As well as the figures from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll there is also a new ICM poll out today, the first monthly ICM/Guardian poll since the election. Topline figures with changes from ICM’s last poll are CON 39%(+1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 21%(nc)…exactly the same as the latest YouGov figures. 59% of people approve of the coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, with 32% opposed.

There was also a question on PR – 56% of people said they supported a more proportional electoral system, 38% were opposed.

670 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – 39/32/21”

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  1. @Howard,

    The PR dawn will have you voting for the Animal Party yet ;-)

    See earlier post”

    LOL. Have just read it. Thanks. ;-)

  2. Roland
    Personally, I am with Dr Fox

    Expand a bit. Does he regard the Afghan action as tactical, operational or strategic? Does he know the difference?

    Yes I know he ought to, but perhaps more importantly does Mr Obama? I’m not convinced that the US feels any other global commitment is required other than to be patrolling somewhere

  3. @Amber,
    I am mostly playing devils advocate… I have wrote at length on the economy but mostly on its impact on women…

    It all depends what apradigm you are in. I have read Smith’s work In fact I have wrote at length on the economy of the eighteenth and nineteenth century….

    I have studied and wrote pieces on the role of women in the economy. I will include a bit for you if you like. Its a pit yI could not give you them all.

  4. Amber,

    The best economy in a British Context is Michael Hechter. Emmauel Wallerstein I aslo reccomend.

  5. Amber,

    I include a piece of my own writings

    Wallerstein argues that whilst women within the workplace sometimes comprise the greater proportion of the unskilled labour, they do not always reap the profits. For instance, Judith Bennett’s seminal study on women who brewed ale in England showed the exclusion of women from the profitable aspects of the ale trade. From 1300, women dominated the brewing of ale within England. After the 1348 plague, however, there was a significant change within the ale market with the development of beer. Beer had a longer life span, and was easier to transport. This led to the emergence of male brewers.
    For now, women retained their role in the ale industry. In the century after the plague, beer outsold ale in the markets. Men by engaging in the brewing of beer took the most profitable aspect of the trade. Even so female brewers faced heavy criticism for continuing their trade, since they provided competition of sorts. Bennett recalled folklore, which labelled women brewers as ‘temptresses’ and ‘devils’. This vilification by men toward female brewers was a direct attempt to undermine the female ale trade. Men justified their takeover of the brewing trade by this means. Bennett and Jewell’s studies of the brewing trade, highlight Wallerstein’s theory of women’s marginalisation within the economy. Bennett’s study shows the gradual exclusion of women from the profitable aspects of the trade over a period of over four hundred years.
    In 1700, legislation passed by parliament made it illegal for women to produce ale. The extent to which men attempted to exclude women from the profit of the ale trade is evident in the number of women who faced fines for the breach of the assize of ale. By 1750, women sold rather than produced ale. Even then, women’s role in selling ale was not without contest. Bennett stated that women who sold ale undermined their husband’s authority in that they flirted with their male customers. In addition, men viewed women’s control over money as unnatural. This shows how women’s work left them excluded from the profits. Jewell showed that women faced these fines because they sold their ale under an anonymous name, in order to receive the profit. This point further highlights the increasing invisibility of women within the trade.

    Allow me to lower the tone, a woman who knew how to brew good ale, and who responded well to not being beaten. It would have been worth risking the Black Death and leprosy to have lived in that brave morning.

  7. Roland,

    :P :P :P

  8. @ Éoin

    I still think you would enjoy Ralston Saul’s book – even if you are an expert. ;-)

    I do not think the women brewers were targeted because they were women. In times of economic difficulty, one group generally responds by trying to eliminate competition from another group.

    Right now, in the UK, it is economic migrants. Last time around t’was women too. As Mrs T encouraged the closure of male dominated industries, women were called on to give up their jobs to make room for the men! Most of us didn’t of course. 8-)

  9. Amber,

    Of course you are very right to say that migrants are also targetted but they are targetted by the under-class not by the propertied elite. in fact elements of the propertied elite welcome ‘scab labour’. It drives down wages, as does unemployment which some also welcome.

    Breadwinner ideology is alive and kicking. Presbyerian heartlands of Scotland would not dream of letting the wife out the front door. So in some areas, It is still women who are targetted. The same presbyterian heartlands ironically rely on Eastern European labourers… the work is more manual, which in Britain there seems to be a notion that women cannot do heavy industry/labour…

  10. Amber,

    i am in Library now, I’ll go track down your book :)

  11. @HOWARD
    Dr Fox I believe, understands that Afghanistan is not a British responsibility. The PC lingo of the BBC does not replace the shattered arm or leg of a British Serviceman or “unkill” him. Our responsibility is to protect British citizens from attacks from terrorists trained “on Afghans dusty plain” not to introduce Girls Grammar Schools. The corruption and graft which is the natural way of things in the middle east, will not be going any time soon, we (A)cannot afford it, and (B) dont have the stomach for it for very much longer.

