Some stats from the general election
Seats where the Conservative share fell
There were 75 seats where the Conservative share of the vote fell. Their biggest falls were Westmorland and Lonsdale (the effect of Tim Farron building up a mountainous personal vote), Bromsgrove (presumably the result of Julie Kirkbride’s expenses – though there were two other cases of ethnic minority Conservative candidates inheriting safe seats and receiving a lower share of vote), Sheffield Hallam (the Clegg factor no doubt), Folkestone and Hythe (probably the loss of Michael Howard’s personal vote as leader), Castle Point (where the former Conservative MP Bob Spink split their vote).
Biggest Conservative increases
The biggest Conservative increase was 16% in Hartlepool, taking second place from the Liberal Democrats (probably the by-election factor slowly unwinding), followed by Montgomeryshire (where Lembit Opik fell), Esher and Walton, Crewe and Nantwich (the by-election effect), Cardiff Central (a strange one there, the Conservatives are in third place), Camborne and Redruth (unseating Julia Goldsworthy from third place).
Seats where the Labour vote rose
There were 80 seats where Labour increased their share of the vote – over half of these were in Scotland, many others were seats with a large Muslim population where the Iraq war effect in 2005 seemed to reverse somewhat. The biggest increases in Labour’s vote were Blaenau Gwent, where they reclaimed the seat from the Independent MP, East Ham and West Ham (where Respect performed well in 2005 but did not stand in 2010), Glenrothes (after the successful by-election defence), Dunbartonshire West, Edinburgh West (where they took second place from the Conservatives) and Bethnal Green and Bow (another of the three Labour Gains).
Biggest Labour falls
The biggest drop in the Labour vote was 24% in Barnsley East, a seat so safe they probably barely felt it. The main beneficiary there was a new BNP candidate. This was followed by Hemel Hempstead (putting them into 3rd place in a seat they held till 2005), Redcar, Don Valley (making Caroline Flint’s seat a marginal – the votes went to new BNP, UKIP and English Democrat candidates), Norfolk North West (where their candidate went spectacularly off message in the days before the election), Cannock Chase (the “safest” Labour seat that was won by the Conservatives) and Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper’s seat).
Biggest Lib Dem increases
Three seats stand out with huge increases in their vote – most notably the incredible performance in Redcar, Mo Mowlam’s old seat, which fell on a 21.8% swing, wiping out a 31% majority – presumably on the back of the mothballing of the Corus steelworks. Almost as large was the increase in the Lib Dem vote in Ashfield, Geoff Hoon’s old seat inherited by Gloria de Piero, which the Lib Dems only narrowly missed out on. Less remarked upon was a 17% increase in the Lib Dem vote in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. After that the best performances were Dunfermline and Fife (by-election factor, though not enough to hold the seat), Westmoreland and Lonsdale (the Tim Farron effect), Ceredigion, Maidstone and the Weald, Brent Central (Sarah Teather gambling on going for the difficult option when her seat was abolished… and making the right choice).
Worst Lib Dem peformances
The biggest drop was Orpington, where they lost whatever following their candidate Chris Maines had built up after fighting the seat hard at multiple elections. Following that their worst performances were Edinburgh West, Hartlepool (fading by-election effect), Montgomeryshire (Lembit Opik) and Haltemprice and Howden.
Biggest swings from Lab => Conservative
36 seats had a swing from Labour to Conservative of over 10%. The biggest were Hemel Hempstead (CON HOLD – 14.4%), Cannock Chase (CON GAIN – 14%), Barnsley East (LAB HOLD – 13.9%), Crewe and Nantwich (CON “GAIN” – 13.7%), Norwich North (CON “GAIN” – 12.9%), Hartlepool (LAB HOLD – 12.8%), Sittingbourne and Sheppey (CON “HOLD” – 12.7%). The biggest swings in the other direction were Blaenau Gwent (-7.7) and East Ham (-7.7).
