There is a new ComRes poll out tonight for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from their previous poll a week and a half ago, are CON 40%(+4), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 18%(-5). As with ICM and YouGov, that represents a sharp drop in Liberal Democrat support, though ComRes are showing a rather lower level of Labour support than other companies.


487 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – 40/31/18”

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  1. Its clear who the country supports in recent polls, support for the Tories has increased dramatically. The country knows what needs to be done and the Tories are the only party who have truely faced up to it. None of this leave it to next year business, lets just get the job done. I love that about them. They will always have my vote.

  2. I think everyone should remember the strange atmosphere in which economic discussion took place before the election.

    All three parties had a pact of silence about specific cuts or taxes; when that was broken they only talked in the most general terms. And yet everyone knew that the deficit had to be tackled and the argument about the timing of it was trivial (the £6 billion involved being in the range of tax revenue variation).

    At the same time everyone was looking over their shoulder at “the markets” who needed to be “reassured”.

    So the leaderships of all three parties kept alternating between cooing at the electorate and at the City, without saying anything meaningful. So all Darling (who, like Alec, I rate) was doing his job as Chancellor in keeping the money boys from being jittery.

  3. I’m getting some “the polling is steady at 40!” deja-vu from some of these comments…

    Let’s restate, there’s so many reasons not to take these polls seriously. It’s ‘the honeymoon period’, the World Cup will have been a lot of people’s priority rather than politics, and polling outfits are all re-adjusting their weighting methods which will produce some odd swings till they settle out.

    Anyone saying anything about how these polls demonstrate ‘lasting consensus support’ for X, Y or Z, risks making themselves look very foolish within a matter of months or weeks.

  4. @ HOWARD
    “We’ve always had one resident nutter on board, but they are generally harmless- one just skips the post.”

    That was on last night’s thread but it really cheered me up in all the doom and gloom.
    Made me LOL (Laugh out loud)

  5. By the way, why do we keep using “honeymoon” about this period? With the exception of few like Wayne and Richard, who are clearly lovestruck; I get the impression that the public see the Government with a mixture of hope, worry and a certain goodwill, while expecting things to go wrong.

    More like a first date then. :)

  6. @ROGER MEXICO
    I think ‘honeymoon’ is so apt.

    We know the dominant partner.

    And we know who’s shafting who.

    I’ll probably be in moderation after this…

  7. ROGER MEXICO
    What have you got against Mayor’s ? I would have had Livingstone committed to the Tower many years ago so I would have thought he suits you sir. Boris is a credit to his Mother, Father and the Bullingdon. Why do you see farce in Sheffield, Bristol ect having a “political mayor”. Blunkett was de facto mayor in Sheffield many years ago, and look what a success comrade Hatton was in Liverpool. Do you seriously think all is well regarding the police service presently?

  8. roger mexico & mike n

    I will speak for Richard and Wayne and hope they don’t mind to much. What the 3 of us feel (and there are others) is amusement, bemusement, and some frustration, reading smart and not very smart remarks by fans of one of the worst administrations since the last world war. The jealousy regarding the LDs is as pungeant as YSL’s “youth dew” perfume.

  9. @ROLAND
    You guys can dish it out, too!

    ‘Jealous’ of the LDs? I will speak for all Lab posters here and say we’re glad it’s the LDs and not Lab in bed with the Cons.

    8-)

  10. MIKE N
    The jealousy I refer to, is feverous lust for the LDs. The Tories and Labour could never work together, but Labour thought the LDs were theirs to play with. It may be a few LDs will defect to Labour in the coming months, then again maybe not. Whatever, the spending spree is over. Soon I hope, a white male police officer might get back into the promotion stakes even against a woman or an ethnic.

  11. @ROLAND “The jealousy I refer to, is feverous lust for the LDs”

    I love your posts!
    lol

  12. I think Labour have done well, and would do well politically, to stay in the shadows for the next couple of months. The polls have repeatedly shown that people want politicians to cooperate, and whilst personally I believe the “New Politics” is something of a sham, Labour would be wrong to not let the people live a bit optimistically for a while. Labour just need to hold their nerve, be content to stay around 31, and then, when they have a new leader and the effects of the cuts are starting to be felt, they should go on the attack.

    Whilst recent polling has been fairly good for the Conservatives, it’s only when it can be called consistently, steadily good, that it is genuinely good for them. They’re going to need some strong and unwavering support to get through the next year or so, and I’m not convinced they have it.

