There is a final Scottish poll from YouGov in the Scotsman this morning. Topline figures are CON 17%, LAB 37%, LDEM 22%, SNP 21%. These show very little change from the 2005 election – the Conservatives are up 1, Labour down 2, the Liberal Democrats down 1 and the SNP up 3. If there was a uniform swing across Scotland on Thursday, it would result in only two seats changing hands – the SNP gaining Ochil and South Perthshire, and the Liberal Democrats gaining Edinburgh South.


117 Responses to “YouGov final Scottish poll”

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  1. I posted this on the COM RES thread but it has it’s proper place here

    YouGOv scottish poll reported in the scotsman

    h t t p://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/General-Election-2010-David-Cameron.6272436.jp

    Interesting article with Cameron quoted as saying “polls, polls schmoles” in response to the figures

    (That’s us told!)

    LAB 37 (NC)
    LD 22 (NC)
    SNP 21 (+1)
    CON 17 (nc)

    GE 2005

    Lab: 922,402 votes = 39.5% = 41 seats = 69.5%
    Lib: 528,076 votes = 22.6% = 11 seats = 18.6%
    SNP: 412,267 votes = 17.7% = 6 seats = 10.2%
    Con: 369,388 votes = 15.8% = 1 seat = 1.69%

    YouGov poll would lead to 2 seats going from LAB – one to LD and one to SNP as only changes in Scotland, according to YouGov

  2. Prior to the campaign what had been the general expectation re:scottish seat changes in terms of conservatives winning/labour losing the general election?

  3. Presumably this makes a big difference when we are looking at uniform swings across the country. The BBC swingometer includes Scotish seats on it’s UNS so includes Labour seats that are NEVER going to fall.

    So how does this affect the UNS predictions. Are these taken into account?

  4. prior to te election expectations of a slight CON recovery – 1-3 gains depenmding on your viewpoint.

    During it a bit of Clegg factor. SNP went down in the last year but coverage for Salmond has seen them recover during the campaign.

    That would be my take.

    SNP is generally regarded as centre-left but it is in their interest for CON to win the general election. If you read the comments below the article (squeeze up the http in the link) you will get the drift

  5. @Anthony

    I can assure you that Ochil and South Perthshire will be a Green gain :-)

  6. Does anyone have any up to date information on Dumfries? Will blueys hold it?

  7. There is cautious optimism that:

    1. Darling will not have a “Michael Portillo moment”
    2. Mark will hold EN&L
    3. ES will, however, go to the LD.

    Edinburgh – on the ground – seems to be the same as Anthony is saying, whatever DC thinks of the polls ;-)

  8. If Scotland voted in line with the UK poll there could be a tie in Stirling! The Tories would gain Dumfries and Alastair Darling would be Edinburgh’s only Lab MP (the rest going to Lib Dems)

  9. @ PAUL G

    I think Mark L would hold EN&L for LAB, on these numbers. Why do you think ES & EN&L would both go LD?

  10. I disagree Amber Star

    Labour would be lucky to hold Edinburgh North where we have been flooded with info from everyone except Labour. It’s a big swing, but seems more likely than Ed South for LD where there is a small margin but more confusing factors, eg the Tories/SNP who have no chance in Ed North.

    Darling does look safe.

  11. 2 seats expected to go in Scotland and 2 in Wales. NI don’t vote labour anyway. Pretty much all of Labour’s losses will be in England then. At least Scotland won’t be to blame for PM Cameron I suppose.

    Will SNP and PC be singing from the rooftops with a gain of 1 seat each?

  12. @Adrian

    It also means cons will be getting bigger swings elsewhere across the country so where they might not be gaining seats in Scotland they will elsewhere.

  13. The SNP were shouting from the rooftops that they were going to gain 20 seats. So 1 gain is abysmal.

  14. For those interested I have posted my assessment of the latest YouGov poll in the ComRes thread. Will not repost as the 2 posts I made are quite lengthy.

  15. Effect of Scotland on rest of UK in polls.

    Scotland has around 10% of the population, so if there was no swing from 2005 in Scotalnd (which looks close to being true), you need to add 10% relative to any change in the national polls to get the swing in England and wales. So If labour are down 5% nationally, they are really down 5.5% outside Scotland, and conversely if the Lib dems are up 5% they are really up 5.5%. If the Tories are up 2% they are really up 2.2% etc

    Just an adjustment people should make to the swing in England , whatever tonight’s polls show. You can include Wales in the adjustment too, but the Welsh polls I have seen have been a bit all over the place

    Andrew

  16. I live in EN&L – local LDs have been mounting a big tactical vote push aimed at Con voters (3rd last time) and there is some evidence that these arguments are being heard. It will be v. close.

  17. We should also remember that the predicted seat changes are on the 2005 election – so this prediction would mean Labour regaining Dunfermline West from the Lib Dems, and Glasgow East from the SNP.

