I am away from the computer properly until later tonight, but we’ve already got some of Sunday morning’s polls out.

So far ICM in the Sunday Telegraph are showing CON 36%, LAB 29%, LDEM 27%. There is a second ICM poll in the News of the World of marginal seats which I’ll look at properly later – the News of the World are saying it predicts a Tory majority of 4.

Angus Reid in the Sunday Express have CON 35%, LAB 23%, LDEM 29%.

ComRes in the Sunday Mirror have CON 38%, LAB 28%, LDEM 25%.

Definitely YouGov to come later, and probably more. I’ll update properly then.

UPDATE: Traffic keeps knocking the site down tonight – I’ve switched off comments for now. My original plan was to set up a second cut down site with seperate hosting to allow people to comment on the eve of the election and election night when the traffic would definitely bring the site down, but it seems like I’ve already reached the point where the server simply can’t cope with the traffic, so I’m going to set it up later on tonight instead.

UPDATE2: The UKPollingReport backup site is here – http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com/. It is still only half set up, but you may as well bookmark it now for whenever the site goes down, or whenever comments are shut.


139 Responses to “ComRes and ICM polls”

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  1. Rogerh
    I am a Labour supporter but a tory majority is now inevitable.

    The tories have to capture more seats than they have since 1924. That looked improbable at the beginning of the campaign.
    But as Andrew Grice pointed out in today’s Independent, it is ironically the rise of the Liberal vote at Labour’s expense, splitting the anti tory vote and allowing the tories to come through the middle to win, which makes a tory majority possible. Just like 1983, when Thatcher’s vote fell by 2% but her majority rose by 100 because the Alliance took votes from Labour.

    Nothing can now prevent Cameron becoming prime minister with a majority even though it looked unlikely four weeks ago. And he has Nick Clegg to thank for it.

  2. @Mark

    You forget that all political parties are themselves coalitions.

    If there is a very small Con majority, DC will have the same problems with his vigorous Eurosceptics as John Major did in the 1992-97 parliament. There will be back room deals, we just won’t see them covered on TV ;)

  3. “I see an acceleration of the Tory bandwagon, and the snowball effect , as others have mentioned, is an important factor……….people like to join the winning team.”

    Don’t underestimate the motivating force an increased expectation of Cameron in Downing Street will have on the majority who want ‘anything but the Tories’.

  4. @dave

    “Nothing can now prevent Cameron becoming prime minister with a majority”

    Isn’t that what Neil Kinnock thought before he fell over on the beach?

  5. “its Clegg who won it for us” The Sun 7/5/10

  6. Has anyone tracked down the ICM data for the marginals?

  7. A brilliant day of polling for the Tories. According to the BBC, a marginal poll out tonight shows the Tories would already just about sneak a majority.

    “Tomorrow’s News of the World will carry an opinion poll conducted in 96 Labour-Conservative marginal seats, writes the paper’s political editor Ian Kirby in his blog. He says their polling suggests David Cameron is “on course to win 311 seats – a massive gain of 113 from the last election”. That means, he continues, that the Conservatives could have a majority of four in the new parliament – with the support of the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland.”

    Their lead seems to be around 8-9% on the numerous polls we have had so far. Jolly good!!!

  8. “I am a Labour supporter but a tory majority is now inevitable.”

    Nothing is inevitable and a Conservative majority remains improbable. No-one really knows what effect the improvement in LibDem support will have or how it will be distributed.

  9. @Colin Green

    “Isn’t that what Neil Kinnock thought before he fell over on the beach?”

    I wasnt aware Kinnock had an opinion about whether Cameron would become Prime Minister 27 years later.

    What I do know is that when the centre left vote is split evenly, the tories nearly always win.

    I repeat a Cameron majority is now a certainty. And I say that with sorrow.

  10. I have been viewing this site for the last month, and very good it is too.I would just like to ask whether those who have already postal voted are included in the polls,what is the expected % of postal votes to date,and what is the closing date for these. If these votes are not included in the polls ,then it would suggest that they were sent when the figures were about 34/28/28 and therefore to get to 38 which IMO the Conservatives need for a slim majority,means they need to average maybe 39-40% on May 6th

  11. We are all grown up not be decieved by all this polling every well.They result are based on perception. There is a gang up in the media to defeat Labour because Gordon Brown does not have an English accent.That man has done his best for the past two years.

