Updated swingometers

I have now updated the swingometers on the site with 2010 election data.

Dull old text version here – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Lovely graphical version (but needs a plug-in for Internet Explorer) – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swingometer-map
Enhanced graphical version with seperate swings for Scotland and Wales – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/advanced-swingometer-map

Of course, these may turn out to be of purely academic interest, since the government still seem to be intending to reduce the number of seats by 10% in time for the next election, and that’s leaving aside the possiblity that the voting system itself is changed. We shall cross those bridges when we reach them though!


105 Responses to “Updated swingometers”

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  1. Edward & Roger: Thanks (not sure what’s happened to Great Yarmouth. That was a mistake in the original swingometer that I corrected, some how it has reasserted itself!)

  2. No idea why i’m still being moderated but I think I’m wasting my time now –
    Wonderful site Anthony and great fun over the past 6 months!

    There are people far more partisan that me – so I will leave you all to it!

  3. Paul H-J – Thanks, is that based on polling or your opinion?

    I found the nominal results:

    From the BBC website the nominal pecentage of votes from 2005 for what is the new constituency of Thirsk & Malton are:
    Conservatives 51.9%
    Labour 23.4%
    Lib Dem 18.8 %
    Others 5.9%

    Your suggestion would need at least a 2.3% swing away from Lab to the Libs.

  4. Also, I’m not sure I’d expect there to be low turnout. I’d have thought either way, whoever benefits, people will be pretty keen to give their opinion about the coalition???

  5. I think a plausible case can be made for Thirsk & Malton as the most boring constituency in the country -this delayed election is just about the only time anything unusual has ever happened there!

    Always Conservative they were unopposed in 1922,1931 and 1935 (in similar Richmond of William Hague fame there was only one contest between 1918 and 1935 – needless to say the Tories won that too).

    I like the story that when E R Turton, the Conservative MP from 1915 – 1929 died, just before the election they adopted a relative,as they’d already printed ‘Vote For Turton’ posters.Confrms what I was always told about Yorkshire folk .(I had a good Lancashire upbringing.)

    Robin Turton naturally went on to become the Father Of The House -his biggest achievement – until his retirement in 1974.

    One good thing is that it will return another woman to the House.I note that Anne Mcintosh speaks 6 European languages, one of which is German. Quick! Somebody warn the Daily Mail!

    Since boredom is its essence there will be a low turnout,a sizeable swing to the Tories and the candidates will finish in the same order they notionally started.

  6. Sue,

    IMHO – as is anything posted on this site unless independantly verifiable.

    Turnout – just look at what happened in South Staffordshire in 2005. Turnout was only 37.5% – low even by normal by-election standards

    Result – again see South Staffordshire in 2005. The Con vote rose fractionally in percentage terms, but other parties vote fell. I would expect something similar here.

    Lab or LD in second place ?

    If you look at the Thirsk & Malton thread on the constituiency section you will see that in the Ryedale parts of the seat, Labour were historically a poor third to LDs in 1997 & 2001, but for some reason managed to reduce the gap to 4% in 2005. The notional results for the revised seat put Lab in second ahead of LDs. That assumes that the parts imported from Vale of York were more Lab / less LD than the parts removed from Ryedale. As with any notional results for “new” seats (and this one has significnat changes from 2005 boundaries) there is scope for error in the estimated shares which could easily be c2% in terms of Lab-LD gap.

    Now, let us look at what happened in the surrounding seats last week.

    York Outer:
    2005 notional Con 34; Lab 24; LD 39
    2010 actual Con 43; Lab 17; LD 36

    York Central
    2005 notional Con 24; Lab 49; LD 20
    2010 actual Con 26; Lab 40; LD 25

    East Yorkshire:
    2005 notional Con 45; Lab 32; LD 19
    2010 actual Con 47; Lab 20; LD 21

    Selby & Ainsty;
    2005 notional Con 46; Lab 43; LD 11
    2010 actual Con 49; Lab 26; LD 18

    Aggregated:
    2005 notional Con 149; Lab 148; LD 89
    2010 actual Con 165; Lab 103; LD 100

    With notional 2005 figures for Thirsk & Malton at Con 53; Lab 25; LD 18 it is quite likely that had this been held on 6th May the result would have been about C 57; LD 20; Lab 18.

  7. @ Anthony

    I am expecting some polling to be done on the Labour Leadership contest once it gets underway.