Biggest swings from Lab => LD
There were 29 seats with a swing from Labour to Lib Dem. The biggest were Redcar (LD GAIN – 21.8), Ashfield (LAB HOLD – 17.2), Merthyr Tydfil (LAB HOLD – 16.9), Barnsley East (LAB HOLD – 14), St Albans (CON HOLD – 13.8), Bosworth (CON HOLD – 13.8), Norfolk North West (CON HOLD – 13.3). Note some of those movements beneath the surface where the Conservative MPs vote remained pretty unchanged but the Lib Dems overtook Labour and took a strong second place on large Lab=>LD swings. The biggest swings in the other direction were mostly in Scotland, the largest were Edinburgh West (-11.3), Orpington (-9.5) and Paisley and Renfrewshire North (-8).
Biggest swings between Con and LD
The largest swings from LD to Con were Hartlepool, Montgomeryshire, Orpington, St Ives and Cardiff Central. The biggest swings in the other direction were Redcar, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Ashfield and Dunfermline and Fife.
Highest shares and lost deposits
The Conservatives won 125 seats with over 50% of the vote. The highest were Richmond Yorkshire (62.8%), Beaconsfield (61.1%) and Windsor (60.9%). They lost their deposit in two seats, Glasgow East (4.5%) and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (4.4%).
Labour won 76 seats with over 50% of the vote. The highest were Liverpool Walton (72%), Knowsley (70.9%), East Ham (70.4%). They lost their deposit in 5 seats, all tight LD-v-Con marginals: Eastbourne (4.8%), Somerton and Frome (4.4%), Newbury (4.3%), Cornwall North (4.2%), Westmorland and Lonsdale (2.3%).
The Liberal Democrats won 12 seats with over 50% of the vote. The highest were Orkney and Shetland (62%), Westmorland and Lonsdale (60%), Bath (56.7%). They managed to save all their deposits, with their lowest share of the vote being Glasgow East (5%).
Minor parties and Independents
The BNP saved 72 deposits. Their strongest performances were Barking, Dagenham and Rotherham. UKIP saved 98 deposits, their strongest performances were Buckingham, Boston and Skegness and Christchurch. The Green party saved 7 deposits – their best performance was obviously Brighton Pavilion, followed by Norwich South.
The English Democrats put up 107 candidates and saved 1 deposit in Doncaster North (5.2%). The Christian party put up 70 candidates, and lost all their deposits. Their highest vote was 1.8% in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey.
The highest votes for Independents and others were obviously Buckingham, Wyre Forest, Castle Point (where Bob Spink did surprisingly well for a former MP standing as an Independent) and Blaenau Gwent. Less obvious strong performances came in Makerfield, Mansfield, Hemsworth, West Ham, Dewsbury and Sleaford and North Hykeham.
Safest seats, closest marginals
The safest seats are Liverpool Walton (Lab, 57.7%), Knowsley (Lab, 57.5%), Liverpool West Derby (Lab, 56.2%). The safest Lib Dem seat in Orkney and Shetland (51.3%). The safest Conservative seat is Richmond Yorkshire (43.7%). There are 40 seats with majorities under 1000, including 5 with majorities under 100 – Thurrock (92), Bolton West (92), Camborne and Redruth (66), Warwickshire North (54), Hampstead and Kilburn (42). All the figures on this post are based only on Great Britain – in Northern Ireland we had the narrowest majority of all, 4 votes in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.
Conservatives in Scotland?
The diference between the Conservative performance in Wales and Scotland is surely due to the difference between Plaid and SNP. One is now devolutionist rather than seperatist therefore more definitely social democratic. The SNP can still present as a right wing party in the seats it holds strangling possible Tory advance
The problem for them is they will eventually have to give up on the separitism
Interesting to see Simon Hughes on Newsnight tonight. The body language has slightlyy changed. It is now ‘political’ rather than ‘electoral’ reform also not a question of ‘if’ a deal will be done, but ‘when’ and ‘who’. I think the LD’s have realised (perhaps they knew all the time)that they have nowhere else to go, simply on the basis of the maths (and the credibility). I think they have also realised that if the markets crash on Monday, it will not be seen as Cameron’s fault.
It remains a huge opportunity for the LD’s to act as a brake on Tory cuts, and for DC to sideline the hardliners determined to decimate the welfare state. It will happen, probably by Monday lunchtime. PB are offering 4/1 for Cable as the next Chancellor. Tempting?
DT 2010
In short, the Liberals are in a total mess.
What a lovely mess to be in – happy as a pig……..
from where I am observing
I fail to understand the ‘elected Prime Minister’ argument. We do not elect a prime minister, we elect a Member of Parliament.
