Ipsos MORI’s final call poll is now out, and has topline figures of CON 36%(nc), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 27%(+4). Very much in line with the other companies, all but two of whom have the parties within 1 point of CON 36%, LAB 28%, LDEM 27%.

Last night MORI also rang back 116 people interviewed on Tuesday to check for any last minute swing – and found no significant difference. That’s it until the exit poll!


19 Responses to “Final poll of the campaign”

  1. “The Ipsos MORI survey puts the Conservatives at 36%, Labour at 29% and the Liberal Democrats at 27%.

    According to Sky News’ ready reckoner that would give the Tories the most seats – 279 – but no overall majority.”

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  2. Good turnout this morning in Portsmouth this morning. Seems to be a very high turn-out amongst young people.

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  3. Edinburgh polling stations experiencing higher than usual levels of voting. This election will reach or exceed the high turnout predicted.

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  4. Mildly busy in Manchester, I’ll be telling in Central soon so be interesting to see how things going overall…

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  5. [Copied and pasted from previous thread, having posted it just as this thread went up - apologies if that's bad web manners].

    At the risk of going over old ground, should Cameron find himself short of a majority but ahead overall, what is the protocol and process for who gets first stab at forming a government?

    And, as a lurker to this site, can I echo the comments in praise of it and its prime movers. So many “politics” forums (fora?) are full of bile and filth. This one, by and large, and despite its partisan voices, has retained its intelligence, civility and good-nature.

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  6. Blockhead –

    I’ve got a post explaining the mechanics of it here.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2645

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  7. @Blockhead

    “At the risk of going over old ground, should Cameron find himself short of a majority but ahead overall, what is the protocol and process for who gets first stab at forming a government?”

    In the scenario you describe?

    Its Brown/ Labour first: pure, clear and simple…..

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  8. Many thanks Mr Wells for the site and your patience in these last few weeks.

    I hope that you have booked yourself a nice holiday where every whim can be attended to over the next fortnight or so… ;-).

    Who knows…you may have to do it again in October….!

    Yeghes da….

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  9. Thanks for the replies and, Anthony, for the link to that explanation.

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  10. Interesting that the polls have all converged around similar numbers in the last few days of the campaign after quite a bit of movement in the middle.

    Am I the only one that thinks they are going to be broadly proved correct in terms of share of the vote?

    Cons on around 36%, Labour on around 28% and Lib Dems on around 27%.

    Even there though a difference of 1% in any of the parties vote could make a drastic difference to the outcome.

    Also what the share of the vote doesn’t tell us is what the swing will be in the marginals – will it be larger than the national swing by around 2% or something less?

    Will there be a smaller regional swing in some areas to save more Labour MP’s and larger regional swings in other areas that will oust them?

    Even if the exit poll confirms the share of the vote from the opinion poll I am not sure it will give us an indication of all of these factors – especially in seats where the result may be very close.

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  11. Gary

    If you read Anthony’s bit on exit polls you will see that the pollsters forcast the number of seats not percentage share.

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  12. It’s fanciful and idle speculation but I can’t help wondering if the fact Nigel Farage’s plane crash is the main – and only political – news story today could give a publicity boost to the one party surmised to draw people away from the Conservative core……

    Even a personal sympathy boost in his own contest, if it saw him ousting John Bercow could have an interesting effect, as the selection of a different Tory speaker would be one less vote to rely on in a hung parliament….

    :P

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  13. I doubt the crash will be enough for him to topple Bercow, else we’re going to see a lot of planes crashing next election!

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  14. They couldn’t find the key for my village polling station this morning, so the first votes were cast in a car. The fact that I took the key to bed with me, and that, unusually, I didn’t wake up until 6.55 am, was not an attempt by me to reduce William Hague’s majority.

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  15. Gattino – it was a mid-air collision with a pig….

    Or a Dutchman (my uncle)

    I personally believe the LibDem wobblers are going to have a bigger effect than the UKIP wobblers on the results. 35 30 25 is not beyond possibility (and I’m still not sure which is the 30 and which the 25, owing to my sense there’s a lot of shyness among those who say they might change their mind)

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  16. All very quiet in south bucks. I was the only one there. Perhaps I missed the rush(?)

    Decided to vote this time after abstaining last time.

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  17. Gosh, that’s my prediction! Hope they are right!

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  18. Still no more than statistical differences from last night: C 35.5, LD/Lab more or less tied.

    Expect to see some quite wide variations though across the country, and for the first time in years, the variations will be the most important thing. It could be decided by a few 10s of thousands of votes being in the right place or wrong place.

    looking forward to 10.02pm!

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  19. Well hereabouts people are flocking East European-style to vote. No queueing but certainly much more activity than in previous elections.

    If this is reflected in seats where local elections are taking place, it bodes well for a democratic choice.

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