Final Polls

First out of the stalls is Opinium for the Express – CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 26%(-1). Others are presumably around 12. I will update as the rest of the final polls come in tonight.

UPDATE: Secondly we have TNS BMRB – CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

UPDATE2: Populus’s final call is CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 27%(-1)

UPDATE3: Plenty of polls coming in now, Angus Reid for Political Betting have figures of CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 29%(nc). Labour remain in a poor third there, and unsurprisingly it looks as though Angus Reid will be showing the lowest level of support for them.

YouGov’s final poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 28%(+4). So a reverse of that drop in Lib Dem support yesterday, which in hindsight looks like sample error. These figures take YouGov back to what they were showing on Monday (and within a point or so, for the best part of a week). YouGov also did a final poll of Lab-Con marginal seats, showing a 7 point swing to the Tories. More on that later once we get all the final polls and I can crunch the figures properly.

UPDATE4: Harris in the Daily Mail seem to have figures of CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 27%(-1) (I’ve also seen 35/29/29 quoted, but 35/29/27 is what the BBC are now saying). They really have come into line with the established pollsters. ICM and ComRes still to come, when Martin Boon stops teasing people on twitter ;)

UPDATE5: ICM’s poll has finally turned up (treat them mean and keep them keen!). Topline figures there are CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 26%(-2). Conservatives back up three points after a drop in ICM’s previous poll. ComRes’s poll for ITV meanwhile has topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+2). Apart from tomorrow’s MORI poll in the Stanard, I think that’s it, there’s your polls. Proper voting starts at 7am. I’ll have a proper look at the eve-of-election polls to dig out any interesting nuggets later, and then get myself off the fence and make a prediction (all will be posted on the mirror site at ukpollingreport.wordpress.com too – there have been 350,000 visits to the site so far today, so do try and help keep it online!).

NB – Comments are closed to stop traffic crashing the site. Comments are open over at the backup site http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com instead.


142 Responses to “Final Polls”

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  1. @cardicam: My reply to you got hit with moderation for some reason, but in short, yes, I broadly agree with you about the Tory support thing, even though I’m no fan of PR myself.

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  2. @ Derek

    Good on you…I’ll be posting doors and chivvying the supporters tomorrow in Romsey….

    An old Chinese Curse comes to mind….”may you live in interesting times”.!!

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  3. TNS-BRMB have somehow given seat predictions that don’t match up to their percentage UNS. It says that, if you put these figures into a uniform national swing calculator, Labour would have more seats (263) than the Tories (260). But TNS-BRMB has its own seat prediction model. It says that, using this model, these figures would give the
    Tories 292 seats,
    Labour 204 seats
    Lib Dems 114 seats.

    I find the Ladbrokes predictions on the Times website more substantiated though. Giving seat predictions of
    Cons 320
    Lab 213
    LD 82

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  4. @JackJones
    “Whatever happens after Thursday will happen, and we just have to lump it.”

    Like MPs’ expenses?

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  5. Fairness, yes certainly needed. When 1 party has all the money and most of the media in its back pocket nearly anything is better than the current system. When we take the ballot paper in our hands tomorrow it should make us all political rich but most of us are made beggars by this system. Politics is meant to serve us – not the other way round. We decide who should represent us and form a government that should serve us – not the other way round. If we vote for what we want and what we believe in then it is just tough on the politicians if they don’t get the cosy solution they want. Bullying people into voting for the status quo just because it makes their lives easy is not a way to run a democracy its a way to ruin a democracy….. polemic over

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  6. Derek and Barry
    Without PR on the table there isn’t much point in *having* post election discussions, even with an ability given by voters to negotiate.

    Put another way, how is the imposition of an extra half % in NI from next April an issue for now?

    Very bogus statements are being made by all parties on this subject..

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  7. YouGov rumour;

    Con 35
    Lab 28
    LD 28

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  8. @ DAVE P
    I find the Ladbrokes predictions on the Times website more substantiated though. Giving seat predictions of
    Cons 320
    Lab 213
    LD 82

    Even if you enter 0% for Conservatives, TIMES would say 320 seats … it’s the Times … :-)

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  9. Do we no longer have consensus on the frontrunner losing 2% on the day then? Surely the Tories have to be polling on 38 and above to win a majority on the day.

    I predict no more than 5% from 1st to 3rd.

    my money’s on labour to get most seats.

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  10. Do the Bookies use Polling Companies?

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  11. Julian Gilbert – juat think Tommy Smith’s header mate – one last unbelievable effort, one last prize, a lasting legacy (PR) and a happy retirement not too far away…

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  12. Eoin only 24 hours and you will be put out off your misery.
    Cons 38
    Libs 26
    Lab 25

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  13. @JOHN
    Do the Bookies use Polling Companies?
    _____________

    Yes, they use them significantly. But they also use local data and other sources (unknown to me)

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  14. Dave P:

    I think those other sources include seaweed :)

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  15. “Do we no longer have consensus on the frontrunner losing 2% on the day then? Surely the Tories have to be polling on 38 and above to win a majority on the day.”

