It’s the last Sunday before the election, so we have a large number of polls out tonight. I’ve mentioned most of them in a quick post earlier on, but now I’ve had chance to get home and digest them properly. Here are the polls so far

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

They are pretty consistent in showing a slight increase in Conservative support over the last couple of days, with every company now showing them up into the mid-thirties. Most companies have Labour around 27-29%, the exception being Angus Reid who continue to show much lower levels of support for the Government. Most have the Liberal Democrats in the high 20s, with ComRes a bit lower, BPIX slightly higher. All five of these polls would produce a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party – YouGov would have the Conservatives at around 284, ICM at around 275, ComRes 315, Angus Reid 310, BPIX 264.

There was also an ICM poll of marginals in the News of the World. This was the same 96 seats ICM polled for the previous ICM marginal survey here. It showed support in these seats at CON 35%(-1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 22%(+3) – so only a minor Lib Dem boost in these seats. These levels of support equate to a swing to the Conservatives of 6.8%, so just the swing they would need for an overall majority, and about 1.8% more than the national swing suggested in ICM’s GB poll in the Sunday Telegraph (the News of the World has extrapolated this over the whole country to claim that the Conservatives would have an overall majority – that’s rather stretching it, firstly you can’t assume anything about LD/Con marginals from this poll, secondly the News of the World are making a lot of assumptions about how much support the Conservatives can rely upon from Northern Ireland.


317 Responses to “The final Sunday polls”

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  1. @AW
    ” secondly the News of the World are making a lot of assumptions about how much support the Conservatives can rely upon from Northern Ireland. ”

    I have actually complained to Sky News and Ofcom about the validity of this claim and that SkyNews were plastering it all over their broadcast (which they have since removed)

  2. As LD supporter I think that we are heading toward a Hung Parliament clearly .I think the momentum is with the Tories but that we now have a ‘shy labour ‘ issue with the polls. I see Labour getting back into 2nd (just) with LD close behind and the Tories on about 34

  3. today’s poll gives an average of Con 35.6 Lab 26.8 Lib Dem 27.8 which is a hung parliament even if you take a few points of Lab and give them to Con. Conservative show a rising trend over the last 2 weeks but not enough to give them an outright majority. Save for a big gaffe by one of the leaders this week, we’ll have a hung parliament next Friday.

  4. Cons have the “big mo” at the best time-the last few days of the campaign. I would expect another 1 or 2 point increase by the last day. One certain fact-GB will not be PM on Friday morning.

  5. @ Roger H

    ‘Don’t underestimate the motivating force an increased expectation of Cameron in Downing Street will have on the majority who want ‘anything but the Tories’.

    Totally agree -Cameron Heading for Downing Street type headlines will galvanise the anti tory vote plus the ‘shy labour’ factor will come in to play.

  6. How about a Lab-Lib coalition after May 6th in the event of a hung parliament?

  7. Does there appear to be a slow but consistent dropping off in LD support? If I were Labour, I’d play this up and pretend that it’s a fight between Tories and Labour. If I were LibDem, I’d work hard to make sure such an interpretation doesn’t gain traction. I’m sure the Tories will be pleased by a lIbDem / Lab battle. It will could liit tactical voting.

  8. @ Colin Green

    Hope you’re right Colin. Undeniably the Tories have the momentum, but I just dont see them getting trudging out of the porridge of the mid 30 range in the time that’s left.

    Very, very close.

  9. We are all grown up not be decieved by all this polling every well.They result are based on perception. There is a gang up in the media to defeat Labour because Gordon Brown does not have an English accent.That man has done his best for the past two years.

    I can wait for May 7 th to come so as to see the real Poll result. So my friends, it is too early to start jumping up. Many people will decide as they enter the polling booth.This polls will even shore up labour votes and lets not forget about tactical Voting, capable of giving labour a majority. Five days a lot in Politics

  10. The only party that will go up in the Polls this week is the Tories. I expect them to be polling 37-39% by Thursday

  11. @ DJB One certain fact-GB will not be PM on Friday morning.

    and probably for a week or two after that, unless there’s a clear winner for the Queen to ask to become PM. Wonder will her tory instincts make her try to prevent a Lib-Lab coalition? She could be quite a player in the next couple of weeks.

  12. @ Graham AD

    If you don’t believe in polls, what are you doing on this site?

