It’s the last Sunday before the election, so we have a large number of polls out tonight. I’ve mentioned most of them in a quick post earlier on, but now I’ve had chance to get home and digest them properly. Here are the polls so far
YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)
They are pretty consistent in showing a slight increase in Conservative support over the last couple of days, with every company now showing them up into the mid-thirties. Most companies have Labour around 27-29%, the exception being Angus Reid who continue to show much lower levels of support for the Government. Most have the Liberal Democrats in the high 20s, with ComRes a bit lower, BPIX slightly higher. All five of these polls would produce a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party – YouGov would have the Conservatives at around 284, ICM at around 275, ComRes 315, Angus Reid 310, BPIX 264.
There was also an ICM poll of marginals in the News of the World. This was the same 96 seats ICM polled for the previous ICM marginal survey here. It showed support in these seats at CON 35%(-1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 22%(+3) – so only a minor Lib Dem boost in these seats. These levels of support equate to a swing to the Conservatives of 6.8%, so just the swing they would need for an overall majority, and about 1.8% more than the national swing suggested in ICM’s GB poll in the Sunday Telegraph (the News of the World has extrapolated this over the whole country to claim that the Conservatives would have an overall majority – that’s rather stretching it, firstly you can’t assume anything about LD/Con marginals from this poll, secondly the News of the World are making a lot of assumptions about how much support the Conservatives can rely upon from Northern Ireland.