There is a new ComRes poll out tonight. Topline voting intention figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 21%(nc). Clearly there is no significant change since ComRes’s last poll in mid-May, with all the parties well within the margin of error.


141 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – 37/33/21”

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  1. Blues walloped reds by nearly 2million votes. That is pretty conclusive.

  2. I think we’ve flogged this one to death. Roll on the next poll and we can do it all again!

  3. @Amber Star

    This is a rather odd comment. I don’t think any Labour supporter expects a VI bounce from the strikes.

    I think Eoin may have alluded to it in an early post in relation to lecturers etc.

    The traditional Labour anti media bias, how long can we go on with this undermining of a free press,

    Papers sell because they are popular and reflect the public opinion, that is why The Guardian only survives with tax payer subsidy via the public sector job ads.

  4. @ CLIFF

    The traditional Labour anti media bias, how long can we go on with this undermining of a free press,
    ——————————————————-
    Another odd comment. Who said anything about undermining the free press or Labour anti-media bias?

    I made the point that the mainstream media does not, on the whole, approve of unions or union membership.

    Therefore, if Labour believe in unions (& one would think they do!), then they need to find another way of communicating with the electorate about unions & union membership.

    I don’t think this could be construed as a partisan or inflammatory point of view.

  5. @Eoin,

    “Evidence of a 5% bounce for blueys? Hmmm…. that would have them 41-2%”

    Most of the pre-election polls, within 2-3 weeks of the GE, showed the Blues on 34-36%. They are now on 37-39%, which is a 3-5% increase on pre-election polls (not on the GE, which is where we must make the distinction).

    “Sorry, but whatever you say, this poll is great for Lab. Not great for Tories. Disaster for LD’s.
    IMHO.”

    Not sure I agree with that. The Tories have certainly maintained their lead over Labour whilst increasing their own vote. Labour have had a post-election bounce too, admittedly. The net losers so far in the polls seems to be the Libs IMO.

  6. Amber/Cliff

    In 1997 Labour amassed such a massive lead among the youth for reasons that are readily explained in demographics akin to other Liberal deomcracies.

    One factor though which these education strikes will add to is the gult between educationalists and blues.
    Education is the greatest opportunity the poor will ever get. When blues come into conflcit with educationalsits they fuel the anti-blue bias among those who rely on education. This less affects yuppies sicne they have daddies inheritance or other connections. But those that prosper from meritocracy watch threats to it like a hawk.

    That is why both UNIs and Skulls are threatening to striek before they have probably even read the small print of legislation. Which I suppose it a pity if you are Michael Gove.

  7. “The traditional Labour anti media bias, how long can we go on with this undermining of a free press”
    —————-
    In what way are Mr Mudrock’s newspapers “free” ??

  8. Matt,

    Yes I see your 3-5% now. And I do think that is a fair statement. Sorry about that.

  9. @Eoin,

    No need to apologise. I think a Tory bounce of around 3-4% is probably a fairer reflection of where we are at. The Labour vote has increased as well – probably by a similar amount.

  10. When I say a fairer reflection, I mean that the bounce is somewhere in the 3-5% range, but I think we can average this out at around 3.5-4% IMO.

  11. Matt,

    Since we have no proper post morten or methodological changes from the pre-election polling. You are very right to say 5% in some cases. My mind had a leave of absence. Sorry again.

  12. @CLIFF
    There is nothing wrong or partisan regarding your comment.
    Stand easy that man. What is a worry, well not really a worry but a nuisance, is this Labour whine which has just sprung up. The world is against us, even the Guardian does’nt love us anymore.
    The thought never crosses their minds that potential backers like the Indy, to some extent Times and in the gutter the currant bun, have been driven away by the sheer impossibility of supporting the personalities and actions of the last couple of years. Please, Please, Please, dont anybody start on about the BBC, because my fellow nasties will retaliate and its boring as hell.

  13. @Eoin,

    “Matt,

    Since we have no proper post morten or methodological changes from the pre-election polling. You are very right to say 5% in some cases. My mind had a leave of absence. Sorry again.”

    Yes, I forgot about the methodological changes. You’re probably right in that it would probably provide the blues with a boast of circa 1% IMO.