    I can wait for May 7 th to come so as to see the real Poll result. So my friends, it is too early to start jumping up. Many people will decide as they enter the polling booth.This polls will even shore up labour votes and lets not forget about tactical Voting, capable of giving labour a majority. Five days a lot in Politics

  12. Grem3 – no, but the NoTW reported “4 seat majority” is nonsense spin – its another poll that suggests a hung parliament.

    NotW says it shows a change from the last ICM marginals that gives the Tories 3 more seats from Labour, so they will be a similar number of seats short as per the last ICM marginals poll.

  13. John H – polls will all include some people with postal votes. Most pollsters will now be varying the questions they ask to reflect this (asking things like “How will you vote on Thursday or, if you have already voted by post, how did you vote?”

  14. @ WanderingWelshman

    brown and clegg must grow a pair of the proverbials

    and next week come out in the press and appeal for tactical voting to prevent a tory majority

    simple as that

    if they dont , then its curtains for electoral reform and the end of both of them

    ______________________________________

    I thought Clegg’s response in the Guardian today to the question of the danger of letting the Tories through to an overall majority by attacking Labour was interesting:

    “The Tories are nowhere near getting an overall majority. We are absolutely going for broke so far as the share of the vote is concerned”.

    I think the trend in the polls that show the Tories well capable of getting that OM might see him reappraise the wisdom of rejecting the tactical vote.

  15. I have been reading all your postings with interest, without commenting, for some time. Now that I am seeing the postings of despair from Labour supporters I feel I should point out that compared to the polls published just before the election was called Labour are down abouit 3%. Conservatives are down about 2% and Lib Dems are up by about 8%. More voters have switched to Lib Dem from Con and DK than from Labour. In any event the effect of the “Lib Dem surge” on Lab and Con has been similar.

  16. @JOHN H

    The pollsters change their questions to “will you vote for or have already voted for” (or something similar) to capture postal votes. So they are included in the polling.

  17. @RogerH……………”anything but Tories”, they will be balanced by the “anything but Labour” group. :-)

  18. The momentum is definitely with the Tories now, but it’s still far from over IMO. The encouraging thing is that even the very reputable ICM and YouGov have the lead as 7% and 8% respectively. I’m very excited, but I would still caution those of us in the blue corner that the polls can and will change in the next 5 days. Let’s hope they move even more in our favour!

  19. Don’t forget a lot of postal votes will already have been cast well before this modest uplift in the Conservative lead, so all still to play for!

  20. Quite a few people are discussing the Liberal vote and I thought I’d throw in my personal – and obviously subjective – viewpoint on this topic.

    The Liberals always seemed sincere to me but at the same time rather naive. NC specifically reminded me of an extremely brilliant Richard III put on by the RSC I saw a few years ago. However, I was watching his speech to the Royal college of Nursing the other night and his sincerity and the sense of his policy completely won me over.

    The problem came with the third debate: I don’t know whether it was seeing the exact same play three weeks in a row or that he just had a bad night, but I went off him somewhat. Some of the magic was still there but suspension of disbelief was harder to muster.

  21. Talk of a Conservative majority is a bit premature. Take the average of the last 10 polls, add 2 points for Con and 2 for Lib Dem, subtract 2 for Lab and 2 for “others” and feed it into a swingometer and you’re still 12 short of a majority.

    we may be getting close to a Conservative government but we’re not there yet. A slip by any of the parties in the next few days could swing it either way.

  22. Incidentally although I’m saying that a tory majority is now a certainty, its not the end of the story is it?

    A tory majority of 4 would not be a working majority and almost certainly there would have to be another election within 2 years. Consider the following probability:

    Tories win a majority of 4 on May 6.
    October David Milliband becomes Labour leader.
    Christmas 2010 tories are deeply unpopular and are 20 points behind in the polls.
    2011 tories lose majority in Commons as cuts make them the most unpopular government ever.
    2012 Labour sweeps back to power with Milliband PM as voters dont fall for LDs for second time.

