There is a new(ish) Harris poll in this morning’s Metro. Topline figures are CON 36%(+3), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 28%(-4). The changes are from a poll a week ago, thought the fieldwork actually overlapped with one, which was conducted between the 28th April and 4th May, despite having a sample size of 786. I have no idea why Harris take so long with their fieldwork, I expect TNS BMRB to be slower as they conduct face-to-face surveys, but online surveys should be fast!

I don’t know if this is Harris’s final call, or they will have a more up-to-date poll tonight. Most companies should be publishing their final calls tonight, the exception will be Ipsos MORI, whose final poll will be in tomorrow’s Evening Standard.


99 Responses to “Harris/Metro – 36/26/28”

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  1. @Clann na Talham,

    A cahra,

    Silim go bhfuil se an 35 an ceart go leoir

    Carolin Lucas
    agus 2 Respect MPs (London)
    Agus 1 indenpendant in Cymru?

  2. @Newbie Nick

    Check out Anthony’s post from a few weeks ago on the subject:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2645

  3. Re – Peter Lucas

    I think there is absolutely no chance of a Labour- Liberal pact if the former do not win the most seats.
    I have absolutely no idea why you think the LD’s would support such a notion. If one thing is clear from this election it is that people want a change, they have had enough of the incumbents.
    They are just not convinced enough about DC. The LD’s are not stupid to perpetuate the old which would be suicidal to their own aspirations.

  4. @Nbeale

    “Looks like we’ll see something like 38:30:23 in the final polls, and 41:29:22 on the night. But we shall see.”

    41:29:22……

    Great stuff- best laugh I’ve had all WEEK :-)

    Now PLEASE go out and lay down a punt….. ;-)

  5. @Fred Wyane

    I don’t necessarily disagree with you; but consider this – how many more MPs would the libdems get with 15% under PR vs 25% now. My point being that even if supporting a Labour government would cost them votes now, it would benefit their cause in the long term.

  6. @ Fred Wayne

    I dont disagree with you Fred ,but I think the incumbents will try ANYTHING to avoid a blue Governement. However if The blueys form a minority Govt with 280 -300 seats they havent got the oomph too push through the required cuts. A real conumdrum

  7. @Fred Wyane

    While it might be clear the public have had enough of the government, a hung parliament shows they also have no enthusiasm for DC. So why would propping up a Tory party that has failed to convince the public be better than supporting a Labour party which is still the choice of c250-260 constituencies?

    Whichever the Libs decide to support will win them enemies in the other camp, the sensible thing will be to ally with the party prepared to make most concessions, deliver as much of their manifesto as they can.

  8. Watching Greece burn and reading the EC’s warning that Britain’s deficit is worse than Greece’s and the worst in the EU, I’m starting to think that the winner of this election will inherit a chalice that’s not only poisoned but radioactive too.

    Perhaps I should switch my vote to the party I least wanted to win.

  9. @FredWyane
    “I think there is absolutely no chance of a Labour- Liberal pact if the former do not win the most seats.”

    You probably missed it but I posted some time ago that the 2 parties might agree a time-limited arrangement to allow an electoral reform referendum and implementation of upper chamber elections under PR with Commons elections to be held under the new system (following legislation) if approved. In the meantime, Lab could accept LDs’ proposal for a Council for Financial Stability and invite all other parties to join.

  10. @ james

    I could not agree with you more James. I would, if apolitican want to LOSE this election just to get some on else to get the blame. If the Tories to not lead a Govt or form a majority Govt any coalition will collapse after a few months with another Election as the mounting Financial crisis part 2 deepens. THe best out come really would be a National Governemnt of ALL party talent to take the public with them for the storms ahead. You are right a radioactive chalice not a poisoned one

  11. Nothing to do with any of the above but on the general subject of last minute changes of opinion/vote does anyone here have any academic knowledge about the Spanish election following the Madrid bombing, and whether it was as dramatic a change of direction as made out at the time, or happened for the reasons seized upon?

