There were two Scottish polls this weekend – YouGov in the Scotland on Sunday had figures of CON 17%, LAB 37%, LD 22%, SNP 20%. TNS BMRB in the Scottish Mail on Sunday had figures of CON 13%, LAB 44%, LDEM 16%, SNP 23%. The YouGov poll would produce very little change in seats since 2005 – the Lib Dems would gain one seat from Labour, the SNP one. The TNS BMRB one would result in Labour gaining seats – one from the Conservatives and two from the Liberal Democrats.

The Sunday Times also had updated YouGov data from marginal seats, based on aggregated data from their daily polls. Annoyingly it didn’t give actual voting intention figures, nor the size of the swing – it just says that it shows a greater swing to the Conservatives in Lab-v-Con marginals than elsewhere. According to the Sunday Times the swing equates to the Conservatives gaining about 70 seats, which implies swing of about 5.5%. In the past week, the average national swing in YouGov polls has been 4.5%, so it would indeed appear to be showing a larger swing to the Conservatives in these seats. However, YouGov are suggesting it will be cancelled out by the swing to the Lib Dem in LD-v-Con seats, where they suggest the Conservatives could loose 16 seats – implying a 4% swing from the Conservatives to Liberal Democrats. This is in contrast to ICM’s marginal polling which showed no swing to the Lib Dems in Con-v-LD marginals.

The only poll I am expecting tonight is the daily YouGov/Sun poll – we haven’t normally seen much else on Sunday nights, and I expect that will be even more the case on a bank holiday weekend. While I assume we’ll still have the daily YouGov and ComRes polls early next week, I’d expect most pollsters to be looking toward their final polls on Wednesday now.


245 Responses to “More from Sunday’s polls”

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  1. A thought occurs.

    As a believer in the union the only place I would ever want Lab to do well is in Sctoland.

    If Cons do form a Govt and Lab are the opposition then the Scots will no longer have any reason to vote SNP as a protest against central Govt and the union will be safe.

    I have suddenly become an ardent socialist, but only in Scotland.

  2. Have to agree with Tony Dean.The word “radical Conservative” around these parts means one word- Thatcher.Any Tory standing on that ticket in the North West is liable to lose their deposit.That’s why the Lab/LD attack line is always “The Tories haven’t changed”

  3. @ Theresa

    Here it goes, (others please excuse me if you find this too much)

    South East:
    Crawley
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey,
    Harlow,
    Medway,
    Gillingham,
    Hove,
    Thanet South,
    Dartford,
    Portsmouth North,
    Hastings & Rye, Chatham & Aylesford Brighton Kemptown
    Stevenage
    Basildon
    Bedford
    Milton Keynes South West
    Reading West
    Dover
    Brighton, Pavilion

    South West:
    Dorset South
    Gloucester
    Stroud
    Swindon North
    Swindon South
    Wansdyke

    Greater London:
    Battersea
    Brent North
    Brentford & Isleworth
    Ealing, Acton & Shepherd’s Bush
    Ealing North
    Eltham
    Enfield North
    Finchley & Golders Green
    Hampstead & Highgate
    Harrow East
    Harrow West
    Hendon
    Regent’s Park & Kensington North
    Tooting

    East Anglia:
    Great Yarmouth

    West Midlands:
    Birmingham, Edgbaston
    Burton
    Dudley North
    Dudley South
    Halesowen & Rowley Regis
    Nuneaton
    Redditch
    Stafford
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stourbridge
    Tamworth
    Warwick & Leamington
    Wolverhampton South West
    Worcester

    East Midlands:
    Broxtowe
    Chester, City of
    Corby
    High Peak
    Loughborough

    York&Humber:
    Bradford West
    Brigg & Goole
    Calder Valley
    Cleethorpes
    Dewsbury
    Elmet
    Halifax
    Keighley
    Leeds North East
    Pudsey
    Selby
    Wakefield

    North West:
    Blackpool North & Fleetwood
    Bolton North East
    Bolton West
    Bury North
    Hyndburn
    Lancashire West
    Morecambe & Lunesdale
    Pendle
    Ribble South
    Rossendale & Darwen
    Warrington South
    Wirral South
    Wirral West

    North East:
    Tynemouth

    Wales:
    Cardiff North
    Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
    Conwy
    Vale of Glamorgan

    Scotland:
    Dumfries and Galloway

    (RE London, please keep in mind that YouGov dailies constantly show a larger swing to Cons as opposed to the last Regional Poll, so it does effect slightly)

  4. @NeilA
    “Not even St.Vincent of Cable?”

