Opinium/Express – 33/28/27
There is an Opinium poll in tomorrow’s express which has topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 27%(-1), with changes from last week. I don’t have figures for others, but presumably they are around 12%. Labour are up by three points, bringing Opinium into line with the sort of figures ICM and YouGov have been showing.
There is also a second poll from the Indian company, RNB Research, who produced a lone GB voting intention poll earlier this year. Their topline figures now are CON 37%, LAB 28%, LDEM 26%. I have scant information on how the poll was done, beyond it being a telephone poll, weighted to GB demographics – the topline figures seem broadly sensible, but without full tables or methodological details, there’s little more I can say.
Feed Opinium figures into seats calculator and Lab is projected as largest party. Will Express readers be appraised of this confusing fact?
@Neil A
In no way is the Western Mail a Labour Leaning paper, if anything it leans towards Plaid Cymru but is broadly independent in it’s editorial view
@ James (great name, btw) – “But David Cameron has ruled out any “deals” with the LibDems so he’d be hoist by his own petard wouldn’t he?”
I wouldn’t set too much store by that. Right now Cameron is going all out to win so he’s not going to want to sound as if he’s expecting defeat. If he needs to do a deal with the Lib Dems once the results are in, then he’ll do a deal.
Tony Dean
“Charlie was MUCH more Left leaning than Clegg”
CK was the best politician of the 20c never to serve in gov.
It is exactly the point I was making
Bearing in mind my speculation about how the parties might fragment and reassemble themselves under PR, perhaps Nick Clegg has had the same thought and suspects that his party may one day split in two. Perhaps he’d rather be the leader of the “Free Democrat” part of it (natural Tory allies, occasionally dealing with the Left) rather than the “Social Democrat” part of it (natural Labour allies, occasionally dealing with the Right).
It seems Libs will take 10 seats from the Tories:
Harborough
Guildford
Ludlow
Worcestershire West
Eastbourne
Totnes
Weston-Super-Mare
Dorset North
Dorset West
Devon West and Torridge
@Tony Dean
Not true about Clegg in Sheffield. His seat used to be solid Tory, and he has greatly benefited from massive Labour tactical voting in the past couple of elections. In fact, in 1992 *Labour* had hopes of taking Sheffield Hallam.
@Eoin,
Guess you didn’t listen to Clegg at the Methodist Central Hall today where he gave a very solid, if popularised version, of why he is a Liberal and what it means to be a Liberal.
James
Yes, I think if Labour got the largest number of seats then Clegg, in spite of favouring PR, might well be prepared to work with Labour – if they offered PR – but would they? Not surprising they are all hedging pending the result.
James,
Do you think that Labour would give up the chance of ever having a majority again and losing a huge chunk of seats (and, for many of them, their jobs) just to keep the Tories out? Especially for a parliament where being in government is going to be hell?
Though rational expectations isn’t always a good theoretical assumption, it tends to be when politicians are involved. It is not in the rational self-interest of the parliamentary Labour party to introduce PR.
Labour might back AV, but then again it would be foolish of the Lib Dems to allow for such a reform, because AV would kill off PR for a generation. That’s one of the reasons why Labour has become so keen on it: it allows them to seem like reformers yet still hate PR.
One golden rule of politics: politicians, like most people, rarely go out of their way to lose their jobs. I would be surprised if there are a great number of Labour MPs looking to go looking for alternative work.
Vox pop on C4 News asking how someone is voting… Quote – “I’m choosing between LibDem and UKIP”, that oft overlooked swing voter…
@ ROBIN
“Not true about Clegg in Sheffield. His seat used to be solid Tory, and he has greatly benefited from massive Labour tactical voting in the past couple of elections. In fact, in 1992 *Labour* had hopes of taking Sheffield Hallam.”
I leafleted for Labour in Sheffield Hallam in 1992 and NOBODY thought we had any chance whatsoever!! It’s a very different place than when Patnick (Tory MP) had the seat. There used to be Tory posters all over the place. Have seen two this election, and scores of Lib Dem.
Unfortunately a large number of the electorate is disenchanted with what is on offer by the 3 mainstream parties..
In racing terms Clegg was quick out of the stalls but ran on one paced.
As a gambler on the out come its rather frustrating not to see one’s horse show a turn of pace.
Giving Cameron his due he is a class act and well scholled and showing a turn of pace.
The old war horse that is Gordon Brown keeps on hitting all the hurdles but somehow is istill in the race.