  13. I’m still where I’ve been for quite some time: C will get either a small overall majority or fall just short, but still form a minority single party government.
    LD should gain around 15 seats, effectively all from Labour, and may just shade second place in the national vote.
    i doubt there’ll be much change in the polls between now and Thursday, but I suspect the C strength of support is the strongest, so they may go up a per cent or two, Labour will be nearer the lower end of the range of polls, and the LD vote may fade slightly, as it is to some extent a protest against the big two – and I would expect Others to go up in the actual vote, especially in the UK share including N Ireland, when people see the truly enormous range of choice of candidates. There must be easily the most candidates in total ever.

  14. @AN MAILLEACH

    I wish i could meet you here may 7th. 45 million British People will decide not 1500 people, so apart of westiminster villlage, the country is yet to decide and they will do on 6th may Period.

  15. Anything over 300 seats, and I think the Tories are very likely to form the next government. Anything under that, and a Lib-Lab coalition is the most probable. The problem for Labour is that the marginals have now consistently shown a swing of around 1.8%-2% greater than the national swing. Therefore, on this basis, you’d have to conclude that all the polls tonight would result in the Tories getting at least 300 seats, if not more.

  16. Whats been making me laugh for months now is that every time there is a trend away from the Tories their supporters insist that the polls are wrong, the media are biased or people are stupid and it WILL change.

    When there is a trend towards the Tories its never going to change and they will win by a landslide.
    I’m standing by what I’ve been saying since Christmas. Tories will get the most votes, Labour will get the most seats. Remember that the Tories have to win all manner of seats they haven’t won for a long time – even more so with the LibDems resurgent and likely to at least deny the Tories any steals from them (or even stealing a few seats off the Tories).

    To win these kind of seats they need to have major tactical voting in their favour, with supporters of the LibDems and others abandoning their first choice in a get them out strategy.

    With the LibDems likely to be the kingmaker in a hung parliament, why would LibDem voters abandon their own party and vote for a party who not only would deny them their place in the sun but has no intention of giving ground on PR? And even in seats lower down the Tories target list, a 3-way split of votes makes it a toss up whether the sitting Labour MP gets tossed out by blue or yellow, or sails down the middle as the anti-vote divides neatly before them.

    Its been a good effort by the Tory press, but frankly if anything it just reinforces the message for the millions of voters who still despise them.

  17. Interesting the Angus Reid polls have Lab much lower at 23p. Via an Economist article, apparently the AR method is a very different. Rather than just asking for intention – they show people a ballot, with relevant local candidate names. This method (in Canada) produced very accurate results. Article also notes LAB always tends to do better in polls than actual results by a few points. I’m new to the site – has the AG difference been heavily discussed already or just discounted? If they are correct then Lab could be heavily wiped out, leaving the Tory surge if it continues into next week enough to get a proper working majority.

  18. @Graham AD

    Bizarre. It’s like shouting “There is no God” at the vicar, from the front pew.

  19. “Whats been making me laugh for months now is that every time there is a trend away from the Tories their supporters insist that the polls are wrong, the media are biased or people are stupid and it WILL change.”

    Actually I can’t remember one single Tory calling the YouGov poll last night a ‘rogue’, despite it being unfavourable for them.

    To be fair, all supporters rubbish polls and believe what they want to hear. Lab/Lib/Tory supporters are no different in that regard!

  20. Poisioned Challice:

    Do the Tories really want to win this election? I ask simply because if DC is PM with a majority of 10 or less Yes he will make the savage cuts we all know are coming one way or another. HE will get the blame and another Election ensues in 2 years when The Tories will be wiped out with a Labour landslide.
    Wouldnt it be better to have a hung Parliament let Lib/Labour have their pact and when the S+++T hits the fan the Tories get swept to power when the coalition collapses. Just an unbiased viewpoint. What to you blues think???

  21. Interesting to note: The modal average of these 5 polls gives C 35,L 27,LD 28, which is exactly the YouGov numbers.

  22. PREAMBLE
    * Following the 2nd debate, things settled down at about CON 34, LAB 27.5, LIB 29.
    * In an earlier post here, I set out what would be necessary to denote a change from this.
    * So what have we got?

    COMPARISON
    * The averages of today’s polls are listed below, and what I said in the previous post is given in brackets
    * LIB average: 27.8 (“between 27.0 and 30.9: no change, just MOE wibbling around 29”)
    * LAB average: 26.8 (“between 25.0 and 28.9: no change, just MOE wibbling around 27”)
    * CON average: 35.6 (“between 32.0 and 35.9: no change, just MOE wibbling around 34”)

    THOUGHTS
    * Technically, there’s no change here: the averages are all MOE wibbling around 34/27/29
    * However, I do note that others are stating a surge in CON support.
    * This surge is possible.
    * I would like to see a (few) more polls with an CON average on/over 36 before we can say definitely.

