There were two Scottish polls this weekend – YouGov in the Scotland on Sunday had figures of CON 17%, LAB 37%, LD 22%, SNP 20%. TNS BMRB in the Scottish Mail on Sunday had figures of CON 13%, LAB 44%, LDEM 16%, SNP 23%. The YouGov poll would produce very little change in seats since 2005 – the Lib Dems would gain one seat from Labour, the SNP one. The TNS BMRB one would result in Labour gaining seats – one from the Conservatives and two from the Liberal Democrats.

The Sunday Times also had updated YouGov data from marginal seats, based on aggregated data from their daily polls. Annoyingly it didn’t give actual voting intention figures, nor the size of the swing – it just says that it shows a greater swing to the Conservatives in Lab-v-Con marginals than elsewhere. According to the Sunday Times the swing equates to the Conservatives gaining about 70 seats, which implies swing of about 5.5%. In the past week, the average national swing in YouGov polls has been 4.5%, so it would indeed appear to be showing a larger swing to the Conservatives in these seats. However, YouGov are suggesting it will be cancelled out by the swing to the Lib Dem in LD-v-Con seats, where they suggest the Conservatives could loose 16 seats – implying a 4% swing from the Conservatives to Liberal Democrats. This is in contrast to ICM’s marginal polling which showed no swing to the Lib Dems in Con-v-LD marginals.

The only poll I am expecting tonight is the daily YouGov/Sun poll – we haven’t normally seen much else on Sunday nights, and I expect that will be even more the case on a bank holiday weekend. While I assume we’ll still have the daily YouGov and ComRes polls early next week, I’d expect most pollsters to be looking toward their final polls on Wednesday now.


245 Responses to “More from Sunday’s polls”

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  1. The Scottish polls are showing something I suspected might happen – which is many Scottish voters deciding to swing back behind their fellow countryman as PM which isn’t particularly surprising. The Tories will have to be careful they don’t lose their one seat in Dumfriesshire although David Mundell is by all accounts a popular local member.

  2. There’s the People poll I wrote to Anthony about as well, but I guess he’s discounting it since he isnt reporting it. Nevertheless, it’s here

    LD 32 (nc from a week ago)
    Con 30 (-2)
    Labor 21 (-2)

    It may be ridiculous, but I think it should be at least noted to compare it with actual end results after May 6 voting is done. The auhor over there muses there is quite a bit of difference with numbers between phone polls and online ones.

  3. Anthony

    Would you expect the final polls to be published in Wednesday’s or Thursday’s newspapers?

  4. @andy js

    I think it’s less getting behind GB than being fearful of a CON government – the scars left by Thatcher years are still very strong in Scotland (as in the North East of England) and the possibility of aa CON majority in parliament would drive Scottish voters towards whoever can beat the blues

  5. “The TNS BMRB one would result in Labour gaining seats – one from the Conservatives and two from the Liberal Democrats.” 8-)
    —————————————————————–
    I’m guessing Alistair Darling & Mark Lazarowicz would take that TNS result & be heartily thankful :-)

  6. Could the underlying banking/economic crisis be more readily understood to date in Scotland? It was Scottish-banks at the centre of the UK government led bailout.

  7. Excellent results for the Tories once again!!!!!! Yippeee!

  8. Not terribly good news for the Independence agenda?

  9. I’ll say it again. Saturday’s polls will be very close to the GE result.

    Everybody is enjoying the bank holiday weekend. I can’t see any further game changers.

    The voters are definitely rejecting Brown as a competent PM, but not giving Cameron a decisive big majority like say Blair got.

    I think what this says is that the electorate have seen that parties with huge majorities, from Thatcher mid 80s, to Blair late 90s, are not good for democracy, and lead to significant minorities feeling dis-engaged from the whole process, and a more presidential approach to Govt.

  10. A better swing than the national polls suggest (again). And the national polls suggest 7%+Tory leads over Labour. Even if the Tories don’t get an outright majority, the end of GB (and Labour) is nigh, me thinks!!!!!!!

  11. @Matt
    Are you being ironic? These results would mean a hung parliament still?

    @Scott Tribe
    Do we know OnePolls methodology? The poll result is certainly an eye-brow raiser!!!

  12. “Excellent results for the Tories once again”

    Where?

  13. Scott Tribe
    The poll for the People was conducted by OnePoll who are a market research company that conduct all their research online. To take part you have to be registered with them.Therefore they are not recognised as one of the more reliable sources for political polling. Just think of all the Gillian Duffy’s who would answer the phone but are probably not online.

  14. @AndyJS
    “which is many Scottish voters deciding to swing back behind their fellow countryman as PM which isn’t particularly surprising”

    I would have thought tribal Scots are more likely to be SNP supporters (*pace* OldNat).

  15. Tony Dean:

    No I don’t know the Onepoll’s poll methodology, other then it appears to be an online poll, not a phone poll.THe autrhor over there mentioned it’s a newer outfit, but it was worth reporting in his mind.

