There were two Scottish polls this weekend – YouGov in the Scotland on Sunday had figures of CON 17%, LAB 37%, LD 22%, SNP 20%. TNS BMRB in the Scottish Mail on Sunday had figures of CON 13%, LAB 44%, LDEM 16%, SNP 23%. The YouGov poll would produce very little change in seats since 2005 – the Lib Dems would gain one seat from Labour, the SNP one. The TNS BMRB one would result in Labour gaining seats – one from the Conservatives and two from the Liberal Democrats.

The Sunday Times also had updated YouGov data from marginal seats, based on aggregated data from their daily polls. Annoyingly it didn’t give actual voting intention figures, nor the size of the swing – it just says that it shows a greater swing to the Conservatives in Lab-v-Con marginals than elsewhere. According to the Sunday Times the swing equates to the Conservatives gaining about 70 seats, which implies swing of about 5.5%. In the past week, the average national swing in YouGov polls has been 4.5%, so it would indeed appear to be showing a larger swing to the Conservatives in these seats. However, YouGov are suggesting it will be cancelled out by the swing to the Lib Dem in LD-v-Con seats, where they suggest the Conservatives could loose 16 seats – implying a 4% swing from the Conservatives to Liberal Democrats. This is in contrast to ICM’s marginal polling which showed no swing to the Lib Dems in Con-v-LD marginals.

The only poll I am expecting tonight is the daily YouGov/Sun poll – we haven’t normally seen much else on Sunday nights, and I expect that will be even more the case on a bank holiday weekend. While I assume we’ll still have the daily YouGov and ComRes polls early next week, I’d expect most pollsters to be looking toward their final polls on Wednesday now.


245 Responses to “More from Sunday’s polls”

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  1. I think that ICM/Guardian poll is a few days out of date, but not sure…don’t mean to wine

  2. @Colin Green

    You’re not wrong. After the initial peak and then slight drop of Cleggmania, there really haven’t been any significant changes, at least in Yougov’s polls. There just aren’t any trends at work here, no Conservative resurgence, it’s dead stable. With only three days of campaigning left, it doesn’t look like we’re in for any big shifts, barring some sort of surprise event.

  3. @Eoin – I think the country’s still in the same funny mood that it was in a month ago. To whit: not really sure about any of them. Wanting to give the incumbent Government a good kicking, but not enamoured of the prospect of a hung Parliament and not enamoured of the prospect of an outright victory for any other party either. Labour is discredited, the Lib Dems’ policies are too way out there, and the Tories are a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde. Dave hasn’t blown it, but he hasn’t sealed the deal either.

    That pattern seems to have been followed throughout this campaign. As soon as it looked like Labour was dropping significantly behind or the Tories were getting significantly ahead, the polls have narrowed again.

    P.S. As I write this, I’ve just seen a tweet claiming that ICM/Guardian has C33/L28/LD28. Fun and games…

  4. @Richard O

    You dont sound neutral to me.

    Only one government since 1832 has stayed in power for a fourth term. The time for a change factor alone would make it difficult for Labour to win again, and I accept Labour will not win a majority on Thursday. I also accept that Labour has got a lot wrong. Overall however I think the Labour government since 1997 has been on balance a good one.

    If Cameron supports Gay rights why did he criticise Blair for repealing clause 28? Why hasnt he sacked Chris Grayling for saying he supports discrimination against gays in B and B? I’m not convinced.

    The fascinating thing is though why isnt the time for a change factor which affects every government in history giving the tories a massive endorsement?

    Why does the Yougov poll show the tories only one point above their 2005 level. Its understandable Labour doing so badly after 13 years. But why are the tories doing so badly? Are the voters perhaps more intelligent than we give them credit for?

  5. Wonderful news ICM Labour largest party and YouGov showing no chance of Conservative majority <1% up on 2005 defeat

  6. @ Xiby

    “I truly do not get Clegg’s campaign. He has traveled all the way to Redcar hoping to convince Labs to vote for him. Is he imagining that he can swing 15% off Lab?

    Mental if you ask me.”

    Method in the madness. Remember, this visit will be covered by BBC NE&C & Tyne-Tees. It will show him in the north-east, not just Redcar and thus help in their target seats.Also, thousands of jobs recently lost in steel industry doesn’t bode well for Lab. Lots of comments along the lines of “they could bail out the banks, why not steel” etc.

    It’s like GB being in London. Harriet Harman doesn’t really need his help nor does Tessa Jowell (if they do, then we are well and truly up the creek) but Glenda Jackson does and pics of GB with prominent Lab women will play well, as will coverage of visit to overwhelmingly black church with added bonus of regional TV.

  7. @EOIN

    I would not call the change significant, just as i saw nothing out of the ordinary in yesterday’s polls. Who’s got the mo? the Hung Parliament Party has the mo ;)

    I still believe that your are closer to the end result then most, and i still stick to my prediction of Con 34% Lab 31% Lib 26%. But i am very YouGov-centric, they might be messing with me after all ;)

  8. CM/Guardian poll Lab 28% (288 seats) Con 33% (251 seats) Lib Dem 28% (88 seats) according to @Uklabourparty twitter

    can anyone confirm this ?

