Updated swingometers

I have now updated the swingometers on the site with 2010 election data.

Dull old text version here – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Lovely graphical version (but needs a plug-in for Internet Explorer) – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swingometer-map
Enhanced graphical version with seperate swings for Scotland and Wales – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/advanced-swingometer-map

Of course, these may turn out to be of purely academic interest, since the government still seem to be intending to reduce the number of seats by 10% in time for the next election, and that’s leaving aside the possiblity that the voting system itself is changed. We shall cross those bridges when we reach them though!


105 Responses to “Updated swingometers”

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  1. What sort of polls will we be seeing from now on?
    Will there still be voting intention polls? If so, how frequent will they be, and when will the first one be?

  2. I imagine we’ll go back to the usual 7-8 a month?

    Anthony, you’ll have to develop a new graph/spread sheet for this Parliament. :D

  3. Not all of us use Internet Explorer. But the new version seems to work OK in Chrome.

  4. I’m always interested in your graphical swing-o-meters always showing that if the Lib Dems go up or down, then it’s always the Conservative vote that is effected – never the Labor vote. Is there no provision for that?

  5. Thank you, Anthony it is a very interesting guide.

    I am still comming to terms accepting the fact that David Cameron is Prime Minister. A very weird feeling. :)
    It is nice to see Whigs in the Cabinet. I am a big fan of bipartisanship and I wish those guys luck. As for Ken Clarke? The Beast is back :)

  6. Scott – that’s not supposed to signify anything in particular. You need need to play about with all the arrows to get whatever figures you want to project.

  7. Bryn – it should work fine in *anything* that isn’t Internet Explorer. It’s just Microsoft who won’t implement SVG in their browser

  8. The graphical version still says “notional 2005 result”. I take it the numbers are from the 2010 election as it says “hung parliament”.

  9. Thank you Anthony
    The sheer horror of the LD performance is so vivid as I thumb through those Con / Lib Dem marginals.

  10. Where is the plug in? I must have had it before the election, but IE hangs up now when I click on the link.

  11. Colin – whoops! That goes on the things to correct list!

  12. Scott
    If it’s still working the same

    You start off with the Labour figure -always. having altered that you then look at the Con figure and juggle between that and LD. Sometimes, to reduce the Con figure to the correct one LD then ends up too high. Then you bump up the Others to bring LD down.

    All in that order. I learnt the hard way ;-)

  13. Anthony,

    On a previous post to Bob Worcester, against an article what seems many moons ago, you mentioned:

    “I’ve got the party shares as

    CON 36.88%
    LAB 29.7%
    LDEM 23.57%
    Others 9.89%

    Rounding to CON 37%, LAB 30%, LDEM 24%, Other 10%.”

    However, the BBC has been quoting since the day after the election, the following results, which I have seen many people quoting:

    CON 36.1%
    LAB 29.0%
    LDEM 23.0%
    Others 11.9%

    Rounded to 36, 29, 23 & 12.

    Is there an explanation for the difference (especially “Others” and “Labour”) and which are the correct results?

  14. I suppose you’re a very busy man, but I hope that the lists of target seats is near the top of your priority list for updating on this site.

  15. Ronnie – they are both correct. The figures on the BBC are the shares of the vote for the UK, my figures are the shares of the vote for Great Britain. Since all voting intention polls are Great Britain, not UK, it’s GB figures I use.

  16. Neil, it’s very close to top of the list!

  17. Thanks a lot Anthony. Crystal clear.

  18. @Ronnie

    I think the reason for the discrepancy is the 2nd set of figures include NI voters (~ 2%) whereas the 1st set is “normalized” to compare with standard opinion poll figures. For various quite good reasons NI figures aren’t normally included in normal polls. I’m sure Anthony will tell you more if you ask.

  19. Lord Falconer very reasonable and fairly humble on newsnight. Well done.
    Certainly more so than Adonis, Campbell etc with the moaning and blaming Cons!

  20. Nailing down the Libdem vote next time is going to be interesting.

  21. Seems like jumping the gun slightly as not quite all the results are in…Will the swingometer be updated when the Thirsk and Malton results come in?

  22. @ Anthony

    If your lovely swingometer is still relevant at the next election, I will be paticularly interested in the ConDem marginals.

