We have the first few polls about the coalition coming in. YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this week found 56% approval, 38% disapproval on Wednesday, growing to 60% approval, 33% disapproval on Thursday. There was scepticism about how long it would last though – 28% think it will be less than a year, with only 10% thinking it will last the intended 5 years.

ComRes also produced a poll for the Daily Politics today, asking about hopes for the coalition. There was broad optimism about the its ability to reduce the deficit (60% thought it would be effective, 29% ineffective), 54% thought it would clean up politics, 36% disagreed. People were less optimistic how the coalition would deal with the NHS (43% thought it would be effective, 45% that it wouldn’t) and crime (45% effective, 45% ineffective).


204 Responses to “Polls on the coalition”

1 2 3 5
  1. Too early to say much, evidently people are ready to give it a chance

  2. Glad to see the increase in favour towards the coalition.

    It did seem to shock quite a few people at first, however the concept of the Tories and Lib Dems being in coalition isn’t all that unlikely.

    Some good numbers, will be good to see how things progress.

  3. These will be interesting numbers to keep track of, I hope they become regular questions in the polling.

    [This specific question won’t be because it has that intro text at the top which will sound really silly 6 months down the line, I’m sure trackers along the same line will emerge though – AW]

  4. Sounds like any raise in CGT could be problematic

  5. Pleasantly surprised by these results. On the basis of recent news reports and last nights QT I was forming the opinion that the majority of people were against the coalition.

    As a left of centre LD the coalition was not my preferred outcome but I am of the opinion that based on the maths, the reluctance of some senior Labs and their inability to offer any incentive to LDs there was no option to provide a stable Con/LD government.

  6. Surely it is too early to tell if the coalition will be any good. They haven’t had time to do anything yet. Still 60% is a majority, which is more than any of the parties can claim. It will be interesting to see if the coalitions approval ratings follow the traditional path of a single party in government.

  7. These polls are encouraging signs that people are at least willing to given the coalition a chance…

    I would be most interested to see a poll broken down by party affiliation.

    What do UKIPers think, for example?

    Given that LD/Con got 59% – they would be reasonably confident on these stats that they at least have their parties behind it from the beginning.

  8. Eoin
    individual party figures are on AW’s link.

  9. Just maybe the great British public have got a result of the type they wanted – one in which politicians have to grow up and work together.
    Not my first choice, as an active Lib Dem, but prepared to give it a go.

  10. @Howard,

    Thanks for that. Given that this is supposed ot be the honeymoon or the ‘first 100 days’ as it has been coined since the 1930s, this is most alarming for yellows. It is clear the blues think DC has done well to contrive this agreement but a thirdof LDs disagreeing is most worrying for them. That would equate to a 8% drop int heir share of the vote to 16.5%.

    Of course, it quite likely wont be as bad as that but still, those that strongly dissaprove are relatively high. It is interesting that some Labour supporters are willing to give it a chance…. it is those figures, which are probably keeping the overall figure up around 60%.

    Looking ahead, one can see ‘slack’in the 60% figure, or room for decrease….. In my humble opinion the 60% figure is only going to go one direction.

  11. What struck me was the approval of young voters. Not what we sages were expecting, I assume?
    @Eoin
    The tables do not give minor parties if that was your interest, sorry

  12. Read my post as an analysis of Wednesday’s folks.

    It has been a long day…….

  13. Interesting to see it so widely supported by LD voters – I’m a Lib Dem and support it (cautiously, as by far the best of a bad set of choices), but had got the impression in the media that there was much more opposition from LDs.

  14. One should also observe that a north south divide appears to have been accentuated.

    Scotland and North disapprove

    London and south approve

    It will be interesting to see if this divide grows….

  15. @ Eoin
    “It is clear the blues think DC has done well to contrive this agreement but a thirdof LDs disagreeing is most worrying for them. That would equate to a 8% drop int heir share of the vote to 16.5%.”

    True, though only 5% of LDs ‘strongly disapprove’ of the coalition.
    It appears to me that while some may think it will hurt the party in the long term they’re largely accepting of it; perhaps they realise the tough situation their party leadership were in.

  16. @Owain,

    i read Wednesday’s straight up… the picutre improves by Thursdays I can see that…. although the flux over a 24 hour period would worry me…

    The Welsh seem squarely behind, i take it you noticed?

  17. Eoin
    It is unlike you to wishfully think.
    ‘Disapproval’ of LD had drpopped to 24% by Thursday and 19 of that was in ‘tendency’ category. I suspect the 5% are really hard Labour who joined us to fight the Tories and their initial reaction is understandable. It has been forcefully expressed on here.

    It will be performance (or rather what they are told is performance by opinion formers) plus Feel Good factor, as always. Neither you nor I know where those are going.

