Final Polls

First out of the stalls is Opinium for the Express – CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 26%(-1). Others are presumably around 12. I will update as the rest of the final polls come in tonight.

UPDATE: Secondly we have TNS BMRB – CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

UPDATE2: Populus’s final call is CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 27%(-1)

UPDATE3: Plenty of polls coming in now, Angus Reid for Political Betting have figures of CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 29%(nc). Labour remain in a poor third there, and unsurprisingly it looks as though Angus Reid will be showing the lowest level of support for them.

YouGov’s final poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 28%(+4). So a reverse of that drop in Lib Dem support yesterday, which in hindsight looks like sample error. These figures take YouGov back to what they were showing on Monday (and within a point or so, for the best part of a week). YouGov also did a final poll of Lab-Con marginal seats, showing a 7 point swing to the Tories. More on that later once we get all the final polls and I can crunch the figures properly.

UPDATE4: Harris in the Daily Mail seem to have figures of CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 27%(-1) (I’ve also seen 35/29/29 quoted, but 35/29/27 is what the BBC are now saying). They really have come into line with the established pollsters. ICM and ComRes still to come, when Martin Boon stops teasing people on twitter ;)

UPDATE5: ICM’s poll has finally turned up (treat them mean and keep them keen!). Topline figures there are CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 26%(-2). Conservatives back up three points after a drop in ICM’s previous poll. ComRes’s poll for ITV meanwhile has topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+2). Apart from tomorrow’s MORI poll in the Stanard, I think that’s it, there’s your polls. Proper voting starts at 7am. I’ll have a proper look at the eve-of-election polls to dig out any interesting nuggets later, and then get myself off the fence and make a prediction (all will be posted on the mirror site at ukpollingreport.wordpress.com too – there have been 350,000 visits to the site so far today, so do try and help keep it online!).

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142 Responses to “Final Polls”

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  1. Omenous poll…8 point Tory lead..yuk. Hope YouGov is better than that.

  2. Very close to UKPR average of polls.

  3. Woo Hooo! Here we go!

  4. Dont know about ominous. Monotonous more like. UNS: Tories 42 seats short of a majority.

  5. Its going to be a long night with lots of surprises if this is the number 12% for other Parties – that’s a big number

  6. Mike – an 8 from Opinium is like a 5 from YouGov!!

  7. I wouldn’t worry about this – the one thing I feel certain about is that a fair proportion of the polls are going to be inaccurate. While the idea that 40% of the population are undecided seems surprising to me, it is clear that majorities of the country hate Labour and the Tories. How that translates tomorrow is anyone’s guess.

  8. YouGov London VI for Evening Standard:

    CON: 36%
    LAB: 31%
    LD: 27%

  9. No surprises there, I thought Opinium’s last poll looked a little off, seeing as they’re normally more favourable to the Conservatives.

  10. Woooohoooo, come on the YouGov!!! Labour sprinting for the finish line

  11. Well that one equates to C283 L258 LD80

  12. Hearing TNS-BMRB:

    TNS Con 33, Lab 27, LD 29.

  13. Opinium isn’t the best of the pollsters, but it should give us a taste of what to expect. Not a lot of change…

  14. Rosie – What does that make YouGov?

  15. Hope so Sue. I would settle with Con getting 35%. Makes it difficult for them to win a maj with that share of the vote.. It would make me smile if Lab managed to win the most seats even though I’m no Brownite…as it would be one in the eye for the delightful press/ITN/Sky coverage of this election.

  16. @ Sue

    Lab nc in one poll and down 1 point in the other. Is that what you call a sprint? :S

  17. So far nothing spectacular – all MOE. In particular no dramatic fall in the LD vote – so it will be interesting to see if the YG keeps the LD figure low or sees it nudge up to 26%.

  18. @ Sue M – it was the Opinium poll in seats

  19. The Tories will have worked hard in the marginals, if they have done enough to win most of them and are able to form a government with just a third of the votes I think there will be an outrage.

