There is a new ComRes poll out tonight for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from their previous poll a week and a half ago, are CON 40%(+4), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 18%(-5). As with ICM and YouGov, that represents a sharp drop in Liberal Democrat support, though ComRes are showing a rather lower level of Labour support than other companies.


487 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – 40/31/18”

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  1. For historic opinion polls in graphic form google
    “Sky’s new opinion poll tracker”
    Was created in 2008 – no longer new.
    Shows the grim 1980’s in two dimensions.
    Methinks we are potentially worse off now – at least then we had the benefits of North Sea Oil to look forward to, not to mention the sale of state assets.
    Now, as Harold Macmillan might have reminded us, the family silver has long gone.

  2. whoops I needed an S in Coszmo

  3. Cosmo et al
    In booming economic areas like Westminster the plan is to get poorer people out of high demand housing. At the same time the government is apparently saying that poor people from poor areas will be moved to economically booming areas by giving them preference in council housing. This will be unthinkable to (tory) councillors in eg Westminster.
    Part of the tetchiness on this site is the uncertainty of what this government is actually going to do. Compare 1997 where the message, welcome or un-welcome, was crystal clear

  4. Outside of lead-up to elections LD’s are on their normal 18%, are they not, and the others about the same.

    On Scotland, we are told by Old Nat that they think for themselves, which I believe is supported by the last GE result. Surely the individual manifestos will play the greatest role in the elections next year rather than what is (not) happening at Westminster?

  5. @Colin & Barney – my moderated post made the point about inflated rents due to housing benefit, much as the quoted article from the Guardian. I was trying to point out that Labour made efforts to tackle this with a scheme rewarding tenants with 15% of savings if they could negotiate a lower rent. They scrapped it after getting nervous about paying out too much to tenants as the scheme was much more successful than they expected. It was a sign that the housing benefits system has largely been benefiting landlords.

    Another point to make is that inflated rents on the back of housing benefit hurts everyone who is looking to rent or buy a house. We really have to engineer a system where recipients of housing benefit share an interest in getting best value with the taxpayer and break the cycle whereby tenants can just go along with landlords to the detriment of the deficit. In the long run encouraging cheaper rents will be far better for claimants, house hunters and the homeless.

  6. @Colin & Barney – my moderated post made the point about inflated rents due to housing benefit, much as the quoted article from the Guardian. I was trying to point out that Labour made efforts to tackle this with a scheme rewarding tenants with 15% of savings if they could negotiate a lower rent. They scrapped it after getting nervous about paying out too much to tenants as the scheme was much more successful than they expected. It was a sign that the housing benefits system has largely been benefiting landlords.

  7. @Colin and Barney – still trying to get a post through moderation about the last government’s scheme to encourage benefit recipients to negotiate lower rents. It worked, but they abandoned it.

  8. @Eoin
    “Would there be a case for abolishing Council Tax?”
    ———————–
    Tough question. When I was a Councillor during the days of Poll Tax I recall the main Chamber being raided by very angry protestors. I guess we had to be grateful that it was only flour bombs which were thrown at us !

    There have been various other suggestions, the front-runner being a local income tax. This did not generate much enthusiasm. Who can come up with any suggestions for a new tax – which will also not be very unpopular? One solution is to slice off a straight % of national government tax revenue and ring-fence it for local government. But Westminster would never agree. Both major parties have squeezed their contribution to local authorities over many decades. They have dumped more responsibilities onto town halls whilst reducing their income at the same time.

    I guess I am not much help at the mo Eoin. I will have another coffee and see if I can do better. :)

    @Howard
    Yes you are correct. I can’t even spell mis-spellings properly. :)

  9. @Colin – re the unions, I worked for many years as a union rep and campaigned long and hard for a reformist approach to labour practices. Much of this time we were calling on management to have the confidence to make radical reforms. There was never a question in my mind that proper working practices benefitted everyone and that a constructive approach, albeit with a hard edge when absolutely required, was the best way to safeguard members interests and encourage greater responsibility and reward at the shop floor level. World’s change – unions should be the people ahead of the curve.