    IMO, LibDems will be wiped out in those seats. They will turn solid blue. That’s a very early prediction, if the coalition actually lasts for 4 or 5 years ;-)

  23. @KEITHP
    Maybe it is premature to forecast the LD vote for the next GE, but let us see what happened to the junior partners of outgoing coalitions in the UE the last two years.
    ITALY 2008: Sinistra Arcobaleno 3,1 % (2006: 10,4)
    SLOVENIA 2008: SLS-SMS 5,2 (2004: 8,9) / NSI: 3,4 (9,1)
    LITHUANIA 2008: LICS 5,3 (2004: 9,2) / LVLS 3,7 (6,6)
    BULGARIA 2009: NDSV 3,0 (2005: 19,9) / DPS 14,5 (12,8)
    GERMANY 2009: SPD 23,0 (2005: 34,2)
    HUNGARY 2010: SZDZ-MDF: 2,7 (2006: 11,5)
    The numbers speak for themselves. Note that SA, NSI, NDSV and SZDZ-MDF lost all their MPs because they failed to pass the threshold for parliamentary representation in their respective countries. The only exception was DPS, because it represents the Turkish minority of Bulgaria and has a stable core of ethnic voters

  24. @VERGILIO
    To support your theory, in Poland at the last parliamentary election (2005) the 2 junior coalition partners (LPR & SAMOOBRONA) of the previous government (PiS) were totally wiped out.
    No MP’s at all.
    Today they still poll barely 1-2% each.
    Funnily enough, although the main partner (PiS) lost the election badly, they survived the coalition pretty well and are now polling around 25%.

  25. Sorry the election was in 2007

  26. @Virgillio,

    Very true, though it is worth noting that the figures were direct comparisons of results from pre-economic crisis (2004-2006) and post economic crisis (2008-2010). The (worldwide) economic recession has meant that any party in a coalition government has usually incurred the wrath of the electorate. Therefore, I would caution against drawing too many conclusions from this.

  27. @JULIAN GILBERT.
    Absolutely right., and thanks for your remark.
    Also in Slovenia and Lithuania, the ex main partners (SDS and Social Democrats respectively) are now polling very well and have jumped to 1st place, capturing the discontent from actual governments.
    Junior partners are also expected to go very badly in the forthcoming elections of Latvia, Sweden and the Czech Republic.

  28. @Matt
    Your remark is correct, all governments are unpopular in times of crisis, but the fact is that the senior partners in those coalitions did not lose so dramatically (with the exception of Hungarian socialists) – they even gained in percentage (Slovenia, Italy) or in number of seats (Lithuania). It was the junior partners that were squeezed between the rising opposition and the resisting senior partner.

  29. @Virgilio,

    “Your remark is correct, all governments are unpopular in times of crisis, but the fact is that the senior partners in those coalitions did not lose so dramatically (with the exception of Hungarian socialists) – they even gained in percentage (Slovenia, Italy) or in number of seats (Lithuania). It was the junior partners that were squeezed between the rising opposition and the resisting senior partner.”

    Ah, that’s an interesting point. Thanks.

  30. It can hardly be ruled out, at least at this early stage, that the Cameron-Clegg government will be successful by at least some measures, and that in 2015 the coalition partners will be returned with increased majorities; though, if the Tories achieve a majority at that election we can expect them to jettison the Liberal Democrats. If AV is adopted by referendum, however, predictions as to how the vote will emerge cannot be easily determined by reference to historical precedent: would Liberal Democrat voters put Labour or the Tories as their second choice? Would Tories really put Liberal Democrats in as #2? And given that Labour would have been in opposition to both parties for five years, would Labour voters put anything in second place at all?

    Insofar as history tells us anything, however, it’s that simply being part of a coalition government isn’t what kills you: it’s the electoral pacts that are often suggested as a follow-up, so that neither coalition partner threatens the other. This killed the Liberals at the “coupon election”, and killed the various National Government parties in the 1930s; but Attlee got out of the War Coalition quite well, by avoiding all electoral pacts, and campaigning straight against the Conservatives in 1945.

    In any case, if AV goes through, there’s much less incentive for one party to stand aside for the other.

  31. Based on my experience from Denmark, where I grew up and where coalition governments are the norm, I’d say the future electoral performance of the LibDems depends on several factors.
    For instance, how loyal will they be? In my experience, the junior partner has to be allowed some leeway to say they disagree with a decision but still vote in favour. In Denmark, all the parties have spokespeople, even the government parties, and I think that’s needed here, too. That is, in spite of there being a Lib-Con Home Secretary (well, Con in this case), I think there should also be a Conservative Home Affairs spokesman, and a LibDem one. In that way, there can be both a government line (the government ministers need to be loyal to each other!), a Tory line, a LibDem line, a Labour line, etc.
    Also, I predict that the LibDem membership and voters will shift significantly towards the right, losing a good part of their left wing, but gaining a lot of left-wing Conservatives. This means they’re likely to do badly in seats where most of their voters were left-wing, but on the other hand they’ll do very well in moderately conservative seats.