  20. OK, you can stop your speculation. You can forget the so-called 8 expert pollsters, Amber’s crystal ball or what looks like EOIN’s uncannily accurate predictions. I have much more convincing and concrete proof of what’s going to happen at the GE.
    For my sins, I’m a Liverpool FC and a Labour supporter. Liverpool have had a disastrous campaign this year, lost everything and as a result are about to lose their previously acclaimed leader and even go into a period of decline which could be lengthy. It is absolutely impossible that this could happen a second time to me in one year. I have never been that unlucky in my life.
    This is absolutely incontrovertible proof that Labour are going to do OK in the GE. Done deal.
    BTW, in case you’re wondering, ‘doing ok’ IS official psephological terminology.

  21. @Sue,

    you cheeky one. sprinting to the line indeed.

    mind that sniper in the stand. :-)

    rich

    ps: hows the 3 Brighton seats shaping up?

  22. @ Dave P – that’s FPTP system ! If Lab can do coalition with LD on c 27% of pop vote then Tory will be just as ‘outraged’ but that’s it!

  23. @ Julian Gilbert

    “For my sins, I’m a Liverpool FC and a Labour supporter. Liverpool have had a disastrous campaign this year, lost everything and as a result are about to lose their previously acclaimed leader and even go into a period of decline which could be lengthy. It is absolutely impossible that this could happen a second time to me in one year. I have never been that unlucky in my life.
    This is absolutely incontrovertible proof that Labour are going to do OK in the GE. Done deal.
    BTW, in case you’re wondering, ‘doing ok’ IS official psephological terminology.”

    _________________________________

    I’m an Evertonian and Labour supporter…I’m on a roll with your nightmare season,,,so where the hell does that leave us?

    :)

  24. Ralph – YouGov have Lab on 31 – bit of momentum from Sunday.

  25. @ Dave P

    “The Tories will have worked hard in the marginals, if they have done enough to win most of them and are able to form a government with just a third of the votes I think there will be an outrage.”

    But this is what Labour did last time, isn’t it? I don’t remember the outrage

  26. @DaveP

    If the conservatives only poll 35% then there would have to be an bigger marginals premium than the polling so far has shown for them to get a bare majority.

    The main reason is that at 35%, even with the LDs at 26% that is still a Con->LD swing, so they miss out on net gains from the LDs.

  27. Heh Julian

    You should try being a Sheffield United fan…. strong in the 1890’s and downhill ever since. Shafted by the “big clubs” over Tevezgate – sound familiar?

    Andrew

  28. Just for once, could we not have people claiming there’ll be “outrage” if the Tories form govt with 35+ of the vote share? Remember: the current Labour govt got just 35.3% of the vote share in 2005 and you don’t seem too outraged about that.

    So cut it, thanks.

  29. @Dave K
    Let’s just hope your luck holds out and mine changes ;)

  30. @Dave P

    if they have done enough to win most of them and are able to form a government with just a third of the votes I think there will be an outrage.
    ====================================
    Why should it be an outrage for the Tories to rule with 1/3 of the vote but it is perfectly acceptable for Lab to do the same and with a PM who was not even the leader of his party at the GE?

  31. The TNS poll was in field April 29-may 4 – so again, hard to know if there was any late breaking trend.

    Opinium seems like more of a correction from their previous poll which was a bit of an outlier in having the Tories too low and LDs too high.

  32. @Julian/Dave K,

    There is no such thing as an unpartisan political person from Liverpool. My brother’s wife is from Liverpool, and I have never seen such relentless anti-tory rhetoric from her. I will be rubbing it in bigtime if the Tories get in.

    Rich

  33. Rich – Kemptown looking very good – it’s target no. 29. Pav (target 130something lol) too close to call.

    Actually, maybe YouGov is not confirmed? I’ll feel silly if I whooooppped to soon.

  34. If I remember rightly, there was quite an outage just after the last election. If the Tories win with even less votes than Labour did then I would hope there will be an outrage.

    PR can’t come quickly enough…

  35. Cool it Children….being partisan spoils it for the rest of us.

  36. @Dave P,

    ridiculous partisan rubbish from you again.