As i concluded a couple days ago we are likely to elect a government subject to a Democratic Unionist veto from Belfast. I don’t know where that leaves the Ulster Unionist allies of Mr Cameron.
The only alternative to that would be a grand coalition of all the parties including all the NI partis save the Ulster Unionist against the Conservatives. There is common ground and a moral authority about that.
So now we”ll hear/see the media talking about a ‘Labour revival’ and the ‘Lib-Dem bubble bursting’ – even though, once again, the movement is inside the 3% MOE!!!!
This is why I going off polls – they are affecting the media in a bad way.
Hopefully , just hopefully the winning party will have an overall majority…. anything else just isn’t British.
James Ludlow,
I think that’s a good point. While it’s in Labour’s self-interest to prevent PR being introduced at almost any cost, it’s in David Cameron’s self-interest to get into government at almost any cost. Cameron almost certainly won’t be any keener on PR than Brown, but he could be facing a challenge to his leadership if he doesn’t deliver at LEAST a coalition government to the Conservative MPs.
Labour can come back in 2014/2015. Based on what happened to Michael Howard and Neil Kinnock, Cameron probably can’t.
@Yakobs
Blair promised Ashdown PR but couldn’t deliver because his cabinet wouldn’t support him. I think Brown at the time was anti. The Jenkins’ reforms were kicked into touch. All of a sudden he’s dangling a referendum. Excuse me if this note appears a tad cynical.
@ fjezierski:Will Express readers be appraised of this confusing fact?
Of course not! it will be spun as “Cameron on his way to Downing Street”. Facts are seemingly utterly irrelevant to our gentlemen of the “free” press!
Jay:
That’s heading towards “Who’s your favourite historical leader” and saying that it’s a toss up between Genghis Khan and Ghandi.
Latest YouGov / Sun poll: Con: 35; Lib Dem: 28; Lab: 28. Fieldwork 2-3 May 2010; sample 1,455
From the Sun:
Tonight’s YouGov poll for The Sun. Cons 35% (up 1) Lab 28% (n/c) Lib Dems 28% (down 1) Others 9% (n/c)
Latest YouGov / Sun poll: Con: 35; Lib Dem: 28; Lab: 28. Fieldwork 2-3 May 2010; sample 1,455
So it’s not just shifting is it,, within MoE
@XIBY
What have you based your list of LibDem gains from Tory on?
Thanks
@Chris D
I also leafleted in Hallam in 92! I also spent all election day in Broomhill and later on in Low Edges, running numbers and getting out the vote. I agree it was somewhat ambitious, but had the trend in the national polls stood up it was not impossible.
Steady as she goes… no shifts.
YouGov 35/28/28
What does the 10% others cascade into seats and where? Are there seats where the others could go and make enough for either Main Party to form a Government in coalition without either of the other main parties. This is something that we should all know before election day PLEASE – most of us are so confused by all three leaders saying they will win outright – so come on papers – tell us which constituencies could tactically vote to change our future from the main party X Factor gameshow farce.
YG almost identical to 24th April (35/27/28)
As a red supporter I feared the worst hearing Crick’s rumour. That’s just all in the same porridgey area of late.
Ho hum.
@ Bill Patrick: Labour might back AV, but then again it would be foolish of the Lib Dems to allow for such a reform, because AV would kill off PR for a generation.
In pure self interest not foolish at all. AV is more likely at a sooner date to produce a LD majority govt than any form of PR. Although the LDs (Libs) have been committed to PR since the 1920s, given their current support it is actually becoming very marginal as to whether AV or PR would be better for them viz as soon as they get into second place to any incumbent who has less than 50%, they will probably take the seat on redistributed votes!
@Xiby
If we accept your list of 10 Lib gains from the Cons, have you worked out how many gains (if any) the Cons will gain off the Libs?
Sky has commented that Labour are absolutely stuck on 28% – and practically every recent poll has put them on that. So presumably Labour will poll either 35% or 21% on the night.
Very relieved at YouGov, I was sweating on a further narrowing!
Still, as with last night, all withing margin of error.
Seems to me that Conservative lead is 5-6%, which should mean most seats, but probably not a majority.
As many have stated, there is going to be some unusual things on a seat by seat basis given the Lib Dem surge and individual reaction to expense claims.
Xiby
I am adjacent to Guildford and am of the view that their popular MP I forget her name doesn’t have a 2nd home in London, takes the train to London with all the other commuters,and is one of the very few untouched by the expenses scandals should survive. Sizable Universty vote I know my daughter goes there but not a certainty as a Lib Dem gain.