    From what I recall the election was a couple of days after the bomb. The socialists won, while the press in the outside world at least informed us the conservative incumbents had been expected to win and of course put two and two together. The immediate explanation was the public were punishing the sitting government/pm for lying to them and trying to claim it had nothing to do with iraq/al quaida but was down to ETA. This quickly got lost in the pro-war american media and popular mindset as the bomb itself had eitehr made the spanish people more anti war, or ,,,by snide implication.. made them give in to terror to save themselves.

    Either way does anyone know if any of this was demonstrated by later polling evidence, or was it all just media imagination? Were the socialists that far behind before the election? Or was it a straight forward case of them voting differently on the day than the pollsters had picked up, and nothing to do with the bomb?

  12. @JamesLudlow
    “Watching Greece burn and reading the EC’s warning that Britain’s deficit is worse than Greece’s and the worst in the EU, I’m starting to think that the winner of this election will inherit a chalice that’s not only poisoned but radioactive too.”


    While the statistic is correct, it should also be viewed in the context of each country’s growth prospects which in the case of the UK are higher than any other EU country according to the OECD. Countries with lower growth prospects will find it harder to reduce their deficits. The UK has the benefit of having its own currency to adjust, unlike the Eurozone countries that are in trouble.

  13. @ Greengrass – “The UK has the benefit of having its own currency to adjust”

    Or to go into freefall.

    The EC growth forecast for Britain is considerably lower than the government’s.

  14. Greengrass, “The UK has the benefit of having its own currency to adjust, unlike the Eurozone countries that are in trouble.”

    And the advantage that our government debt is denominated in £, which we can choose to devalue, whereas were Greece to return to the Drachma that would devalue and its debts are in Euros which would exacerbate the problem.

  15. The Lib Dems would ally with which ever of the other two was willing to legislate a timetabled date for a referendum on PR with a further timetabled date for legislation to enable PR for the next election, assuming the referendum vote was positive for PR. A short term expediant for long term gain. Given statements put out during this GE, that other party is unlikely to be the tories.

    As regards the economy, given the level of slash and burn that will be needed over the next 12/18 months and fallout there from, the government, what ever it’s make up will need to show it has the tacit backing of the majority of voters. A minority tory administration could not/would not be able to do that, at least not for very long.

  16. I’m increasingly minded that in the event of a HP, there is a real possibility that we might see a national coalition government with ministers drawn from each of the three main parties. This would mean that all parties can share the blame for the cuts and tax increases we can expect.

  17. @Gattino
    “does anyone here have any academic knowledge about the Spanish election following the Madrid bombing”

    A study by Real Instituto Elcano concluded there was a net 1.4m increased turnout (a record for Spain in absolute terms but not in %age – 74%) and a 1.1m switch in votes, including tactical voting by minor party supporters. Polls prior to the bombings pointed to a PP win and subsequent polls suggest the bombing was a factor. Despite a record vote for the socialists, they did not manage an outright majority.

    I recall that was a substantial effect of people texting each other to spread the alternative version of events and counter the official government attempts to blame ETA.

  18. Latest announcement of highest growth in manufacturing sector in 15 years must be an antidote to the gloomy prognosis from Euroland re growth and deficit reduction, and act perhaps a last minute fillip for Brown? In the same report the new orders index is at it’s highest for 6 years and employment index for the sector is at highest for 3 years.

  19. @ FingerBob – “the government, what ever it’s make up will need to show it has the tacit backing of the majority of voters. A minority tory administration could not/would not be able to do that, at least not for very long.”

    I agree. However, I think it would be even worse for a minority Labour administration (which would be blamed not only for cuts but also for the situation that required them).

    As it now looks unlikely that any party is going to have a substantial majority, MikeN’s proposal of a national coalition government seems the best response.

  20. @Woodsman
    “Latest announcement of highest growth in manufacturing sector in 15 years”

    Construction PMI also at highest since Sep 2007

  21. I agree. If we had not had a National Coalition in WW2 we would have no doubt lost the war. This Economic Crisis is so severe that no one party can actually cope with the fallout from it. People oft say coalitions do not work but when one has ones back against the wall there is really no other option. Less democratically advance nationas have always opted for ome party dictatorships in such events, which given the “British” way is a no brainer and of course dangerous.