Now the Prime Minister is ‘elected’ if you like by the MPs themselves. The majority of MPs elected will choose one amongst them that they have confidence in. If any one MP can get the support of 50%+1 of MPs, then he is Prime Minister. But we DO NOT elect PMs, there is no place on the ballot where we vote for a PM or even a party for that matter. We simply vote for MPs, so please either speak of the system we have or go to america and discuss theirs if that is a system you prefer.
Steve Wheeler
“David in France” got closest in my opinion and had the narrative
You mean we didn’t have a PM in the early 90′s because he wasn’t elected?????
Simply ridiculous!!!
Ash
ooops..
I used blueys 2005 figures (wiki put them in different orders on each of the diff elections)
My mistake
@Salem
see Ash’s post
The libs will give in on PR,Clegg has no mandate,he may even be unsecure in his own position within months after his terrible performance in the GE.
DC will not give an inch on PR,he also is on probation,he was tolerated because he was ahead in the opinion polls,won Local/EU Elections,but 36% of the vote is not good enough.
The libs wanted to play with the big boys,after the next couple of weeks they may wish to be in the shadows again.
I expect there is a good chance the Libs may break out into civil war.
The orange-bookers in the Libs are all for a tory-lib coalition,the rest are not.
They’ll be a deal I think.
May include a referendum on voting reform, but with caveat that Tories can campaign against it.
Does anyone know why Esher and Walton had the third biggest swing to the Tories anywhere in the country?
It’s a safe Tory seat in which the Tory candidate resigned over the expenses scandal and nobody knew the new candidate (and there was said to be local anger that he was imposed there).
And the neighbouring seats are Tory safe seats that saw little change in the share of the vote.
Very odd!
What we need is another election. The Lib Dems don’t really want to partner with the Conservatives. If they partner with Labour then there is still no majority. Labour has dismissed the SNP and the Ulster Unionists won’t touch a Labour.Lib pact with a barge pole.
It’s an unworkable parlimament. The straight facts for the PR supporters is that even with PR this result is unworkable!
@Neil Turner,
We can’t really accept that an election result can be “unworkable” because of what that implies for PR. Do we have a set of political parties that cannot “do” coalition?
anybody ever go on facebook? there are a couple of very anti-tory groups. i.e. don’t vote tory, libs don’t do a deal with nasty tories etc.
makes me think that their is quite a bit of anti-toff/anti-tory vote in young people?
not too sure why this is? is it an anti-establishment, uni/socialist view?
Cameron and Clegg in one to one talks; lasted 70 mins -’constructive and amicable’[BBC News].
I would think that it is Nick Clegg who is now between a rock and a hard place.
After what he came out and said to those protestors today, I would think his party now will expect, and accept nothing less than a promise of a referendum on changing the voting system.
That could take 2 years to arrange.
Does anyone seriously believe that Cameron would not call another GE within 18 months under the current system to try and achieve a majority ?
On the other hand, could a Lab/Lib/Nationalist pact last 2 years ?
The offer of immediate electoral reform by Labour to the LibDems is not attractive to Clegg because it is too obviously a final attempt by Labour to cling on to power at any cost. I think Clegg sees the Tory offer as more genuine and they are giving it respect because Cameron has been clear as to what he would not concede ie economy, immigration etc. Clegg is in a difficult position in demanding too much because he has just led his party to doing slightly worse than they did in 2005. He may be satisfied with a referendum on electoral reform in a year’s time say as a sort of reward for joining forces with the Tories and perhaps getting the economy really moving again. I do not see how he can join forces with Labour, thereby seeking to exclude the party with proportionately the greatest share of the popular vote. There seems to be a will on both sides – Tory and LibDem to do a deal, and if that is the case they will – notwithstanding dissenting voices in either party.
Italy has PR.
They love it,they have had a GE on average every year since the Second World War.
PR.no thanks!
@Richard
The most offensive FB group any of my friends have joined is “who’s up for a riot if the Tories get in?”. It would be bad enough even if it hadn’t been created the same week that three Greek bank employees were murdered in the Athens riot.
I think the internet, for some people, encourages idle stupidity. Even I joined in, buying two downloads of Rage’s “Killing in the Name” (great tune though – used to love it in the rock clubs).
