There is a final Scottish poll from YouGov in the Scotsman this morning. Topline figures are CON 17%, LAB 37%, LDEM 22%, SNP 21%. These show very little change from the 2005 election – the Conservatives are up 1, Labour down 2, the Liberal Democrats down 1 and the SNP up 3. If there was a uniform swing across Scotland on Thursday, it would result in only two seats changing hands – the SNP gaining Ochil and South Perthshire, and the Liberal Democrats gaining Edinburgh South.


117 Responses to “YouGov final Scottish poll”

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  1. @ Colin.

    Counting advice:-

    1. Ignore the glares and get as close to your table as possible. preferably in the middle.

    2. carry TWO pens…and tear off paper for the rough count

    3. NEVER touch the table.

    4. Smile…It’s only a game.

  2. @ Andy JS

    “If Greece collapses into anarchy in the next few days and weeks it’ll be a stark reminder to whoever wins the election of the very real problems that lie ahead.”

    And in addition to today’s TV news from Athens, we’re seeing some reactions around the world’s stock markets, FTSE down 5.5% this week :(

  3. @Eoin

    This latest Poll does not support your assertions:
    GE 2005
    Con 15.8
    Lab 39.5
    LD 22.6
    SNP 17.7
    Others 4.4

    Latest Poll
    Con 17 (+1.2)
    Lab 37 (-2.5)
    LD 22 (-0.6)
    SNP 21 (+3.3)
    Others 3 (-1.4)

    These give swings as indicated in my last post. Look at each seat and then tell me why I am wrong!

    @Michael
    Re seat names
    Lab hold Dumfries and Galloway
    Con hold Demfriesshire, Clydedale and Tweeddale

  4. My main concern with the quoted opinion polls is they leave out the 40% of people who may or may not vote. I am sure this election has stirred up people to vote on Thursday. Many people will decide when they get into the polling booth. Exiting times nobody really knows what will happen

  5. Colin,

    I posted about counts on another thread recently.

    mostly you will be expected to watch the votes as the are turned face up during verification and tally up how many each party has in each polling district. Try to watch a different pile from the next person in your party and don’t worry about missing some – just get all you can.

    After that you can make a token effort of looking to see if there are any stray votes of yours in other people’s piles, but mostly just stand around chatting about the campaign with other activists – every count I have been to we have all been quite friendly….

  6. Looks like a hung parliament is odds on now. Tonight’s polls will probably confirm that, I suspect.

  7. Is there any information on the field dates of this Scottish poll?

    BTW: Some people ask about the 40% of people who don’t vote etc…In work in public opinion research. In my experience the people who don’t vote in elections also don’t take part in political surveys. so its a wash.

  8. IS the SNP figure 21% or is that The Scotsman playing politics by posting the combined SNP/PC fitgure? I don’t see a Scottish poll on the YouGov website.

    Never trust The Scotsman until you have figures in front of you from the survey itself. A more dishonest publication has rarely existed.

  9. re coverage of British elections in US
    -c-span 3 is going to air BBC’s live coverage beginning at 4:55 eastern time

  10. It is so nice to see that the term “Whig” is being used again. My campaign to bring back the Whigs must have worked. I am the real winner of this election campaign. Thanks Dave the Whig :)

  11. @JR Tomlin
    Is the SNP figure 21% or is that The Scotsman playing politics by posting the combined SNP/PC fitgure? I don’t see a Scottish poll on the YouGov website.

    The SNP has been polling about 20% throughout the campaign, but onits last regional poll ending 4 May they were showing 25% after leader’s broadcasts. So 21% is a drop from that poll. IMO it is the proper SNP only figure.

  12. Theresa
    One year in the 80s when I lived in Holland, the Dutch announcer said ‘and now we are going over to David Bumblebee’ at the BBC.

    I wrote to friends in England about it and I have since wondered whether I originated the soubriquet.

  13. Your Welcome Kyle.

    Best Wishes………..