    Him included. The crisis was the result of debt securitisation begun in the late 80s and I never heard him saying anything about that.
    I did foresee it – though not the scale of its effects. My low opinion of Lemming Bros and Citicorp dates back to those times.

    As for the B of E, well I was present at a meeting of City bankers at which they were encouraged by the Governor to lend surplus Middle Eastern petrodollars to Latin American dictators (who promptly deposited the money in their Miami accounts instead of investing them in infrastructure).
    The result was a debt crisis of a lesser magnitude than the present one, but the banks went on to invent another wheeze.

  5. Labour should have kept Blunkett. ok, he made a few mistakes on the shares thing, but I reckon he would have made a good PM for Labour. As Home Secretary I always felt, that despite the fact he was blind (if I can say this), that he had a good feeling for the problems with anti-social behaviour and youth crime that have seemed to become prevalent. He also spoke freely, rather than constant party lines.

    In fact, the only ministers from Blair’s cabinets that I really liked were Robin Cook and Blunkett. I always felt Brown would have stabbed Blair in the back to get power. During the Iraq debates, he was nowhere to be seen, and certainly wasn’t by Blairs side. I am pretty certain he was hoping it might bring Blair down and he could step in?

  6. I am still amused by the oxymoron that we need to vote Conservative for ‘change’

    Also a similar bizarre reversal of roles for Labour which now portray themselves as the ‘safe pair of hands’ – if you like, Labour are the conservative choice (small c) at this election.

    Lib Dems are the ‘none of the above’ party.

    Ok – i’ll shut up now….

  7. @XIBY
    Thank you for the list.

  8. @Eoin
    Could you consult your abacus please? If ICM marginals info is correct then blues gain only 54 seats from reds. Total c265. Lorryloads short of an overall majority. Probably less seats than reds depending on Lab-LibDem swing. Have I missed something? Dunno what some of the blues are on today but perhaps they could share it around?

  9. @Gary,

    I know what you’ve mean. I’ve always found Canada’s “Progressive Conservatives” to be the most oxymoronically named party of all time.

  10. @IslandRadical
    “It was the distinction between Milliband and Johnson”
    —-
    Sorry, I didn’t read your post properly.
    Yes, more a matter of experience than ideology. I think Miliband might have floundered more, but I may be doing him an injustice.

  11. @XIBY

    Warrington South appears to be shaping up into a Con/LD scrap despite being a Labour seat

  12. @ROSIE P
    I understand that the concept of winning and not being first has been blurred by 13 years of political correctness. But, Cameron will be PM and Brown will be seen as a bloody disaster. My feminine side prevents me from detailing further in depth opinions on Mr Brown.

  13. I can’t see the Tories making the breakthrough and obtaining a significant lead that would indicate a majority. I think the current polling average of up to 36% is the max.

    The current undecideds I believe will be split between the other parties. It will depend on the issues which people have strong feelings about, as to which parties they will back.

    Don’t underestimate local issues and also strong support for some existing MP’s even if the party they are standing for is not as popular. For example David Drew in Stroud is the existing Labour MP, but is anti-EU and has fairly independent views which differ to his party. He is also very popular amongst the locals and as such, I would expect him to hold his seat.

    My prediction is now that the Tories will just pip Labour to having the most seats, but Labour will finish second in popular votes. Brown will try to continue and it will be up to the Lib Dems what they decide to do. I doubt they will go into coalition, but they could cooperate in some way.

  14. @Cozmo,

    I think you’re referring to the YouGov poll not the ICM one.

    YouGov are not saying 54 gains from Red they are saying 70 gains from Red minus 16 losses to Yellow which is what I think you meant?

    The point I made earlier is that this is a sort of “poll of polls” taking aggregates of YouGov polling over the past week (I think?) in their daily polls and looking at the regional/marginal cross breaks. So, the fact that some of those polls had the Tories on 33% and LibDems on 30% rather effects the look of the marginal poll. In other words, the marginal poll shows the Tories doing badly, but not as badly as some of the national polls it was derived from.

    The last three YouGov dailies show the Tories doing a lot better, and probably not losing seats to the LibDems. Certainly not 16 seats.

  15. Even of this thread i do not think the true dire state of the Labour vote in England is cleary understood,and as 85% of the UK population is in England Thursday in my opinion will be a disaster for the Labour party when the true extent of what New labour policies have done to their vote is realised, i reckon labour supporters will be in shear disbelief.

  16. ‘@gary
    If we look at meanings which dont stack up, what about “gay”.
    If I fell in love with a local male farmer, I would be anything but “gay”.

