ITV Wales have a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in Wales. Topline figures are CON 27%(+4), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 23%(-6), PC 10%(+1). Changes are from this poll at the height of the Lib Dem surge, hence the large falling back. Fieldwork was done yesterday and today.

This works out as a swing of 6.7% from Labour to the Conservatives in Wales, larger than in most GB polls. If repeated at the general election on Thursday then on a uniform swing across Wales the Conservatives would gain four seats (Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) and Plaid Cymru would gain two (Ynys Mon and Arfon). Labour would be down 6 and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 4.

12 Responses to “YouGov poll of Wales”

  1. Anthony,

    Is this regional cross break stuff or a specially commissioned poll? I think the latter but it would be nice to know for sure.

  2. I think this shows Lib Dems up and Plaid Cymru down since 2005 – about 4% in each case if I recall. Does anyone have the 2005 figures to hand?

  3. quite surprised at this.

  4. Not sure if this is good or bad. Just surprising.

  5. Presumably Tories suffered most from the LibDem surge which left them 10 points behind Labour, now they are up to within 8. Not a bad poll in the circumstances for the Tories given the swing is 6.7% which perhaps shows just how regionalised this election is going to be. Tories may well get 10% swings in certain seat and only 4% in others. My guess is they will be v close to a majority.

  6. Barry: 2005 results (vote share):

    Labour 42.7%
    Conservatives 21.4%
    Lib Dems 18.4%
    Plaid 12.6%

    So changes today are:

    Labour -7.7
    Con +5.6
    LD +4.6
    Plaid -2.6

  7. Well that is nice to hear that Labour are doing well, let’s hope the rest of the voters do the same.

  8. @All

    Swings are Lab/Con 5.65
    Lab/LD 5.15
    LD/Con 0.5
    Lab/PC 1.55

    Possible seat changes

    Con gains from Lab
    Aberconwy (0.4)
    Cardiff N (1.25)
    Vale of Glamorgan (1.8)
    Carmarthen & S Pembrokshire (2.7)

    LD Gains from Lab
    Possibly Swansea (6.45)

    PC Gains from Lab
    Possibly Arfon (0.4)
    Ynys Mons (1.35)

    Lab gains

  9. We’ve had some pretty extravagant claims from Plaid supporters on some constituency threads. There is little or nothing in this poll, or indeed, previous all-Wales polls to suggest that they can make a major breakthrough in seats even in Welsh-speaking areas such as Aberconwy or Llanelli. Labour would probably not be too unhappy either; if the largest swing to the Tories were to be in Wales, but it’s still under 7%, there would still be only 4 Tory gains from Labour and most people will have written Labour’s chances off in those seats anyway. It suggests Labour holding Vale of Clwyd, and therefore all of the Clwyd seats, as have previous polls. Naturally zealots will continue to claim special circumstances or that Labour is set for total collapse in North Wales/ the Valleys (delete as applicable) but this poll suggests a pretty modest turnover of seats.

  10. Plaid is a bit (a lot) bonkers. Half the pledges on the Plaid leaflet pushed through my letterboxes are things so far outside their remit that Plaid’s policies are them are pointless and they offer no explanation as to how they’d deliver them (eg “We must reduce the deficit” – okay but how do you, Plaid, reckon you’ll do that?)

    Plaid just doesn’t come across as a grown-up political party so it’s unsurprising it’s not doing well.

  11. Plaid have clearly suffered as a result of Cleggmania, but they are clearly focussing their efforts in a few key seats.

    They will clearly hold Meirionydd, Carms East and gain/hold Arfon, and will gain Ynys Mon.

    The big question mark is Ceredigion, which I think is too close to call. On the other hand Plaid do appear to be running away with Llanelli!!

    I expect Plaid to achieve a good second place in Aberconwy, but no cigar. And healthy increases in Neath, Cynon, Cardiff West & Montgomeryshire (!!!).

    Elsewhere, Plaid’s vote will be squeezed

  12. Plaid should take Arfon but there is late Labour support from students and rural incomers. In reality this won’t be enough.
    Ceredigion will stay Liberal with an increased majority; in 2005 both Labour and Conservative votes fell by almost the same amount that Lib/dems increased. It looks like “anyone but Plaid” tactical voting in a county where there has been a massive increase in inward migration from England.
    Ynys Mon should logically fall to Plaid but won’t. albert Owen’s power base in Holyhead stands firm and Dylan Rees is widely held to be an IWJ puppet with no stuffing.
    Plaid are also associated with the deteriorating situation in the Council where they form part of the ruling group. Ynys Mon Council is about to crash and burn in a welter of Fraud claims. Labour are outside the ruling group.