    Will you be covering these polls on your site?

  8. “With notional 2005 figures for Thirsk & Malton at Con 53; Lab 25; LD 18 it is quite likely that had this been held on 6th May the result would have been about C 57; LD 20; Lab 18.”

    My constituency had very similar figures to Thirsk & Malton in 2005. In 2010, there was only a slight increase in Tory vote of around 2.5%, much to my surprise, and the Libs overtook Labour into second place.

    Not saying this will happen for Thirsk & Malton – it’s unlikely IMO. Just thought I’d share this, as my constituency was pretty comparable to Thirsk & Malton in 2005.

  9. How long do political honeymoons last?

    It is an interesting question, one which is just as interesting even if we leave aside our recent wedding of blue and green.

    When Obama took office he had approval ratings of 68% versus 12%.

    Within six months one poll had his approval at 49% versus his disapproval at 49%.

    Thus, for a monumnetally popular president such as the one currently occupying the white house- it did not last very long.

    We may see an initial jump in approval ratings for this marriage of convenience but I expect the honeymoon to dissipate very quickly indeed.

    If blues and yellows start at the c.54% that both leaders were enjoying prior to assuming office they we could be into the thirties sooner than you think.

    This honeymoon owes as much to Wayne Rooney’s right foot as it does to messrs Cameron and Clegg.

  10. h ttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    above is a site detailing Obama’s job approval rating…

  11. THought you might be interested Worcester Lib Dem chairman has resigned and joined the Greens, feels cheated over coalition. on BBC

  12. @Eoin,

    True, but approval and acceptance are two different things. You don’t have to be liked as a government (or leader) to be re-elected. Many people vote for the incumbents because they are wary of change.

    You’re quite right that this is merely the honeymoon period though. I expect this government to become very unpopular within a year or 2. However, from 2014, I predict that they will secure the economic recovery and be re-elected. Of course, I could be totally wrong though. Predictions have never been my forte.

  13. There seems to be something strange about Hastings & Rye on the interactive map. If I set the percentages at 38/35/16/12 it shows as a gain for Others!

  14. @Matt,

    Bush was not particulalry liked but re-elected so you are very right to say it is not the be all and endall….

    but if a honeymoon ends- expect a hostile press… that might make life uncomfortable for this coalition….

    We are in for the funnest set of ‘rags’ for a generation (they were ever so predictable when reds were in power)

  15. @Amber Star

    Yes I reckon they’ll appear. Although with only one confirmed contender so far a poll is a bit pointless right now.

    Looking forward to the first opinion polls, is the new Government doing a good job so far?

  16. ANTHONY W

    I assume you have been told dozens pf times already that the lists of candidates for every constituency’s thread is incorrectly showing 2005 not 2010?

    Also Richmond (Yorks) doesn’t have the 2010 result shown – just an oversight?

  17. @Eoin,

    “but if a honeymoon ends- expect a hostile press… that might make life uncomfortable for this coalition….”

    You are quite right, Eoin. I do expect a hostile press within a few, short months.

  18. Despite being disappointed by the outcome, I must say that I have enjoyed having such an exciting election, and I think it’s been a good thing for politics.
    It looks like, whenever it will be, the next one is almost certain to be exciting too!
    If the coalition is successful and popular (which will be no mean feat), how will people vote? You can’t vote for a coalition, just like how you can’t vote for a hung parliament (depsite the media often billing it as a conscious, collective decision taken by the public…very odd!).
    The “New Politics” concept seems strange to me. Once the hung parliament is gone, so will it be.
    It all hinges, methinks, on how the Lib Dem’s perform. If they were to start polling at 30% then hung parliaments would indeed be the future. But as it stands, considering their election result, I see no reasoning to think they will achieve as such.

  19. @AW
    The Buckingham result is missing from the swingometer map, I think?

  20. John Fletcher

    “I get the impression that Salmond , though he may not agee with conservative policies, does not have a rabid hatered of the tories that some of his countrymen do.

    After all work together in the Scottish Parliament.

    How will they get on?

    There are Tories and Tories. Scotland used to vote solidly for one-nation Tories in all the constituencies now securely held by LibDems and SNP and more.

    Old right wing Thatcherite Tories are anathema in Scotland. DC (moderated by LibDems) and informed by the SP Cons (if he UK party will listen to them) are a posiitive sign for go working relationships.

