Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LDEM 29% (+1). No significant change from yesterday.

Rather to my surprise, there’s also a new ICM poll in the Guardian. The topline figures there are CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+1). Changes are from the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph – the fieldwork periods actually overlap, the Sunday Telegraph’s fieldwork was all on Friday, this poll’s fieldwork was Friday to Sunday. Others up at the expense of the Conservatives.

That’s two of the polls that showed an increase for the Tories on Saturday reversing it on Monday. It looks like it was co-incidence they all showed Tories rises that day (or perhaps not – bank holiday polling can produce odd samples, and I wouldn’t really want to conclude too much whatever it showed.)

NB: Please bookmark the backup site to UK Polling Report here – http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com – as we get closer to the election I expect the main site to increasingly crumble under the weight of traffic. All posts will be mirrored on the backup site, and at very busy times (especially election night itself) I will close comments on the main site and move discussion over to the backup.


815 Responses to “New ICM and YouGov polls”

1 2 3 17
  1. well, seems to suggest more of the same, considering MOE

    LDs must be pleased they are not at teh bottom end , CON worried they’re not at the top end and LAB pretty happy they are in there fighting

    All to play for as the pundit’s favourite football cliche goes

  2. Those last two ComRes polls are looking increasingly out of place. Unless they know something the other pollsters don’t…

  3. I said that it was unlikely that the Cons were more than 35!

  4. As an LD voter I am pleased to see that they do not after all appear to be on a slide.

    Indeed, the most interesting thing about the polls at the moment is their static nature. Neither the third debate, flockgate, change of newspaper allegiance or “momentum” seem to be having any effect.

    It looks as though the only issues left are who comes third in the vote and who has the largest number of seats in a hung parliament. The possibility of any party getting an overall majority now would appear to be near to zero.

  5. Weekend polls are usually a couple of points down for the Cons.

  6. all to play for….. as in who gets the biggest seats in a hung parliament

    I think the liberal and labour vote has become very solid and at those levels ..28 , 29 , 27 either way ..its not going to help out cameron in any way

    tory central not happy about these polls at all ..given the so called drift and the lack of a fall away in eitehr libs from late twenties ..or labour ..despite duffygate

  7. The country wants a hung parliament, Mr Cameron. If these polls are representative, and they have been consistent.

  8. @NBWNI

    Can you honestly not see the multiple structural differences between Greece (or indeed Spain) and the UK? If not, you are not looking hard enough. Some serious analysis please!

  9. @Gary
    ‘So, broadly, does this mean we are back where we were before the last debate and Mrs Duffy?’

    No we are back to where we were before the *reporting by a right wing news media* of…………

    Someone tried to say that BH weekend would have an adverse effect on Con but before anyone repeats that, the two polling organisations are reputable and sample carefully. In other words, if only Tories go away to the seaside then their comrades who don’t are just as valid.

  10. Just within the normal margin of error, as most of the Labour supporters were rightly claiming about last night’s polls. Nothing statistically significant here.

  11. I’m surprised and delighted at this bad poll for the tories.

    I expected the tories to be on 38 and with a ten point lead.

    Maybe the Bank Holiday syndrome explains this and the tory surge Im expecting in the last days will start tomorrow night.

    At least I can go to bed happy tonight……..

  12. YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LDEM 29% (+1)

    how many seats ?

    sky news: Britain ‘Still On Course For Hung Parliament’

  13. DAve
    BH aberrations

    You clearly did not read my post but if I am wrong, I am sure AW will leap to inform us!

  14. I’m so glad I have Friday off work – I think we may be in for a very long night.

    I’m just excited at the idea of an election night when we truly don’t know who will win.

  15. Sky News – UK still on course for a hung parliament.

    Sky must’ve realised that declaring a CON victory yesterday was a mistake – & that it would send LAB & LD voters into a tactical voting frenzy ;-)

  16. Howard

    I did read your post and I do accept that this may just be a bank holiday delay in what I was expecting to happen in the last ten years.

    If there is not a 10 point tory lead by Tuesday or Wednesday however with the tories on 38 then I would be a very happy man and if the tories continue on polls of 33 and 34 -which I doubt – Cameron will look very foolish indeed…..