  16. @ Matt

    Even if the Tories don’t get an outright majority, the end of GB (and Labour) is nigh

    ______________________________________

    The end of Labour? Is this like one of those Francis Fukuyama end of history statements? :)

  17. ‘@Richard O
    You are right about the majority issue, recent (last 13 years) have sowered BIG majorities, Cameron has done a very good job to come this far.

  18. Neil A

    “Not terribly good news for the Independence agenda?”

    I fear you misunderstand the deviousness of nationalist thinking. By the time of the Holyrood elections next year expect whatever Westminster government to be deeply unpopular as cuts begin to bite. If it is Labour or Labour-led then the SNP will seek to feed on this just as they did in 2007. if it is Tory then it will be portrayed as ‘anti-Scottish’ and they will claim that neither Lab nor LD can protect Scotland.

    Basically whatever the Westminster dice throws up on Friday morning can be used to the SNP’s advantage.

    I rely on the good sense of my compatriots to see through this and realise that, whatever happens this week, should not allow the SNP to forge ahead with their 19th century solution to 21st century problems.

  19. Labours only hope seems to be a hung parliament now and these results seem to be fairly helpful in that regard.

    Interesting though to see how the trend goes over the next few days.

  20. I don’t pay to much attention to Scottish Polls,being English i don’t think i am alone,however even i can see the SNP are in freefall.

    I fully expect labour to get 25% of less in England,30% or so in Wales and 40% or so in scotland.

    Are we really a United KIngdom?

  21. @RogerH,

    Matt is right generally.

    The polls going in to the final few days are very good for the Conservatives considering where it could have been. I thought we were looking at 4% lead for Cons, which might have kept Brown in, but its looking like 7% which is almost certainly a change of PM, although I agree a hung parliament is still a real possibility.

    Whichever way you look at it, generally, voters are rejecting Mr Brown. Even most Labour supportors I know desperately wish they had changed their leader a while back and gone in to this election with Milliband or even say Blunket. Does this mean Hoon & Hewitt ironically were right? lol

    Rich

  22. 70 seat gain for Cons, if one discounts the top 50 likely to have swung anyway, means a 20 seat return on investment for Lord Ashcroft. Can’t be bothered to work it out but…

  23. @MATT

    Talk about picking the juiciest cherries from the tree… My reading of the text is a prediction of a net gain of 54 seats for the Tories.

  24. @Matt

    “Excellent results for the Tories once again!!!!!! Yippeee!”

    You must be joking. These are absolutely disastrous for the Tories. 16 losses to the LDs would scupper any hope of a majority.

    The People poll is clearly ridiculous, but overall, these results look promising for the LDs, poor for the Conservatives and mixed for Labour (good in Scotland, poor in England).

    The more I see of yougov, the more convinced I am that their methodology is the most reliable and consistent.

  25. Bank holiday weekend could mean middle england away on hol till Tuesday – prepare for a conservative dip tonight.

  26. Apologies for my outburst. It annoyed me that the partisan nature of many Labour posts are overlooked, when Tory ones aren’t. And the fact that some posters take it on themselves to personally attack others despite having no other reason than disagreement.

  27. @Roland Haines
    Cameron’s only lost votes in an election where all the media are behind him , all the money, the business men and all the problems Labour have had.
    Let’s hope there no crisis in the next five years or we’re all ..

  28. @Matt
    No apologies needed. Best to ignore them.

  29. Wont the Tories blame everything on Gordon Brown? By the way where are the LibDem canvassers?

  30. @Greengrass

    “No apologies needed. Best to ignore them.”

    Thanks mate. You’re right. I regret my outburst now. Back to normality for me, me thinks XD.

  31. @ Roland Haines / Richard O

    I don’t think voters think specifically about handing out a big/medium/small majority or hung parliament. The outcome of the election is an accumulation of individual opinions.

    Cameron hasn’t come that far – bearing in mind the substantial sums of money pumped into marginals and other tory promotions. At the moment he has moved from Howard’s +33% to 35% – an overwhelming endorsement of his abilities I’m sure. Ho ho ho ! Really !

  32. @Parag,

    If Labour have a poor result on Thursday, it will have very little to do with the media or Lord Aschroft.

    It will be because people don’t like Gordon Brown’s style of leadership and the level of debt the Country has built up under his watch.

    People also forget that during the Blair years, Labour had most of the press, including the Sun, The Times and arguably the BBC. The control and influence from Alistair Campbell’s office was far more gripping & manipulating than you will see under any Conservative Govt, that I can just about guarantee!!

    rich

  33. @ RICHARD O

    No Hewitt and Hoon were not right. To try and unseat Brown so close to an election and precipitate a leadership crisis was plain stupidity.It pretty much summed up the selfish, arrogant attitudes of these two embittered mediocre ex ministers.
    I didn’t want to see Brown become leader. His fate was sealed the day Cameron became Tory leader. We all knew Brown would eventually take over from Blair and would look worn out when compared with a fresh faced new kid on the blocks in Cameron.
    Labour needed a leadership election once Blair stepped down rather than a coronation. Had they chosen Milliband or Johnson three years ago things may be very different now. Once Brown became leader their fate was sealed because there was just no way the party could force Brown to step down and appoint a third PM within the same administration. Sadly all of this mess Labour are currently in is self-inflicted. They have handed a second-rate shadow cabinet victory on a plate.