    The SP Cons, led by the most widely respected leader outwith her own party since Donald Dewar must be relieved (as will DC himself) that the need for a coalition with the LibDems provides a convenient justification for centre-right rather than looney right policies

  21. Thirsk and Malton was, historically, a constituency with a rock solid Con majority until the 70s, when the vast majority of it was incorporated into the Ryedale constituency. My elder son lives in Norton (Malton’s twin town) and my nephew lives in a village north of York; both remember well the by-election in 1986 when the Liberals took the seat. My nephew was a councillor on the local District Council, and the Lib Dems ran that council with a majority until 1996, when half the district went into York and removed him and many other Lib Dems from Ryedale. Thirsk has always been a bit of a Labour area amongst a sea of Conservatives, but a dead loss for the Lib Dems. There is a small amount of Labour support in the market towns, but little elsewhere.

  22. @Tony F,

    I must admit, the only thing I know about Thirsk is that it has a decent race course. Other than that it could be outer Mongolia. :(

  23. Paul H-J

    “The May 6th reult would have been about Con 57 Lab 20 Lib 18”

    Brilliant!

  24. I’m just about to take a trip to NL for a week where GE campaigning was suspended as respect for plane crash victims.
    I’ll try and look in from there but I wish to say now that the last week felt as though I was back there again. Civilised negotiations with everyone acting with decorum, not least GB.
    Perhaps this then *would have been* a good moment to introduce proper PR. I suppose DC would get the wrath of his backbenchers; he has it anyway over AV; so perhaps it is too soon. I would love to see polling, not on ‘how well the Government is doing’, but on what people thought of the formation and to see whether they agree with me.
    My feeling is that we will never go back now, call it euphoria but that’s not how I feel, more business- like attitude really.

  25. Reference honeymoons and just to trivialize things (or am I too late!).
    Nick Clegg should expect a short honeymoon period since David Cameron is an anagram of ‘a damn divorce’.

  26. @ Eoin – “but if a honeymoon ends- expect a hostile press… that might make life uncomfortable for this coalition….”

    With all due respect, Eoin, do you really think anyone would expect any different? In the last 40 years or so, has the press ever stayed upbeat about any government after a honeymoon period?

  27. RCWhiting,

    that is pretty cool if I may say so myself :)

  28. btw are there any polls due on the forthcoming Labour leadership contest?

    So far the only contenders seem to be the Jedward boys.

  29. @james,

    “the press” is not one homogenous entity so first of I apolgise for using it as such.

    Secondly, don’t you remember cool britania” etc… Oasis in an out of Downing Street like they were Tony’s pal.

    Then we had Bernie Ecc and the Dodgy Dome.

    When the press does turn it is a moment worth analysing.

    Now with particular reference to the deadly duo at the moment. On the one hand what are the Guardian/Indep. and Observer supposed to do? They backed yellow but I am not sure their plan was for Clegg to start chanting ala le bleu…. conversely, the Daily Mail did not exactly sign up for an entente cordiale with 57 Europhiles…

    so you see it is a bit different this time round…. I expect a yo yo ing. One story championed by the Mail will be torn to shreds by the Guardian and so on- but essentially for the time since the repeal of the stamp duty on papers by the Honourable Huskisson in 1824-5 we now have the press all on the one side (sorry Kevin Maguire)

    All in all, I am afraid I disagree, I think we have a unique set of conditions for our press to operate in in the forthcoming years….

    I for one am looking forward to it :) :)

  30. RC Whiting LOL…

  31. Eoin,

    Let us hope that the press barons don’t suffer the same fate as Huskisson – or is that your secret desire ?

    Paul

  32. Billy Bob,

    Actually, I inferred a result of Con 57, LD 20, Lab 18.

    Not sure what you find “brilliant” about that
    – the imputed result; or
    – my extrapolated calculations ; or
    – my reasoning.

    If the latter, sorry to disappoint, but I am immune to flattery.

  33. @Paul H J,

    If Lord Adonis’ plans for light rail expansion are not scuppered i fully expect to see a few of them on the manchester to Liverpool line very soon indeed :)

  34. @ Eoin – “so you see it is a bit different this time round…”

    I don’t think it is. The Guardian published plenty of negative stories on New Labour throughout its tenure. The Telegraph has never been keen on Cameron. Etc. Journalists and newspaper editors always think they can do a better job of running the country than politicians and they report accordingly.