  9. @Eoin,

    I do agree that there seems to be a trend that when Conservatives break to around the 7% lead mark, the electorate seems to bring it back down to 5%.

    Is this a manifestation of the rejection of all politics?? no sure.

    rich

  10. @Mark

    “Omens are good tonight”

    Do you know something we don’t!?

    @Fingerbob69

    “What good Cameron headlines where those …the debate? I think not. ”

    We obviously weren’t watching/reading the same things. Re:Labour I was also referring to reports that the Labour campaign was in meltdown, not just Duffygate

  11. Electoral Calculus using ICm gives

    Tories 251
    Labour 240
    Lib Dems 118

  12. WINE BLOG:
    “I think that ICM/Guardian poll is a few days out of date, but not sure…don’t mean to wine”

    ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,026 adults aged 18+, 30 April-2 May 2010.

  13. Sorry …labour should be 249

  14. So, broadly, does this mean we are back where we were before the last debate and Mrs Duffy?

  15. ICM poll suggesting that turn out will be much higher than 2005… Not hard I guess…

  16. “The poll was carried out over the bank holiday weekend, a factor which in the past has reduced the accuracy of some surveys” -comment on Guardian website re ICM poll….

  17. @ Neil_

    Before you get too excited perhaps I should point out that if that poll is wrong by just 1% the Tories will be the largest party in seats.

    It really is too close to call.

    The polling in the marginals suggests that the Tories are much closer to a majority than that – heading for around 311 seats.

  18. @Dave,

    I can’t engage in partisan debates so this is the last time I will reply to you. It’s the wrong site, and you can find plenty of others if you want to just bash Conservatives with anti-toff card etc.

    As stated, if Labour get in somehow, or Brown remains, I will be very disappointed, but I won’t look to assign blame.

    rich

  19. @RichardO

    I would go for the Matt option and ignore Dave et al if I were you. I can empathise with your irritation.
    It is good that DC has converted *a la* Portillo. Gay issues are not one of his shortcomings and that applies to Osborne too. I do feel though that his lack of success is due in large part to many sharing my perception of him as opportunist based on his track-record in opposition and I am not even convinced he would have become as gay-friendly were it not part of his modernisation strategy rather than on principle.

  20. @ Eoin

    “Id suggest that 2% closing of the gap is moderately significant”

    Hi Eoin, ‘spreadsheetman’ here again. Moving averages of all polls since Clegg-mania in debate one show Cons trending up towards 36 and Libs trending down to 27 and Lab trending down to meet them on 27. The gap between Con and Lab is trending towards 7.7.

    On YouGovs alone you might have to concede that if a 2-point closure is significant now then of the last 15 YG’s the gap averaged 6 in the first 5, 6 in the second five and now 7 in the last five so trending up? ;)

  21. ICM/Guardian from Guardian Website
    guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/02/general-election-2010-conservatives-short-majority-poll

    Con 33% (nc
    Lab 28%
    Lib 28%

    ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,026 adults aged 18+, 30 April-2 May 2010.

    From Guardian Website
    guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/02/general-election-2010-conservatives-short-majority-poll

  22. David Cameron is the problem for the Tories. He is the Cuckoo in the nest, pretending to be the heir to Blair. This confuses the hell out of most long standing Tories. Some of these have drifted off to UKIP. There are many Tories that share the views of Peter Hitchens, that the Tories should avoid winning this election and come back at the following election with a stronger leader more aligned to traditional Tory values.

    If you are watching the channel 4 debate at the moment, it is very good at highlighting the potential problems for any government. For those Tories watching this they must be thinking, that perhaps Brown should be sorting out his own mess. Could the Tories poll ratings with this sudden realisation start to dip ?

  23. Those 2 polls for ICM and YouGov are very similar – and they happen to be the 2 polling organisations that I trust the most.

    I think we have to assume that they are fairly accurate and that we are still embedded deep in hung parliament territory – even with a Tory marginal boost.

  24. Rich O

    “If Labour get in somehow or Brown remains, I will be very disappointed”

    This quote demonstrates your lack of partisanship does it?

  25. Re:Labour I was also referring to reports that the Labour campaign was in meltdown

    If it is, the Lord Mandy of Everything is doing a stella job of covering it up!

  26. new thread for yougov/icm polls..

  27. @XIBY.

    Re: Nick Clegg, the LD’s and Redcar. Ladbrokes have suspended the betting on the seat. Several shrewdies piled in at 4/1…..

  28. “why should you be heavily taxed on death as well? ”

    I’d rather be taxed when dead than when alive. Everyone likes tax cuts but they have to be matched with either increases or cutbacks elsewhere.

    “I should point out that if that poll is wrong by just 1% the Tories will be the largest party in seats”

    Depends in which direction.