  10. @Barney Crockett
    ”In booming economic areas like Westminster the plan is to get poorer people out of high demand housing. At the same time the government is apparently saying that poor people from poor areas will be moved to economically booming areas by giving them preference in council housing.”
    ———————–
    Excellent point from you. It is fascinating to watch as the propaganda unravels when subjected to reality tests. IMO it will be very difficult for the Coalition to sing from the same hymn sheet as one ministerial “train of thought” runs into another “train” heading the opposite way. IMHO these confusions and contradictions should eventually be rewarded by lowered opinion poll ratings.

  11. Howard
    In Scotland, one thing you can be sure of id no one will know what is in the LD manifesto. Also, I think Scots vote just like other people
    Eoin
    32 of the 34 jurisdictions in EU fund local government by a property tax..or that is what I was told. SNP promised local income tax but that has stopped being mentioned

  12. Cozmo (no s in it after all I note)

    Council Tax is a farce and as an ex local member of a council you can take it from me that the people who least understand LG finance include many local councillors, at least as I discovered in my area.

    The worst electoral fraud is perpetrated by the three tier system now filled out with police and fire authorities. Most people in my area have not a clue which council does what and why. Not only this but they are unaware that general taxation provides roughly two thirds of funding and CT only a third. Not only that but it used to be more like 80% but Labour over the last decade has steadily altered the balance. Not only this but due to MH’s original banding formula some areas have far more Band C band properties and lower than others.

    If local CT payers had to cough up the whole cost of LG then there would be a riot to end all riots because of the lack of means testing in the CT bands.

  13. Perhaps my low IQ and minimal imagination, things that mark me as a Tory, are getting in the way. However, the present numbers suggest to me that there is a decent overall support for the coailition and its policies. The supporters are saying, “the Tories are in the driving seat, might as well not muck about, I will vote Tory. The anti’s who cling on to anything rather than face up to truth and pain, say vote LD get Tory, I dont want that, I will vote Labour. I wished I could remember the LD poster before the GE who semi predicted this. Its very dangerous territory for the Libs on a national basis. They run the risk of being consumed like brown rice and yogurt.

  14. Cozmo
    Thanks a lot
    More on this later
    Howard
    Bang on with councillors Scary

  15. Alec
    Look forward to reading as always

  16. Well I am almost stuck for words! A freebie Council newspaper has just popped through my letterbox. Great timing. It is from my local County Council ( Derbyshire ) and it has lots of articles about how well we are being served, and the wonderful value for money we are getting. The Conservatiives took control one year ago. What would Mr Pickles have to say I wonder. Surely he would not call it – “propaganda funded by ratepayers” – ??

    It has an article about reducing expenditure ( best to avoid a c word ). It says:-
    ——————-
    ”These new c*ts – and the £60 million plus we need to balance our books over the next four years – will have an impact. With the best will in the world we can’t stop it affecting the services you get from us.
    And – along with the reduction in our capital spending – they will also mean less work put out to the private sector, fewer contracts and fewer jobs all round.”
    ———————-

    Phew!! I need to lie down in a darkened room. So what about cutting out all the “irresponsible waste” we heard so much about ? This seems to be the stuff of downward spiral and recession. I may post more later when I have had a little rest. ;)

    @Howard
    Thanks. Will reply later.

  17. Ed Balls must be resisitng the tempatation to say “I told you so”. With the latest announcement in police cuts, Labour would be hypocritical to condemn them. For as Allistair Darling clearly said- Labour cuts would be worse than Thatcher.

    Had Balls been listened to more by Brown and Labour had pursued a core vote strategy, at least reds would be able to criticise some of these cuts…. alas instead they can only view from the sidelines…

    The damage down to Brown by Labour infighting will hang over the aprty for the lifetime of this parliament. Any blue with half a titter ot wit would repost every red criticism of blue cuts with Darling’s quote.

    What a silly silly man I have always thought Allistair Darling to be. He is that egotistical all he ever cared about was his own skin…

  18. @ Eoin

    Ref Ed Balls. A Darling et al.

    I don’t think the leader of the Labour party that will evertually beat DC will come from the current crop. They are just too tainted.

    As I have said before, DC has that invaluable comodity, Luck.