  14. Are there any new polls out for tommorow night?

  15. FrankG, what published regional poll ending May 4? I don’t see a YouGov one. Did another company do one?

    I have the YouGov site pulled up at this moment and don’t see ANY Scottish poll there, either The Scotsman one or another one and it’ll be a cold day in hell I trust The Scotsman.

  16. @ANYONE
    -What is the common wisdom regarding what will happen after the election if the CONs receive a majority percentage of the vote Thursday
    BUT less than 290 seats?
    -IMO, the polls indicate this is the most likely outcome

  17. I’ll be sad when the election is over, I’m addicted to this site. Maybe some counselling will be required.

  18. @howard

    The story was told by richard Baker (against himself but has also been attributed to Gilbert Harding) of the BBC news announcer on the 3rd Programme who had a problem pronouncing Rimsky-Korsakov – he would say Kinsky Rorsakov or Rimsky Korkasov etc

    He took some time off with an elocutionist and a psychologist and eventually felt he could say it perfectly.

    First week back it was all Chopin and Mozart then the fateful day when at the end of the news bulletin he had to hand over

    “And now we have a performance by the London Symphony Orchestra of a work by “…deep breath……”Rimsky Korsakov” ,,,phew!

    “The Bum of the Flightlebee !!!”

  19. The Scotsman News paper is a pro Labour rag and I don’t believe any of the stuff it prints.

    The final poll of the campaign, showing voting intention data from PoliticsHome and YouGov across the nations and regions of the UK, shows a strong surge in SNP support as all the other parties lose ground going into polling day.

    The poll, with a Scottish sample size of 1,141 over the last week, shows the SNP pulling away in clear second place in Scotland on 25 per cent – up seven points on the party’s 2005 Westminster result and the SNP’s highest YouGov rating since early March. Labour are on 37 per cent, the LibDems on 22 and the Tories 14.

  20. Scotty Dog

    GROAN

    :)

  21. @ Kyle

    The Whigs will have to talk to DC first…No big deal as they are so far right of us that I can’t envisage anything coming of it. That leaves lots of unknowns left.

    Simple answer is……………NOBODY knows.

  22. I ment to put that last post as a joke. It will be a hair raising night tomorow. Maybee a real shocker. I not sure if I would survive it. Keep spreading the term Whig around. The term Tory survived so it is time to bring back the Whigs.

  23. Scotty Dog:

    It’s the way you tell ’em.

  24. @Al
    “The Scotsman News paper is a pro Labour rag ”

    What is the evidence for that? Do you mean because it doesn’t support independence?

  25. Does anyone know what polls are coming out tonight, and when?

    I cant believe YouGov and ComRes will be held back til 10..

  26. @Theresa

    % of votes are irelevant – its most seats except that the incumbent PM has 1st crack at forming a government even if he is 2nd in number of seats

  27. Dave,

    I thought the Whigs already joined Cameron’s party about 100 years ago?

    I think UKIP are the natural inheritors of the Whig tendency in the Uk, probably, since free trade seems to have been the defining characteristic of whigs especially in the Victorian era

    Andrew

  28. @ KYLE & DAVE

    But the majority of the Whigs merged with the Tories in the year ‘dot’ so by referring to the ‘Whigs’ you are referring to the Tories !!

  29. @Frank G,

    Your optimism is to be admired… There have been several scotland polls go take a look at them :)

  30. From the view of someone South of the Border, I think that Alex Salmond is a real hard hitter. I would prefer him to all those namby pamby politicians. I would be very surprised however if the SNP do well in Scotland however. Scotland is Labour through and through and it would take a large meteor to change political opinion up there.
    I am quite pleased however, with the Scottish Parliments method of the Regional List. That is one method of PR I would support. It suits the Assembaly and without the Regional List, Labour would be in power up there forever.

  31. GG:

    Are you suggesting people need evidence for their statements? Blimey!