  17. Middle England away for Bank holiday.

  18. Looking good for the Tories tonight.

    GB’s minders looked totally thugish yesterday.

    People don’t like bullies

    They really are ‘ the natural party of Govt in these Islands’

    LD support falling here in S West

  19. AMBER STAR:
    I was thinking the same thing yesterday

  20. sky news

    have spent all evening saying brown looks tired

    now tonight a political editor has just said that the tories will not be happy with these polls

    and of course he is right

    those in central office will not be happy at all after seeing a rise tthen a fall

    yougov IS well respected

    and it fails to show ..most importantly in my view …a fall in both labour and liberal support

    this is the key here

    and the conservatives know that

    have sky added these polls to the poll of polls ?

    be a little naughty of them not to ..

  21. There have been Bank Holiday polls in several of the recent GEs 1979, 2005 are two immediate examples which spring to mind. I do not recall if there was a May 29 BH in 1997 but the point stands.

    ICM and YG showed precious little deviation over those BHs historically.

    I think what we are seeing is what I spent an hour this morning explaining. The last few days see a pronouced convergence which produces a trend towards the eventual outcome.

    It is clear for all to see that the big two ICM and YG are showing a pronounced tightening between the red and blue share.

    On these results the lead is 5.5%.

    with Monday, Tuesdau and Wednesday still to come… can 5.5% become circa 2%?

    You bet your bottom dollar it can.

  22. YouGov poll CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LDEM 29% (+1)

    BBC projects

    CON 264 LAB 267 LD 90 Others 29

  23. Re any BH effect. Worth pointing out that the early May BH is more like a normal w/e than other BHs – it’s the only BH not in school holidays and I surmise people go away far less. This could be compounded by the poor weather.

    (I did read once that people who visit garden centres tend to be Conservative.)

    However, am I also right in thinking that there is a (small) general w/e effect?

  24. Well, that really does surprise me. I thought that was it for both Labour and the Lib Dems. I’m amazed to see them, at the very least, maintaining their positions, possibly even gaining, while the Tories are struggling to even hold mid-30s.

    I was certain the Lib Dem bubble was bursting. If even after all the bad press and distance from the first debate, they are still holding on, then I would say the dynamics of this election are going to remain fraught until polling day itself.

  25. Totally unscientific but we had to drive to Shropshire today – a 2 hour journey through three counties. Saw lots of Conservative posters, lots of Lib Dem posters, and a single (but very large!) UKIP display. Not one Labour poster anywhere.

    Major rural/semi-rural divide with urbania?

  26. Mark – “LD support falling here in S West”

    Where can I find details?

  27. “Middle England away for Bank holiday.”

    I’m sure that the people polled still have to fulfill certain characteristics that are representative of the general UK voting population. Therefore, it should have little/any effect.

  28. Mark
    “People dont like bullies”

    There is a very good article in the Observer today which suggests that that if anyone in this election is being bullied it is Gordon Brown, and that might be creating a sympathy vote for him. The constant abuse, often of a very unpleasant personal nature, the constant baiting of him by the media night be counterproductive.

  29. @mark

    I dont know what polls you have looked at tonight on this site , a polling site

    but they dont look very good for the tories

    I wouldnt worry too much about the press and tv negativity ..after duffygate ..it appears labour vote is sticking with the party

  30. MATT – Except it does have an effect.
    Remember the Populus on the bank holiday before the 2005 election – it put Labour 14 points ahead. At the end of the week, they won – with 3!

  31. The polls seem to me to pointing a GE result of Cons 35 Lab 26 Lib Dems 31.

  32. @ Roland Haines (earlier thread)

    Would these polls reflect the greasy pole you were referring to earlier when you were expounding your theory of winning? Sadly your theory spent too much time analysing the ‘losing’ side of the ‘greasy pole’ rather than the winning side. But then, I s’pect winning was the wrong adjective?

  33. After Cleggmania and after the coronation of Cameron yesterday, is there any chance the media narrative might shift to ‘Brown could still win?’

  34. @ Barry.

    It was in the Mail on Sunday.

    PS- why are some columnists suggesting that the Tory Party
    is anti gay tonight.

