There are two post-election polls in tomorrow’s papers. A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times found 62% think that Gordon Brown should concede defeat, wih 28% thinking he is right to wait to see if the Conservative and Liberal Democrat negotiations fail. Asked who should form the next government 48% of respondents thought there should be either a Conservative minority or a Con/LD coalition. 31% favoured a Lab/LD agreement.

62% said they supported a change to a more proportional system, with only 13% supporting FPTP. You can get a lot of variation in FPRP v PR survey questions depending upon how the question is asked, but if this question is a repeat of one of YouGov’s previous electoral reform questions it is probably a big jump in support for electoral reform.

ICM also have post-election poll. They found similar preferences on who should form the government, 51% wanted a Conservative minority (18%) or Conservative/LD coalition (33%) and 32% wanted a Lab/LD coalition. ICM however found considerably less support for electoral reform – 48% supported PR, but 39% supported sticking with FPTP.


889 Responses to “ICM and YouGov post-election polls”

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  1. @ Sue Marsh

    Perfect – long may it continue 8-)

  2. @Owain,

    That’ll be the same digitalatti who were all going to vote LibDem?

  3. Amber – lol.

    It’s funny isn’t it. I’ve said it before, but AC, PM and GB, love em or utterly loathe ’em (I DO accept both views are held :) )
    are probably the sharpest political operators in all of Europe. I would never underestimate them. If they WANT a deal, I wouldn’t rule one out, but do they????

  4. @ Sue & Julian & Xiby

    Think the best of the lot was Jeremy Hardy’s version:

    (Gordon goes to see the Queen at the Palace)

    Brown: Listen, your maj, what I’m about to propose isn’t all that democratic, but you know all about that don’t you? See, we could have a Tory government, because they got the most votes and the most seats. But, bear in mind, that George Osbourne would then be Chancellor. Yes, exactly. So just give me the Grenadier Guards and some tanks and I’ll carry on.

    There’s no government more stable than a dictatorship :)

  5. This Italy an election every year since the war is all hogwash. Please do not talk about things you know nothing about.

    Know how many elections Italy has had since 1999… 3. How many did we have….3. Now using Italy as an example of how PR works is also a gross mis-representation. The problem with Italy is not their system but their tribalism and cultural background.

    Have Germany, Sweeden, New Zeland, Austria, Spain etc etc etc etc had an election every year since the war… the answer is a clear NO. PR produced the stong government of Kohl so please save me the hysterics.

  6. Loving the joking!

    I bet even funnier things have been said than we can even dream up!

  7. For a supposed international financial crisis, it seems to me that everyone is having far too much fun :)

    And you know why? Things are nowhere near as bad as people are saying.

  8. By the way do we get Prime Minister Question time on Wednesday? Because that will be the funniest thing ever.

  9. @XIBY
    Well said.

  10. @Neil A
    “That’ll be the same digitalatti who were all going to vote LibDem?”

    Who’s to say they didn’t? Maybe they make up a portion of their 1% increase?

    @ DT 2010
    “No,just seeing it as i see it.”

    You put your views across in a very biased manner, rather than making any attempt to appear non-partisan as most of us here do. You state opinion as fact, you don’t phrase suppositions as questions, you make misleading statements time and again despite being corrected on them… (I believe you’ve brought up Italy having an election each year before and been set straight)

  11. Xiby

    Italy on average has had a GE every 12 months since the second world war.

    HOGWASH?(JUST TO THE YEAR 2000)

    De Gasperi 1 Dc Pci Psi Pli Dl Paz; December 10, 1945 to July 1, 1946; 203 days.

    De Gasperi 2 Dc Pci Psi Pri; July 13, 1946 to January 20, 1947; 191 days.

    De Gasperi 3 Dc Pci Psi; February 2, 1947 to May 13, 1947; 100 days.

    De Gasperi 4 Dc Pli Psli Pri; May 31, 1947 to May 12, 1948; 347 days.

    De Gasperi 5 Dc Pli Psli Pri; May 23, 1948 to January 12, 1950; 599 days.

    De Gasperi 6 Dc Psli Pri; January 27, 1950 to July 16, 1951; 535 days.

    De Gasperi 7 Dc Pri; July 26, 1951 to June 29, 1953; 704 days.

    De Gasperi 8 monocolore Dc; July 16, 1953 to July 28, 1953; 12 days.

    Pella monocolore Dc; August 17, 1953 to January 5, 1954; 141 days.

    Fanfani 1 monocolore Dc; January 18, 1954 to January 30, 1954; 12 days.