  34. statechaos:

    Thanks for that:

    We have 2 polling companies in Canada that do the same thing with their online polls (where you have to register with them) – Leger, and Angus-Reid.

  35. @PARAG LEICESTER
    What are you saying exactly? The Conservative party has come from a long way back, that is beyond doubt. As for the vast media support they have had, I respectfully suggest you drop that kind of topic as some of us take a different view.

  36. ELECTORAL CALCULUS AS AT 2ND MAY

    CONS 36.55 317 SEATS
    LAB 26.55 213SEATS
    LIBS 27.25 88 SEATS
    OTHERS 10.02 21 SEATS

    STILL SAY 38 26 24.

    PEOPLE SAID LAST WEEK I WAS AN IF AND BUT POSTER. MAYBE EXPERIENCE CAN BE BETTER THEN SPREADSHEETS, % AND SCENARIOS,.

  37. Matt
    Excellent results for the Tories once again!!!!!! Yippeee!

    ****************************

    Forgive me Matt, but how after 13 years of a Labour government and the expected “time for a change” attitude is being the biggest party in a hung parliament or a tiny majority “excellent” ?……….It’s actually very, very poor. The Tories should be over 40% and well over, that would be excellent, this is falling over the line like a drunk.

  38. “I thought we were looking at 4% lead for Cons, which might have kept Brown in, but its looking like 7% which is almost certainly a change of PM”

    That depends where you look. 4.5% according to Anthony (above). At present the campaign looks like having been a failure for both Labour and Conservatives.

  39. Whilst the YouGov marginals aren’t exactly great news for the Tories, I would caution that of course these are aggregates from a number of daily polls. YouGov have been showing rather better Tory leads (and lower LibDem scores) in the past few days than they were a week ago. I very, very much doubt that the Tories are looking at 16 seats going yellow. More like 3 or 4, if any, on the basis of the last few polls.

    The key message (yet again) is that the evidence still suggests that whatever the Tories eventually get in the election, they will exceed UNS due to a degree of “marginal” effect. We don’t know exactly how much, and we don’t know what they will poll, so we can’t extrapolate to a final result.

  40. @Steve,

    It’s poor for Labour as it would suggest that their turn in government is almost over. It’s good for the Tories because they are now within touching distance of getting a majority – something that was very unlikely just a few days ago.

    It’s still a strong possibility that we will get a Lib-lab coalition, but how long would it last when such cuts are planned?

  41. @ Matt

    Getting excited about politics is a healthy thing IMO – despite that I am still a DK between DC and NC I can easily forgive your pro-DC excitement – if only more people had your passion for whatever chap they support! However, you quite sensibly upon reflection have admitted that this site is not the place for it. Respect you for saying so!

  42. If these headline SNP numbers turn out to be the result,or anyhere near it,will that be the end of Salmond?

  43. Does anyone know how the exit poll is carried out? Is it simply the same as the normal polls but with perhaps a larger sample? Does someone accost you when you come out of the polling booth and ask you to your face or do you have to voluntarily fill in another voting slip?

    Sorry for all the questions. I’m just curious – could do with the exit poll being accurate this Thursday so I don’t have to stay up half the night!

  44. “Whilst the YouGov marginals aren’t exactly great news for the Tories, I would caution that of course these are aggregates from a number of daily polls. YouGov have been showing rather better Tory leads (and lower LibDem scores) in the past few days than they were a week ago. I very, very much doubt that the Tories are looking at 16 seats going yellow. More like 3 or 4, if any, on the basis of the last few polls.”

    Ah, that explains it. The Lib dem vote has come down since then, after all.

  45. @ROSIE P
    Well Rosie, Cameron has not come as far up the greasy pole, as Gordon Brown is going down it.

  46. “Getting excited about politics is a healthy thing IMO – despite that I am still a DK between DC and NC I can easily forgive your pro-DC excitement – if only more people had your passion for whatever chap they support! However, you quite sensibly upon reflection have admitted that this site is not the place for it. Respect you for saying so!”

    Thanks. I will revert back to my sensible and objective self from this moment forth, now I have calmed down lol.

  47. We are seriously looking at a split UK after the GE,we already have labour almost wiped out in local Government in England,London has a tory mayor,and i fully expect a tory Government with a majority on Friday.

    In Scotland however Labour are as popular as ever.

  48. @ Polemi Dave

    “Bank holiday weekend could mean middle england away on hol till Tuesday – prepare for a conservative dip tonight”

    So if there is no dip, would you concede an underlying increase for Conservatives from those polled who weren’t on holiday ? :)

  49. @Decision Time 2010

    “If these headline SNP numbers turn out to be the result,or anyhere near it,will that be the end of Salmond?”

    __________________________

    Will Salmond and Sturgeon be wriggling on the end of a hook?

    If LD can reel them in, most definitely.

  50. I have been predicting a tory majority, -something I would hate-for the last three weeks.

    My GE prediction is Tory 38, Labour 28, Lib dems 26.

    If my prediction is to come true the yougov poll tonight would show something very similar to this. No one would be more delighted than me if I am wrong.

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