  18. Indeed Eoin, though I wonder how much that may be down to their acceptance of Con and Lib generally and experience with coalitions in their assembly. While the Scots aren’t too scared of coalition they’re still largely anti-Tory. The disapproves in the North and Scotland are surely partly informed by party allegiance.

  19. Howard,

    i posted a link to real clear politics earlier on the previous thread did you get a look at Obama’s ratings since he took office?

    I also checked 1997s ratings
    2001 ratings
    2005 ratings

    I am afraid they only go one way…

    I’ll go find the link again for you….

  20. Oh and as for the 24h flux Eoin I’m not too surprised, after the initial shock wears off and people have time to reflect I’d have expected a degree more acceptance.

  21. @howard,

    see the link

    h ttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    @Owain,

    yes party allegiances explain a lot of it….

  22. Heh and one other small point, it always tickles me how there are consistently a few % more of women who will answer “Don’t know” to questions than men. More willing to acknowledge their own ignorance methinks!

  23. Results from 12th and 13th are quite dissimilar. For example in Scotland, the coalition gets 34% approval on the 12th, but 58% approval on the 13th.

    Not unsurprising. though, that greatest support for the coalition comes from the south of England.

  24. @Eoin
    Yes I see what happened with Obama, thanks, but we have to realise that his presidency resulted from a plebiscite, essentially, and his subsequent attempts to attain some consensus on health care were rewarded with disgraceful behaviour by his own side.

    If that starts to happen here, then I daresay we shall see the same effect, but so far, the only loonies are on the blue side and their activities will only produce sympathy for Cameron and even support against them from Labour ranks (think of Hain and others).

    The LD fellow from Southport does not impress me. I don’t know of any more LDs who could be described as mavericks (remind me someone!).

  25. @Howard,

    Evan Davis or Steve Webb. the latter is firmly on board.

    The guardian carried a very interesting article yesterday.

    Charlie Kenendy
    David Steel
    Menzies Campbell
    Paddy Ashdown

    have all gone into hiding.

    a total of 7 MPs either abstained or voted against the coalition

  26. Question for blueys.

    Did David Davis refuse a cabinet position?

  27. Early days still. Nice to see the PM up in Scotland. The UK has been drifting appart for the past 30 to 40 years.

    I quite like the fixed term parliament idea. It prevents the PM from cutting and running and stops the Government from falling.
    Maybe they can convice me to drop my support for FPTP, but I am non convinced yet.
    Good luck to them though. :)

  28. Eoin

    I have had nearly a year and half on pollster.com watching Obams’s ratings being goaded bt my friends on the right.

    I’ll be going back as we have the mid terms in November.

    Obama lost all his traction over Healthcare. Introducuing successfully wouldn’t have any more support as he had it any way. But Congress took the whole of last year with the economy tanking and with that a steady waning of Obama’s support.

    The US has a eight centre majority rather like our left/centre inbuild.

    What is interesting over there is that the ethnic populations Black and Hispanic will overtake the White majority. The Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to vote Demcrat.

    Any way Obams leak is down to Healthcare and the perception he has neglected the economy.

  29. @Jack JAckson,

    To what extent are the phenomenons

    1. “wallpaper effect”
    2. “buyers remorse”

    also in part to blame?

    Look at Reds in 1997
    or Sarkzozy post 2007

  30. Eoin

    Very few increase support after the honeymoon. It takes an event. Wars always good for incumbents. George W was leaking then 9/11 happened and his support went up all the way through past the Iraq war.

    The Falklands saved Thatcher.

    So of course there is an element of both 1 and 2 with every newly elected official. Events either act as a game changer mid term one way or the other and then normally the polls tighten for the following election.

  31. @Eoin,

    You are right about the ratings only going one way. This government will be incredibly unpopular once the massive cuts are announced. As a blue, I don’t really care too much about polls in early or mid-government as they nearly always go against the incumbent anyway. The polls in late 2014/early 2015, if the coalition lasts that long, will be the more revealing ones. :)

  32. Unfortunately for the haters, Obama’s approval is going up again – take a look at Gallup for confirmation!
    :)

  33. There’s a growing understanding that we won’t have another GE for 5 years.

    Of course the game of spotting which lib Dems breaks rank will continue.

    The Lib Dem policy is 2 fold get their liberal agenda through, save us from The Tories excesses, Clause 28 revisted etc.

    Cameron needs Clegg to help enact his patrician reformist policies which he would find more difficult against his own right wing.

    If you saw Mel Philips on QT last night these guys are seething with rage but are helpless, I thought Simon Hughes summed it up very well – in the end.

    Also note its Cameron who coined ” Liberal Conservative Coalition.”