    If only some of it could rub off onto our sportsmen. >:(

  19. John F,

    Until Boxing day at the earliest- you guys hold the ashes. That in my book is the most valuable prize in team sport. :)

  20. @ Eoin

    You have taste sir, and isn’t your counrtyman and names sake Eoin Morgan doing well :D

  21. ALEC @ 11.13am

    Yes-interesting.
    Howard Davies was just on DP. He said HB is a major nightmare to solve:-
    Fraud rampant.
    Landlords creaming it.
    Difficult to “winnow” the deserving from the abusers.
    ….but something has to be done.

    ALEC @ 11.24

    Thanks-I can imagine -if I may say so-that your attitudes would have been constructive & “ahead of the curve”.

    Sadly though-we don’t have you-we have Jack Dromey & co-just on DP rewriting history, and trotting out the line that ALL public expenditure is on SERVICES, and is ABSOLUTELY VITAL for the economy.

    Just seen the ACPO man being very positive about the Governments attitude to Policeforce spending-concentrating on outcomes, not numbers.

    Encouraging-looks like cooperation in that area at least. He was very careful to distinguish a cut in ” Policeforce” numbers from “Police” numbers-something the BBC failed to do!

    If Orde is indicative of Police Chiefs’ approach, then at least in that “union” we have people prepared to distinguish cuts in “front line” from cuts in “peripheral/ nice to have”. That is the only way to go on this whole thing.

  22. @ Colin

    Ref Police.

    I also think that particularly with the Met there needs to be a complete change of empasis in policing.

    Another article in the papers (Independent) today about the ploice arresting a photographer going about his lawful business. Luckinly he captured it on is mobile phone. The police tired to arrest him for “photographing children” , then under prevention of terrorism and finaly resorted to “disorderly conduct”.

    The Met has become far too politicised IMO and needs to go back to catching villans.

  23. EOIN
    I wont disagree with a word you say, however Darling was, I think, trying to show people who knew there will be blood, that Labour were aware cuts were needed.
    The hard core well left of centre Labour supporter who quite simply will not accept their should be any reductions in the lot of the toiling masses, along side the great Caledonian begging bowl, are just not numerous enough to win a GE. I guess he had to talk a bit “tuff”.

  24. @ ROLAND

    ” Darling was, I think, trying to show people who knew there will be blood, that Labour were aware cuts were needed.”

    Yes -I agree Roland.

    I think he was fed up of the GB “don’t mention the cuts” line, and had become embarrased by the lack of credibility GB had cloaked the Treasury in.

    I think he had some integrity-a rare commodity.

  25. @JOHN FLETCHER
    To true John, all Police Forces have been New Labourised, the Met above all. It will take a long time to change as well. The political correctness issues are nothing short of a scandal.

  26. @ JOHN FLETCHER

    Yes-like Roland-I agree.

    I think the policy of publicly elected police chiefs might go some way to removing the problem-but I gather Police Chiefs are resisting it …………on the grounds that it might “politicise” the police forces !!

  27. John F,

    Didn’t Gough get a hat trick down under many moons ago?

    It would be nice if Morgan or Joyce went but I cant see it… you have some better players coming back to fitness..

    It was always a pity that Thorpe and Trescothwick did not travel well…. two crucial players in their day
    ____________________
    Colin/Roland

    Dont doubt for a minute that there was and is a strain of thought running through labour that would not have cut a penny…. Gordon BRown was not being dishonest he simply up until the showdown did not support the idea of cuts… I do not myself as you well know…

    Darling was unfairly credited for being honest. He should have simply been credited (rightly or wrongly) for being more centrist or day I say monetarist in his approach to deficit reduction.

    It would cause Balls, Brown and others no consternation whatsoever had the deficit been doubel what it was….

  28. Publicly elected Police Chiefs is a daft idea unless there is compulsory voting; without it all the daft politics groups like the BNP / UKIP / EDL etc will try and get their person elected and will succeed due to voter apathy.

    I certainly don’t want one elected to fulfil the demands of the Daily Mail readers of the world. I want a skilled professional to get the job due to the quality of the experience and knowledge, not weather he appeals to a daft section of the public.

    In other words I have no desire at all for the waste of time which is ‘bobbies on the beat’. They should have something better to do with their time than meandering around, going for a stroll. Police on the street in my opinion means an area is dodgy and should be avoided. (But I recognise I am not as paranoid as tabloid press readers.)