    Bad for the Lib Dem’s, considering the “wasted vote” thing is now gone, and they’re getting so much exposure.

  13. @NICK OK
    Some good common sense and analysis there.

  14. I have read every post and people seem to take ComRes at Face Value.

    I see no reason to doubt that blue is 2-3% higher and that red are 2-3% higher..

    Labour are certainly not around the 31%

    Some of the scores YG got for them they have only hit for a fortnight period in autumn 2007 other than that you would have to go back to 2005….

    The rudderless reds are doing very well at the mo… as are blues…

    yellows 18% with ComR is a false score….

  15. Right, I can see a short sharp shock is needed (again!)

    The Tories didn’t win. Despite the worst recession for a generation, Iraq and an opposition who’d been in power for 13 years, he couldn’t win a majority.

    The LibDems lost seats.

    Labour held onto 260 seats, whitewashing Scotland, NI, Wales, the North East and most major cities. Even London weren’t totally convinced.

    The public JUST went for this austerity lark, but they are far from convinced.

    Cameron is polling Ave 42 in the honeymoon period, Blair was polling 60+

    There are already rumblings, rebellions and coups from both the LibDems and the Tory backbench.

    42% think this is all wrong.

    Whether you are Red, Yellow Blue or sky-blue-pink, you will agree that Osborne is taking a BIG risk.

    (Now then Colin, Roland, stop typing til you’ve read it all!!)

    So far, the public DO seem rather pleased with this coalition malarky though.

    They are reassured by Cameron

    They have decided they want the debt down.

    But come on now. When the cuts take EFFECT, when people start to be affected personally they MIGHT re-judge things (Note the might Colin, Roland)

    Crucially, if Osborne gets it wrong, Labour will be laughing all the way to the ballot boxes.

    If I had had to sit down with a gun to my head and choose the criteria for opposition, I don’t think I could even have dreamed of a scenario this easy for Labour.

    I really will give this lot a chance, wait to see how they do and judge them on their actions not their words. If they succeed I will be the first to acknowledge it, but lets not get too drunk on power shall we?

    Oh yes, and lets not pretend this ComRes is the only poll since the election. A fair judgement would have the Tories on 42, Labour on 35 and the Libs on 16 at this very point in time. Labour don’t even have a leader.

  16. A tidy number of posters have used this “the anti Tory vote” description of Labour and LD figures put together.
    In this current situation the entire anti Tory vote (I exclude others) is going to Labour, as a vote for LD is a vote for conservative policies and government.
    Therefore, without wishing to talk down their position, Labour must have benefited from what is effectively a 2 party choice. The Liberals need to show there natural supporters that they have controlled the Tories from right wing excesses. If they can not achieve that they are in difficulty.

  17. @ Sue Marsh

    Crucially, if Osborne gets it wrong, Labour will be laughing all the way to the ballot boxes.

    ________________________________________

    Not neccesarily. Even if thing don’t work out perfectly for the Con’s people may still blame Lab for getting us into the mess in the first place.

    In any event the cupboard will be bare money wise.

    Since one must assume that Lab will have a policy of more state spending this must ineviatbly mean more tax or more state borrowing.

    Having had to tighten thier belts for GO, will they really want to go back to the borrow/tax and spend errors of the past?

  18. Roland

    Hang on – not everyone on this site is a true-colour flag waver for one party or another! My main worry about the coalition is that they seem intent on repeating far too many of the mistakes of Labour and then adding on some extra of their own.

    With respect to your serious question about the police, I do think there are a lot of problems. You only have to look at yesterday’s report on the Met and its incredibly incompetent handling of the Reid rape cases. For all sort of historical reasons, the Police is probably worse run than any other part of the bureaucracy, except possibly defence procurement.

    But the solution isn’t another interfering politician, blown about on the winds of the Daily Mail as it says “hands off x” on page 1 and “something must be done about x” on page 5. It’s a more powerful and interventionist PCA and police inspectorate and an end to a culture of protection, no matter what crimes have been committed or how much the public has been let down.

    Sorry for a rather serious reply to a light hearted remark (I hadn’t realised how much you love Mayors), but it seemed right to use it to to discuss an area that’s going to get a lot of attention. :)

  19. ROGER MEXICO
    We certainly agree about the Police and Defence Procurement thats for sure. I suppose when I consider the difference in attitudes today and say 40 years ago, why should the Police have coped with it any better than I have. Back then promotion came from fiddling your clear up rate better than the next bloke. Now, having a dad from Bangalore is the main criteria.