    I’m sensing a deathly hush settling over us all as we wait for rumours of rumours of polls.

    I’m off to Brescia next week in my real-life role as a classical guitarist: they probably won’t even know we’ve had an election over here, and that’ll be quite nice.

  32. All True guys…But…….I’m declaring UDI…LOL

  33. UKIP are the ineritors of the Whigs as Whiggery is ‘largely irrelevant and without a natural political home’ (from Wikipedia).

  34. @KYLE DOWNING

    ‘From the view of someone South of the Border, I think that Alex Salmond is a real hard hitter. I would prefer him to all those namby pamby politicians’

    Agreed – I vote LibDem for Westminster but SNP for Holyrood. Why SNP and not LibDem for Holyrood ? – well it’s not because I particularly favour Independance – it’s because I see Alex S exactly as you say – hard hitting and good for Scotland

  35. @ ANDREW

    The liberals (whigs) were big on electoral reform – never forget who gave women the vote. Whigs instituted the first old age pension. Whigs were social and economic liberals, and as the Liberal Party and then the LibDems are direct descendants of the Whigs (only one wing of the liberals merged with the tories, albeit, I think that it happened twice).

    To me, if the conservatives can be called tories (which they haven’t been since the 1830s!!!) then the LibDems can be called whigs.

    Keep the whig renaissance alive!

  36. DL
    Thanks for your contribution
    I wonder if the turn out on Thursday will be back above 70%? How does the size of the turn out help or hinder smaller parties performance?

  37. @Kyle,

    I like your whig analogy,

    So would Palmerston, Russell, Grey, Melbourne and all the rest! Keep up the banter :) :)

  38. My mission is simple: To give the Liberal Democrats a name accosiated with their Liberal ancestors. Hence the name Whigs. The old name of the Liberal party. I overlook historical and political technicalities as I beleive that they are irrelevent. I am glad that I have converted one follower. I would be gobsmacked if I convert another. The Whigs will stay regardless of technicallities.
    Out of curiosity by the way, what sould we call Labour? “Lab” dosent ring a bell for me.

  39. Looking at the latest poll for Scotland it will come as no surprise to anyone who knows the country and how
    people there think, it is so different in attiude to the rest of the UK. Strange indeed to realise whereas nowadays Tories are rare animals in 1955 GE
    they were the leading party.

  40. The SNP will do better than these figures suggest, I think the 25% in another poll seems possible as the odds on a number of contests have tightened. The SNP are certainly favourites to take Dundee West, Livingstone and Ochil. They’re now close in Kilmarnock, Linlithgow and Aberdeen North with outside chances elsewhere.

    The momentum seems to be with the SNP. And while they won’t get close to 20 seats it’s certainly possible they could be headed for 10-12.

  41. @Kyle

    Labour = “the Trots”? – or maybe the “Fabs” after the fabians?

    I think “the Reds” is probably as good as any…

  42. @Martin,

    The Bukharin fans might object to ‘trots’ :)

  43. @ Martin

    And don’t forget the obvious comeback from the Cons.

    Take Omodium to relive Trot symptoms

  44. Should have said “Relieve”

  45. “Fabs” seems a good one. I don’t want anything offencive though. I would like to call them Socalists but unfortunatly Tony Blair deprived me of the oppertunity many years ago. Something catchy.

  46. Anyone recognise this poll? Or have i found one?

    w w w .thisislondon.co.uk/standard/politics/article-23830837-result-is-on-a-knife-edge-tories-and-labour-set-to-win-271-seats-each.do

  47. Just wanted to say thanks! I’ve enjoyed this site and all the comments throughout the election. Will miss it….until the next election is called (6 months???)
    Mary

  48. @PaulCroft
    “Are you suggesting people need evidence for their statements? Blimey!”

    I know – all this intellectual rigour is so uncool :-)

    Enjoy some tortelli for me!

  49. It looks like the SNP gang have hit and run. All is quiet again.

    Has The Scotsman paper upset them?

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