  12. Brewing competition
    You knew you were going to get something like this. North of Amsterdam lies the town of Zaandam. Its rise as an industrial ( food processing) place is not least to thank to the fact that the workers’ guilds in the capital city were against mechanisation which those windmills, now viewed romantically, represented.

    It was ever so and of course is to be seen in the BA strike against reduction in their conditions of service, brought about by liberalisation.

  13. Roland
    Thanks for that. I agree totally.
    The action is of course a NATO one to which Blair signed up in the Blair Bush days and which could have been finished with the bombing in the Bora Bora safely from 10000 feet. Perhaps assisted with a few mopping up special forces actions.

    So in terms of this list discussion the poll results are clear and correct. But Fox is not putting an end date to this NATO commitment (we have done more than ‘our bit’ ) and he needed to do this, as other countries have done.

  14. @Howard,

    Yes Luddites the are known as, they first roamed south England after the Nepoleanic wars smashing up weaving looms & ‘spinning jenny’s’ for fear the would take away labour.

    Centerfuge equipment which led to the creation of margarine was also resisted…. I’m sure there are many examples.

  15. Eoin
    The public has been somewhat equivocal about BA. I suspect the difference with the Luddites is that then there was no social security and one is not aware of Easy jet employees as slaves.

    I remember Reagan sacking all 10,000 traffic controllers and this was the most amazing lock out ever perpetrated. Well worth a history I would have thought.

  16. @Howard,

    Union busting is an American forte…. Sarkozy could learn a trick or two.

    Thankfully, it does not often come to that here (fingers crossed) :)

  17. Matt – “Also worth noting that many of the Tory’s thinkers/voters are working class these days (like myself ). That was Labour’s failings at the last GE – to appease enough of the working class people.”

    Sounds just like “White Van Man” or “Essex Man” from the 80s to me. It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last. The question for Cameron is can he hold them this time? After Maggie they deserted quite drastically.

  18. Sue

    I would like some polling research evidence that white van man, – Colin loves sterotypes ;-) , switches between Lab and Con. I’m not saying it isn’t true, I don’t think we have sufficient evidence.

  19. Sue/Howard

    I can offer evidence that traditionally 1/3 of the working class have backed blues since the 1860s. Their jingoistic foreign policy (Khatroum, Suez, Boer, India, Hong Kong, Falklands) has long been one of the main attractions.

  20. I don’t know Howard, but anecdotally I can say I worked in a factory through uni holidays to pay my way and in 92 not one single one of them was going to vote Labour.

    In 97, my old council estate was a sea of red posters again, so certainly the working class had a significant proportion of “swingers” down my way ;)

  21. Actually, statistically this must be quite easy to find out, Anthony probably knows. Did a significant proportion of CD voters switch from Con to Labour in 97? Did they switch back this time?

  22. Eoin
    This is ‘Gaw lubbaduck sa, ain’t ya a toff’ stuff – I don’t buy it except that the Falklands did resurrect what I would have never believed after the sixties apparent rejection of it.

    But it still only takes one ‘Frog speed traps here’ headline in teh Sun does it not?

    How bloody depressing. Baldrick alive and well.

  23. Howard/Sue,

    It is also worth pointing out that a lot of these people view themselves as middle-class and aspirational. They most likely think their hopes chime with that of blueys…

    It was not hard to construct an argument that LAbour was not on the side of the honest hard working familys..

    Immigration/Social Security- they both peeve sufficient numbers…

  24. Yes I have to admit that I cited Filton and Bradley Stoke as the barometer for the same reasons that Eoin has just outlined and I said so at the time.

    And this was ‘sadly broke’ in the late 80s. I am now totally depressed and will as I am sure Roland will aprreciate going to start on a bottle of the right stuff.

  25. Sue – here are MORI’s aggregate figures of how people voted this time round, the biggest swing was indeed amongst C2’s (the social class characterised as “white van man”).

    Linked from the same page are MORI’s aggregates for previous elections. In 1997 all social groups swung towards Labour, but the largest swings were AB and C1.

  26. Is this a record? Five consecutive polls over a 10 day period showing one party (in this case the Lib Dems) on precisely the same vote share in all five polls?

  27. Ooooh, thanks Anthony, many a happy hour for me.

  28. Really interesting Anthony

    From these figures the Tory support appears evenly spread, between all classes except DE and even in this group the difference has greatly reduced.

  29. @AW Thanks I didn’t know this blog was still going -just what i need.

  30. Ipsos Mori
    The last column should be headed Lab / Con swing

  31. @Alec

    My opinion was that once the election was won, the party would reassert itself and rein in Cameron, in other words a sizable propotion saw his reforms as an electibility strategy, a PR opp. if you like. Minority government would have impossible for him. A landslide might have been just as difficult: a new swathe of right wingers.
    With Osbourne at the window of the cabinet office looking into the garden of No 10, promising so much to Laws and Co lest the prize slip from their grasp, this looked for a while like the best of all possible worlds, a way of keeping the right in check.
    The move against 1922 Committee was a mark of overconfidence, and ill thought through, a big misjudgement – he didn’t understand the rules.
    Cameron is much more open and honest than many a politician, this morning on Today (R4) it was clear that the euphoria is over and the difficulty of his position has become evident to him.