  34. It will be interesting to see how the planned boundary changes will affect the seat calculator and swingometer. It seems like this will still go ahead. AV would only complicate it further, if it passes a referendum. :)

  35. I think the key will be how the economy is performing in 2015 (if the coalition lasts that long, which I personally think it will). If we are back to experiencing pre-2008 levels of economic growth, I think the electorate will be forgiving and more understanding of the cuts, and relieved that the economic crisis is over. If, on the other hand, the economic outlook hasn’t improved much/at all, then the Tories would be in trouble.

  36. Very few people know the real state of the economy, the current melt down in Europe endangers us with their hubris.

    Really there has been a shift eastwards of the world’s wealth. It may well be the case, that our children mine are 23 and 24 will not enjoy the comfortable life styles that the 2 post war generations have generally ever enjoyed.

    My guess is that we will inflate our way out of the debt mountain in the end.

  37. @ Matt

    Agreed, it’s all to play for – the Tories and LDs just better hope Boy George comes through for them with the economy.

  38. Matt
    yes the BC could decide the next election!

    Eoin Charlie Kenendy,David Steel,Menzies Campbell,
    Paddy Ashdown
    Only two are MP’s and in no position to make a fuss or plot. .

  39. Well hopefully the Liberals now understand that Labour is an illiberal party.

  40. What is clear is that if we had an election between the Yellow/Blues and Labour and the Others on Aa national poll tomorrow. The Liberal Conservative coalition would win with sound majority support.

  41. “What is clear is that if we had an election between the Yellow/Blues and Labour and the Others on Aa national poll tomorrow. The Liberal Conservative coalition would win with sound majority support.”

    For the moment. :)

  42. Owain
    Laws will do all the work -I expect Bryne has done it all anyway

  43. I think “for the moment” was implicit when he said “tomorrow” :P

  44. @Owain,

    “I think “for the moment” was implicit when he said “tomorrow” :P”

    True. I was just being flippant about the coalition’s inevitable decline in popularity in the coming months. :)

  45. I do not think for one second that the next election will be fought as a coalition Matt, I don’t think you do either, See my exchange with Pam. It’s not what happens in PR systems but of course we won’t have PR. About half way through, I suspect someone is going to have to think very deeply about putting up candidates and where. If no AV, it will be situation normal for the parties but what will the voters think?

    I think there will be a lot of nose-holding in polling stations. Anyone got a handle on how 500 seats pan out?

  46. @Eoin
    You are absolutely right about Sarkozy, as a Segolene Royal voter I was totally horrified to see his approval rates after his victory in 2007 (he was a master of political marketing, I concede this), and look where his is now. As for the findings of the polls now, I am not at all surprised, in fact I thought that approval would be higher, usually the winners of an election have substantially higher rates than the percentage they have just received (for instance Papandreou, after his victory in October 2009 with 44%, had an approval rate of 72%, and even now, after all these austerity measures, he is well above 50%)

  47. @Eoin
    I would be most interested to see a poll broken down by party affiliation.

    _________________________________________

    I got this from the political betting site

    ALL CON LAB LD
    Approve 60% 87% 25% 69%
    Disapprove 33% 13% 68% 24%

    No UKIP I’m afraid

  48. @ JACK JACKSON

    What is clear is that if we had an election between the Yellow/Blues and Labour and the Others on Aa national poll tomorrow. The Liberal Conservative coalition would win with sound majority support.
    ———————————————————-
    Completely wrong inference to draw from this poll – because this in no way reflects how people would vote in an election.

    For that, we need a VI poll.

  49. Virgilio
    Your data on the Greek situation is very interesting. The images we get over here are of chaos and dissent.

    However i have spent some time in Athens and every time I was there , a Friday night demo was held in Syntagma Square, whereby I began to think it was an entertainment laid on for tourists staying at the Hotel Grand Bretagne.

    I suppose the fact that half the population live in and around Athens does concentrate this sort of activity and your data indicates a conservative majority out in the provinces if not in Athens itself.

    Beware the news media, especially when reporting foreign affairs. When the BBC’s Mark Mardell was in Brussels the EU and Benelux reportage was the worst I have ever seen.

  50. Amber Starr

    There is nothing surprising about this poll.

    First day some uncertanty next day less uncertainty so more approval.

    of course their will always be those in denial.

    Virtually all my friends in the Labour Party are in denial.

    labour will lose a lot more seats in Scotland next time out.

    Indeed but for Scotland and London we would have had a Conservative majority.

    Since the Blair modernisation in the mid 90’s the Labour Party has gone backwards. There were 400,000 members when I lefy, are there 200,000 now? I don’t even think that many.

    The next Leader has to be great at opposition but even better in organising a campaigning party

1 2 3 5