I think there may well be a lot of local conditions this time around affecting lots of seats against the trendline.
In the week following the first debate the Liberal Democrats led in 6 polls.
In the week following the second debate the Liberal Democrats were second in most polls
In the week following the third debate the Liberal Democrats are no longer in second place
Tony Dean,
Do you have the figures for AV possibly leading to a Lib Dem majority?
yougov’s consistency suggests to me that it has a reliablity unmatched by any other polling organisation.
Whilst other polls swing to and fro between extremes, yougov shows a very steady 34+/-1 28+/-1 29+/-1.
I suspect that’s close to how it will end.
Just a comment on Jay Blanc’s post; I’m a UKIP supporter who lives in a safe Conservative seat; if I want to see my party get representation in the Commons, a vote for the Liberals might just help: at the worst, it will make no difference at all – which is the whole point of supporting electoral change. I would like everyone’s vote to count, not just the votes of people in the marginal seats.
What time roughly is ComRes usually declared?
Thanks.
Libs will most prob gain the following from Lab:
Oxford East
Watford
Durham, City of
Bradford North
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Leicester South
Islington South & Finsbury
Blaydon
Derby South
Norwich South
Liverpool, Wavertree
Burnley
Edinburgh South
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Swansea West
Birmingham, Perry Barr
Birmingham, Ladywood
The following Lab Lib marginals are too close to call:
Aberdeen South
Hartlepool
Edinburgh North and Leith
Sheffield, Central
Manchester, Gorton
Huddersfield
Liverpool, Garston
Sheffield, Hillsborough
Holborn & St Pancras
Hull North
I can’t see Cons winning any Lib seats but will look into it
Nothing has happened, nothing is going to happen.
All we’ll get is MoE movements between now & the exit polls.
We can all just chat amongst ourselves for the next day or two
All these shifts including, the Lab-Con marginals I listed yesterday are in accordance with YouGov polls up to the 30th April.
‘@Amber Star
I thought some of us already were !
The ash cloud is coming south again. Who would bet against another airspace shutdown on election day? It’s certainly not a typical GE for sure.
@Xiby,
In terms of Cons from Libs, you need to look at Solihull right next to me. It was held by Cons for 80 years, before a huge shock in 2005 saw a 10% swing and Lib Dems took by 200 votes. Small boundary changes have made it a nominal Con seat, but it is absolutely neck and neck. Its a very affluent commuter town if you don’t know the area. Nobody here can predict it, and even betfair has it almost split odds.
I live in the seat right next door, which is Meriden, made up of some of Solihull’s surrounding villages amongst other things. It is very safe Con.
Rich
So YouGov basically no change and so everyone relaxes again………..then along will come Comres later with something ridiculous like a 20% Tory lead and all hell will break loose again! Roll on Friday, it’s all getting too much for me.
@ Bill Patrick
No. On historic levels they have polled (ie under 30%) they would undoubtedly do better under PR. However, I suspect near or over 30% in an anti-Con swing year they could get near to an absolute majority – in that scenario the Conservatives would be very vulnerable to virtual wipeout. Once Thursday is over I will sit down and work out constituency by constituency what would have been the likely effect of AV. It is fraut with problems however as there is only limited evidence from Mayoral elections as to the balance of second preferences from any given party’s candidate, and I am unawar if any polling has been done of voter’s second preferences – has there been? One cannot assume 100% of Lab and Cons 2nd preferences going to LDs.
Tony
No reason to suppose Yougov doesn’t do excellent work – but I think, because they do poll every day they tend to perhaps get “the vote” over others who are polling less frequently and therefore showing greater movements. I wouldn’t therefore put their findings ahead of any of the other reputable pollsters.
Just to keep everyone awake the YouGov poll: 35/28/28, given the fact there is a 3% margin of error, could be 32/25/31 or 38/25/25, then add the fact that 30% are undecided, it could be any 3 percentages that you want to make up.
So let’s say LD is not 28, but 31, because of the MOE, then assume 40% of the 30% go for them and your looking at 40.
Now I could have done the same with the other two parties and got them to practically 40%.
So anyone can win with an overall majority regardless to the mainline poll numbers.
And have you seen the news today? Have you seen the crowds that turn up for Clegg?! It’s scary!
Rolling average now shows Lib and Lab dead level. That will take the cherry of an otherwise well iced cake for Clegg.