  17. You might not be gay, Roland, but I think the rest of us would manage a smile ;)

  18. @Eoin
    Thanks. You are correct. I think I need a break and a cuppa! So whatever can be shown by one lot of statistical gymnastics can easily be countered by another lot? Allow for MoE then take away the number I first thought of – and the answer is a banana!! But there is in fact all to play for it seems.

  19. If there is not a 10 point lead in the yougov poll with the tories hitting 38% tonight or tomorrow then my prediction over the last three weeks that there will be a tory majority will be wrong.

    As a Labour supporter, I dont think defeat on Thursday will be “the end of Labour”. They said that in 1992. With Miliband waiting in the wings Labour wont be replacing Callaghan/Brown with Foot but moving straight to a new Blair and there might have to be another election in 2012 with a possible Lib/Lab electoral pact to defeat the tories to bring in voting reform.

    The polls in general dont bode well for tories even if they win a narrow victory. After 13 years in opposition, with an unpopular war, a recession, record debt, most of Fleet Street and TV media on their side, an unpopular and badly presented sitting prime minister plus a media savvy articulate sharp suited media man as leader and they still struggle to get a majority of one.

    Sometimes in defeat lies victory.

  20. Has there been a poll on the homosexual leanings of male farmers – think we should be told.

    ( conducted by How are You! Gov’ ? )

  21. Re My List

    First of all I have not included the new boundaries as such which would also make a slight difference in seat counts.

    Moreover the Cons would win the following with under 2% difference and as such are to be deemed to close to call:
    Gloucester
    Brent North
    Leeds North East
    Pudsey
    Hyndburn
    Ealing North
    Lancashire West
    Regent’s Park & Kensington North
    Brighton, Pavilion
    Dudley North
    Great Yarmouth
    Reading West
    Broxtowe
    Dewsbury
    Wakefield
    Dumfries and Galloway

    Similarly with the following Labour holds:
    Chorley
    Ellesmere Port & Neston
    Tynemouth
    Crosby
    Crewe & Nantwich
    Coventry South
    Batley & Spen
    Telford
    Derbyshire South
    Warwickshire North
    Luton South
    Thurrock

  22. @DAVE

    Interesting point about defeat possibly being better than victory – especially when you consider what Mervyn King reportedly said about the austerity measures required.

    Some Tories have in the past argued that it would have been better to lose in 1992 by a small amount than suffer the electoral wipeout that occurred in 1997.

  23. @Cozmo
    “and the answer is a banana”

    Aren’t thoset what GB was reported to be on? :-)

  24. OnePole for the People has Con 30 Lib Dems 32 Lab 21 Others 17 (see political betting).

    The others are about 9 points too high, but if we subtract this amount and add it to the three main parties we would have Cons 33 Lib Dems 35 Lab 24. The gives some extra weight to the likelihood that Harris, BPIX and Angus Reid are more accurate.

  25. @DAVE

    “Sometimes in defeat lies victory.”

    Very true, and perhaps something for me to cling to on Friday. Where would Labour have been in 97 if Kinnock had won in 92?

  26. Others 17 seems wayout for that OnePoll – not sure we can just evenly distribute 9% between the other parties too.

  27. @DAVE
    You sound a bit like a soldier in Das Reich in May 45.

  28. I think another success of the Labour Party has been to force DC to commit to spending more money on the NHS, not to cut tax credits except for the middle classes, not to take away benefit for the elderly such as bus passes etc , so he has not left himself much room for manoevre should he win. Vat up to 20% in first budget looks very likely …

  29. @PhilipJW
    “OnePole for the People ”

    You obviously haven’t been following the news. There’s more than one -there’s a flock

  30. I think the real poisoned chalice is that whoever wins will have to break almost all of their election promises. In a way that would be hardest for Labour. At least the Tories can make a big theatrical show of opening up the books, Greece style, and declaring “Cripes, chaps, it’s a helluva lot worse than we were led to believe!”

  31. @Dave
    “With Miliband waiting in the wings Labour wont be replacing Callaghan/Brown with Foot but moving straight to a new Blair”

    Strictly in a non-partisan spirit, a lot of New labour’s success was down to Blair’s personal charisma, whereas Milliband has all the charisma of a greasy teacher’s pet, so might not be better than Foot inelectoral terms.

  32. @ Yozza

    Re Warrington South

    Agreed. I am in fact predicting an outcome on the following lines:

    36.25 28.53 31.29

    There are a few more like these, I can fish them out if you need.