    For decades on end, parties have often governed and been elected with circa 1/3rd of the vote, it’s nothing new.

    rich

  37. Rich – Please see my post on NOT rubbing it in.

  38. @Sue – source of YG rumour? It’s not a mixup with the London poll is it? (which was a YG poll)

  39. @JOHN FLETCHER

    Why should it be an outrage for the Tories to rule with 1/3 of the vote but it is perfectly acceptable for Lab to do the same and with a PM who was not even the leader of his party at the GE?
    _______________________

    I don’t think it is acceptable. You assume too much.

  40. Nothing too different, nothing too worrying for anyone here. These are what I think of as the “outlier” polls, look more for the change in them than the trend, because they’ve both produced stupid results frequently. Opinium seems to be showing the beginnings of the LD squeeze, while TNS may be too, although it’s more of a correction – and an out ofdate poll?

  41. @Sue,

    “Actually, maybe YouGov is not confirmed? I’ll feel silly if I whooooppped to soon.”

    Where did you hear Labour are on 31% from? I’m interested in knowing any rumours.

  42. Opiniums post first debate average was

    Blue 33%
    Red 26%
    Yellow 28%

    So on their post first debate average it is a
    -2% yellow
    +1% red
    +2% blue

    Now for the complicated bit….

    The 660 polls over 2005-2010 produced a 38-31 gap between red and blue eg… 7%

    Traditionally opinium have shown a 10% gap…

    Thus, Opinium are 3% more favourable to blue than the average polling company

    thus some may choose to read this as showing an average 5% gap.

    Secondly

    At the start of the campaign itself the average polls were 39-30

    Thus during the campaign this may suggest a 4% narrowing…
    ( if it is borne out in the other polls )

    disclaimer: it is only one poll blah blah blah- if you dont find the breakdown helpful by all means ignore.

  43. James,

    I’m afraid it is an outrage for any party to try and rule on 35% of the vote, whether Tory, Labour or Lib Dem. Thatcher on 43% and Blair on 42% were an outrage too – none of them had a mandate as far as I was concerned. It is getting more outrageous every election at the moment howevre!

    Politicians should have a bit more humility, and realise that they only have the backing of a minority

  44. @Dave P – I think you’ve got to be careful not to exaggerate popular support for PR. I think for most people the electoral system ranks fairly low down on their list of concerns (although I don’t doubt its risen up the list following the LD surge). I suspect that if the Tories win the popular vote, no matter by how small a margin, then there won’t exactly be too much outrage over a majority government being formed, especially as many people treat elections if they were presidential anyway. But I admit, if the Tories were to get less votes than Labour in ’05, it would be awkward for them, if only because they wouldn’t be able to claim an effective mandate.

  45. Its early doors.

    For those of you fearful of a Con administration don’t be a minority government or a wafer thin majority with a sea of cuts and no corresponding provate sector injection spells a double dip. They will be out before a year is out. If they aren’t then they will have shown that they have competence. You can’t run their agenda without 20 seats majority. So nothing to fear.

    On the other hand: these polls are showing a centre/left coalition with PR referendum and tax reform at the heart of government to act as a growth catalyst. GB rides off into the sunset doing good where good can be done.

  46. @ James Ludlow

    fair point but one significant difference is the percieved need for substantial cuts. Trying to impose them, having not talked about them throughout the GE campaign, will lead to significantly more challenges to a 1/3 Tory majority than were experienced by the 1/3 Labour regime.

  47. @ Sue – I think that’s the YouGov London poll, which is confirmed but only a London poll.

  48. @Sue,

    arr good point on rubbing it in. I am quite nervy to be honest, this is really like 1992.

    I will watch the Brighton seats with interest. That green lady is favourite in Pavillion apparently? I watched a mini newsnight special on it.

    Is the YouGov London poll good or bad for anybody? I don’t know how to read the London polls.

    rich

  49. @ Richard O

    “There is no such thing as an unpartisan political person from Liverpool. My brother’s wife is from Liverpool, and I have never seen such relentless anti-tory rhetoric from her. I will be rubbing it in bigtime if the Tories get in.”

    ____________________________

    There is Cilla Black who’s Tory…so she had to leave.

    :)

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