Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LDEM 29% (+1). No significant change from yesterday.

Rather to my surprise, there’s also a new ICM poll in the Guardian. The topline figures there are CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+1). Changes are from the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph – the fieldwork periods actually overlap, the Sunday Telegraph’s fieldwork was all on Friday, this poll’s fieldwork was Friday to Sunday. Others up at the expense of the Conservatives.

That’s two of the polls that showed an increase for the Tories on Saturday reversing it on Monday. It looks like it was co-incidence they all showed Tories rises that day (or perhaps not – bank holiday polling can produce odd samples, and I wouldn’t really want to conclude too much whatever it showed.)

NB: Please bookmark the backup site to UK Polling Report here – http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com – as we get closer to the election I expect the main site to increasingly crumble under the weight of traffic. All posts will be mirrored on the backup site, and at very busy times (especially election night itself) I will close comments on the main site and move discussion over to the backup.


815 Responses to “New ICM and YouGov polls”

1 13 14 15 16 17
  1. Edit: actually it’s no better news for the Tories than for Labour, this is a good poll for the Tories but the system is too complicated to confidently predict a majority of 2

  2. Do we get any national polls today, besides the usual YouGov one?

  3. “Yeah, but that’s a *very* contentious topic, Paul. The animosity between the Acoustic Party supporters and the Electric Coalition is shocking! ”

    I think you guys are forgetting that there are more than 2 parties in the guitar world. What about the Spanish Guitar party?

  4. if both yellows and reds dont hit those marginals and call for an anti tory vote then they are stark raving mad and dont deserve to have a crack at electoral reform

    if they do and the call for tactical voting doesnt work , then thats the will of the people

    but I will be amazed if we dont see this now

    the end result could be a defeated labour party , in 3rd place and a liberal party with no chance of electoral reform for another generation

    the next election will see more of the same posturing by all the people and it just wont wash

    people who want ” real change ” wont care wether clegg is the second party or not

    they will just remember this as a lost opportunity

    time for some behind the scenes lib lab firworks

  5. I suspect the reason some people say this poll is good, is down to the wavering libdem vote in the marginals.

    The problem with that, is firstly, will any of them jump ship and secondly, which way would they go.

    Too much from now till the election depends on swing voters. The tories will hope for momentum, labour will be hoping for an anti-tory vote.

    The only thing we can really be clear of now, is the lib-dems are probably not worrying about their own held marginals, but they will be worried about a tory majority.

    Will they start an attack on tory now, while a slight softening on labour?

  6. Of course the question is of those who will vote (other than the absolutely certain to vote which is discussed), as the polls are so close, it would very useful to know how the ‘probably will vote’ are breaking; is it the same? Or are they more likely to be ‘shy Labour’?

  7. there should be a YOUGOV one tonight

  8. Are we due a ComRes this evening too?

  9. “I suspect the reason some people say this poll is good, is down to the wavering libdem vote in the marginals.
    The problem with that, is firstly, will any of them jump ship and secondly, which way would they go.”

    I refer you to Mori’s analyses of the poll, “Tory and Labour supporters who may change their minds are more likely to switch to the Lib Dems or other smaller parties, rather than switching between the Conservative and Labour parties. In addition, more wavering Lib Dems would support Labour than the Conservatives. ”

    That should answer your question.

  10. @Ben

    “This is a good poll for the tories spin how you like. All i am saying is it could swing further to the tories if there are undecideds. Why does it have to swing one way with certainty?

    May 3rd, 2010 at 3:21 pm”

    On the basis of Xiby’s info, most of the Lib Dem “soft vote” is more likely to move towards Lab than Con. I suspect that this will also be true of UDs.

  11. @Sue @Rob:

    The problem is that the ICM Adjustment made the ICM CLead 3pts away from the WMA, so it looked pretty rogue-ish. Without this adjustment it’s pretty well spot-on.

    I trust data much more than adjusted data and this one seems to me to be based on little if any evidence. Also it’s perfectly obvious that “bigotgate” will have caused lots of Mrs Duffys to abandon GB.

    Let’s see what the next polls show, but I suspect that they will show the un-adjusted ICM to be pretty accurate. Doesn’t alter the WMA (to 1 place of decimals) but does make the underlying trend clearer.

  12. @ALAN PAUL

    if yellow wants ,a chance of electoral reform , then he most certainly HAS to attack BLUE

    if he carries on with his daft jibes at brown , who is already in trouble , I think all he will succeed in doing is putting his party as main opposition ..but still stuck without PR

    might please his party and his MPs ..but not the voters who saw him as a game changer

    its attack on blue form red and attack on blue from yellow

    or the games over , in my opinion

  13. @Xiby

    If that is true xiby, that would mean this poll could have come at a bad time for the tories. If the libdem voters now think the tories will get in, would that push them to vote tactically?