    So actually, the overall position would be identical to that existing at the end of the last parliament. I wonder how often that has happened?

  18. ‘MICHAEL
    The SNP were shouting from the rooftops that they were going to gain 20 seats. So 1 gain is abysmal.’

    They havent said that for ages… And I think they said it was an aspiration, not a fact

  19. Not a Scottish comment but as this is the current thread …

    If you look back over the entire campaign, the only effect it appears to have had is on the LD vote. That rose around the time of the first debate – and the rise was sustained by the subsequent publicity. It is falling as the level of publciity has fallen away. But for the other parties – what good has “winning” the third debate done Cameron? What harm has losing all three debates done Brown? What difference did bigotgate make? None. What difference did the support of the various papers make? None. What diffreence did all the speeches and visits make? None.

    In short, apart from demonstrating that the LibDems benefit from publciity, what has been the point of the campaign?!

  20. I think Dumfries is the only shaky Lab-Con marginal. I doubt the Tories will gain anything from the LDs or SNP but I could see ES going to LD.

    Dunfermline to go back to Labour, despite the fact their candidate is virtually invisible.

    Glasgow East will clearly go back to Lab. Ochil to the SNP.

    Stirling does look interesting

  21. I wonder what the effect of today’s events in Athens will have on the UK election?

  22. I agree, EN&L has been a hard fought campaign & it will be a nail-biter of a finish.

    RE: Conservatives voting tactically for LD, most Tories I have spoken to will not TV & won’t support LD because they expect a LAB/LD coalition (which there is a history of in Holyrood).

    I think it more likely that SNP voters will TV for LD – that’s what I am most concerned about.

  23. The 20 seats thing was touted more at the start of the campaign as a target. An odd one though, seeing as polls never showed it being remotely possible.

    And Leslie has a point. Personally I blame the debates. People in the US warned us about this, how they dominate the campaign. For the last 3 weeks almost all campaign news has been debate related, and aside from the first one they didn’t matter. I prefer the old fashioned campaign with days about issues and press conferences and so on.

  24. If Greece collapses into anarchy in the next few days and weeks it’ll be a stark reminder to whoever wins the election of the very real problems that lie ahead.

  25. Writer and broadcaster Clive Anderson predicts that Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman will be prime minister by next week. He argues that the Lib Dems will be unable to work with Gordon Brown and will opt for a coalition led by Ms Harman instead.

    From BBC

  26. Ladbrokes apparently have the Tories as favourites to hold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (seems likely), taking Dumfries and Galloway (possible, but not certain) and Renfrewshire East (taking Jim Murphys seat…seems very unlikely)

  27. @AmberStar
    @NewToThis
    “Labour would be lucky to hold Edinburgh North where we have been flooded with info from everyone except Labour.”

    Must have missed NTT’s street :-)

  28. I expect two gains for Labour in Scotland.

    Dundee East
    Dumfries
    It is also likely that Glasgow east will return to red but that is not a gain from 2005.

  29. @All

    Many of you have not have worked out the various swings that this poll would indicate, so I will list them:

    Lab/Con 1.85
    Lab/LD 0.95
    LD/Con 0.9
    Lab/PC 2.9
    Con/SNP 1.05
    LD/SNP 1.95

    It is doubtfull that these swings can be applied like some UNS. Most seats in Scotland seem to laws unto themselves. To get a feel of how this might be affected, it is necessary to examine each seat individually and, very important, to take in local factors. Livingston is one such local factor, where the SNP could make a gain from Lab.

    IMO the following seems possible:

    Con gain Stirling from Lab, poss gain Dumphries from Lab and gain Renfrewshire E from Lab. No losses

    SNP to gain Ochil & S Perthdhire from Lab, poss Livingston from Lab and poss gain Dundee W from Lab.

    LD to gain Aberdeen S from Lab, Edinburgh S from Lab, Glasgow N from Lab, poss Edinburgh E from Lab, Edinburgh N & Leith from Lab

    There is also tight contests in Angus poss SNP/Con gain and in Argyll & Bute poss LD/Con gain.

    IMO there is a likelyhood of more surprises in Scotland than application of UNS from this poll across the board would have you believe.

  30. @ GREEN GRASS

    Yes, indeed! There has been masses of Labour info delivered by post & hand in EN&L. They are lucky to have escaped the attendant recycling duty ;-)

  31. Eoin,

    To avoid confusion Labour hold Dumfries and Galloway. The Tories hold Dumfrieshire Galloway and Tweedale. Both are really close fights this time around.

    On another note on the times website it has a prediction from Ladbrokes which has the tories short by 6. It has them gaining Dumfries and Galloway and Renfrewshire East.

    On the same page FInk tank give the Tories a Majority of 1 and has them gaining Dumfries and Galloway, Renfrew east, Stirling, Ochil, Perth Angus and Moray! I will eat my hat if that happens.