    Scelba Dc Psdi Pli; February 10, 1954 to June 22, 1955; 497 days.

    Segni 1 Dc Psdi Pli; July 6, 1955 to May 5, 1957; 670 days.

    Zoli monocolore Dc; May 19, 1957 to June 19, 1958; 396 days.

    Fanfani 2 Dc Psdi; July 1, 1958 to January 26, 1959; 209 days.

    Segni 2 monocolore Dc; February 15, 1959 to February 24, 1960; 374 days.

    Tambroni monocolore Dc; March 25, 1960 to July 19, 1960; 116 days.

    Fanfani 3 monocolore Dc; July 26, 1960 to February 2, 1962; 556 days.

    Fanfani 4 Dc Psdi Pri; February 21, 1962 to May 16, 1963; 449 days.

    Leone 1 monocolore Dc; June 21, 1963 to November 5, 1963; 137 days.

    Moro 1 Dc Psi Psdi Pri; December 4, 1963 to June 26, 1964; 205 days.

    Moro 2 Dc Psi Psdi Pri; July 22, 1964 to January 21, 1966; 548 days.

    Moro 3 Dc Psi Psdi Pri; February 23, 1966 to June 5, 1968; 833 days.

    Leone 2 monocolore Dc; June 24, 1968 to November 19, 1968; 148 days.

    Rumor 1 Dc Psu Pri; December 12, 1968 to July 5, 1969; 205 days.

    Rumor 2 monocolore Dc; August 5, 1969 al 07/02/70; 186 days.

    Rumor 3 Dc Psi Psdi Pri; March 27, 1970 to July 6, 1970; 101 days.

    Colombo Dc Psi Psdi Pri; August 6, 1970 to January 15, 1972; 527 days.

    Andreotti 1 monocolore Dc; February 17, 1972 to February 26, 1972; 9 days.

    Andreotti 2 Dc Psdi Pli; June 26, 1972 to June 12, 1973; 351 days.

    Rumor 4 Dc Psi Psdi Pri; July 7, 1973 to March 2, 1974; 230 days.

    Rumor 5 Dc Psi Psdi; March 14, 1974 to October 3, 1974; 203 days.

    Moro 4 Dc Pri; November 23, 1974 to January 7, 1976; 406 days.

    Moro 5 monocolore Dc; February 12, 1976 to April 30, 1976; 78 days.

    Andreotti 3 monocolore Dc; July 29, 1976 to January 16, 1978; 536 days.

    Andreotti 4 monocolore Dc; March 11, 1978 to January 31, 1979; 326 days.

    Andreotti 5 Dc Pri Psdi; March 20, 1979 to March 31, 1979; 11 days.

    Cossiga 1 Dc Psdi Pli; August 4, 1979 to March 19, 1980; 228 days.

    Cossiga 2 Dc Psi Pri; April 4, 1980 to September 27, 1980; 176 days.

    Forlani Dc Psi Psdi Pri; October 18, 1980 to May 26, 1981; 220 days.

    Spadolini Dc Psi Psdi Pri Pli; June 28, 1981 to August, 1982; 405 days.

    Spadolini 2 Dc Psi Psdi Pri Pli; August 23, 1982 to November 13, 1982; 82 days.

    Fanfani 5 Dc Psi Psdi Pli; December 1, 1982 to April 29, 1983; 149 days.

    Craxi 1 Dc Psi Psdi Pri Pli; August 4, 1983 to June 27, 1986; 1058 days.

    Craxi 2 Dc Psi Psdi Pri Pli; August 1, 1986 to March 3, 1987; 214 days.

    Fanfani 6 Dc Indipendenti; April 17, 1987 to April 28, 1987; 11 days.

    Goria Dc Psi Pri Psdi Pli; July 28, 1987 to March 11, 1988; 227 days.

    De Mita Dc Psi Pri Psdi Pli; April 13, 1988 to May 19, 1989; 401 days.

    Andreotti 6 Dc Psi Pri Psdi Pli; July 22, 1989 to March 29, 1991; 615 days.

    Andreotti 7 Dc Psi Psdi Pli; April 12, 1991 to April 24, 1992; 378 days.

    Amato 1 Dc Psi Psdi Pli; June 28, 1992 to April 22, 1993; 298 days.

    Ciampi Dc Psi Psdi Pli; April 28, 1993 to April 16, 1994; 353 days.

    Berlusconi Fi Ln An Ccd Udc; May 10, 1994 to December 22, 1994; 226 days.

    Dini Cabinet of “technocrats”; January 17, 1995 to may 17, 1996; 486 days.