Neil Turner
“It’s an unworkable parlimament”
Not at all. There is a deal to be done and both sides can do it. Clegg will want to show that consensus politics can work. There will be an arrangement. Brown’s words the other day are a warning to Cameron. Do a deal or we will at any cost. Clegg can go to Cameron with PR demands saying Brown will give it to us, they’re gagging for it.
It will be a pact not a coalition. LD will support Con where it is feasible and Con will work on core issues of economic recovery and general running the country. They’ll make it work for 3 years. 6 months to agree reform and 2.5 years for the boundary commission to do their work. There’ll be a new election based on new constituencies with a new voting system. Now that will be fun.
@Andrew Holden,
My understanding is that there has to be a written agreement between the coalition partners, and that is very likely to include some wording on when and if new elections can be called. The rumour is a four year deal which suggests they intend to run a proper collaborative coalition government for a full term.
What price there is a minority govt then the orange bookers cross the floor and take the tory whip with a promise to be able to stand in their seats as a Tory at the next election which will be in a few months. October 14th seems favorite.
I think another election within 18 months has to be close to even money. whatever happens.
Tories would need around 1% swing to get a majority.
DT2010 – what a ridicilous argument against PR. Dozens of European countries have PR, but you choose the one that suits your argument. Seems to indicate that you don’t really have a good/real argument against it (and you choose to ignore my previous comments about the centre-left having more than 52% of the votes in England even after this dismal result).
The sooner yellow and blue do a deal the better for one and all.
Yellow so they can finally get a taste of power
Blue so they can dmonstrate that they have modernised
Red so that they can renew themselves
Lets get to it :) :)
Mind you, I doubt there will be PR. Although I have said since February that Clegg would only do a deal with Cameron, I have also said that I think PR would fail. The no campaign would be energised. Blue traditionalists would feel that after pateintly sitting out 13 years of government while reds sometimes with just 36% of the vote had a majority, that the minute they get 36% it is not good enough.
They might be tempted with this slogan….
“36%s are equal but some 36%s are more unequal than others.
Isn’t it time to accept that our politics have already moved to a broader spread of parties and that our Victorian electoral system needs to catch up?
With 35% of the vote going to the smaller parties (including LD), that leaves the two major parties fighting it out for the remaining 65% of the vote. With the Conservatives needing c.40% for a majority, Labour would need to collapse to 25% to be certain of a majority … the evidence of 1983 and 2010 would suggest their core vote is too strong for that. Thus even under FPTP we would seem to be destined to much more regular hung parliaments, interspersed with Labour governments because of the concentration of their vote which can give a majority on 35%.
Surely those that would like to retain FPTP need to realise that our politics have already become more pluralistic and we are unlikely to return to simple two party politics? So we need a new electoral system fit for purpose .
What i honestly believe will happen is this.
The Libs will agree to do a non-formal coalition with the tories.
On the BBC today is was stated that Clegg really dosn’t like Brown one iota.
Clegg wants brown out.
DC will be PM,the Libs and tories will do a deal,they will support the tories for 18 months-24 months on measures to deal with the economy,and other measures that they agree on.
In this minority tory Governemnt ken Clarke will be COE to stabilize and reasure the markets.
The tories will sort out the finances of the nation,then go to the county at a time of their choosing.
I have got the perfect solution for electorial reform.
Rock Paper Scissors. It is simple and fair and the Monster Raving Loonies will love it :)
The LD leadership would do a deal in a heartbeat. The message by Laws today that the LD’s wont put party advantage above national interest hints as much. They wont, however, get away with flanneling the rank and file of their party with promises about meaningful talks about electoral reform or even trialing PR in council elections or electing the Lords on a PR basis. It just wont be accepted and would split them assunder.
I’d expect the LD’s to back out of this one, and any deal with Labour, to fight another day. There’ll be just too much opposition to it.
Xiby
“I fail to understand the ‘elected Prime Minister’ arguement”
…haven’t said so before, but have enjoyed reading your sensible comments over the last few weeks
The more I think about it the more comfortable I am (as a left-of-Labour-ie) with a Con-Lib coalition. The Cons can never force through a policy so unpopular that Lib+Lab would oppose it – cause they don’t have the votes to do so.
