Final Polls

First out of the stalls is Opinium for the Express – CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 26%(-1). Others are presumably around 12. I will update as the rest of the final polls come in tonight.

UPDATE: Secondly we have TNS BMRB – CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

UPDATE2: Populus’s final call is CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 27%(-1)

UPDATE3: Plenty of polls coming in now, Angus Reid for Political Betting have figures of CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 29%(nc). Labour remain in a poor third there, and unsurprisingly it looks as though Angus Reid will be showing the lowest level of support for them.

YouGov’s final poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 28%(+4). So a reverse of that drop in Lib Dem support yesterday, which in hindsight looks like sample error. These figures take YouGov back to what they were showing on Monday (and within a point or so, for the best part of a week). YouGov also did a final poll of Lab-Con marginal seats, showing a 7 point swing to the Tories. More on that later once we get all the final polls and I can crunch the figures properly.

UPDATE4: Harris in the Daily Mail seem to have figures of CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 27%(-1) (I’ve also seen 35/29/29 quoted, but 35/29/27 is what the BBC are now saying). They really have come into line with the established pollsters. ICM and ComRes still to come, when Martin Boon stops teasing people on twitter ;)

UPDATE5: ICM’s poll has finally turned up (treat them mean and keep them keen!). Topline figures there are CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 26%(-2). Conservatives back up three points after a drop in ICM’s previous poll. ComRes’s poll for ITV meanwhile has topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+2). Apart from tomorrow’s MORI poll in the Stanard, I think that’s it, there’s your polls. Proper voting starts at 7am. I’ll have a proper look at the eve-of-election polls to dig out any interesting nuggets later, and then get myself off the fence and make a prediction (all will be posted on the mirror site at ukpollingreport.wordpress.com too – there have been 350,000 visits to the site so far today, so do try and help keep it online!).

NB – Comments are closed to stop traffic crashing the site. Comments are open over at the backup site http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com instead.


142 Responses to “Final Polls”

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  1. keep spinning Eoin…

    from yesterday….

    “one thing we know for sure Lib dems well behind in 3rd place…”

  2. Parties used to get elected with over 50% of the vote. It then went down to 40% and now I think that 35% is the norm. A victory is a victory.

  3. @ Andrew – I agree, but Dave P. was decrying only the possibility of the Tories achieving this, not of the thing itself. But perhaps he’ll come back and blast the current Labour government for it as well ;-)

  4. @Dave P

    I don’t think it is acceptable. You assume too much.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The wording of your original post was that it was unacceptable for the Tories to Rule 1/3 vote.

    Perhaps you should have made it clear that in your opinion it was unacceptable for ANY party to rule wih 1/3 votes.

    Judging from the number of posts commeting on your original statement, I am clearly not alone in this opinion.

  5. Does anyone know how close to the final result the BBC exit poll was?

  6. TNS-BRMB are usually 1% point favourable to red….

    so blues mentally add 1% on to this if you want to get a sense of perspective…

    Thus this may suggest a 7% lead for blue (using the 660 poll average)

    Of course TNS’s week long methodology causes problems but you know that already…

    It would not pick up on recent averaging

    On the camapign it shows (post first debate)

    a
    1% dip for yellow
    1% dip for red
    1% dip for blue

    Hmm…… what are others?

  7. High turnout looking likely – over 70% possibly

  8. @Jack Jackson,

    Your not reading the site rules. All you are posting is relentless anti-tory rhetoric, time & again. There are more appropriate sites for that sort of stuff.

  9. @Richard O,

    “Is the YouGov London poll good or bad for anybody? I don’t know how to read the London polls.”

    It suggests that the Tories will probably be short of a majority, but will also probably be the largest party. Depends on the London marginals though really. Not a bad poll for the Reds or Blues, all things considered.

  10. “There is Cilla Black who’s Tory…so she had to leave.”
    And Jimmy Tarbuck was also a BIG fan of Thatcher.

  11. Kyle Downing

    “Parties used to get elected with over 50% of the vote. It then went down to 40% and now I think that 35% is the norm. A victory is a victory”

    If a bit of a hollow one this time round.

  12. I’m surprised that I haven’t seen this posted on here before. I check this most days and it’s always being updated and I think it’s the most accurate way of predicting how many seats will be taken by each of the parties.

    h t t p ://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/Predictions

  13. WXDavid

    you’re obnoxious

  14. YouGov poll of Londoners
    w ww.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/politics/article-23830837-result-is-on-a-knife-edge-tories-and-labour-set-to-win-271-seats-each.do

  15. Does anybody know why when I view this site from a mobile phone it displays as if I am using a PC, and when I view this site from a PC it displays like I am using a mobile phone?