    In fact there are 2 seats which would be won by the LibDems in spite of the fact that they are considered Lab-Con marginals. These are:

    Northampton North predicted at:
    27.89 30.97 34.88

    Colne Valley (a very tight contest between Con and Lib), predicted at:
    27.89 30.97 34.88

  33. Correction

    Colne Valley predicted at:
    33.97 23.41 34.97

  34. @Roland Haines.

    “You sound a bit like a soldier in Das Reich in May 1945”

    More like a Tommy at Dunkirk.

    Churchill was in a bunker too.

  35. yes – VATs the prime candidate

    I think DC could be canny and make a few token exceoptions on VAT – for example my wife and I have frequently discussed an idea thta VAT could be imposed on packaged food only – thus incentivising local organic produce, reducing the prevalence of non-reclyable packaging – would appear green while hamering largely imported goods at the expense of british produce.

    Re NHS I have my doubts as to whether that ‘promise’ will entirley be kept. Depends what you call the NHS – he just needs to hive off primary care services from admin/ contracts etc and fully privatise the latter. In other words ring fence doctors, nurses but reduce in other areas. there would be plenty of flexibility in the financial stats if you alter the base.

  36. NEIL A

    Would that work though? Especially if Labour can effectively argue for an alternative approach.

    Also depends if we do have a double-dip recession – that would really play into Labours hands as that is what they have been saying would be the ‘risk’ of a Tory victory.

  37. @Greengrass
    Possibly! But I am no expert on GB’s diet. I am a Lab member in a safe red seat but have spent this morning helping LidDems deliver leaflets in a LibDem held marginal next door !. Purely unofficial of course, just being neighbourly !!

  38. sorry – spell check in future!

  39. Greengrass,

    Onepole is the name of the firm. Are you saying there is a flock of firms called Onepole????

  40. @Pete B

    Actually I think Miliband is very charismatic and he is almost certainly the next Labour prime minister.

    I also believe that the 21st century, unlike the twentieth will belong to the progressives on the centre left.

    We will fight and win another day not too distant

  41. @Dave
    “I think Miliband is very charismatic and he is almost certainly the next Labour prime minister.”

    We’d gathered that was what you thought thanks to your constant repetition of your admiration.
    Perhaps it’s the turn of a woman of substance after GB leaves.

  42. @Xiby
    Looking at your list I would think the Conservatives should take Leicestershire NW, also am surprised you think they could take Brighton Pavillion?
    Have you got Watford going to the LibDems in a 3 way marginal battle?
    A loss such as Wakefield would be Labour doing v bad indeed

  43. @PhilipJW
    “Onepole is the name of the firm”

    I think you’ll find it’s spelt differently – not that I suppose it matters to you.

  44. Hi everybody, my first time post after months of lurking. I was hoping somebody may be able to point me in the direction of a recent voting intention poll for Wales. I’m trying to come up with a seat prediction for Thursday night and would love to refine it with a Welsh poll. So far I have CON 301 LAB 240 LD 76. I feel that this overestimates Labour at the expense of the Lib Dems and so would like to take England and Wales separately to see if I can remedy this somewhat.

  45. @Roland

    One might argue that a German soldier expressing such a sentiment at the fall of the Reich would have been proved to be rather prescient; certainly if one compares the progress of the UK and Germany in the succeeding 65 years.

  46. Apparently Nick Clegg, though reported as losing the third debate on Thursday, was reported as having won the third debate 35% to 32%, according to a YouGov Friday poll reported in the Times:

    h t t p://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7113984.ece

    and here:

    h t t p://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/13241088448

    and here:

    h t t p://www.libdemvoice.org/the-yougov-poll-which-shows-nick-clegg-won-the-third-tv-debate-19248.html

    I can’t find the figures on YouGov, however. Anybody know where they are?

  47. Another thing that should worry the tories -and might explain their problem in getting even a majority of one after 13 years -is that in the last 10-15 years the electorate has moved to the centre left.

    People now expect decently funded public services, they support gay rights, they are hostile to bankers and fatcats.

    This is why any new tory government is going to very quickly become very unpopular….

    Friday morning is not the end of our ongoing political story…

  48. Xiby,

    Interesting list. I see my own seat of Edgbaston is there to change hands. I’ve heard rumours that Labour have left Gisela Stuart to it and have fallen back to defendable seats nearby. Selly Oak is not on your list. Do you expect it to stay the same then?

  49. @ Colin

    Yes it should remain Lab, but the Libs are getting frightfully close. I would assume they are not campaigning hard there, would i be correct?

  50. @Dave

    ‘sometimes in defeat lies victory’

    you are a genius

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