    Labour supporters dont despair. Sometimes in defeat lies the seeds of victory.

  23. “NotW says it shows a change from the last ICM marginals that gives the Tories 3 more seats from Labour, so they will be a similar number of seats short as per the last ICM marginals poll.”

    According to the BBC, the ICM marginal poll will give the Tories 311 seats – short of an ‘absolute majority, but means that the Conservatives could have a majority of four in the new parliament with the support of the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland.

    Hence, it does suggest a Tory majority now. Yippee!

  24. If the Conservatives get something around the 300 mark, the crucial figure *throughout the subsequent parliament* is the combined Lab/LD score. If it’s large enough to possibly carry the day on a no confidence vote, there will be constant manoeuvring on all sides. The nationalists may abstain on such motions, or vote on either side – its all very fluid.

    If DC has 315+ MPs, it will be very difficult in practice to vote down the govt, even though he is technically short of a majority.

    If DC has appreciably less than 300, then Lab+LD will probably have enough to vote down the Queen’s speech – if they want to!

    ..and of course all of the above is moot if DC does get a majority!

  25. Bottom line ….Lab behind Tory….7% 10% 12%….

    Lib/Lab coalition slipping away

    I will still stick to 36% 29% 26%….prediction….

  26. @Dave,

    The problem with your scenario is that Labour would then take over and have to continue the cuts that the Tories started, or else have the word financial markets “do a Greece” on us.

  27. I recall when Labour was polling 32/33% before the budget saying that they had recovered the relatively easy votes and that incremental increases would be difficult.
    In the same way the upward trend for the conservatives has to be a decelerating gain.
    Not a party point just statiscally obvious – we should not let the LDs surge after the first debate tempt us to think surges are normal.
    I expect the cons to reach 38% (always have) but the last 2% to reach 40% will be much harder than going from 34-38%.
    A things stand the split vote will make 38% enough and Labour supporters (like me) can’t complain after 2005.
    Glimmer of hope for anti-cons is that LDs will hold most seats and maybe take a few cons (those off Lab irrelavant in this context) meaning Con have to take around more seats to gain outright control. Maybe needing 7.5-8% swing from Labour in the last few seats needed, still a tough ask.
    Will these polls lead to anti-con tactical voting and/or to a narrower LD effort?

  28. A majority of 4 would be gone in by elections by 2012.

    David Milliband for PM 2012………………………..

  29. I honestly fail to see where the Tory momentum is. Come back next Monday, if these numbers keep on going up then i will agree.

    Its funny how one day of polling gets everyone in feverish.

  30. @MATT
    I think the BBC is reporting something reported in NoTW – so not entirely unbiased…

    Would very much like to see the data.

  31. With the planned changes of electoral boundaries (and 10% reduction in MPs) planned under a Tory government, I wouldn’t worry too much about a very small majority. It would go someway to evening the playing field, and make it much harder for Labour to be re-elected – so that even if there was a GE shortly after, Labour and the Libs would have to do a lot better than at present to deprive the Tories of a majority.

    One of the well-known BBC political reporters (Nick Robinson, I think) recently said that if the Tories got a majority this time, it would be very hard to shift them in the next 10 years. Not saying his word should be taken as gospel, but it does demonstrate how much Labour would have to do in the polls to deprive the Tories of power in future GEs.

  32. Anthony

    the questions they ask to reflect this (asking things like “How will you vote on Thursday or, if you have already voted by post, how did you vote?”

    I hope not because that is illegal

  33. @Dave

    David Milliband for PM 2012………………………..

    —————————————————————-
    Not if the tories satrted with 330 or more.

    You have the no starting Sinn Fein to discount

    You have the Unionists who can be bought

    You have the fact that the SNP abstain on English matters.

    Anyway the tories would have reduced te number of MPs and re-drawn the boundaries by the to remove the bias towards Labour.

  34. As the Tories appear to in OM territory, will this focus the minds of Labour and LibDem voters to think about tactical voting finally.

    If they don’t, the chance of a fair voting system will be gone for at least another term.