    Not necessarily – depends on the marginals. Only around 150 seats or so will ultimately influence and determine the result of this GE. Just as Labour could get a majority on 34/35%, the Tories could get a majority if they hit 36/37% and do very well in the marginal seats. Of course, a hung parliament is still the most likely scenario, as polls have repeatedly been showing.

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  16. CB;

    If you say so, but I try to be fairly balanced, its the best way to look at stuff. Also, if the result is bad for one party, you need to look at yourself to see what went wrong, not somehow blame the other party.

    For fun only, and not partisan (really), I’ll post some funny stuff that might help to show Labour big Govt.

    Labour have introduced 4000 new criminal offences since coming to office. That’s nearly one per day since 1997. Some of my favs are here.

    – illegal to sell a grey squirrel
    – illegal to impersonate a lollipop lady
    – illegale to import a Polish potato

    and the best surely;

    – illegal to cause a nuclear explosion (really, I would never have guessed)

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  17. CB – David Beckam??? A Tory?? Quote your source sir!!

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  18. @JOHN TT “…just think Tommy Smith’s header mate – one last unbelievable effort, one last prize, a lasting legacy (PR) and a happy retirement not too far away…”
    Mmm. In your analogy, are the Tories Manchester Utd or Borussia Mönchengladbach?

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  19. What’s with the partisan discussion? It says “UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of elections and polls.” ;-)

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  20. Rumour from reliable souce

    ICM Tories + 3%

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  21. Yougov

    35/28/28

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  22. @RICHARD O

    You stole that from NC’s speech today!

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  23. There is a YOu gov rumour being banded about… 35,28,28 any truth in this?

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  24. @Mike

    If the ICM rumour is correct reds will be cock-a-hoop!

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  25. @Richard O

    Surely you mean to say that under the tories, terrorists could nuke our cities dressed as lollypop laides!

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  26. @Howard: The Tories would have to compromise on economic decisions (tax, cuts) to retain LibDem support. A Tory macho minority Government hell-bent on their economic manifesto would lead to a Lab/LibDem coalition within months. The SNP have learned to compromise in Scotland, so why couldn’t the Tories?

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  27. “@ DAVE P
    I find the Ladbrokes predictions on the Times website more substantiated though. Giving seat predictions of
    Cons 320
    Lab 213
    LD 82″

    Ahem- have a look at LFF blog:

    “A culture of fear has gripped News International’s newsrooms as the prospect of a hung parliament suggests that their endorsement of the Conservatives has not “had the impact that they wanted”, according to a senior source. Insiders are concerned that after The Sun’s early endorsement of David Cameron failed to guarante victory, **The Times’ election coverage has been politically motivated**.”

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  28. Never believe rumours until they are confirmed. That’s my advice. Having said that, I still enjoy listening to them (good or bad).

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  29. @ Sue

    Ok I’ll withdraw Becks, but not Posh!!!

    @ Richard O

    So that off duty lolipop lady who makes the nice gnocchi wasn’t a legitimate pest control officer. Ive been done again!

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  30. Anthony,

    Are the “final” polls for next time the ones actually published prior to the opening of polling or should we count any whose “toplines” have been published but the details have not? And more to the point, why? If full details are not published then breakdowns are unfairly withheld.

    If the former, then the Scotsman poll on the previous thread and the PH “regional” poll are both post-final since details are NOT available on the YouGov website. Or are YouGov maintaining the site overnight?

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  31. If that YG rumour is confirmed NC will be breathing a sigh of relief (yesterday’s poll must have caused some consternation in camp Lib)

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  32. I’ve always tended to read the Times above all papers, and found their coverage early on quite palatable; possibly even balanced. But recently their bias has been far too obvious. Enough to chase me away at any rate.

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  33. GREM3
    @RICHARD O

    You stole that from NC’s speech today!
    *****************************
    all, Grem is right, I stole from Nick Clegg today! lol
    It made me laugh though.

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  34. “There is a YOu gov rumour being banded about… 35,28,28 any truth in this?”

    Given the track record of rumours…I suspect not.

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  35. Derek
    LD’s would need a lot more bargaining power than they are likely to get on present showing. Take the average of ICM and YG and then apply your favourite seat calculator – and then pray!

    No get behind those knock up phones tomorrow and leave the praying to GB – he’s good at that bless him ;-)

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  36. Populus:

    CON 37
    LAB 28
    LD 27

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  37. Times Populus poll: Con 37 Lab 28 Lib Dem 27

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  38. comres 37-28-27

    just on C4news

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  39. So both Lab and the Tories +1 on the last populus.

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  40. SORRY- that should be populous

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  41. Looking like 1983 with all these rumours…

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  42. What?? they used Twitter in 1983?? :-)

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