  14. Labour’s Ed Balls asking Labour voters to support Libdem candidates – on BBC news 24

  15. Does the notion of a majority of 2 factor in that the Cons likely now won’t be getting their Lib-Dem targets?

  16. Many non Cons seem now to be pinning their hopes on tactical voting to prevent a Con majority.

    Since it is primarily Lab/Con marginal seats in play the greatest effect in preventing any Con majority will be here, and so the LD voting tactically for Lab will have the greatest effect.

    However much on the new LD support has come from the young previous non voters who have been inspired by Clegg to vote LD. They have not been inspired to vote because of any dislike for DC.

    IMO it seems highly unlikely they will switch their vote from their “inspirational” leader to the uncharismatic and gaff prone GB just to prevent DC becomming PM.

  17. why is the Phillipa Stroud story not being reported on the TV? They couldn’t get enough of Gillian Duffy.

    where is the supposed balance they have to show this time around??

  18. Colin Wobbles

    “But am I the only one sensing a slight shift away from the Tories”
    The Mori Marginals poll suggests an additional 1.5%
    swing from Labour to Tories over past week.

    Yes there are a few bad news stories for the Tories but there are several about Labour & the Lib Dems as well:-
    e.g. Harriet Harman was accused of ‘hypocrisy’ yesterday for attacking Tory plans to cut inheritance tax although her own family exploited loopholes to shelter their fortune from the levy.

    e.g. the new publicity given to fact Alastair Darling has had to stand down from the Scottish Bar because of his flipping.

  19. @ WANDERING WELSHMAN

    Agree with you – If Labour & LD/LAB coalition activists do not hit the streets & local press in these marginal seats, then UK Plc will have made their choice.

    1. FPTP elections.
    2. Idealogical (?) Public spending cuts, rather than pragmatic, minimum necessary cuts.
    3. Impact on employment of small state policies.
    4. Business tax cuts more important than the impact of income or VAT tax on individuals.

    All valid choices, I hasten to add.

    But those who disagree with 1. to 4. will simply have to ‘suck it up’ & perhaps regret a missed opportunity….

  20. @Rowan

    I think it does

    but it can only be made more cast iron if other such polls, including ones focusing on lib con marginals , are held

  21. It’s being reported that the Mori Poll would result in a narrow Conservative majority of 2 but this is somewhat speculative. In these 57 Labour/Con marginals Conservatives polled 36% (up 1 on last week) Labour also 36 (down 2) and Liberal Democrats 20 (down 1).

  22. “But those who disagree with 1. to 4. will simply have to ’suck it up’ & perhaps regret a missed opportunity….”

    Package-deal fallacy there?

  23. @Ben
    PeterBell has put you right about today’s IPSOS/MORI.
    I am sure you will also welcome this quote from the previous IPSOS/MORI marginals poll:-

    ”Of Liberal Democrats who might change their minds, more think it would be to vote Labour (52%) than Conservative (33%), potentially strengthening Labour’s lead here.”

  24. @WanderingWelshman,

    I expect to see tactical voting well down on previous elections. The reason for this is the rise in the Lib Dem support. That’s my gut feeling, but of course I could be wrong.

    rich

  25. @ Nbeale

    “I trust data much more than adjusted data and this one seems to me to be based on little if any evidence.”

    I have been following your WMA averages with interest. However, surely you have to either use raw data or the adjusted data to reach your averages? It appears to be “cherry-picking” if you chop and change between the two.

  26. STEVE

    Get real !

    I could list a dozen stories about Labour & LibDem sleaze that have not being reported on TV but will not do so because that is not the purpose of Anthony’s blog.

  27. @Richard O

    Ref Tactical voting

    see my post at 3.37 hrs

  28. @ Xiby

    Do we have polling dates on the Ipsos/MORI? I ask because the last one had 23-26th for a release date of 29th April.

    Also does anyone know if there’s a YouGov regional breakdown for 26/4 to 2/5 published today? Nothing on Politics Home yet.

  29. “More than a third (36%) say they may change their vote. Lib Dem support is softest of all at 48%. More wavering Lib Dems would support Labour over the Conservatives.”

    Is this the last hope for a Lib/Lab coalition?

    Labour need to play on this.

  30. @ MIKE

    I haven’t seen anything about Alistair Darling – except good things e.g. the City much prefer him to Osborne (Daily Telegraph article)

  31. WanderingWelshman

    Yes there may be some calls for tactical voting but both Labour & the LibDems are keen to get the 2nd largest share of the popular vote and could prejudice this if they ask their supporters to vote for the other party.

  32. @john flethcher

    You have the wrong person i’m afraid.I’ve been predicting a Tory majority from the start.However, the thought that the Tories might win will ensure wavering Labour voters, tactical Lib Dems and many undecideds will now have pause to think.It’s no longer about people assuming there will be a hung parliament.