    Although Labour have been blamed for the recession I think some of that blame should be on the heads of “greedy bankers” (replace the b with a w if you wish), none of whom have been prsecuted for there crass behaviour (eg Fred goodwin). Saying that Labour should have put a bit bof money aside for a rainy day which thye didnt do so they were wrong there. To keep saying and end to “boom and bust” is also wrong and arrogant.

    Forecast: Shares on the world markets will slump in the Summer -trust me

  22. It would be a tremendous squabble I would have thought as to who would be Chancellor in any unity government.
    IMO Darling has played an extraordinarily difficult hand – bearing in mind the global meltdown and the fact that ex-chancellor GB was his boss – supremely well and deserves to stay in post.

  23. So, in a national gov, who would be PM?

    An argument could be made out that GB shoudl continue.

    I don’t see DC being installed as PM.

    On the other hand, DC might be acceptable to both C and L?

  24. Oops, lst sentence in my last post should read:

    On the other hand, NC might be acceptable to both C and L?

  25. There’s no way GB could continue as PM unless he won the election. Too many people want to see the back of him.

    As for Chancellor – would a national unity coalition necessarily have to conform to the usual government set-ups? Or could it – for reasons of national crisis – temporarily adopt different structures? If the latter, there wouldn’t necessarily have to be “a Chancellor” as such.

  26. @JamesLudlow
    “there wouldn’t necessarily have to be “a Chancellor” as such.”

    Maybe there wouldn’t have to be a 1st Lord of the Treasury either.

  27. Another strong reason for coalition govts ; choose from Darling, Osborne or Cable…

  28. @Mike N: There is virtually no chance of anyone but Cameron being the next PM, if the polls are anything like accurate.

  29. @ Greengrass – well that’s a role taken by the PM. Maybe the First Lord role wouldn’t be necessary but I think we’d still need a PM. I can’t see the public accepting a headless government, and governments (and PMs) do have business beyond the purely economic.

  30. James Ludlow “There’s no way GB could continue as PM unless he won the election. Too many people want to see the back of him.”

    I’m thinking that GB could stand down as leader of Lab and continue as PM for say two years.

    But you’re probably right.

  31. Pound rise and gov bond yield fall reported today in Bloomberg on basis of Telegraph article claiming Cons could form government with support of DUP.

  32. On a slightly different topic – any dodgy Twitter rumours yet about tonight’s polls?

  33. There’s an ICM rumour that the poll is done and due to be published in The Guardian – but nothing on the results ;-)

  34. @Peter Lucas

    “Forecast: Shares on the world markets will slump in the Summer -trust me”

    You don’t need to be Nostradamus to think this. Shares always drop in the Summer – there is an old stock market adage of ‘Sell in May and go away’.

    Lots of sensible reasons for it – reduced liquidity due to people on holiday etc.

  35. Twitter rumour site http://tweetminster.tumblr.com/post/572938705/tweetminster-predicts-a-hung-parliament

    got from the Guardian
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/may/05/general-election-2010-live-blog which says ‘They’ve been inspired by some research in Japan, which found that that in a majority of constituencies the candidate mentioned most on Twitter won the seat, and they have been monitoring the mention of UK election candidates in more than 400 seats. Using these results, they predict that the Tories will get 35% of the vote, Labour 30% and the Lib Dems 27%.

    They also predict that Esther Rantzen will win in Luton South (which seems unlikely, but I haven’t been there) and they also say there’s a strong chance of Caroline Lucas winning in Brighton Pavilion.’

  36. @GreenGrass,

    Your analysis of MAdrid bombing was very good. They say it produced a swing of 5% away from the government..

  37. @EoinClarke
    “Your analysis of MAdrid bombing was very good”

    There was another one I could tell you about. 30 minutes after it blew a certain Admiral up on his way to Mass, I passed the site of the ETA bomb that effectively ensured that the country went from dictatorship to constitutional monarchy.

  38. GB has already decided that this is his last election. He has rediscovered himself his vocation through Gillian Duffy and the UK Citizens Electrion Assembly. This election has seen him humbled, faced with the near political death experience, on his road to Damascus.