    Prodi L’Ulivo; May 18, 1996 to October 9, 1998; 874 days.

    D’Alema L’Ulivo Pdci Udr; October 21, 1998 to December 18, 1999; 423 days.

    D’Alema 2 Ulivo Pdci Udeur; December 22, 1999 to April 19, 2000; 119 days.

    Amato 2 Centrosinistra; since April 25, 2000.

  12. @ Sue Marsh – Sue you are so right about AC/GB and PM – brilliant! And if they want a deal they’ll get it!

    As you queston, Do they want it? There would be some advantages in not being in power during a period of austerity – but in that case they’ll get the blame! So it might be ok to be in some form of minority administration so ‘blame’ might be shared.

    Regardless of Robert Peston’s contagion, things might be less austere than commentators are going on about (I must emphasise might) – for example, the all important oil price has fallen 12% since mid-April.

    Anyway, for now let’s see if we can find out where PM is – unless he only comes out at night! Brilliant.

  13. Clegg “We will be guided by our 4 …………..

    it seems to me put with the National Interest and William Hague.

    Plan A Con/Lib Dem 4 year deal isn’t going to happen.

    Plan B Conservative Minority Government.

    Plan C Vince Cable working on Lab/Lib arrangements

    Personally Plan B a Conservative minority government is likely to spook the markets and is not viable.

    The Lib Dems won’t be able to prop it up and the DUP is not enough even if minded to to prop it up.

  14. So rather than simply amend your point by adding a vital “on average” you felt the need to spam a list probably taken from wikipedia.
    Sigh.

  15. This is the UK, not Italy, Perhaps there is an ItalyPolling report.

  16. The impression is being given that these talks are making progress.

    What is the area of imperative, with no choice for either side?

    Debt reduction.

    What are the areas of commonality?

    Socially liberal/ Small Government ( aka Big Society)/Political accountability

    What are the areas of difference?

    Voting system/ EU powers / Defence

    So -if the talks fail, because the minor party ( LibDems) balks at differences in any of those three areas-Cons will say :-

    Voting system is not important at present.
    EU is in chaos.
    We are at war.

    And for this/these issues LibDEms have sacrificed stable government in an economic crisis.

    Cons-largest party/most popular party/increased votes/increased seats.

    Lib Dems-smallest of main three parties/reduced seats.

    Who looks good?
    Who looks bad?
    Who takes the blame?

    A lot of pressure on NC-which is why I am reading the words his team use very carefully. They are definitely nuanced at present.

    I think NC/DC get on-that was the first thing they established.

    Fascinating.

  17. @ Sue Marsh

    I venture to suggest, the Conservatives may have been desperate for a deal by Monday in case the markets do NOT melt-down at the prospect of a Labour care-taker/ minority government.

  18. “By the way do we get Prime Minister Question time on Wednesday? Because that will be the funniest thing ever.”

    Yes we do. As it stands, that will be Gordon Brown and 30 very predictable minutes of “why don’t you resign?”

    [No we don’t, the new Parliament will not assemble until next week, and then there are a few days of MPs taking the oath before anything actually happens – AW]

  19. Prodi L’Ulivo; May 18, 1996 to October 9, 1998; 874 days.
    D’Alema L’Ulivo Pdci Udr; October 21, 1998 to December 18, 1999; 423 days.
    D’Alema 2 Ulivo Pdci Udeur; December 22, 1999 to April 19, 2000; 119 days.
    Amato 2 Centrosinistra; since April 25, 2000.

    this was one government, no elections in between. They just changed leaders, but that is Italy for you. Mention one more country which has PR, (by far the most used system in democracies around the world) that have such a list.

  20. Having lived in Italy, it IS a basket case, but as Xiby rightly points out, that is because it is Italy, not because it is a coalition!

    Any country that has an MP who was a porn star, who flashes her breasticles every time she feels like making a point, A PM who has been investigated for links with the Mafia for about 30 years but never gets chucked out, and has healthy communist and fascist parties really ought not to count when we consider how effective a coalition might be ;)

  21. Pam F Owain Xiby

    Whats you’re problem,i was challenged and supplied proof.

    Have you got a problem with that.

    Do you query the data,if not less of the verbals please.

  22. @ Amber
    “I venture to suggest, the Conservatives may have been desperate for a deal by Monday in case the markets do NOT melt-down at the prospect of a Labour care-taker/ minority government.”

    Nice idea, but the stock brokers are a bunch of drama queens, and anyway the Greece crisis is bound to have a negative effect regardless which the Tories could pretend is down to the UK situation.