  32. Michael,

    Will you eat some of your hat if the Tories do surpise us with 4 of those?

  33. @michael and Frank G

    As polite as i can put it, there is practically no chance of those switches materialising. If the tories think that there will losses of this magnitude for Labour in Scotland, then they really are losing their marbles. We have had a lot of recent polls for Scotland. On any of them Labour are doing well. Their vote has held up even when in other areas it fell back. Taking all scotland polls of this campaign the tories on a good day can expect approximately 0.5% swing from red. It is most likely that Labour will gain votes and seats in 2010 compared to their 2005 score in Scotland for three amin reasons.

    SNP tactical voting; and there is much evidence of it.
    Iraq and a popular Charlei Kenendy are no more so scottish Liberals will not post quite as good a performance as they did last time.
    The scots do not want a tory government, they will go to any lengths to stop it.

    anecdotally, i have firends from Belfast canvassing for Labour in both Dumfries constituencies the last three weekends. the promised level of tactical voting by SNP voters is considerable.

    It is quite the stretch of the imagination to expect blue gains here.

    And as for Alisdair Darling or Jim Murphy’s seats- good luck with that one! :)

    The SNP will be happy to hold Dundee East. Scottish voters are already settlign down into a split ticket voting system, they are a savvy lot and they do not like blue.

  34. @eoin

    Historically incumbents in rural or island areas of scotland have been pretty difficult to dislodge, unless they have had a personal fiasco – I am not aware of anything like that in D@G so my guess would be it would not change hands.

    Having shared a room for a couple of years with a guy from ‘St Johns Town of Dalry’ I can say they will certainly vote on local rather than national grounds.

    The local paper is the D@G Standard and it has no election coverage in its online version – you wouldn’t know it was happening!

  35. Sassenach,

    I will eat my hat and your hat if the Tories win anymore than 3 seats in Scotland.

  36. the London Evening Standard. Its poll of Londoners has the Tories on 36%, Labour on 31% and the Lib Dems on 27%

  37. @Scotty,

    Thanks for that. I was there quite recently myself (Gretna), possibly the least Scottish place in Scotland. On the Scottish seats, I am looking forward to Thrusday, I have followed the Scottish vote closest, isnce 2005. Their adeptness for tactical voting surpasses anything the Sassenach can muster south of the border.

    Trade union friends were in Portpatrick canvassing three weeks in a row, they reported a lot of SNP willing to swtich. So lets wait and see :) :)

  38. Guys your anecdotal stories about which scottish seats LAbour might lose are interesting but they have littel reflection on the polls. Labour is doing very very very well in Scottish polling. You will have to go away and conjure up losses for them in York and Humber.

  39. Eoin,

    You have confused me. I didn’t say any seats would change hands! I just reported a FINKTANK prediction on the times website and expressed my disbelief at it. For what it is worth I actually agree with you about the Labour vote in Scotland.

  40. @Michael,

    Very sorry! Misread your post… :):) :) :) :) :)

  41. Eoin
    That is quite alright and some of those seats that FINKTANK predict will go blue are SNP seats. They predict that the SNP will have 3 seats in the new parliament.

  42. @Michael,

    Lunatics- who is this Think tank?

  43. I haven’t a clue they are on the times website. They have an iteractive guide and it shows you the map as it is now, what Ladbrokes predict and then Finktank. Strangely last week they had labour 20 seats short of a majority and now they have the Tories with a majority of one.

  44. A little off topic, I’m going to the count on Thursday with the PPC in my constituency to look at the votes as they come out of the ballot boxes. What goes on at the count? What should I be looking out for? With Edgbaston being a marginal, I suspect the BBC will have cameras there to catch the declarations as they happen.

  45. @EoinC

    FinkTank is that SDP renegade Danny Finkelstein. Can’t understand why he has gained so much credibility.

  46. A quote from the Times website on finktank.

    “The Fink Tank team of academic statisticians — Henry Stott, Ian Graham and Keith Simpson — have been modelling football results for The Times for almost a decade, and very successfully too, beating the bookies season after season. Now they have turned their attention to politics”

  47. Anybody who takes Danny Finkelstein seriously needs to seriously consider if they are in fact related to Bram Stoker’s namesakes.

  48. Colin Green OT Count
    I am astonished that you have not been issued with instructions on the Count. Make sure you don’t set off at 2130 like the idiots to whom I referred in a previous anecdote.

  49. Howard

    “I am astonished that you have not been issued with instructions on the Count”

    I have, including “arrive at 21:30 for a briefing: They start counting at 10 sharp”. I want some of the ‘less formal’ suggestions that I won’t get from the people giving me jobs to do, if you know what I mean.

  50. The Scotsman report understates the SNP support which in the same poll is shown at 25%. The newspaper appears to have used a headline figure for SNP and Plaid Cymru combined.

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