    There are many gay people in the Party

  35. Twice in the last 2 days I’ve heard “The lowest Labour poll in the week before the election is what happens on the day”. Is there any truth in this old wives’ tail?

  36. I also think Mrs Duffy -“traditional Labour supporter” made a huge mistake in giving her story to the Dail Mail.

  37. The problem within the BH theory is that as Eoin points out there is little evidence for it. For it to work, one has to believe that Tories who mow the lawn are somehow switching (3 in a hundred, wow!) to somewhere else unlike those who went down to the second home.

    How ridiculous.

  38. @ Eoin

    I think I’m ‘in love’ – well done Eoin, your earlier level of confidence (100%) seems to have been well placed x .

  39. I can show that in every election since 1970, there has been a final few days correction in the polls. Without this correction the polls would have been less accurate. The correction usually ranged from anything between 3-5% (on occasion it has been higher).

    We will witness a correction in these polls, just as we have always done.

    It would appear that this correction is taking the trend away from the tories.

    If these were Harris’ or Opinium’s I would not be arguing this. It is entirely down to the fact that ICM and YG are shwoing it.

  40. Dave
    I don’t read the Mail. Could you summarise why it was a big mistake?

  41. As a Tory, I’m happy with the polls going into the last few days. With the marginal and regional swing, we would still be the largest party with enough probably to rule as a minority government.

    The Tory vote has increased in the last week and a half (as has the lead over Labour) and will continue to do so.

  42. @WanderingWelshman.

    The Labour Party machine & Cabinet is a gang of bullies.

    I would rather believe Clare Short version of events than anything the Cabinet say on Iraq although they have tried to smear her as they did with Mrs Duffy & Dr Kelly

  43. @Sallyc

    please do not refer to under par pollsters. What did YouGov give it then?

    YouGov/Telegraph 01/05/05 33 36 24 -3

    Enough said.

  44. Anthony Wells,

    Angus Reid latest poll has not been add to the list of polls in column on right.

  45. If anyone wished to view the 1983 and 1987 opinion poll graphs wikipedia the elections and scroll down the page…..

    you will see what I mean by the final few days correcting the trend…..

  46. Been out campaigning today in Carshalton & Wallington – a Conservative target to take from Lib Dems. Am increasingly confident that Tories are not going to break through here.

    The amount of extra ‘activism’ and ‘feet on the ground’ that the Clegg effect generated in the first weeks of the campaign has made it feel more like a by-election campaign than a standard General Election.

    The campaign office has been a real beehive of activity. If the effect has been repeated in other Lib Dem seats and targets then I would expect a few surprises as the results start coming in.

    At the start of the campaign with Lib Dems on around 17/18% I was hopeful that the party could reach 23/24% by polling day – and was fearful that an unwinding of tactical voting in Tory/Lib contests could actually cost the Lib Dems seats.

    However that does not appear to be happening. The fact that we appear to be polling 28/29% just 4 days out is a nice bonus from my perspective as a Lib Dem supporter. Of course I have everything crossed at the moment and still have a nagging fear that the Conservatives will sneak it due to Labour doing worse than expected (although even their polling seems to have stabilised now).

  47. I think you should be asking not why Labour is losing but why the Conservatives are struggling to win.
    ————————————————-
    Dave, you do have a point from the last thread.

    It’s the question the media have failed to ask…..and is still failing to ask.

    Why is it……. with all the claims of an unpopular government, with prime minister who is not liked, with near total support of the press, a campaign which has been clear of gaffs ……..they still cannot seal the deal.

    TV, radio, press all signaling winning momentum at the start of the week-end……..where is it?

  48. @EOIN

    I must say that a few days ago you said that whilst pollster analysts ( no names needed ) changed their views on many occasions…. that a certain number of polls were usually not far off

    yougov..it has to be said ..has been fairly consistent since the break into the pack by the liberals

    whats ICMs form on the last few weeks , apart from the strange one yesterday ?

  49. Matt
    YouGov 23 4 10
    was 35 27 28

    Could you tell me how you conclude what you just wrote please?

  50. ICM/Guardian poll conducted over this easter weekend gave the Tories a 4% lead. Polls either side gave them leads of 8% and 9%.

1 2 3 17