven in hindsight-”

    Nonot at all. I enjoyed my career-particularly the cut & thrust of the commercial world.
    Public SEctor would have driven me to distraction-one only has to try & deal with it to know.

    “you might even vote red”

    I was tempted to respond -I did-in ’97……….but I know what you would say ;-)

  20. Matt – We totally agree on that one.

    It just occurred to me. I am THRILLED and exhilarated about one thing.

    We are at last, having a real political debate. The lines are drawn as they haven’t been for a generation, and all the endless discussions on “Shades of Grey” that so frustrated me before the election are blown sky high.

    The Conservatives are as Conservative as any I have known.

    The LibDems are now emphatically Liberals and I understand so much more about what that means since May 7th

    Labour are re-grouping, so hard to say where they will go, but IMO it has never been clearer that they have a firm, valid place in opposition.

    Now THEY are exciting times!

  21. “…the real world?”

    I really believe that the portrayal of violence as ‘heroic’ by the entertainment industry is a crime.
    The hyper-kinetic style also locks people into a dissasociated state in which they unable to form judgements about what they are watching.

  22. @Richard in Norway

    But Richard, The terrible things you are claiming Lib Dems saved the country from would not have happened. Because the Tories, although the largest party, did not attain an overall majority. Therefore a budget containing all these things you list would not have been passed by the House. The Tories would have had to work at producing a budget which would pass muster. Instead, DC can swan around behaving as tho’ he is a PM with a handsome majority while the ‘junior partners’ take all the flak when they appear on Question Time and the like. You’ve been stitched up!

    @Colin

    I am talking about the reality rather than a theoretical perspective. As I understand it, the majority of public sector employees are not on a 40 year journey cruising towards pension age when they will be in possession of a nice fat final salary. This may happen in the private sector but the majority of LA employees are women, most of whom have had career breaks.

  23. Valerie – Oh what a very good point about the coalition.

  24. @Valerie – “…by which time Labour has a new Leader”

    Reds played an enlightening game on here listing preferences 1-5. (I still have hopes for D. Milliband though he is controversial with some ;) )
    Do you have a favourite as yet?

  25. Sue,

    Labour forming a strong opposition can only be great for the UK IMO. I wish Labour (and all reds) the best of luck.

  26. @Sue Marsh

    Ah thanks Sue. Is’nt it interesting that the gals on this site are all progressives. Like you I’m enjoying the debate.

  27. @ Valerie

    I agree with You & SUE ;-) Richard In Norway had almost convinced me that we were being too harsh on the Dems until I read your post. 8-)

  28. Valerie – and only three of us, unless any George Elliotts are in our midst.

    Come on Laydeez, if you lurk, come into the light. Politics has to change and perhaps it is time women changed it.

    Take a little look at how Iceland dealt with economic crisis…

  29. Talking of the Economist, there was a warning in this week’s edition that thriftier times are ahead for the Western World in the coming decades. The days of easy retirement, cheap and attainable personal (and national) debt are well and truly behind us, it warned. Sounded kind of depressing, to be honest.

  30. @Amber,

    I wouldn’t trust the Libs with my granny.

  31. @ Richard in Norway

    RE: Reds apologising.

    GB apologised to people who, IMO, barely merited it.

    I dislike Blunkett, Charles Clarke & James Purnell but that’s 3 out of many, many senior Labour politicians. 8-)

  32. Colin,

    ’97 Speechless :) You have me with that one…. (does Sue know that?)

    and yes the public sector can be a monumental pain to deal with……

  33. @ Valerie and Sue

    Thanks for that. I tried to test the theory using the regional breaks from the polls but realised that the sample size was too small esp when the first observation had the Tories on 51% in London.

    FWIW In my constituency, Islington S, which is a Lab/LD battle the Tories were a poor third in 2005. With Lab having a tiny 500 majority I fully expected the LDs to take this target seat. However Lab increased their maj to 3500 partly due to a return of the anti-war vote and a good London performance. The other surprise was the Tory vote went from 4500 to 8500 in an unwinnable seat. That is a sizeable third party vote (19.4%) which may be more inclined to vote tactically for the LDs if the coalition survives.

    Sue, re Lansley
    As a blue I am totally unimpressed and agree that he is a liability. Some of his comments re the NHS budget seem like he is making up policy as he goes along.
    I always thought that Ministers and even Shadows were supposed to stick to their brief and in particular not tread on the Chancellor/shadows turf. AL has made comments re depth of cuts, ring-fencing the NHS that should be GO’s preserve. I think that he may have gone ‘native’ within the NHS jungle and is protecting his dept. Either that or he doesn’t think before he speaks. IMHO.

