We have the first few polls about the coalition coming in. YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this week found 56% approval, 38% disapproval on Wednesday, growing to 60% approval, 33% disapproval on Thursday. There was scepticism about how long it would last though – 28% think it will be less than a year, with only 10% thinking it will last the intended 5 years.

ComRes also produced a poll for the Daily Politics today, asking about hopes for the coalition. There was broad optimism about the its ability to reduce the deficit (60% thought it would be effective, 29% ineffective), 54% thought it would clean up politics, 36% disagreed. People were less optimistic how the coalition would deal with the NHS (43% thought it would be effective, 45% that it wouldn’t) and crime (45% effective, 45% ineffective).

204 Responses to “Polls on the coalition”

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  1. labour and tories will vote NO to AV won’t they?
    10% chance of success..at best?

  2. AV: Which of the major 2 parties will be least compromised?
    Even distantly 2nd place L.D. candidates will have a shot at winning seats as the beaten 3rd place party AV votes are transfered to- typically -Lib Dems.
    ?? Will Labour or Tories be most disadvantaged by this?
    IE: Who do Lib Dems most commonly run second to?
    Also, Are Lab OR Con voters most likely to back L.D.s as Alternate vote?
    HELP ! How do I get this established as new thread.?

  3. @ Janet

    “Labour and tories will vote NO to AV won’t they?
    10% chance of success..at best?”

    It is the public who votes. And AV is empowering to the voter. And fairer. People want fairer politics. Current opinion polls are in favour.

    It will be quite difficult for Labour, as a party, to say No to AV. After all, it was in their election manifesto.

  4. Way back when Brown first trailed AV as an option I commented that AV might not work as many, especially Lab, assume.

    In seats where the result was say: C37; Lab 32; LD 21; others 10; then there is an assumption by many that AV would transfer the seat to Lab on reallocation of LD votes. There is even the valiant hope that this might happen in seats where the first round votes are C 47; Lab 25; LD 20; Others 8. Conversely, it is optimistically thought that a Lab 41; Con 39; LD 11; Others 9; would stay Lab.

    However, changing the system to AV creates a new paradigm and there can be no certainty that the first choice votes in any seat would remain the same under AV as they would for a FPTP election in the same seat on the same day.

    In the two examples above we could well find that the first round votes turn out as:

    A – Con 30; LD 23; Lab 21; others 25
    B – Con 40; Lab 22; LD 19; others 19
    C – Con 37; Lab 35; LD 15; others 13

    Seat A would most likely end up as LD. Seat B would stay Con. Seat C might well remain Lab, but could conceivably fall to Con.

    The point is, nobody really knows how the electorate would react to a system where they can vote for their first choice regardless of how “weak” their chances may be in a given seat. It is also quite possible (nay, even probable) that AV would deliver significant increase in votes for lesser parties. In time it could eventually deliver setas to the smaller parties which could in turn force splits in the major parties.

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