  23. @Xiby,

    Italian political stability in the 21st century is entirely down to their “winner’s bonus” system that automatically gives the party with highest total an extra chunk of seats that give it 54% of the seats in parliament.

    Would you have liked that system to operate in the UK in 2010? I’m sure Cameron would have appreciated the extra 30 odd seats, and I’m sure you’re right that it would have led to 4-5 years of stable government before the next election….

  24. Having lived in Italy, it IS a basket case, but as Xiby rightly points out, that is because it is Italy, not because it is a coalition!
    Any country that has an MP who was a naughty movie star, who flashes her breasticles every time she feels like making a point, A PM who has been investigated for links with the Mafia for about 30 years but never gets chucked out, and has healthy communist and fascist parties really ought not to count when we consider how effective a coalition might be

  25. @ DT 2010
    “Whats you’re problem,i was challenged and supplied proof.
    Have you got a problem with that.
    Do you query the data,if not less of the verbals please.”

    Quite aside from failing to grasp the niceties of a non-partisan forum you apparently fail to grasp etiquette common to all online discussion – you should have provided said evidence as a *link* rather than as *spam*

  26. Colin

    I have an alternative narrative.

    Its called Growth and Recovery and not jeopardising it for dogmatic reasons. The so called markets are and have been perfectly happy for us to start deficit reduction next year. They wont be happy if we have cuts and contraction .

  27. @Amber Star
    “I venture to suggest, the Conservatives may have been desperate for a deal by Monday in case the markets do NOT melt-down at the prospect of a Labour care-taker/ minority government.”

    I understand that Cameron isn’t even going to present the deal to his MPs until Monday night, and they might reject it.

  28. FWIW, Italy also has about 14 parties on the left and 12 on the right (from memory) Any gov has to form a coalition that encompasses every extreme within, no wonder it never lasts long really

  29. A promise by Labour of a referendum on PR is not worth much for the following resasons.

    1. It would take very few Lab rebels to defeat the bill for a referendum.
    2. It would take very few Lab or LD rebels on any other bill to defeat it and force a vote of confidence.
    3. The much of the country (Especially England) will see such a Government as a coalition of loosers and have contempt for them.
    4. The elctorate will see this coalition of loosers as what to expect if there is no clear winner from an election, which is the inevitable result of PR.
    5. The press will have a field day pasting them as a the Coaltion of loosers.
    6. Clegg will not do a deal with Brown so there would be an unseemly interegnum whilst LAb decided on their new leader, and the new PM which will appear totally undemocratic especially after the leaders debates. the markets will paste the pound in the mean time.

    As a result of all of the above the electorate would defeat any referendum on PR soundly in IMO and the LD’s would have lost their opportunity to change from FPTP for half a century.

    This would be followed by an immediate collapse of the LAb/Ld govt, a GE and a thumping Con majority and the wipe out of the LD for causing the mess in the first place.

    Clegg is not stupid and nor are his MP’s and party. They might have prefered a deal with Lab but know that realistically Cameron is the only game in town.

    What they are quite rightly doing is trying to win as much from the game as they can.

  30. What kind of idiot starts a petition 3 days after an election asking the LD’s & Tories not to do a deal. There is no god given rule that says only LD’s & Labour may do deals. The people wanted a hung parliament, they got one. Please don’t now complain when the politicians actually try to work together. If they do manage a deal then they will represent 59% of those who voted. You would get this result after every election with PR.

    I will be glad when this site returns to normal as there are some absolutely childish comments on here tonight, mostly aimed, it seems at the Tories. (Imagined conversations etc).

  31. @ PETE B

    All the talk earlier was that Cameron had brought that meeting with MPs forward to tonight.

    Has it been moved back again?

  32. @Decision

    In fact if you need to know there have been 17 elections in Italy since the war, so please get your facts straight and stop with your scare politics.

    I have been very cordial on this forum, as that is the kind of person I am, but when someone comes here all high and mighty thinking he knows it all and spouts mis-information, then I stop being nice.

  33. Rosie P

    Lets not be personal. William Hague is the key player for Cameron. If William buys it it flies if he doesn’t then Cam has a very big problem.

    Mandy was in Downing Street.

    Still can’t find out where Vince Cable has been or present whereabouts.

  34. @Robert in France,

    “I will be glad when this site returns to normal as there are some absolutely childish comments on here tonight, mostly aimed, it seems at the Tories. (Imagined conversations etc).”