  16. Kop fans!!!

    Love it! Same soccer team as me :-) As long as the analogy applies to my party too I’m happy.

    It would be fabulous irony for Labour to win the most seats on a lot fewer votes than the Tories. The media would be full of leading Conservatives all absolutely gobsmacked! A politican with absolutely nothing to say in his defence!! Their arguments would have reached their logical conclusion – ie it doesn’t make any sense and the voting system IS insane after all. I’ve always wanted to know when your own s**t gets blown back in your face :-) Oh please oh please!!!!

  17. You gov London:

    Change since 2005, Tory + 4, Lab -8, LD +5 (based on the London figures for 2005 on the YouGov regional breaks)

    Yougov regional breaks have all had the Lib Dems up by 1 or 2% less in London than nationwide, so this makes me fairly hopeful for youGov later on. Still on for lib Dem 28% at the moment….

    Meanwhile those swings do not look too good for labour to me. The big question is whether the Tories and Lib Dems are doing even better in their respective target seats in London

  18. I think there is a subtle but important difference between the Tories coming to power on 35% of the vote and Labour winning with 36% in 2005.
    And that is a majority of people in 2005 voted for the centre left. labour and Liberals have a lot in common and therefore the Labour government represented the values of the majority.
    If the tories come to power on 35% they would only represent a minority of people on the right.

  19. @Matt,

    cheers. was happy with Opinion as well. I know it tends to be a bit pro-Tory, but the last one was poor, so at least its back to normal.

    Sky have just said there will be at least 6 polls tonight.

  20. @Richard O and Eoin,

    Just ignore the trolls. Expect a lot more of them as we get closer to the GE results.

  21. @KyleDowning
    “A victory is a victory.”

    Not any more it ain’t. This time round the people will not accept it.

  22. That YouGov London poll suggests Labour are going to lose quiet a number of seats in London…

  23. So if i have this right – Lab —> LD swing is 6.5%
    Lab —-> Cons swing is 6%
    Cons —- LD swing is ???

  24. Richard O

    London 9 from Lab to C
    2 from Lab to LD
    No LD Losses NO Con losses

  25. @Richard O,

    A 6% lead in London is pretty decent IMO. It certainly suggests that they will pick up a lot of Labour London seats at this GE. As always, it depends on whether they get a marginal boost though – and by how much.

  26. Sorry, my first over-strained leap there. YouGov WAS the London poll. I take my whoop back

  27. Found it myself, BBC/ITV predicted:

    37% (actual 36.1%) for Labour
    33% (actual 33.2%) for the Conservatives
    22% (actual 22.6%) for the Liberal Democrats

  28. @MAtt,

    Thanks for the reminder…

    On the basis of Opinium it appears a 5% gap may emerge from ICM/YG… let’s wait and see..

  29. Simon M – I think you may find PR – and, bluntly, fairness going up people’s list of concerns if the seats outcome is as crazy as it might be.

    I’d not be at all surprised if Conservative voters (if not leaders) suddenly become rather easier prey for pro-PR campaigners in a referendum if Cameron comes 1st in votes but 2nd in seats and Labour hangs on with LD support.

    Anyhow its not as if the don’t knows on this issue are nearly as big as they would have been 20 or 30 years ago. The argument is being understood and won.

  30. Why are some posters predicting a Tory vote of 37-38% tomorrow when the vast majroty of the polls are coming in at around 35%??????

  31. Even as a LibDem member, I don’t think PR is the top priority at the moment. It has to be put on the back burner while the economy is sorted out.

  32. @sue,

    “Sorry, my first over-strained leap there. YouGov WAS the London poll. I take my whoop back”

    It’s understandable given how much is at stake. I would avoid drawing too many conclusions from tonight’s polls, though – whether they go in the blue’s or red’s direction. I think this GE really will go down to how individual seats go on the day.

  33. @CardiCam
    “I’d not be at all surprised if Conservative voters (if not leaders) suddenly become rather easier prey for pro-PR campaigners”

    You will find some converts already on this site.

  34. Quick one from me, I’ve only just noticed this. The UKPR list of target seats is completely different from the BBC’s. Does BBC use Thrasher & Rawlings and UKPR use something else? This has made a mess of my spreadsheets, I hadn’t realised the two were different

  35. “On the basis of Opinium it appears a 5% gap may emerge from ICM/YG… let’s wait and see..”