  34. valerie & sue

    you both know that any other course of action would have led to another election with a massive tory majority and the destruction of the libdems

    and while we were waiting for a new election the markets would have ripped the economy to shreds

    why oh why didn’t labour introduce market controls and PR

  35. @ Matt

    RE: Crime – I agree. Victims of violence want their attacker to be punished. No ‘free pass’ for crimes of violence, IMO. 8-)

  36. Sue,

    Wow That is violent- sounds like a parental order waiting to happen…. is there any background?

    Billy’s right – assassins creed (and other such games) has a lot to answer for

    Matt,

    One of the better elements Toryism and very tempting to return to (strict upbringing) but would we be giving in to the fight I wonder? It does seem like we a fighting a losing battle…

  37. The surprising thing for me so far is that KC has been more of a liability to the Tories than GO. GO has been surprisingly good IMO. Never thought I’d say that in a million years.

  38. Richard In Norway – I’m afraid I disagree. Clegg boxed himself in way before the election.

    A Tory minority WOULD have had to work much harder to make their case for this path of action. If it failed, then the economic battle lines would already have been drawn and voters would have known much more about what all the parties ACTUALLY proposed to do.

    An election would have been impossible to predict IMO

  39. @Sue Marsh… New PM Julia Gillard certainly enters into the spirit of Australian politics… she referred to the opposition leader Tony Abbot as a ‘snivelling grub’ (former PM Kevin Rudd found it difficult to address Abbot’s aggressive style).
    Parallels with UK: Labour face an election with Liberal/National coalition calling for deficit reduction.

  40. Eoin – believe it or not he is actually a quite sweet boy with kind parents. They just have no idea how to be parents.

  41. @Amber,

    I agree totally. I don’t want people locked up for petty things. However, GBH and burglary are certainly not ‘minor’ IMO.

  42. Billy Bob – Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir would get my vote.
    Merkel, Gillard, come on the girls!!!

  43. I’ve got to go but this site has really helped me get over my post election depression.
    Let’s see what tomorrow brings. :-)

  44. @ Richard in Norway

    you both know that any other course of action would have led to another election with a massive tory majority and the destruction of the libdems
    —————————————————-
    I do not think there would’ve been a massive Tory victory; you are discounting what the Tories would’ve thought of David Cameron if he could barely form a government.

    Have you not read enough comments from the blues about how furious they were with DC until ‘he’ pulled off the coalition agreement?

    And furthermore, if the Dems had behaved as if they were holding their noses but doing a deal for the good of the country, it would’ve sat better with those of us on the left.

    The cringeworthy mutual fawning between Cameron, Clegg, Laws & Osborne was not an edifying sight. Cable has only added to that with his pretence that something (other than politics) has changed his mind about the economy. 8-)

  45. @Eoin,

    “One of the better elements Toryism and very tempting to return to (strict upbringing) but would we be giving in to the fight I wonder? It does seem like we a fighting a losing battle…”

    I think it’s very unlikely strict discipline will ever be brought back. I don’t personally want to see a return to the cane, or strict Victorian style parenting – both of which are very cruel IMO. I just want parents to be able to say no to their children, and teachers to have the full backing of the law (and parents).

  46. Oh Amber – Hear-diddly-hear-hear.

    My endlessly boring posts reminding all of the actual election results are a plea that we don’t TOTALLY re-write history.

  47. @Sue,

    “believe it or not he is actually a quite sweet boy with kind parents. They just have no idea how to be parents.”

    That is true in many cases IMO.

  48. Sue Marsh… I would rate Helen Clark (New Zealand Premier 1999-2008) highly too.

  49. the economist is a good read i admit a bit too neo for my liking but taken in equal doses with class war OK

    joking aside the situation is much worse than anybody is admitting to

    oil is still touching $80 in a downturn, if it goes much higher and stay there the Americans drop right back into recession
    dragging us with them

    the oil is starting to run out and nobody is ready for it. until we wean ourselves off the black stuff there is little chance of growth

    that is one reason that paying off debt now could be a good idea. it might be that we all have to learn to live on less

    not me of course i live in an oil rich socialist paradise

    as i tell my brother when he complains about petrol prices “don’t sweat, that my pension your paying”

  50. @Richard in Norway,

    I think one thing is for sure – we are heading for very difficult economic times in the next half-century. The levels of economic growth we experienced prior to the economic collapse of late 2008 were never sustainable IMO.

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