  29. The suggestion over on PB seems to be that the Tories are under-polled tonight because so many of them are away for the bank holiday weekend. Does that make sense? The people who are doing well enough under the current government to go away for the bank holiday are going to vote to remove them?

    How ungrateful!

  30. Rich – I have said many times that 5% is the Con support level. There should be comfort that Lab have not managed to breach that very strong level convincingly

  31. What can we actually be sure of from these polls?

    Con leading; may or may not be close to a majority.
    LD likely to do better than last time.
    Lab most unlikely to have a majority but will get more seats than the vote share deserves.

    What this actually means in respect of seats depends on the last minute press attacks, vote distribution, differential turn out and whether or not voters are telling the truth to pollsters. Prediction is difficult.

  32. @ Gary

    Even The Guardian themselves on their website are saying that bank holiday weekend polls produce some strange results.

    The theory goes that more public sector workers are questioned because they are at home and they are more likely to be Labour voters.

    On Easter Monday a poll showed Labour on 33% but they fell back the following day. If the figures are still like this on Wednesday then DC & the Tories can start panicking, but not just yet. I still expect them to be the largest party in both seats and share on Thursday.

  33. @ Dave

    I note that the latest Yougov has cheered you up immensely. Which is nice. I thought for a while we were going to have to arrange counselling for you.

    In all honesty, despite my preference being for DC I am tempted to think that Labour should be forced to stay in power in order to clean their mess up. A sort of Community Service for 13 years of misrule. Interestingly, I had a conversation with my local Conservative candidate as he put up a placard in my front garden. The doorstep canvassing in this area indicates a liking for the LDs but very few people actually intending to have the leap of faith. The good news for Dave, Sue et al is that Labour is pulling out all the stops to hold onto the constituency where I live, as they don’t want to see their 13500 majority overturned.

  34. Thanks GreenGrass,

    I will take yours & Matt’s advice!

  35. What an amzing election this is.

    With everything that has happened to Labour you would have thought things would get worse. OK maybe their polling figures are at their worse.

    I think Cameron has been out classing Clegg of late very smooth, very sharp. He’s what they call in the states a snake oil salesmen. He certainly would have made a great car salesman. But i think that might be the cons problem.

    There has been several times when I thought Clegg hasn’t rammed home the advantage particularly on tax reform and not taken the Lib dems perceived weak points on immigration, defence (Trident) and turned it to advantage.

    Any way we are whre we are. Polls have just about bit stuck for a week with a bit of noise here and there.

    This thing looks like its going to turn on whether the Lib Dens hold theirs and take a bunndle of Tory seats
    Other wise We will have a government running subject to a veto from Belfast.

  36. @Richard O,

    “I will take yours & Matt’s advice!”

    Very wise. Let’s just hope we are left smiling on Thursday with the Tories getting at least 300 seats!!

  37. @Sue,

    agreed, on support level, and also on a pullback level that seems to exist at 7-8%.

    Did you see the special report on Brighton Pavilion on I think it was a newsnight special yesterday? They spoke to all candidates and various members of the public. Just to show I can be quite concilliatory and non-partisan, I wasn’t particularly impressed at that particular Conservative candidate.

    rich

  38. Maybe Blair’s appearance on the campaign trail has reminded people that they don’t want a Blair Mk II.

  39. @ Simon Hepworth

    Please – less of the Tory partisanship and snide comments.
    This is really not the place.

  40. @Richard O,

    It isn’t a coincidence that the number of blues on this site has decreased exponentially over the past month IMO. Shame really. I just keep quiet unless someone insults/annoys me a lot.

  41. @MARK

    I accept that we need to see how the polls pan out over the next few days – I am assuming we may see as many as 4 or 5 polls every night this week in the run up to polling day. It will be fascinating to see if the Tories can get over 36%.

  42. @ Andrew Holden

    Nice one! Love the irony after the bombardment and partisanship of recent days. It’s ridiculous and not what we signed up for.

    I rest my case and am pleased to see it being dealt with so firmly.

  43. It’s amusing to see Labour claiming that the SNP is “in freefall” and that they can be “reeled in” in the face of they will have improved on their 2005 results and the most recent Holyrood polls showing them improving their percentages both constituency and regional terms.

    But one can comfort oneself with delusions. It doesn’t affect the outcome.

    If LD tries to “reel in” the SNP and refuses to work with them–as they so stupidly did after the last Holyrood election–you can look for the LD polling numbers to go into freefall again. The Scots look in a mood to be forgiving of the LD stupidity in their cozying up to Labour and refusing a coalition with the SNP. Hopefully they’ve learned their lesson but considering that they’re run by the London faction rather than the Scottish faction, I’m actually not betting on it.

  44. Nothing to do with the topic but I kep trying to register for this site. Every time I do it promises me an email has been sent but that email with the confirmation link never arrives! It’s an aol email btw. Anyone help?

  45. GIVE US OUR SWINGOMETER BACK!

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