  23. @Matt

    I Agree…300 seat mark will become all important…Con largest party…if they top 300 inevitable pressure for Lib Dem to t’olerate’ a Con minority colation (with possible DUP support)

    If on other hand its 295 ish and 245+80..then a Lib/Lab Gov with nationalist support.

    Either way GB goes

  24. Colin Green: “today’s poll gives an average of Con 35.6 Lab 26.8 Lib Dem 27.8 which is a hung parliament even if you take a few points of Lab and give them to Con. Conservative show a rising trend over the last 2 weeks but not enough to give them an outright majority. Save for a big gaffe by one of the leaders this week, we’ll have a hung parliament next Friday.”

    Given that Gordon Brown’s faux pas hasn’t caused much of a flicker in the polls, it is hard to see what this might be. Let us face it, GB showed rudeness, hypocrisy and that he does “get it” (his words) about immigration, a high voter concern.

    What may change things:

    a) Economic meltdown as Greece becomes “Lehmans Part II – No Money for Bailouts”; and
    b) A simple focusing of minds.

    Doubtless, we can all think of good reasons why this will cause sensible people to vote for their own side, and panic foolish souls into supporting the other side.

    But, apart from Clegg in the First Debate, I do not think that anyone can reliably ascribe any movement in the polls to any event. We can, however, list many major events and press onslaughts that had absolutely no discernable effect!!

  25. @ Peter Lucas

    “Poisioned Challice:

    Do the Tories really want to win this election?”

    ____________________

    They’ve been in the wilderness for 13 years and their tongues are tripping them for anything that happens to be in that challice.

  26. @Peter Lucas

    It may be harder than you think to force an early election. John Major’s govt was technically a minority administration in 1996, but he was still able to choose when to go to the country.

    So the Tories are probably reckoning on being able to ride out the storm and call the next election in happier economic times (2014/2015)

  27. I’d hate to be a Labour or LibDem PM trying to bring in massive cuts, in contradiction of my promises, with a coalition government that only just had tiny majority if both parties’ MPs all played ball.

    The cuts would come in, but each vote would see a lot of Labour MPs and some LibDems rebel, and the government would have to go cap in hand to the Official Opposition for every vote.

    It would be interesting politics, but I think the PM would end up having a stroke.

  28. Icm & Yg show were we are

    35%
    28%
    27.5% (maybe 28%)

    ComR is a bit low for yellow and a bit ig for blue…

    BPIX is harmless enough except I think they have blue 1% short (not sure if they re-weight DKs…

    AR is up a creek……….

  29. “Do the Tories really want to win this election? I ask simply because if DC is PM with a majority of 10 or less Yes he will make the savage cuts we all know are coming one way or another. HE will get the blame and another Election ensues in 2 years when The Tories will be wiped out with a Labour landslide.
    Wouldnt it be better to have a hung Parliament let Lib/Labour have their pact and when the S+++T hits the fan the Tories get swept to power when the coalition collapses. Just an unbiased viewpoint. What to you blues think???”

    With the electoral reform plans under a Tory government, it would be much harder for Labour to be re-elected, let alone win a landslide. At the moment, the Tories have to get a much higher share of the vote just to get a majority because of how the constituency boundaries are. However, this would change.

  30. A dangerously misleading averaging of tonights polls would give CamCon 296 seas with Lab around 242 and a sad 83 for the party once again claiming to be breaking through.

    LD have done this since I don’t know when and on FPTP ALL Clegg and his band of followers will do will be to erode the anti tory vote. It’s been done in the past, 83, 87.

    IMO (consistent since the March round-up) CamCon will achieve +10 maj, or around 331. This allows a firming up over the last few days.

    In the end, POLLSTER8’s IoS will be about right.

    Thank you Tory – hopefully the £ will now rise a little against a basket of important currencies and I can emigrate!

  31. @Graham,

    You told me the polls would be neck and neck one week ago. Apologies if I ignore your post.

    These polls will be close to the final result. No game changers now.

    rich

  32. I’ll do the calculations (average) for tonight’s polls once the final one is published. I expect the average to be around 8-9%, or thereabouts.

  33. @Peter Lucas

    There is a certain logic to DC ensuring other leaders hands are dirtied by the cuts – he might do well to take NC up on the offer he made in the final debate. The only thing is, when have you ever seen a politician voluntarily share power with an opponent when he/she didn’t absolutely have to, other than during World War?
    Would Gordon Brown share power if he didn’t have to?

  34. Ian Bailey,

    You’re just sticking your head in the sand and shouting “la, la, la, la, la”.