  29. @ JACK

    ” all the daft politics groups like the BNP / UKIP / EDL etc will try and get their person elected ”

    ….just like in a General Election then.

    “I have no desire at all for the waste of time which is ‘bobbies on the beat’. They should have something better to do with their time than meandering around, going for a stroll. Police on the street in my opinion means an area is dodgy and should be avoided”

    …………………except by the people who live there?………or do they have to move out?

  30. @ Jack

    I agree – there is already a local councillor who liases with the police force here. Therefore we already have an elected local representative who deals with policing issues. I assume it’s the same in other areas. 8-)

  31. I have now completed a very thorough review of the Comres tables and data. I conclude that they have quite possibly got the torys understated 3-4%. labour look about right 30ish !..exciting times!

  32. EOIN

    “Gordon BRown was not being dishonest he simply up until the showdown did not support the idea of cuts”

    I disagree-he did not support the idea of telling people Labour would have to cut-so that he could repeat the endless mantra ” Tories Cut- Labour Spends”.

    He loved political wedges ( dividing lines were far too ephemeral for him ) -permanent, unbrigeable, fundamental, right vs wrong, fair vs unfair, values vs no values, “the many not the few”.

    He loved this stuff-it was what he was-a tribal politician………just like Ed Balls.

  33. Jack/Amber/Colin

    The concept of Empowerment first trialled by Blair now taken up by Cameron is an extension of active citizenship.

    This idea is that if we get a say we are more likely to acquiecse.

    One problem: Those less likely to be active citizens are those less likely to vote, are those less likely to acquiesce.

    I like the idea myself but as Jack says, without compulsory voting you achieve nothing.

  34. @ Colin, Roland

    RE: Darling’s “honesty & integrity”

    ‘Tis amazing how honesty & integrity matches neatly with “telling people what they want to hear”. 8-)

    @ Éoin

    Yvette did a good job of dismantling the budget. If Ed B is elected leader, I don’t think YC could be chancellor. I’d like to see her in that role. Ed’s more likely to get it though, if he doesn’t win the leadership.

    Or do you think Alistair will try to hold on to that role?
    8-)

  35. I won’t put up with criticism of Darling. He was the most honest of Labour’s lot, and what he said and did made sense – and still does. Where Labour made the mistake was not in refusing to admit cuts were necessary, but in not identifying a progressive path to cut spending.

    I will mercifully refrain from boring you all senseless by repeating again some of the spending I would have targetted, but Labour could have entered what should have been a new era of the post free market financial crisis with a completely radical set of ideas aimed at reducing the deficit and equalising some of the injustices without the old fashioned resort of just piling up more welfare spending.

    For example, how about tackling excessive private sector pay (we all know it’s excessive) through a variable Corporation Tax rate depending on the hourly pay differential between a companies lowest and highest paid workers? The Treasury could set a mutliplier (like John Lewis use) and levy 2% more CT if this is breached. Boards then have to justify to shareholders why they pay themselves too much as it starts to hit the bottom line.

    The Tories opened the door on this particular idea by correctly identifying excessive public sector pay but have been strangely reticent about the private sector. There were a host of other ideas Labour could have gathered together, but instead they have effectively wasted a good crisis. If they and the unions end up merely attacking cuts and waiting for the coalition to lose popularity the banking crisis will have been all for naught.

  36. @Wayne – “I have now completed a very thorough review of the Comres tables and data. I conclude that they have quite possibly got the torys understated 3-4%. labour look about right 30ish !..exciting times!”

    Well done – excellent. I knew there was something fishy about those figures.

    Even now I see people marching past my house with banners proclaiming their love for Cameron.

  37. @ Colin

    I think clear dividing lines in politics are a good thing. What is the point of having more than one party if they take an almost identical approach to areas where there is uncertainty.

    Almost everybody agrees that there are at least 2 (if not more) ways to deal with the current economic situation. Why should the Labour Party not put the alternative view?

    IMO, Darling’s triangulation on this cost Labour the election. Labour Tribe, not New Labour, had the election winning approach. 8-)

  38. Amber,

    TO give AD credit- I do think he is at all power hungry so he will be agonner…

    Ed B wont be leader (on balance I accept that is prob for the best)

    In which case I think Yvette Cooper would be an outstanding chancellor. Andy Burnham would pick her I am sure ….. I reckon Ed Mil would too….

