There is a final Scottish poll from YouGov in the Scotsman this morning. Topline figures are CON 17%, LAB 37%, LDEM 22%, SNP 21%. These show very little change from the 2005 election – the Conservatives are up 1, Labour down 2, the Liberal Democrats down 1 and the SNP up 3. If there was a uniform swing across Scotland on Thursday, it would result in only two seats changing hands – the SNP gaining Ochil and South Perthshire, and the Liberal Democrats gaining Edinburgh South.

117 Responses to “YouGov final Scottish poll”

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  1. If the gap is 5% as YouGov and ICM have it, then the blues are 5% off a majority of 1. The reds are 3% off a majority of 1.

    Who has the best chance, blues of getting 5% or reds of getting 3%?

  2. @Grem3

    Yes, however note that the reporting is inaccurate.

    It’s a London only voting intention poll, so they can’t plug the figures into a national seat calculator (which is what they’ve done to get the 271 each figure)

    The poll represents a 6-point swing to the Tories since 2005, so if *that* was reproduced nationally you’d be looking at a nine-point Conservative lead – possible overall majority territory.

    However, that could be misleading – the recent “View from the regions” breakdown shows the London swing higher than the national swing. So this poll is consistent with a national swing of 4.5% – i.e the YG position for most of the last week before the sudden shift yesterday.


    I’m not sure we’ll see a UNS in this election so not sure that kind of calculation works. The Tories may end up with a better swing just where they need it – enough to make them the largest party by far – even though UNS suggests a dead heat in terms of seats.

    Its going to be more about where the parties are doing well or not doing well in this election I think – more than ever before.

  4. Eoin,

    Honestly? The Tories.

    The answer is really “nobody” of course.

  5. @PANKOT

    Yes, it is a London only poll – but very interesting nonetheless! No sign of LD squeeze here.

    Shows LAB 8% down (on 2005) with the split going almost equally to LD and CON.

  6. Re: Whigs

    I’d argue that the Whigs are no longer in the Liberal party. Most of the remainign whig elemants in the Liberal party left with Lord Hartington in 1886 and became Liberal Unionists, after the Irish Home Rule crisis.

    Liberal Unionists tended to go into coalition with the Conservaitves, and since 1912 were amalgamated fomally with the party. I think that ‘Liberal-Conservatives’ like Clarke are better described as Whig, although I agree that orange-book Lib Dems could also merit the term.

  7. The Herald’s reporting of this poll is truly hilarious – they headline their article “Huge Labour lead in polls” and focus almost entirely on the Lab-Con gap, barely mentioning that the Tories are FOURTH in the poll!

    I wouldn’t describe either the Scotsman or Herald as “Labour rags”. In the 80s both were fairly Tory, but with that becoming commercial suicide in Scotland as the 80s progressed, they basically became Unionist. Their support for Labour in the 90s and 00s is something of a flag of convenience and I’m sure the Scotsman would revert to crusty Old Tory if it could.
    Between that and their pathetic on-line offerings, they’re dying faster than the UK dead tree press anyway: the Scotsman can’t even sell 50,000 copies nowadays. Neither will be missed when they go in the next decade, frankly.

  8. Evening all,

    Has anyone else put their predictions in the Guardian “wisdom of the masses” prediction thing? You put in your take on who will win the popular vote, the most seats, who will form the next government and when, and finally your exact seat number predictions. Surely a UKPR regular ought to get closest?

  9. @ Eoin

    YG regional consolidated poll for week ending 18 Apr
    gave for Scottish region:
    C17, L39, LD20, SNP20, Oth5

    YG regional consolidated poll for week ending 25 Apr
    gave for Scottish region:
    C14, L36, LD25, SNP21, Oth4

    YG in Scotland on 2 May gave:
    C17, L37,LD22, SNP20, Oth4

    TNS BMRB in the Scottish Mail on 2May gave:
    C13, Lab44, LD16, SNP23. Oth4

    YG regional consolidated poll for week ending 2 May gave for Scottish region:
    C14, L37, LD22, SNP25, Oth2

    YG in Scotland on 5 May (above) gives:
    C17, L37, LD22, SNP21, Oth3

    The ‘trend’ seems to be static at 37; Cons coming up to 17 at the expense of SNP; LD static at 22. The SNP/Con may be the first signs of anti Lab tactical voting by SNP supporters.

    What polls do you have to contradict this view?

  10. 35 27 26 Opinium

  11. I think that Opinium is +2 – 1 -1 on the last one

  12. I can’t stand this anymore. I spent my entire morning at work sneaking off to play swingometer games. I’m cracking up here. Why can’t it be tomorrow evening??????????????

  13. 12% for ‘others’? is that likely?

  14. @FrankG

    Did you see a populus one?


  15. FrankG, I can’t see how the ‘consolidated’ poll managed to give the SNP 25% when all other YG polls were 20-23% for the party.

    The SNP’s tally should surely be 20-21%.

    Your misprint?

  16. Is the fact that the polls have been so static in Scotland an indication that the Scottish no longer care that much who is in power at Westminster?

    Have they not being paying much attention to the campaign compared to the English do you think?

  17. @JRTomlin

    FrankG, what published regional poll ending May 4? I don’t see a YouGov one. Did another company do one?

    My post to Eoin gives the consolidated poll figures and specialist polls. As Eoin has pointed out there was another Populus on 1 May. I only made a note of the figures C16, L37, LD24, SNP 19, Oth4
    This poll only confirms my thoughts that the L are on 37, Con on 16/17, LD on 22/24, SNP 19/21, Oth 4/3

    It amazed me too, but yes SNP 25, now gone back to the range 19/21, which I agree is more likely.

    Thanks for reminding me of that one.

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