    My mind has been absent of late, as you have probably noticed. XD

  14. “Please, Please, Please, dont anybody start on about the BBC”
    ————————
    Sorry – the temptation is too great :)
    Just mention Nick Robinson for example ;)

  15. How on earth people can say that 21% is a ‘disaster’ for the Lib Dems is beyond me! This is a tad down on the GE share of the vote but still very respectable. Seems to me that there’s no great movement for anyone at the moment and that only after a few months will we see how its really going for all the parties…

  16. How did you lot manage a dispute about the media? They clearly do not influence votes to any great extent so let them print what they want.

    I am quite excited that the Guardian is rudderless. I never liked the paper anyway.

    People underestimate just how rigorous the Daily Telegraph can be (expenses aside, which I mostly ignored if I am honest).

  17. Richard,

    From 34%?

  18. @Richard,

    You are quite right that the Lib vote hasn’t changed that much since the GE result. However, I would be slightly concerned that the polls have, in the past, overestimated the Lib vote by a good 3-4%. This would leave the Lib vote in the high teens.

    I’m sure the polls will change though. If nothing else, the extra exposure will give the Libs a chance to do better at the next GE, especially if they manage to get a positive AV referendum result. Managing to play a part in resolving the country’s current economic problems would also benefit the Libs during the next GE too.

  19. Too many posters seem to be wanting a re-run of the last election.

    The reality is that we have a strong and stable liberal conservative coalition for some time to come.

    All this and the other opinion polls are reflecting is a very slight and moveable realignment since the coalition set up shop. This is the new starting point of opinion that with bchange of boundaries, possible voting system etc will throw up a completely different result than under the 2010 version.

    Time to move on

  20. I’ve mentioned this strange fact before, that considering the Tories ‘won’ the election, some of their supporters here seem to be particularly bad tempered.
    Yes, Roland, I mean you. ;)

  21. @JACK JACKSON
    I do believe the Con/Lib alliance (which you view as I do) has deeply upset some people of a certain disposition somewhat more than a 70 seat Tory majority would have done.

  22. It feels like we are in a tiem warp here. Could we all move on?

    A month ago Reds trailed yellows sometimes by 5-6%
    A month on Reds lead yellows by 12%.

    That is 17-18% in four or five weeks. That should cheer reds.
    _______________________

    Yellow and blue have c60ish %- let them get on with governing.

  23. @JULIAN GILBERT
    Sooner be a grouch than a loser, ner ner ner nar nar.

  24. “I’m sure the polls will change though. If nothing else, the extra exposure will give the Libs a chance to do better at the next GE”

    Or crash and burn so spectacularly that they are never heard from again .

  25. “The reality is that we have a strong and stable liberal conservative coalition for some time to come.”

    See how brainwashing works? (Strong and Stable, *shudder*)

  26. @SUE MARSH
    When the leftie LDs or the Tory right, or both, or some other faction, have made 4 (four) attempts to remove Cameron, then I think a Labour supporter can take the mick out of Strong & Stable.

  27. Julian Gilbert

    “I’ve mentioned this strange fact before, that considering the Tories ‘won’ the election, some of their supporters here seem to be particularly bad tempered.”

    I don’t think its strange at all. You’re wrong as your quotes suggest you realise. Nobody won the election, least of all the Tory right. They have been neutered by the parliamentary arithmetic which will give the Con whips an easy ride.

    Almost exactly half of Con MP’s are first timers hopeful of promotion. They will behave themselves and be compliant wherever they lie on the political spectrum.

    John Major’s problems came from senior backbenchers passed over for office and nearing the end of their careers. Returning MP’s will be first in line for junior appointments and, were it not for the LibDems, there would be barely enough of them once the incompetents, alcoholics and those with a discreditable past known to the whips are excluded.

    The parliamentary right will be quiet unless and until the party looks set for an assured majority.

    Even if a few of them try to cause trouble, they can easily be ignored.

    The right y have lost their influence in the party and though they may blame DC, in their saner moments they may recognise – as did the left of the Laoour party under TB – that had the party presented itself in the election in a manner that would have appealed to them, and if it had adhered to that position post-election, then it would have been impossible for the LibDems to offer a coalition. There would not be a Conservative in government.

  28. Roland – Saying something enough times doesn’t make it so. The phrase makes it sound as though they are trying to convince themselves.

  29. @JOHN B DICK
    Interesting post.
    If as you say the Tory right has been tamed by DC, then this coalition will actually be good for the Tories.
    That’s a big if mind.
    I still think it will be a disaster for the LD’s though.

  30. @Sue,

    “Or crash and burn so spectacularly that they are never heard from again .”