    David M’s shadow cabinet would be much harder to judge… I think he would leave Ed B in Education and have Yvetter as Shadow Business secretary to Vince… Possilby with Andy Burnham in that role…

    Either way It will be great to have Andy B , Yvtte Cooper, Ed Mill, Ed Ball and D Mill on Labour’s front bench

    Quite an energetic and imaginative Front Bench…

    I wonder would Alan Johnson stay on at Health?

  39. @ Colin

    There never was a proposal for publicly elected police chiefs – was for an elected official with oversight. No doubt the local councillor who Amber describes will be replaced with someone with an enormous salary.

    Then there’s the associated deputies and assistants and publicists and policy advisers and consultants and secretariats and reports to be produced. Typical Conservative policy: loads of extra bureaucrats and politically correct nonsense. ;)

    Then there’s the question of who gets elected. Look at those elected as Mayors and ask yourself if that fills you with much confidence. (The endless possibilities for black farce must be why the Tories want England’s 12 largest cities to have them. Got to keep the people amused).

    The truth is that it’s just another idea borrowed from the Americans by the political elite, without actually understanding how the US system works, with its checks and balances and variations and risks.

  40. JohnT – I LOVE that. Shows about as clearly as can be why the Tories should never have won in 1992.

  41. John T – Re State assets. Looks like there’s BILLIONS of barrels of oil under the Falklands we can get to now.

  42. @ Alec

    I won’t put up with criticism of Darling.
    ———————————————–
    Are you going to have Anthony bar me from this site, then? ;-)

    You yourself are criticising him – by the back door – in saying, “There were a host of other ideas Labour could have gathered together, but instead they have effectively wasted a good crisis.”

    Alistair was the man who could’ve used the things you have suggest e.g. chopping pension tax breaks for high earners, using CT to incentivise fairer pay structures etc. Criticism, Alec – ’tis the lifeblood of ideas & debate. Long may you continue to critique the policies of all chancellors. 8-)

  43. Roland – Brown Rice and Yoghurt, Champagne and Caviar, Pie and Mash? :)

  44. @Roger Mexico – “Typical Conservative policy: loads of extra bureaucrats and politically correct nonsense”

    Interestingly Boris has 6 advisers paid £100,000+ while Dave has just 2.

    @Amber Star – forgive me – excess of flowery language. You criticise who you like as much as you like.

  45. Alec,

    In your paradigm of thought everything makes perfect sense.

    Have you ever considered that some other have different paradigms?

    Freezing spending is not cuts. Raising Tax is not cuts. Investing for growth is not cuts. Efficiences savings (of which there are many) are not cuts… It is quite possible to pursue a centruy of economic governance without ever needing to cut. To cut is to turn around and walk backwards, into an abyss. An ideological point I accept but a genuinely held principled stance. That AD disagreed with it does not win him a nobel prize for honesty. The right wing media salivated ever time he said cuts- rarely does that mean your being honest- it simply means you are agreeing with them.

    Cherish ideological differences- or in your case logical differences, since I do not think you are ideologically driven.

  46. I’m not getting into whether AD was right or wrong, but if I was elected leader, I’d be making sure I had a raft of policies for making cuts fairer and I’d be emphasising like crazy that it is the scale and timing of the cuts that will cause the damage.

  47. @ Sue – what you just said is spot on. As chancellor, AD had the job of saying what we could afford – call it savings, cuts, spending reductions, fiscal correction – it really doesn’t matter. The rest of the government should have been working on ways to deliver this in a fair and progressive way but they didn’t.

    To be fair to them, after 13 years it is extraordinarily difficult to change mindsets mid stream.

  48. @ Sue Marsh

    Yes – the aftermath of this budget should be an opportunity for leadership contestants to produce an alterbative vision for the economy.

    ‘Tis what we are all waiting for, truth be told. This will, IMO, decide the outcome of the leadership contest. 8-)

  49. @ ALEC

    :-)
    8-)
    :-)

  50. @WAYNE

    You’re not some alter ego of Bill Roy, are you?

    It’s just that you seem to be a polls alchemist, too, like dear ol’ Bill.

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