  35. Just come in to a site that is working -well done AW!

    Lift for Con due to barrage from news outlets against the other two (DC was almost absent except pictures of him swanning around contentedly – ‘PM in waiting’ headlines).

    It can’t last unless you can arrange for a mad heckler or a car crash to appear everywhere (then the number of ‘party seconds’ shown are of the heckle or the crash, not the speaker).

    A period of weekend peace wil even things up again – perhaps.

    It ought not to be like this ought it? What a wonder that only 2 points were gained by Con during the nonsense.

  36. US observer
    -If CON do not win; will DC be forced out as leader?

    ======

    This is not to assume CON will not win? It is just a question?

  37. @Anthony

    Is there a particular reason why YouGov has not published yesterday’s full poll report?

  38. Cameron will not be forced out as leader unless he does worse than Howard in 2005, and probably not even then. He might resign if he doesn’t get to be PM, but again I doubt it.

  39. Thanks for you replies. Just one thought when a Tory Governement makes cuts that decent people know are needed there will be strikes and civil unrest. With a small majority the PM (DC) will need some “balls” to weather the tide of opinion. Just look whats happenning in Greece. I still think on balance there will be a Tory majority of between 1 and 10. The polls show they are increasing their support albeit slightly.

  40. @MATT
    -You mentioned a final poll to be published tonight.
    Which poll are you referring to?

  41. Alan Calder – the difference in AngusReid is nothing to do with that questioning, they only started doing that for the election campaign, and the big difference in the level of Labour support has been evidence since they started regular polling in the UK last year. I had my best shot at explaining it here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2453

    Howard – there’s nothing I’ve done to make it work again, it’s just a less busy hour! I will probably shut down comments for an hour or so every day at the busy period now to take the pressure off the server (all articles will be crossed posted to the back up site at http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com where comments will always be open), and will keep comments entirely to the back up site on the eve of the election/ election night to try and keep the main site up.

  42. @Peter Lucas
    That’s ok except for one thing. If Brown gets back then he is going to stitch up future voting with a system that will ensure the Tories will never be in power again. He is calling it PR but it is no such thing. That must never be allowed to happen.
    As for tactical voting, in my view it is dishonest. You should vote with your beliefs, whatever they are. If Lib Dems constantly vote Labour, they are NEVER going to win enough seats to form a Govt If they cant see that, then perhaps it’s just as well. The whole thought process is just bizarre.
    And finally, perhaps we have now reached the stage where Labour are hated just as much as the Tories were 15 years ago? So watch out for anti Labour tactical voting perhaps.

  43. I think we are seeing the effects of David Cameron having won the 3rd debate with the public. That would explain it better IMO.

  44. “You mentioned a final poll to be published tonight.
    Which poll are you referring to?”

    I think there may be a Mori. Not sure though. Just thought I could remember there being 6.

  45. @Anthony,

    I posted a q on the Harris thread about your weighting of DKs.

    I know on occasion it pushes the blues up 1%.

    Does it ever push the yellows down?

    After wreweighting DKs on 28/04/10 it appears to depress them from c28.8% to 28%.

    Many thanks… :)

  46. BTW I would not want to give the impression that I consider these polls to be particularly significant – there is a slight lift for Con and a hardening of Lab. My post was a wonder that is was so little change and perhaps the hope that these ghastly people have less influence than they suppose. The track record supports that view until now.

  47. Xiby – you mean the tables for yesterday’s poll? No idea – maybe the chap who is on weekend duty this morning forgot, or hadn’t been given the tables…

    (…actually, that might well be the reason. PK would have sent the final tables yesterday, and was in rehearsals for election night all day, so perhaps he didn’t send them over to go up).

  48. Time for one last twist in the tale?
    A final Tory press attack on GB / NC backfires?
    NC’s temper gets the better of him?
    The Dark Lord conjures up one last masterstroke before he is packed off to Europe to replace Lady Ashton?

  49. Matt
    I think we are seeing the effects of David Cameron having won the 3rd debate with the public. That would explain it better IMO.
    ************************************************
    It’s looking better for us mate!

    Shame that as we get nearer and actually at the result, there are going to be increasing amounts of bitter posts, we are already getting a smattering now.

    I can honestly say, that if things were looking better for Labour, or they somehow got in, I would be gutted, as I think the Country needs a change, but I would still congratulate them.

    Bitter head in the sand partisan comments are v.boring. To learn, you need to analyse and see where you have gone wrong, and I hoping that is what the Conservative party have finally done.

  50. @ Anthony

    Thanks for that. I hope they are put up soon enough.

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