  20. @Sue Marsh
    RSo the Conservatives are going to benefit from the billions of oil in the Falklands just as they did North Sea Oil. No wonder Labour looked so glum on budget day.
    I wonder if the Argies will give more bother than the Scots if there really are billions of oil there.

  21. @Roger Mexico
    Re the need for ” a more powerful and interventionist PCA and police inspectorate and an end to a culture of protection, no matter what crimes have been committed or how much the public has been let down. ”
    ——————————
    A subject dear to my heart. I have had some experience of the ruthless whitewash “complaints” regime. My complaint against an inspector was passed all the way down from the Chief Constable until I eventually received a whitewash reply – from the very same Inspector! I wish Theresa May every success in her tasks ahead.

  22. @ Johnty

    I wonder if the Argies will give more bother than the Scots if there really are billions of oil there.
    _______________________________________

    Well they play much better football than the Scots (or the English for that matter) and they will have the support of most of the South American Countries so they could certainly make life difficult if they don’t get a cut of the spoils.

  23. John T – There is now no doubt at all that there are billions of barrels of oil there. However, we are quite some way off getting it out! Plenty of time for Labour yet ;) (tongue in cheek)

  24. @JOHNTY
    Well if the Argentine chooses to resist British exploration in the “Malvinas” I dont think there is very much we can do about it. The Fisheries Protection Service (formally the Royal Navy) and the Cranwell Flying Club (formally the RAF) would be completely unable to cope. As for the Army, it can’t handle being the Yanks batmen in Afghanistan.

  25. I have thoroughly exhausted my line of enquiry into the budget document –
    I would conclude that it’s not harsh enough. If you read all of the document thoroughly Osborne has been rather generous as budgets go eg. No rise in duty on booze or ciggy’s!
    Come on George you can do better than that – tax em till their pips squeak! ….
    I think people should put their hands together and give GO a jolly good clap for being so heartfelt!… Exciting times!!

  26. Roland – Did everyone miss this??? One would think you were right. However, the Argentines recently rattled their sabres with intent. The Falklands oil companies were ready for this and had naval vessels at the ready, however, the US stepped in, and during a love in with the female President of Argentina and Hils C, Hils came away saying we should “talk it out” and come to an “accommodation”!!! There was muchos muchos astonishment from the UK – imagine telling the US that aggressors against Hawaii should be “accommodated”!!

    Anyway, should it come to it, a simple UK rabble rousing patriotic barney, may not suffice this time.

    The Argentines know that the resource recently confirmed would solve MANY of their problems and are unlikely to back off if the US are in their corner.

    Sorry for the O/T everyone, but with minds focussed on deficits and debt, the revenue from this oil is very significant indeed.

  27. I propose that anyone who habitually ends their posts with “Interesting Times” or “Exciting Times” should be put into immediate and permanent moderation.

    (ps, it has always been a pet hate of mine, only recently strengthened)

  28. @wayne – “I have thoroughly exhausted my line of enquiry into the budget document…”

    Great – thanks for the analysis – excellent. Best go and lie down after your exhaustive investigations.

    Exciting times!

  29. Anthony,

    why are some people so rude to others on here, is there something in the water? They always seem to be in the red team as well.. Rude people

    politically they are exciting times anyway !

  30. Just for comparison, North Sea oil was discovered in 1965 with small scale production starting in 1967. It wasn’t until the late 1970’s that it really began to flow in any great quantities. Rockhopper, who have discovered the find’ have a third share in the exploration rig so that will slow things down, and Shell walked away from the falklands years ago as the finds were too small.

    There’s no sign yet of the big find, but the news is styill enough to get Argentina upset and tickle the fancy of the stock market gamblers.

    Moderately interesting times!

  31. As Amber mentioned 2 LD MPs voted with Labour regarding VAT. This gave the coailition a 78 seat majority on the vote. God forbid I should be one to gloat, but I think that pretty much covers whether or not Cameron could manage a win in the last GE and suggests there will not be another one that soon.

  32. @Roland

    quite right, humongous support for the budget, both in the house and with the public. Some don’t get it though, they are either stupid or deluded!