    Very true. That’s why I said ‘a chance’. :)

  31. No one knows what will happen with this coalition government. It may last, it may not. We can make predictions all day, rather like people are making with the World Cup, but even the best political analyst doesn’t really know whether the coalition will last the full term. So when reds, blues and yellows say X will happen, they are usually just trying to convince themselves because they are worried. Doesn’t stop us all from speculating though, I guess. :)

  32. Julian,

    I agree 100% on the outcome for yellow

  33. The plain truth is that the polls are pretty much where they were about 8 or 9 weeks ago as the election was called. They’ve traveled a long way in that time but, in the end, they’re back to where public opinion had been holding for some time previously, and I think it’s not likely to change radically anytime soon.

  34. The stability of he polls is somewhat surprising – perhaps people are waiting for something that could be a pretext to change their mind or reinforce their choices. I found the distribution of this poll somewhat suspect (makes it impossible to compare it to other polls).

    Bar a scandal that would reinforce the doubts raised in relations to Laws, the only thing in the near future is the Emergency Budget. If it’s anything like what Jack Jackson suggested (I think it won’t be too far from the final), it would almost certainly result in a double dip, and hence without a quick bounce back, would make the perception of economic incompetence of the government well grafted in the mind of the people.

    There are long term ones as well, but there are too many potential outcomes. For example, I am quite sure that the current processes in higher education do not please the middle classes and could cause a shift among them in voting intention- however, as they cannot move to the Liberals (as they would be perceived guilty as well), who do they turn to?

  35. ” the only thing in the near future is the Emergency Budget”

    I think The Budget could be a positive for the Government. It will be a showcase for Labour incompetence-a Pandora’s Box of horrors-or at least presented thus. It will be GO’s opportunity to lay into GB’s record.

    The sdpending envelopes in it will not tell of where the pain will come.

    This will be in the Departmental Spending statement in the late autumn. This was always going to be Labour’s nemesis, because the “blame” would have been their own.

    The Government can escape some ( not all) of the outcry if the Budget has been “appropriately” presented.

    The wrecked Euro economies are certainly a threat to ours, just as export order books are picking up.

    …..and then there is inflation. The BoE had better be right that this is temporary. If it isn’t it will be a major problem :-
    * By by to “sustained” low interest rates
    *Wage demands-strikes
    * Peoples pockets being hit
    * Unit cost of servicing Government debt rises.

    That last one was always the big risk Labour left us with-High Debt/LOw Growth would be enough of a problem.
    High Debt/Low Growth/Rising Interest Rates is the nightmare.

  36. “t will be a showcase for Labour incompetence-a Pandora’s Box of horrors-or at least presented thus. It will be GO’s opportunity to lay into GB’s record.”
    ——————————
    More partisan blue-tinted c**p.
    Will it be moderated ?
    Some recent blue posts have criticised reds –
    “still fighting the GE” & “time to move on” ?

  37. COZMO

    “or at least presented thus”

    THat is the key phrase-perhaps you missed it ?

  38. @Cozmo
    The difference is that the election is indeed over. Sadly the same cannot be said for the economic mess.

  39. All I can say is “Damn lies and statistics” talking about cuts because of eurozone problems is a complete smokescreen. The USA under Reegan presided over Trillion dollar debts and trade defecits and it didn’t seem to harm them. If the debt is manageable it will not be a problem. I have said it here before that for the last 30 years only 3 have produced surplus budgets 2 of those under labour. Yes the 12% defecit is high but under john major this was as high as 8% while the EU target is 3%. Blame labour as much as you like but the alternative to not spending is completely unthinkable and I wouldnt be suprised to see unemployment higher than 4 million if there was no support in the economy.

  40. what amazes me is how far the labour electorate have become soviet type clientele bought and maintained in a manner with which they should not have become accustomne the co alition has blown the whistle on so many mal practices and yet the labour vote holds up the supporters of a party that returns margaret hodge and hazel blears has a lot to be deeply ashamed of

  41. RPARKER

    If us labour supporters have been bought, well I am still waiting for my cheque. Can you elaborate on these malpractices? Another ill informed statement I suppose. There seems to be a misconception that the only people that vote labour are those on benefits and oublic sector workers, yet there is probabably not one person who has benefited from labour policies such as: free health, comprehensive education, equal pay, anti discrimination laws, devolution, family/child/pension credits, public housing, open university and equal access to higher learning. The fcats are that labour has always invested in our economy and our people, something that the conservatives have generally either failed to do or have been reluctant to do.

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