  32. I would recommend Google Chrome, it is far quicker than IE.

  33. Eoin :-(

  34. Can’t comment :-(
    Been too naughty, on the step.

  35. I see DC is on his way to visit Salmond in Scotland.

    I do not no much about Scottish Politics but I get the impression that Salmond , though he may not agee with conservative policies, does not have a rabid hatered of the tories that some of his countrymen do.

    After all work together in the Scottish Parliament.

    How will they get on?

  36. @ Cozmo – I saw Newsnight, what a hoot – very funny.

    IMO let them get on with it for now, it will either be a big success in which case we all benefit or a complete failure in which case it’ll be over soon enough.

    No middle ground for success of failure here.

    As for Murdoch media, I can only assume people would stop subscribing to or purchasing the media if they didn’t like it. IMO I cannot understand how ABoulton can remain as a credible front man. His diatribe with Campbell was disgraceful – albeit amusing to see him ‘explode’ – (IMO) the Sky empire should consider removing him altogether.

  37. @ Rosie P

    Newsnight
    What a hoot the. The Daily Mail and the Newstatesman side by side rabidly against Hezza and Hughes.

    Boulton Campbell

    I hope they both get consigned to the dustbin.

  38. @Rosie P
    ”IMO let them get on with it for now”
    _______________________

    Yes, you are right, that is the cool response. We have to gear up for the long haul but it is fascinating to compare the reality of the power-grab with what was dished out during the campaign.

  39. Brilliant, this engine predicted Waveney, a very marginal seat, totally spot on.

    I think that there’s an error with Great Yarmouth though. The result is not reflected and the ‘click for details’ links to Great Grimsby.

    Rgds/

  40. Think Thirsk could actually be interesting. As Eoin said it’s a safe Tory seat and we can expect them to win comfortably, but it’s a seat in which Labour finished second last time suggesting there was no tactical voting to mask the level of Lib Dem support. Therefore we should be able to judge the immediate effect of the coalition on the ‘pure’ Lib Dem support – up or unchanged and it suggests their rank and file are happy with the arrangement, down and they really have alienated their grass roots support.

    The obvious caveat that this applies to only one small part of the country where they are not particularly strong anyway, and other areas may play out differently – but with nothing else to go on…

  41. Nick Robinson also has a blog comparing Cameron to Disraeli if anyone is interested. (BBC)

  42. And a reminder of the comments policy – this is not a place to debate the merits of government policy, since it would inevitably become just another site for partisan ranting. That includes the long screeds about 55% yesterday. Keep them to the previous thread, which I let become general discussion.

  43. @ Pete B – yes, it will be interesting to see if there’s a drop in Lib Dem support, though the other caveat is that – like any single poll or election – it’s a snapshot of a particular moment. My guess is that the Lib Dem Executive calculated that a drop in support would happen but would likely be temporary.

  44. What I meant about LibDem support was, say the poll ratings next time are 20% (?) do we lop off 4-5% for soft support, or can we assume what happened this time is a one-off?

    Not sure it’s possible to find a reliable method for how much here. Also we are still factoring in a certain amount of shy-toryness – not so much as before. Next election is going to be complicated!

  45. Sorry, Anthony, read your request after my post.

  46. Map. Great Yarmouth result incorrect. Tory gain.

  47. Anthony

    Cut us some slack. We haven’t had a poll for days – it’s cold turkey time! ;)

    For some reasons Hove and Brighton Kemptown positions are wrong way round on map.

  48. Hi folks
    Does anyone know what the UNS seat prediction would have been for the actual election percentages, C36.9% L29.7% LD23.6%? Now that the UNS feature here has been updated I’m not sure how to check for myself.

  49. I could not hazard any guess at all what the outcome of Thirsk might be.
    Delighted Libs to finally be in power with a shot at AV?
    Devastated Libs who don’t want to support a Tory gov?
    Delighted Tories? Miserable Tories?
    Labour surge? Labour slump?

    Just don’t know at all. When is it by the way?

  50. Sue,

    Thirsk election will be on Thursday 27th May.

    It will be a Con hold, but with reduced nominal majority. However, this will be due to low turnout, not any swing away from Con. Chances are that LDs will take second place ahead of Lab, with improved share of vote for residual Liberal party and for UKIP.

    Doubt that any increase in UKIP vote will be due to sympathy for the deceased candidate whose death caused delay to this election. More likely to do with disgruntled Cons reminding PM where his party loyalties should lie.

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