    I expect him to stay on for a year at most even if he does form the next Government. 14 years at the top table is enough.

  39. If the Tories get to 300 seats ish. I am more minded to see a Grand Coalition of Nationalists, DUP, Labour, and Lib Dems. overall Economy binds them together at least for a year.

    I think the Lib Dems would split over support for the Cons

  40. If the gap is 5% as YouGov and ICM have it, then the blues are 5% off a majority of 1. The reds are 3% off a majority of 1.

    Who has the best chance, blues of getting 5% or reds of getting 3%?

  41. One last push?…..
    Gordon Brown’s speech to Citizen UK on Monday is now the most watched video on YouTube in the UK with almost 90,000 views and the second in the “most popular” section.

  42. I can’t think someone with no previous government experience would be acceptable as PM in a ‘national’ government. On the Tory side that doesn’t extend much further than Ken Clarke (who would probably do OK heading a centrist government).

  43. I’ve decided to give my first seat forcast:

    274 Labour
    271 Conservative
    76 Liberal Democrat
    29 Others

  44. Hello everyone. :o

    I’m out most of tonight so I am going to predict an average of tonights final polls.

    Con 36-38

    Lab 29-30

    LD 28-29

    Then the real poll tomorrow:

    Con 38-39

    Lab 26-27

    LD 25-26

    Conservative majority of 10-20 seats

    Must admit though 7m Postal votes really worries me and i’m in favour of ONLY the infirm and those on holiday (or other very good reasons) can apply for a postal vote.

    :o

  45. The Media Show on R4 was discussing how little influence the newspapers now have on voters but that unfortunately the politicians don’t yet realise it.

  46. @rogerh

    Neil Kinnock?

    (don’t worry – that was a joke)

    Like you I can’t think of anyone who commands broad respect – I think the logic is Cameron does it with LDs supporting on an agreed Queen’s speech with the economy being run mainly through a ‘select committee’

    On PR a referendum on options (which I would expect CON to renege on towards the end of the first year and go to the country)

  47. My prediction for tomorrow night:

    Con 37% – 291 seats
    Lab 28% – 238 seats
    LD 26% – 90 seats

  48. Whatever they say in public I can’t see the LibDems not being bought by a guarantee on electoral reform. Even AV would give them more seats (perhaps many more if it changed the way people voted).

  49. This is my first post although I have been following the site for a few weeks now.

    Now prompted to respond by the “coalition” posts above.

    I was thinking about this last weekend and came to the following (controversial) idea about what might happen in the case of NOM.

    Brown is PM until he resigns.

    Given that neither Lab or Con wants PR, why not approach the Tories with the following suggestion:

    A Lab/Con “Govt of National Unity” to tackle the economy. The LD’s could join also but wouldn’t be needed so therefore couldn’t demand PR.

    GB to stay on as PM for two years – then resign and recommend to the Queen that DC take over (as leader of the largest single party).

    DC would be Deputy PM and would effectively take a CEO role – managing the day to day business of Govt with a GB/DC selected cabinet which reflected the Con / Lab seat split.

    GB would have two years to play the statesman and strut the world stage looking Prime Ministerial before resigning.

    Those of his ministerial colleagues who survive the election have a chance of keeping office.

    DC and his senior Tories would get a taste of office with the prospect of taking fuller charge after two years (and the choice of when to call the election)

    I’m sure you will all tell me a million reasons why it wouldn’t work (and I can think of several already)

    But is there a better option?

    Potentially a LAB/CON coalition could take the tough decisions required and push them through the Commons (and sell them to the country) without fearing that their party would take all the blame.

    Lab (and GB) would get a stay of execution and while it might well lose the next election it will live to fight another day under FPTP.

    Tories get an immediate share of power and the prospect of more fully taking the reins after two years – and FPTP is retained.

    Clegg would have a difficult choice (if invited to join)

    Stay outside and stay clean during an inevitably messy time versus by staying outside confirming his party as again outside the real power structure and irrelevant again come the next FPTP election.

    It may sound unlikely but GB is a “calculation politician” and both parties (esp the Tories) will be keen to avoid PR

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