Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LDEM 29% (+1). No significant change from yesterday.

Rather to my surprise, there’s also a new ICM poll in the Guardian. The topline figures there are CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+1). Changes are from the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph – the fieldwork periods actually overlap, the Sunday Telegraph’s fieldwork was all on Friday, this poll’s fieldwork was Friday to Sunday. Others up at the expense of the Conservatives.

That’s two of the polls that showed an increase for the Tories on Saturday reversing it on Monday. It looks like it was co-incidence they all showed Tories rises that day (or perhaps not – bank holiday polling can produce odd samples, and I wouldn’t really want to conclude too much whatever it showed.)

NB: Please bookmark the backup site to UK Polling Report here – http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com – as we get closer to the election I expect the main site to increasingly crumble under the weight of traffic. All posts will be mirrored on the backup site, and at very busy times (especially election night itself) I will close comments on the main site and move discussion over to the backup.


815 Responses to “New ICM and YouGov polls”

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  1. @JACK
    “Must admit who would have thought it at this stage two months ago? Labour should have been sitting ducks and Tories should have been in by a mile–but seriously it’s coalition time and Labour and Liberals have shown they can do it Scotland…”

    Jack – do you really think a Lib/Lab coalition will be good for the Lib Dems in the long run, if there is no PR in place for the subsequent General Election? It will be an unmitigated disaster for Nick Clegg if he keeps Labour in power and doesn’t get PR in place.

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  2. Wish we could lay our hands on a LibDem/Conservative marginal poll. For the first time in years something very significant will be going on there.

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  3. @statto

    The line in question from their release is:

    “The last of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos MORI’s new poll for Reuters points suggests that the Conservatives are inching towards a majority with a 7% swing from 2005 in these key battleground constituencies.”

    They add caveats about the Lib Dem rise and MOE making this unlikely, but it’s still shaky analysis. Any idiot can tell by looking at their figures that they don’t indicate a majority, so why mention it unless you’re looking for headlines?

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  4. Statto and Everyone

    I assume analysis is by Jodie Ginsberg, who seems to one of Reuter’s London journalists. MORI seems to be innocent in this case. :)

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  5. @Eoin

    I’m happy to stick to my prediction of at least 31 for the LibDems (say, 32). We’ll see which is closer to the actual result – your 22 or my 32.

    :-)

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  6. Jack Jones et al

    This is the biggest opportunity the LDs will perhaps ever have to participate in gov. They cannot simply say “we can wait until the next GE as we will do even better then”. Politics does not work like that.

    NC and the LDs must take this opportunity, IMO

    A L/LD coalition would work on the basis that there is a formal agreement that there would be at least a referendum on electoral reform. Lab offers this, the Cons don’t.

    I have repeatedly said that this GE is dangerous for the LDs. If there is not a HP there will be recriminations, IMO.

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  7. Don’t feed the trolls

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  8. Opinium – Express

    con 33

    lab 28

    lib 27

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  9. I think people are getting a bit carried away. This latest Mori polls is only a 1000 sample in 57 Lab-Con marginal consituencies. The Labs and Cons are tied at the same percentage.

    I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen in these constiuencies. I am sure the Tories will win some of these, but we could be talking about there being just a few hundred votes in it.

    Don’t dismiss people making tactical votes and there being local issues. Some candidates are more popular than their parties.

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  10. @Eoin et al.
    You can happily post my consistent prediction of a min 28% share of the vote for LDs. I’m not bothered if I’m proved wrong as my ego can stand it (I don’t have one).

    If cheers and claps are anything to go by Clegg got a better reception at the UK Citizens Assembly than Cameron (BBC said rapturous applause at one point)

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  11. -It is not that I doubt the polling MORI did.
    -The problem with their data lies with the polling they did not do.
    -Polling in the marginals ;LAB is DEFENDING and not polling in the marginals CON and LIB DEM are DEFENDING gives a distorted result
    -There is no way to determine LAB or LIB DEMS gains
    which would obviously change the results of the poll.
    -Further, there is no way to determine CON or LIB DEM losses with this poll. (nor LAB losses to LIB DEMS for that matter)

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  12. I don’t see that you can read anything into the small drop in LibDem support in these Con/Lab marginals. It could simply reflect more awareness that the LibDems are not in contention in those seats. I doubt I’d vote LibDem if I lived in one of them.

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  13. @Theresa,

    In fairness to the pollsters, there isn’t much point in polling the seats Tories are defending from Labour. On any calculation the Labour vote has dropped so far that there is virtually no chance of any of those seats changing hands.

    It’s a feature of the UK system that you can fairly accurately predict which seats are going to decide the election.

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  14. I think the media is in complete denial about its own withering influence. We’ve seen again and again and again in recent times the media targeting someone (it has to be said, usually Brown, but it applied to scenarios outside of politics also) full-force for it to have no effect whatsoever, or even invoking a backlash. I haven’t seen Sky news today, so I can’t say if the news coverage is biased or whatever. To be honest, in this context I don’t think it matters. If the media continues to herald Cameron the winner, to pump up the idea of a Conservative surge, it will backfrire. I’m surprised they haven’t learnt this yet!

    I really believe the internet has changed things in ways we are still not fully conscious of. It’s my personal opinion that this election result will be determined not by the expenses scandal, not by the recession, but by the internet (of course I do think those factors come into play). Hurrah for democracy and freedom from the press! Well, maybe, almost…

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  15. I agree

    time for yellow and red to cobble together

    otherwise they may as well just get back to shouting across the dispatch box

    and tahts not going to get them anywhere

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