Again – had we had PR, coalitions like this would be the norm, and we would often have a similar scenario where the governing party could not do whatever it pleases (say – abolish tax for millions on the 3000 richest people in the country) if a united opposition is against it. In general, this would mean much more policy done in the national interest – with backing of more than 50% of the people.
@Billy Bob/ Xiby
I agree, keep it up XIby :)
@John Fletcher
“What price there is a minority govt then the orange bookers cross the floor and take the tory whip with a promise to be able to stand in their seats as a Tory at the next election which will be in a few months.”
I doubt that the orange bookers would cross the floor. If they wanted to be Conservatives then they would have had a much easier time and chance of being in Government if they’d just joined the Conservatives in the first place. Instead they choose to be Lib Dems with the probability that they would be forever in opposition.
Labour needs very skilled leadership after GB resigns following the formation of a Con/Lib govt. Who could do it?
I reckon the chance of power may be to tempting to turn down for the Libs.
The tories will chew them up and spit them out though,the tories can split the Libs in two if they play things right,at the time of their choosing.
The tories may dangle PR,sometime in the future(yawn),as soon as the libs have out lived their usefulness,the tories for electoral gain will make them tear themselves apart,and thats politcs.
The libs are not really a party,they are not united in anything really,if you scratch the surface the Libs are split on most issues.
The key 2 words: “National Interest”
yes there has to be a written agreement that’s the advice.
The Lib Dems did increase their share of the vote. one suspects their vote was heavily squeezed on polling day.
They did lose overall number of seats.
But the lib Dems will continue to have an equal footing that arrived with the first PM election debate.
Everything about a Con/Lib deal, although definately the best option for the Country now, says ‘snap election’ when the time is right, to me.
rich
I wonder what Labour voters who voted tactically for Libs feel now the LIbs are joining up with the Tories? Cheated?
Labour and the Llb-dems have some cheek.
Peter Hain’Labour and the Lib-dems agree on electoral reform,the British people are grow-ups,they can handle a referendum,they are not idiots’.
Not the Lisbon one though Peter!
As I said before, I think that Brown should do a Major and resign the party leadership and stand again. If he wins, people won’t be able to say that he is not un-elected before. I think would make a good Leader of the Oposition.
@ Chris Lane -
“Labour needs very skilled leadership after GB resigns following the formation of a Con/Lib govt. Who could do it?”
_________________________________
Maybe too early for him, but the Labour Minister that impressed me before and during the campaign is Liam Byrne. He’s very bright and has a foot in both Blairite and Brownite camps…if those camps actually still exist now!
No doubt they’ll go with D. Miliband.
What is forgotten about this PR debate,is that huge numbers of labour MP’s are also anti PR.
The more this fiasco drags on,the argument for PR dies on the vine.
Do we really want to vote in a GE,then get neither the manifesto we voted on,or maybe not the PM we expected.
before loons on here cry’they do it in the EU’
One, i don’t care what they do in the EU & 2 they don’t have the UK & its constitutional make-up and various countries that make up the UK.
@Dave on Liam Byrne.
Agreed about him over Miliband or Balls
@Matt – The word “swing” has been used for decades to describe “the percentage of all voters who would need to switch/did switch their vote from party A to party B”.
That’s my point exactly, my example illustrates this didn’t happen but according to this ‘swing’ it did!!! Your pomposity may seem clever (to you) but didn’t answer the point.
@Pam F
cheated is the word… weeks ago i said i quote “cosy up to yellows at our peril” :)
@ DAVE K & CHRIS LANE
Are you members of the Labour Party?
@Amber Star -
No, I’m a socialist.
:)
Pamf
Have a suspicion that more Labs voted tactically Lib than the other way around (any evidence?), dispite GB’s last minute advice when he contradicted other Labour MPs who were encouraging TV.
How many Cons voted Lib TV? I think someone pointed out on this site a while ago that the Libs are both more right wing than the Tories and more left wing than Labour.
Re Liam Bryne
He should go to the House of Lords. That way, we can call him Lord Boldermort. :)
@DT 2010
In what way are the LD’s not really a party ?
You really think that politcal parties other than LD are really united on everything if you think possible LD divisions are serious wait until you see the Tory civil war thats looming over this GE result.Then you’ll know what division really is all about.