  33. Roland,

    I agree. I never understood the expression anti-tory vote. Several parties have equal if not greater disdain for other parties above blues. Ask Tom Harris who he would rather be an MP for Blues or SNP? Laws, alexander, Clegg would all prefer blue to red…. This list goes on… the UKIP leader actually advised UKIP voters ot back the Labour candidate in Stroud…. The DUP/UUP cant make up their mind who they like

  34. Looks like OONA KING is looking good (she always does in my book) for Labour Candidate for London Mayor. A very worrying choice for a bloody old Tory. She would have much appeal. I remember one of our Labour Ladies owning up to a crush on (get this) Nigel Farage, before the GE. Well my fancy crosses party boundries were Oona is concerned. Did herself a favour on telly yesterday, one somehow sees her as a mayor rather than a cabinet minister.

  35. sue

    Latin America seems to have developed a blok mentality and Argentina will get unequivocal support from the entire Continent. in all recent disputes with the usa, govt’s left and right have been standing shoulder to shoulder. i would guess that we would get similar support from the EU at least vocally. the usa will want to remain neutral partly because of the monroe doctrine and partly because they have significant interests in the region and don’t need any more ill feeling.

    if you remember the usa were reluctant to back us in the last Falklands war MT had to use her handbag on them. the frogs were behind us all the way but behind the scenes(they never received any thanks for their help)and latin america was divided but it seemed that argies didn’t have many friends

    i think this time there will be compromise possibly 50/50 split in royalties, otherwise it gets messy and the only winners are the chinese

  36. @ Roland

    “This gave the coailition a 78 seat majority on the vote”

    I agree with you and perhaps even with your conclusion, but for the sake of pedantry :-):

    2 LibDem MPs voted against and 4 abstained (that would make more than10% of the LibDem parliamentary group). Of course, we cannot know why did not vote in such an important question (and one of them voted on the day on another issue).

  37. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    I well remember the help from France during the campaign. Super Entenards, as a delivery platform and exocets as a missile. Very handy.

  38. @Richard in Norway – can’t we just solve the bloody problem and dig from this side? It would take a bit longer and need a couple of extra drill bits, but surely better than another war?

  39. ROLAND

    they gave us the technical info on these weapons which helped us out a lot
    the french weren’t the only ones to sell weapons to the argies before the war. some of our boys were killed by british made weapons

  40. @ Richard in Norway

    “they gave us the technical info on these weapons which helped us out a lot”

    It certainly happened with Exocet. Not very willingly originally, but then they gave the code.

  41. Alex

    i would much rather give the islands back, we should never have fought a war over them. although it was convenient for some

    i think that the point that i was making was who are our friends, do we actually have any

  42. It’s just the day of pedantry.

    of the 4 LibDem MPs who were absent one, Jennifer Willott, hasn’t voted since the 7th of April, but she’s on maternity leave.

  43. @Richard in Norway
    Sorry to change the subject -but my wife’s Norwegian relatives seem very pessimistic about the future of social democracy in Norway – they think that the Norwegians are becoming individualistic and aspiratrional like the Brits – and anti-immigrant – what do you think?

  44. JOHNTY

    yes, money corrupts

    politics here are very strange. the big dividing line has been over what to do with the wheelbarrows of cash we have. one party wants to spend spend spend and the others want to invest and save. can you guess who the spenders are

  45. We are witnessing the slow inexorable decline of the Lib Dems as a serious political force – I think they may get wiped out at the next election.

  46. GARY

    i think you might be being a little melodramatic, its still early days

  47. Gary,

    If AV fails I think you will quite close to the mark……..

    (Sorry richard is Norviege)

  48. ‘GARY
    We are witnessing the slow inexorable decline of the Lib Dems as a serious political force – I think they may get wiped out at the next election.’

    If you can see so well into the future buy a lottery ticket and prove it. LDs always go down after an election. A week is a long time in politics etc.

    You are making boring predictions based on your own ego. This is a site for polls, discussion of issues and not random wish fulfilment.

  49. Pedantry No.3 – We can’t just “Give the Falklands back”. The population of the Falkland Islands decide for themselves democratically, it is in their constitution. They vote overwhelmingly to stay British.

  50. Sue Marsh. More than overwhelmingly. I was there last year, and I was assured by several Falklanders that the vote was 100%for the status quo. This must be unique for a democratic vote.

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