It’s the last Sunday before the election, so we have a large number of polls out tonight. I’ve mentioned most of them in a quick post earlier on, but now I’ve had chance to get home and digest them properly. Here are the polls so far

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

They are pretty consistent in showing a slight increase in Conservative support over the last couple of days, with every company now showing them up into the mid-thirties. Most companies have Labour around 27-29%, the exception being Angus Reid who continue to show much lower levels of support for the Government. Most have the Liberal Democrats in the high 20s, with ComRes a bit lower, BPIX slightly higher. All five of these polls would produce a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party – YouGov would have the Conservatives at around 284, ICM at around 275, ComRes 315, Angus Reid 310, BPIX 264.

There was also an ICM poll of marginals in the News of the World. This was the same 96 seats ICM polled for the previous ICM marginal survey here. It showed support in these seats at CON 35%(-1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 22%(+3) – so only a minor Lib Dem boost in these seats. These levels of support equate to a swing to the Conservatives of 6.8%, so just the swing they would need for an overall majority, and about 1.8% more than the national swing suggested in ICM’s GB poll in the Sunday Telegraph (the News of the World has extrapolated this over the whole country to claim that the Conservatives would have an overall majority – that’s rather stretching it, firstly you can’t assume anything about LD/Con marginals from this poll, secondly the News of the World are making a lot of assumptions about how much support the Conservatives can rely upon from Northern Ireland.

317 Responses to “The final Sunday polls”

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  1. Unless the golden rule is wrong for the first time in history ,DC will have a majority ,ex lab voters more likely to switch to Libs which could lead to lab 23/24% plus i feel lab will suffer most from stay at home voters .


    “Although from your post Conservative Governments cannot make mistakes? Do you understand what it was like in the 1980s with a 15 percent mortgage?”

    Nowhere in my post is there any suggestion that “Conservative Governments cannot make mistakes”. They do-they did-all Governments do.

    I have already explained to you that I remember as much about the “1980s” as you do. I had a mortgage too then.

  3. Golden rule

    This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position.

  4. @ ALEC

    ” I wouldn’t question his desire to see a better society, nor would he, I hope, question mine. ”

    Of course not Alec.
    Who wants to see a worse society after all.

  5. @Colin -“Who wants to see a worse society after all.”

    There is one UK political party that I suspect of wanting to generate division and strife for their own political ends, but I don’t think we see much of them on here.

  6. @ Alec

    I like your analysis. Very succinct and in very broad agreement. I think we all want a better society and just differ on ways to achieve this. I dont agree with “broken society” theory. My son did the London Marathon last week and the love support and friendship was Britain at its best. Raising money for good causes. It is the “broken” bits that are too oft reported the good things that are ignored.

    Dont forget the main parties AGREE on many things after all.

    Maybe just maybe our life expierences shape our political thinking. If you have a hard time under a certain Governement it stays with you for years. Perhaps we should learn forgive and move on who knows?


    If you look at the 2005 data (from ICM i think), it shows support of about 42% for Labour unweighted, which was weighted down, but perhaps not weighted down enough.

    I dont think its right to say there was an exaggeration of the Labour support, the evidence in the data says the support was there. The Pollsters knew that it wouldnt all turn into votes on the day, but maybe they didnt know by how much.

    Is there any data prior to 1997 that had Labour being “exaggerated” when they were second in the polls, or is this notion of ‘lazy Labour’ only been around since Labour were polling in the lead?

    I dont want a Tory majority, so perhaps i am fixing the facts to suit my opinion.

  8. On page two of Sunday Times, buried away, YouGov figures from 115 lab marginals – projection of con 264, lab 259, lib 98. Which could have been splashed as ‘Poll sensation: neck and neck’.

  9. Fjezierski
    Very interesting. I sugegst you should also post this on the other two live threads.

    -Is there a web site where marginals are identified and marginal polls are updated daily (as opposed to national polls)

  11. THERESA:

    There is ‘Target Seats’ which details the marginals for each of the main parties. You can find that at the top of the second column under Constituency Guide on this site.

    I dont know about the marginal polls being available in one place though.

  12. My prediction for YouGov tonight:
    Con: 37
    Lab: 27
    LD: 26

  13. I expect UKIP to underperform as the vast majority will hold their noses and vote for DC when it comes to the day.

    This should not be seen as unpopularity however because they are popular and the next EU Elections they may well come first,so UKIP voters can keep their powder dry and at least remove Labour from office by voting DC.

    I expect the BNP to do far better than people expect ,labour will see a glimpse of their future in crucial areas for them in what have been for decades safe seats.