    For what it’s worth, I agree with you 110%. The irony is that a lot of Labourites have complained about the odd Tory partisan post, and yet Tories have been labelled all manner of things in the last few days!!!!

  35. @Amber,

    According to Jack (who seems to know more than any of us) there are two meetings. Tonight with some Tory MPs and tomorrow with the whole caucus.

  36. Jack Jackson

    “They wont be happy if we have cuts and contraction .”

    a) Cutting wastefull /unproductive state spending is conducive to private sector growth.
    You are conflating “the government” with “the economy”.

    b)hwill be very happy if we have cuts.

    c) You are right-they will not be happy if we have (re)contraction-it is what they fear if we lack decisive government.

  37. @John Fletcher
    “A promise by Labour of a referendum on PR is not worth much for the following resasons.”

    There’s another reason – Labour have already double-crossed the Libs twice – late 70s (li-lab pact) and the Jenkins report under Blair.

  38. Owain

    It seems you get all upset when someone queries you,thats democracy,i am allowed another opinion,as a lot of posters for instance say Germany has PR and everythings great,i am entitled to put facts and arguments for another opinion.

    This isn’t the, liberal UK opinion poll

    Israel is dogged by a perpetually hung parliament thanks to PR, which has regularly hampered leaders’ attempts to push through controversial policies. In the words of Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser: “Designing policy in Israel is like writing poetry while standing on a ball.”

    The Guardian 29 April 2010

    Now this is officially a Lib-dem paper.

  39. Amber Starr

    Meeting tomorrow at the Commons. Available this afternoon for hand holding

  40. Poland has PR and they have coalitions or one party rule which generally last their terms.
    At the moment there are 4 parties in the parliament, the largest and the smallest have been in a coalition for the last two and a half years and look set to continue to a full term.
    What’s the problem?

  41. @ John Fletcher

    As for the perception of a “coalition of losers” I believe Lib/Lab could avoid that if they play things right, as stated in some of my previous posts. It would be quite easy for them to defang the Tories and their media attack-dogs with a bit of imagination.

  42. “This isn’t the, liberal UK opinion poll”

    No, but 90% of posters on here are of the left-wing variety (i.e. anti-Tory).

  43. @ NEIL A

    Thanks for that.

    BTW – Imaginary conversations etc. are definitely not intended to be offensive; if mine were, then I apologise to you.

  44. @Neil A

    You do not need to tell me about the changes in Italy as that is one of my pet subjects, but comparing Italy to England, or to use the Italy political scenario as an example of PR is utter hogwash.

    If you need to know the reasons for the Italian instability they are to a large extent:

    1. the presence of strong fascist and communist voices still present since the war.
    2. The big divide between southern and northern regions
    3. the mafia
    4. corruption
    5. a culture that is entirely different to ours
    6. the presence of 60 odd political parties

    simply to mention a few.

  45. Lord Maclennan

    Cabinet Office spokesman

    “We have to put the interests of the country first, and a government of all the talents of the three major parties would make a lot of sense in these circumstances, where we have our backs to the wall economically.”

    Damn I’m good.

  46. This is no longer a pleasant place to spend time so I’m going elsewhere.. After to being subjected to extreme right wing comments last night, which were not moderated, andy attempt to respond is then moderated. Goodness me. tories, stockbrokers you are all blind. How right wing the Labour Party has become.
    This is a cliquey forum, not a place for open, friendly discussion. Pity.

  47. I don’t see that it matters to us what Italy does with its democratic procedures. It’s a G8 country so they must be doing something right!

    I don’t follow the blogs and lists, except this one, and the results are in the heading of the thread.

    So I detect that gradually it is beginning to dawn on some people that there is another way.

    Ages ago I mentioned the Frys Chocolate 5 boys advert – it reminds me of that.
    But you are all too young to remember that one.

  48. “This isn’t the, liberal UK opinion poll”
    No, but 90% of posters on here are of the left-wing variety (i.e. anti-Tory).

    True, but the site is supposed to be non-partisan, and there are rules to that effect.

  49. Colin

    Public sector and private sector makes up the economy.

    Currently the public sector is bloated due to the contraction of the private sector for 6 quarters and additional costs of the recession.

    So you work it out. If you cut the public sector before the private sector is strong enough to make back what its lost. You get cut and contraction as a whole.

  50. @ROBERT IN FRANCE -“I will be glad when this site returns to normal as there are some absolutely childish comments on here tonight, mostly aimed, it seems at the Tories. (Imagined conversations etc).”
    Nobody is stopping you making your own anti Labour imagined conversation.
    If it’s funny I assure you we will laugh along with you. :)

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