  33. @AMBER STAR

    its clear that the best hope has become an attempt to prevent an outright tory majority

    those behind the scenes , the party leaders , might not want this

    after all clegg will have done a good job if he increas the liberal seats a few nothces ..and hailed a hero in the party if he pushes labour into place

    but hes talked the talk and clearly now the rest of the population who want PR wont care aboutb how may seats he has if he doesnt deliver

    and to deliver hes now going to have to get real about where he stands

  34. @yozza

    I humbly withdraw :D

  35. Re field dates for MORI marginals ; 30th April – 2nd May

  36. @ Rowan, WWelshman

    Does the notion of a majority of 2 factor in that the Cons likely now won’t be getting their Lib-Dem targets?

    No it doesn’t. viz – “This is a 7% swing to the Conservatives since 2005 and would just get the Tories enough seats for a majority – in theory – but given that they are more likely to lose seats to Lib Dems than gain from them, they probably need more than 7% now.”
    from the Reuters poll summary.

  37. @RICHARD O

    I tend to agree

    but there is clearly going to be some of it about ..pushed either behind the scenes from the spinners ..or open ..like ed balls today on news 24

  38. I am always very cautious re polls of marginals. Their tracg record is far from good. I remember eve of poll in 1987 commentators were saying that whilst the Tories were well ahead nationally polling data from the marginals suggested Labour had a real chance of making sufficient gains to bring about a Hung Parliament. It turned out to be nonsense – the Tories won a majority of 102!
    For some reason the pollsters seem to have found it much more difficult to put together representative samples in such seats as compared with national surveys.

  39. Is there the list of the 57 seats polled by Mori?

    It makes a huge difference if they are all seats which where considered strict marginals or if they include a number of what one would have considered more Lab safe seats. Seeing as the swing is higher in these seats then the national swing, then they are obviously offset somewhere else. Thus it would mean that if the swing is higher in proper marginals that would mean that it is lower in some safe Lab seat Tories have to win to get a majority.

  40. Keith
    Labour’s Ed Balls asking Labour voters to support Libdem candidates – on BBC news 24
    ************************************************
    That looked desperate to me, but I suppose you never know. Can’t see the voters falling for this though.

    Regardless of my political affiliations, I think in a democracy, people should vote for the party that most closely matches their views, rather than been instructed who to vote for by ministers who only have their own fate in mind.

  41. @ Amber

    But those who disagree with 1. to 4. will simply have to ’suck it up’ & perhaps regret a missed opportunity….

    Sounds like there could be an opportunity here to produce some kind of anti-Tory corsetry after the election! Perhaps this is the way to make my fortune…. Wanna buy one? :-)

  42. We don’t have very much data on Tory-LibDem marginals. Of the two recent polls that looked at them, one said the Tories could lose 16 seats, the other said there’d be no change.

    We can speculate all day about which is right. All we can really say is that in the Labour marginals the Tories (on MORI’s figures) are just about on course. We don’t know if they are doing well enough in the LibDem seats for this to mean a majority or not.

    Overall its just more evidence that the result is looking like Tories largest party, with the big questions whether the LibDem / Labour total is enough to form an anti-Tory pact or whether the Conservative total is enough to get them into government either with unionist support or on their own.

  43. @ WANDERING WELSHMAN

    Apparently Ed Balls is asking LAB voters in CON/LD marginals to consider TV in favour of LD.

    Will a ranking LD politician soon be making a similar suggestion to LD voters in LAB/CON marginals?

  44. @Amber,

    It’s much riskier for the LibDems to say that than for Labour. There is a danger of reigniting the “vote Clegg get Brown” narrative, which I believe was quite successful last time (so successful that it provoked a pretty hefty volte face from Clegg).

  45. @AmberStar,

    I bet he doesn’t advocate tactical voting by Lib Dems for Cons in his seat?!?!

    rich

  46. Polls only tell 1 part of the story. Looking at the LDs: clearly, whatever total share of the vote they end up with (and my vote is still min 28%) you need to factor in work on the ground. So good incumbant LD MPs and strong campaigns in target and development seats mean you get an additional spike in support (what I have termed surge PLUS). SO say that is the seats they hold plus another 100. You would anticipate the LDs hold most of the 62 they have and picking up some of the others in the 100 targets/development seats. In those areas where there is no real presence LD get less. It stands to reason if you think about it a bit because a uniform spread of votes of around 28% yields no seats. So you then have to ask yourself what is it about those constituencies in terms of demographics (social and political), issues and bodies on the ground that makes the difference? I don’t think any of the polls can cater for that these days.

  47. re MORI poll being discussed
    -I just logged on and I can’t find the MORI poll.
    -Please tell me where I can find it.

  48. @Woodsman

    So did this survey only do Lab/Con marginals and the 2 seats thing just assumes that this 7% can be projected onto Lib/Con marginals?

  49. @ WOODSMAN

    ROFLOL 8-)

    I live in Scotland, so I’m hoping I already have my Anti-Tory corset.

    I would, however, buy some for my friends in England ;-)

  50. @Rowan,

    I honestly don’t know but I think its more likely that the poll assumes “no change” in Tory-Libdem seats. In other words, majority of 2 if the Tories don’t lose any to LibDem.

1 13 14 15 16 17