The final round of Ipsos MORI’s marginal polling for Reuters has been published. These are polls conducted in Labour held marginal seats where the Conservatives need a swing of between 5% and 9% to win – to win on a uniform swing the Conservatives need a swing of about 6.9%, so this sample excludes around about 60+ of the closest Lab-v-Con marginals, and goes up to seats that would grant the Conservatives a pretty substantial majority. To get a majority of 1, the Conservatives would need to win about half these seats, which equates to being neck and neck in voting intention.

The topline figures from MORI today, with changes from last week, are CON 36%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 20%(-1). This represents a slight swing to the Conservatives since a week ago, and with a 7 point swing is just about enough for the Conservatives to get an overall majority on a uniform swing. In practice however, these figures would be unlikely to produce a Tory majority – to win on a 7% swing the Conservatives would also need to gain a substantial number of seats from the Liberal Democrats, and this seems unlikely on present national polling.

There are some interesting findings on tactical voting – MORI asked people if the party they said they were voting for was their first choice, or a tactical choice. 9% said they were voting tactically, a figure which has not risen during the election campaign – despite the widespread and intuitive belief that people make such tactical decisions during the campaign, MORI are not picking it up (or at least, not yet). MORI went on to ask them which party would have been their first choice – there were more people who said their first choice would have been the Lib Dems voting Labour tactically than there were voting Conservative tactically, but the sample sizes are so minute I would not put any weight on it.

Finally, unlike previous waves of the study MORI excluded people who said they were not registered to vote. 5% of the sample said they weren’t – I can’t see the question in the full tables so I can’t tell if these were people who gave voting intentions and were excluded, people who said they were unlikely to vote, or whether MORI asked about registration first and didn’t ask unregistered people further voting questions.

UPDATE: Bob Worcester has answered that final question. People were asked if they were registered to vote first, and not asked further questions if they weren’t – so we don’t know what answers they would have given.

NB – If there is heavy traffic tonight and the site gets too slow I’ll be switching comments off during “rush hour” everything is cross-posted to the backup blog at http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com where comments will remain open.


166 Responses to “Ipsos MORI show 7% swing in Lab-v-Con marginals”

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  1. Pam F

    Your post re Tim Montgomerie are the instant polling results from the 3rd leaders debate.

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  2. Just seen DC on Sky at Feltham and Heston – But i cant find this on the top C target list. Does any one know what number C target seat this would be? BBC have 2005 notional vote share of 48.1 Lab 28.8 Con I would have thought it would be a long way down the list – so why would DC be there?

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  3. @ Its My Money

    Perhaps because he opposes the 3rd Heathrow runway? though they’re south of the airport in Feltham voters may have sympathies with those potentially affected ?

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  4. Sky just giving a much more positive, objective and long appraisal of GB’s speech in London, included the nuclear campaigner but only momentarily in a reasonably long piece. Perhaps they’re reading UKPR ? ;)

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  5. @Mike P
    As I will continue to say until I am blue in the face, John Riley the editor of SkyNews is one of the most fair minded people I have ever met. He is big on impartiality.
    If there is evidence of a swing back to Labour, Sky will report it.

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  6. Twitter rumour that ComRes is good news for red tonight.

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  7. Does anybody know if Sky is planning to do an interview with GB/NC also?

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  8. RAF – I actually think SKY news have been quite good lately. I think they’ve been fairer than the Beeb

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  9. Apparently MORI have now confirmed that this marginal poll doesnt include Con?LD seats, so may not even indicate Con as largest party.

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  10. @Its My Money

    Sitting Labour MP seriously tainted by expenses scandal – my guess is they’ve had some interesting canvassing returns and between that and the LD surge, both nationally and with a pretty strong local candidate, a DC visit is worth it so they’re not left thinking “what if….” at the end of it all!

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  11. @BAZZA

    Previous ComRes poll had 10 point lead for Con so even a 3 point “surge” for Labour would probably just be a correction.

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  12. @ NBWNI
    @ BAZZA

    There was also a ComRes on the 30th April that didn’t make it into Anthony’s tables, though it featured in comments here, that had a 12-point Tory lead. Perhaps that’s why it was excluded !

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  13. @ Martin F

    Thanks

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  14. POST OF THE DAY goes to NICK OK….

    who wrote this …

    “….. What happens to the Lib Dem vote on the day will be one of the biggest stories of the campaign, and crucial to their future support.

    As we don’t know where the Lib Dem narrative will take us, how strong and reliable their support is, we can go only on what the polls present us with. And so because of this, we have to assume that the Lib Dem surge counterbalances the tory increase in lab/con marginals….”

    BRAVO

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  15. BAZZAA

    you are actually posting a TWITTER rumor about Comres poll?

    has any twitter Rumor in the past 10 days on any polll EVER been correct?

    Just wow….

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  16. @ BAZZA

    “.Twitter rumour that ComRes is good news for red tonight”

    Not what I have heard, i think someones been having you on. My understanding is that its more bad news for the reds.

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