    Politicians, for their part, are used to it. Rightly or wrongly, it comes with the territory. The idea that Cameron and Clegg naively expect anything different is a bit … well, bonkers :)

  35. I would too have thought EU the best way to drive forward splits by the press. Always safe to choose something that matters little to the man in the street but everything to the loonies.

    Another one could be Ian DS cracking down on benefit ‘cheats’ in an attempt to destroy ‘broken Britain’ (as opposed to mending it)..

    The mischief makers will always stoke up the extremists because the moderates are too busy being moderate.

  36. Eoin,

    Never mind light rail. High Speed rail would do the job far more efficiently !

    Of course, given how blinkered some of our press seem to be, this is a most apposite way to despatch them.

    Paul

  37. @Paul H J,

    Yes I am no Brunel as you can see. I had Midland railway services for two years and at times I wished i was Huskisson.

    But yes, jan moir is in my prayers….

  38. @James Ludlow,

    Did you know that the Guardian backed the Lib Dems?

  39. Since this is a polling site, does anyone know if there are going to be any post coalition opinion polls publish in this week’s Sunday papers? Or will it still be the honeymoon?

  40. @ Eoin – as I recall, The Guardian exhorted its readers to vote Lib Dem where the Lib Dems stood the best chance of beating the Tories, and Labour where Labour stood the best chance.

    Moreover, as I also recall, it adopted that tactical position around one week before the election.

  41. @Eoin

    “How long do political honeymoons last?”

    The honeymoon with the financial markets is already OVER:

    FTSE continuing to trade down and over 3% just today; Pound continuing to sink against the dollar and up on Euro (a tad): but only due to rumours of the return of the DM and further weakening in genral of the Euro against all currencies.

    Politically I would expect it to continue into the late Autumn and the dark weather and then to finally come to a end with a crash when all those CONDEM activists and candidates have to slag each other off in the 2011 elections of various types that will be taking place.

    My friends in the think tanks say that backbench Tory antagonism to the 55% gerrymandering is hardening despite Cameron’s attempt to clarity and explain.

    @Paul HJ

    ANY attempt to predict the Thirsk election is utter nonsense (other than that Tories will win) !

    The key thing will be the various swings between the parties contained in the result.

    Look for swings that are similar to the GE for the status quo: any greater for CONDEM vis Labour then a positive reception to the marriage. Anything better in terms of Labours performance at the GE than a little bit of a cool reception to the marriage.

    The CON and DEM candidates were on snoozenight yesterday: they do not like each other one little bit ;-)

  42. Whatever you think of politicians, having watched Melanie Philips & the New Statesman guy last night on QT, I’m pleased journalists and editors are not running the country.

  43. Surely the most significant figure at Thirsk will be turnout?

  44. @Peterbell

    yes I thought- by and large- taht CONDEM got a pasting (panel and audience) on QT yesterday.

    Though I liked it that Hesletine stayed silent when Simon Hughes said the LD’s were there to keep the ‘spending cuts fair’ :-)

  45. Peterbell
    That’s what I meant by loonies. Ther are also some who are MP’s and who will be stoked up (if they need stoking up).

  46. @Howard

    “Surely the most significant figure at Thirsk will be turnout?”

    I think if there is a massive swing from Labour to Lib Dems that would be more significant; ditto a positive swing (but not necessarily massive) from Con to Lab would be significant given the terrain of the constituency.

    But is it going to be another Blue MP: though given her attitude to her DEM opponent and nuanced opinion on the coaliton probably a back bencher…. ;-)

  47. I would think that Thirsk & Malton is too safe and we are far too early for anyone to start making judgements about the new government. Well, that’s the theory anyway.

  48. The first ‘event’ is the Budget is it not (Queens speech a formality?).

  49. Just thinking, it is going to be interesting to hear the electioneering in the by election if the Blues and the Oranges are both standing… as they are now on the same side.

  50. PamF
    I know I am not going to be appreciated Pam but you simply have not understood how it works, it seems. They will not oppose each other but merely stand up for their achievments in time-honoured salesman style.
    The LD will say he has got extra for early learning, highering of tax threshold (well towards that) and parliament reforms. The Tory can say anything she likes, the phone book if preferred, she will still be elected. In fact if I were she, that’s what i would do.

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