  32. Alec has posted some really good analysis of Mr Redwood. But he left out a couple of pertinent bits.
    In July 2007, when the commission he chaired reported the deregulation suggestions Alec posted about they also proposed that (take a deep breath)
    THERE WAS NO NEED TO REGULATE THE MORTGAGE MARKET because all the risk was with the lender. Hmm, slight mistake methinks.

    Also, he came up with the totally fruitcake idea of solving congestion on the railways by putting rubber wheels on trains.

    That doesn’t mean I have no respect for him as a politician though. He is a reasonably diligent constituency MP. Quite bright – though coming from a completely different part of the political spectrum to me. And a fairly wily operator.

    I happen to know him personally, having stood against him twice in General Elections, and having been campaigning in his constituency for the past 15 years.

  33. Gosh, this is all non-partisan and about polls isn’t it???

    Comment is free (as long as…)

  34. @John TT
    we need more polls.
    But in the meantime, there is some room for a little conversation.

  35. @ MRSB & John TT

    I think we are all learning things from one another. It’s lovely. 8-)

  36. I’m still studying the Ipsos Mori data – I imagine everyone else is.

  37. Eoin,
    While many people find their work so fullfilling that they wish it to go on forever, some do not. Many privileged occupations offer the opportunity to retire at 60, so people can go on to ‘find their dream’. In the harshest occupations people are literally broken down physically by that age (if they have survived so far) and for them 70 is a no no.
    Although it was a different era, my grandad worked at H&W six days a week (for hols read Bank Holidays) and retirement meant the opportunity to avail himself of the City’s AE facilities and thus find a fullfillment that had not been open to him before. In fact I can think of many people for whom retirement has been a liberation.

  38. @Billy Bob,

    I understand were you are coming from…. Perhaps it could be phased in so that primary industries are exempt…

    I certainly did not have East Belfast shipworkers such as your family member in mind.

    People now do live longer. Jobs are more office based or customer service based. For those ‘compulsory retirement’ is a deathknell…

    Sorry if it was at all offensive :)

  39. Eoin – no offence taken whatsoever :-)

  40. @Sue,

    “The question for Cameron is can he hold them this time? After Maggie they deserted quite drastically.”

    Yes, that is the 64,000 dollar question. I think it depends on whether the Tories are able to rescue the economy and allay the current working class frustrations Eoin rightly referred to in an earlier post.

  41. Well if the Wokingham Vulcan does launch an attack on Cameron, Marx will yet again be proved right. The first time (against Major) as tragedy; the second time as farce.

    Or possibly the other way round.

    Actually I’ve been quite impressed by Cameron and Osborne over the past few weeks; but then they, more by accident than design, ended up in just the right situation.

    Had they had fewer seats, with Labour comfortably in majority,(on the own or with the Lib Dems), then they would have been torn limb from limb by blue-rinsed maeneads. A comfortable but not enormous Tory majority and the right wing fundamentalists would start making threats. This way they can continue the de-nastying of the Party, while claiming they have no alternative.

    Whether the Fundis will go for ideological purity over power remains to be seen. They may make an early strike before the coalition beds in and before the five year lock comes down. They may try to force another election with the hopeful backing of their friends in the Press while Labour is leaderless; but with a failure to get over 40% in the last campaign, it’s a real gamble.

    Interesting times.

  42. @Roger Mexico
    ‘Interesting times.’

    Groan – off to bed

  43. @Roger Mexico,

    A nice summary of the current situation IMO. Couldn’t have put it better myself. :)

  44. Is everyone that backed John McDonnell a PIRA sympathiser?

  45. Roger Mexico

    Found this quote in the D Telegraph: “The Hilton approach was always rooted in earning the opportunity, by recasting perceptions, for the Tories and properly conservative ideas to be heard afresh”
    D Telegraph has started a petition for CGT rethink.

  46. David Laws pulled out of Question Time tonight. The reason given was Alistair Campbell being invited, by QT, to represent the opposition.

    This will be unpopular with Labour supporters who were prepared to give the coalition a chance, IMO.

  47. Of course QT is not a represenative sample, but the way the audiance applauses or not is rather indicative. Tonight it was highly uncertain. It was quite strange, even the good old things that were certain to trigger applause seem to have gone. Very strange.

    If this is the mood in the public and it is enduring, we will see interesting turns and twists.

  48. @ Amber Star

    Good that we got to the same subject at the same time :-).

    It was certainly a PR negative to the coalition. It would have a temporary effect though, if at all. But it’s indicative. They could not put Laws up… The Cambell excuse is not very convincing to put it mildly.

  49. But of course it’s not easy for the coalition. A man, recently the second man in the LibDem Party arrives to an organisation that helps businesses. Informs them that he was not there to close them down, but that they could not make a contract until the Emergency Budget. The organisation informs him that they already froze the wages and they started lay offs because they got a letter from another part of the government, but they are helpful that they could survive in a repackaged form. The man nods and leaves.

  50. helful = hopeful

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