    I think you’re right, Eoin. It’s going to be very close, that’ss for sure.

  36. james

    Cons-LD is 0.5%. In other words no swing at all. LD/Tory marginals in Londaon are unlikely to change hands on this poll – except that local campaigning CAN make a few % difference IMO

    The YouGov regional breaks have shown the Tories doing better in London than nationally by 4% however (although I can’t find the most recent set any more!), so the Conto LD swing elsewhere may be a bit bigger

  37. To think, I have the anxiety of Spurs playing Man City for fourth spot tonight, and then the GE result tomorrow night. I’m not sure I’ll have any nails left on Friday!!

  38. @cardicam: “I’d not be at all surprised if Conservative voters (if not leaders) suddenly become rather easier prey for pro-PR campaigners in a referendum if Cameron comes 1st in votes but 2nd in seats and Labour hangs on with LD support. ”

    I’m no fan of PR myself, but I agree with you on that – if FPTP gives ‘victory’ to a party that lost the popular vote by some margin (as opposed to 1974’s scrape), then I think it would be the death of the system.

    As for the argument being understood and won, I’m not so sure about that – I think it was a YG poll the other day that gave FPTP a lead (although with a large number of don’t knows). But if tomorrow’s election does indeed produce a ‘perverse’ result, then it could be that the time for PR has come.

  39. BBC’s Nick Robinson is in Bristol – same as CamCon.

    Political editor generally follows ‘winning’ party on last day.

    Means diddly squat of course!

  40. Brown looks quite chipper in Carlisle
    Cameron looks knackered on a train
    Clegg looks remarkably unaffected and suspiciously tanned.

  41. I must be a very mad person because I don’t tend to care about the winning percentages. I find that it is some claptrap from the Inependent wanting some weird new land of bread and honey.
    A new ground has opened up in Politics and it is bound to gobble up some soft Labour and Tory support.
    The Whigs have increased their representation in THREE elections running. It seems that they will do so again.
    If people really care about parties getting 1/3rd of the vote and winning the election, then they must turn out tomorow. Simple.

  42. There are going to be a lot of disappointed people whatever the result.
    But I reckon the real casualties of this election will be the pollsters and pundits. Acres of print have been expended on hung parliaments.

    I confidently predict now that one of the parties will have a clear majority….

  43. @RosieP: I don’t think there’s much doubt about the Tories winning the popular vote.

  44. apologies Richard O and any one else for over-stepping the mark. Unintended. Thank you for reminding me.

    I am equally caustic of all political parties these days, I will keep the abrasiveness out of my analysis in future.

    Very sorry.

  45. WMA 35:28:27. The L:LD gain seems to have gone into reverse a bit, though it is still Stat Sig.
    The 14-day trend of increasing the CLead remains but no sign of a 7-day trend.
    Let’s see what the others bring.
    I stick by my CLead of 10-15pts but it certainly looks as though it will be at the low end.

  46. Robert Mugabe backs DC – Telegraph
    (from #imnotvotingconservative – no. 1 trending twitter)

  47. Tonight we are expecting

    ICM (last poll had gap 5%)
    YG (last poll had gap 5%)
    ComR (Last poll had gap 7%)
    Populus (last poll had the gap 8%)
    Angus (last poll had gap HUGE :) )

    Mori report tomorrow

    The most important thing is these polls is the overall trend, not the %.

    Do they show a tightening lead or do they show Tories extending- that is crucial…

    If there are 4% gaps tonight it will be a nailbiting finish.

  48. “Parties used to get elected with over 50% of the vote. It then went down to 40% and now I think that 35% is the norm. A victory is a victory”

    Actually since the end of the 19th century very few governments have ever achieved 50% of the votes cast. Absolute majorities in both seats and votes are almost unprecedented these days – for instance Gordon Brown/Tony Blair won a large majority of seats in the last GE with just 35.5% of all the votes cast. Hardly a mandate for what they did.

    So anyone who believes the Tories should not be allowed to govern if they only get 35-36% of the votes tomorrow will obviously also accept that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown never had true authority for the things they did.

  49. @Derek Pierson

    Just got back from a day’s campaigning for the Lib Dems. I would agree, most party colleagues would like to see the financial mess sorted without panic reaction. After that most mention fairer taxes and the end of massive bonuses. PR is a long-held aspiration but is not necessarily the only thing to consider in any post-election discussions.

  50. “This time round the people will not accept it.”
    And what exactly are “the people” going to do about it? Same as they ever can – absolutely nothing.

    Whatever happens after Thursday will happen, and we just have to lump it.

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