    I don’t know if the BNP will win any seats but they could well poll 6% of the vote & as the BNP is mostly in England they could get up to 8% region of the English vote.

    The Conservatives will poll in the 40% region and that will be enough for a 0-50 Maj.

  14. Decision time – I hope you are wrong about the % for the BNP, but it serves as a reminder of why PR would not be so great. I agree with you the Conservatives will poll close to 40%, after a late swing, the signs of which are already starting to appear.

  15. @All

    Having been away for 18 hrs for personal reasons it has not been fun reading a lot of the comments. It seems to me that a lot of you are trying to find ways to thwart the ‘winning’ party from becoming the govt. Why? If say Lab is the largest party, would DC try to thwart GB’s ‘right’ to form a govt either as a minority govt or in a coalition. No he would not, that is precisely what has happened before, the tories abstained in the Queen’s speech and gave the largest party its chance. That is the ‘honorable’ course for a party, not some squalid back room deal to thwart the will of the electorate. If the people have voted Cons as the largest party, then if you believe in the will of the people and democracy, then have the courage and magnamilty to accept it. Why cannot you at least wait until you know the programs the new govt wants to implement before rushing out to condemn. You may well be surprised by the Queen’s Speech.

    DC and the Cons are not stupid. If they have controversal programs, do you think they will start with them on Day 1 with only a small majority or even as a minority govt. Of course they will not! The QS will be bland and so will the first budget. DC’s top priority will be the economy. The Cons have nothad the benefit of knowing the true state of the economy and will only find that out once they are the govt. Then the civil; servants will have to come clean. It is not normal for the civil service to tell a new govt what advice was given to GB, but we do knoe that the Treasury advised against the NI increase and their advice was ignored. What other icebergs are awaiting the n ew govt we do not know, but they will affect its policies, as will new developments internationally, such as Greece etc.

    C has already stated that the leaders of the other major partners will be included in the security/ intelligence briefings given normally only to the govt. If that had happened then the whole saga of sexing up the intelligent briefings etc that eventually led o the Gulf war may not have happened. This new proposal is merely the first step on amore co-operative approach to Govt. The Tories are likely to take a similar approach to other things such as the state of the economy. I like the NC idea of all leaders of the major parties getting to know the true mess that GB has left. We all know there arer tough times comiing for the whole populace. They will not be implemented without a lot of acceptance by all parties. The people have chosen DC’s way of dealing with the future. If Lab and LD try to thwart the Cons, then DC will go to the country again. That is what happened with the last minority (Lab) govt and the peopple supported the govt with a massive majority. It will happen like that again.
    It is the Cons right to rule if they win the election and if they come first in seats and voted they will be deemed the ‘winners’. As for Parliamentary reform, I seem to remember one party wanted FPTP, one wanted STV and one wanted FTV. The people seem to have chosen the party that favoured FPTP. The Cons know that electoral reform will happen and may well take the initiative themselves, you just don’t know at the moment. In the great scheme of things I think any govt from any parrty will have a lot bigger things to wotrry about than trying to force through electoral changes. The economy is in tatters and all yoou hear is electoral reform. Talk about a bunch of Neros.

    Give DC and the Cons their chance, the highest swing in modern history and you think they have not earned it. Stop bickering and bitching like a lot of poor losers, it does you and your parties no credit. This is about all our futures. The people realise that even if you do not

  16. @FrankG

    Gee, someone got out of bed the wrong side today.

    Was your statement “Why cannot you at least wait until you know the programs the new govt wants to implement before rushing out to condemn” intended to be ironic? Why don’t *you* wait until May 7 before declaring anyone the “winner”, or accusing anyone else of “bickering and bitching like a lot of poor losers”?

    FWIW, I don’t think premature triumphalism, presumptuous arrogance, condescension, sneering caricature and contempt for other posters on this blog does you or the party you apparently favour any credit either.

    I do not accept your claim that “the Cons know that electoral reform will happen and may well take the initiative themselves”, given their record of being staunchly and pathologically opposed to it. Nor do I accept your implicit claim that anything other than a Conservative victory plunges the country into economic chaos (that would be a partisan conceit), nor that a Government is incapable of walking and chewing gum at the same time (which is the claim implicit in the notion that we can’t possibly talk about electoral reform whilst the economy is in crisis).

    I doubt very much that this response will cause you to reconsider your obviously low opinion of us mere mortals, but frankly, I’m disinclined to care.

  17. Tonight’s [May 2nd] YouGov Poll:-

    Conservative 34%
    Labour 28%
    Liberal Democrat 29%
    Others 9%

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