    Also am a little concerned about the blatent biased reporting on Sky News over the poll results today. They seem very pleased.

  35. @Mark
    “Tory majority now likely.

    Al least this will result in stable Govt & no back room deals”

    A stable gov’t pursuing wrong policies is still bad for the country. There are good arguments for so called strong gov’t but there are equally strong ones for coalitions…..vested interests become diluted

    On the pools, I do believe the Cons are on a wave…assisted by a slick (but no-substance) performance by Cameron in the 3rd debate, media bias for Cons this weekend and some awful Brown performances and weak Lab campaign.

    *sigh*

  36. Its history repeating itself:
    It happened in 1924, 1950, 1951, 1964, 1970, 1992-a panic surge to the tories as the polls create a self denying prophecies. What you poll experts often fail to see is that polls dont just predict results, they also prevent them.

    And under our system a split centre left means victory for the right.

    As a Labour supporter I acknowledge the certain victory of Cameron with sorrow but also realise that it may be an election which is good to lose. As someone said recently whoever wins the 2010 election will be so unpopular it will be out of power for a generation.

    Viva Milliband.

  37. I think blaming Clegg/Lib Dems is – to coin a phrase – a bit desperate. Are Labour supporters suggesting they should just pack up and go away, leaving the Tories a free run at all of the South West seats and so on?

    It’s a system that is fault, not any one party fighting on it’s own distinctive programme.

    Having said that, the mistake I believe Clegg has made is to go from “the people are the one’s who decide” – obvious, but sensible, to “it’s a two horse race” – wrong and stupid.

    I am amazed that he, or his advisers, couldn’t see how incompatible those two statements are. It may be that he got carried – away but he shouldn’t..

    Nothing is inevitable, but the chances of Cameron getting enough seats to run a minority government have increased.

    However if they do manage that I believe that their problems will only just be beginning: there will hardly be a single Labour or Lib Dem voter supporting their policies and the move towards electoral reform won’t just go away.

  38. @TREFOR HUNTER

    The pollsters can report on postal votes providing they do not include the postal figures by themselves and so they can be mixed in with those yet to vote.

  39. Apologies to all my friends in Wales. I meant to say the SNP absatin on English AND WELSH matters. OOPs

  40. Looking at the trend, it is clear that the tories have improved their position. On my scatter graph the number 34% has consistently popped up every day since the 22nd, with observations 1-2 % away from that. Today isn’t any different, but there is a heavier weight upwards. I’d guess that they’ve moved from 34-35% and that the single 38% is a normal MOE. Further polls will tell.

    Labour is probably on 27-28%. The strange AR, Harris and OnePoll numbers are far off the others – but three different companies all getting labour in the low 20s? I don’t know what to think here.

    Comres continues to show a big swing in the libdem support. The average of all the polls is 28.5%, it’s hard to dispute the number.

    The story seems to be that the Tories are on a massive run, but really there’s just one poll showing 38, with the others suggesting a slighter 35% real lead.

  41. I disagree with those who say a Tory majority is a certainty. It is just a lot more likely than yesterday/previously.

  42. Trefor – as Andrew says, its completely fine to ask it, you just can’t publish it seperately. The guidance agreed after the investigation in 2004 is that it is perfectly fine to include postal voters who have already voted in with other voters who haven’t – you just can’t report them seperately.

  43. Isn’t the case that the Tories always have to clean up the mess that Labour creates, then Labour get in again to make another one. It’s a cycle caused by our electoral system, allowing people with no talent to run the country, I don’t know what the answer is, but it isn’t the Gordon Brown model, that much is obvious.

  44. @ Bumpy,

    it is evident you need a hug, and some vallium, (and maybe if you are lucky some brains)

  45. Tory majority now likely.

    Al least this will result in stable Govt & no back room deals.

    No… we all just get screwed up front and to our faces.

    Let us suppose the tories are elected by what amounts to no more than 1 in 4 adults of this country… will not their legitimacy be called in to question at every turn …as a result of the issues raised in this election?

  46. Bumpy & Dave

    Labour has had possibly the worst week any party could have had ……..but they are still in contention.
    That should tell you something. It’s not over yet.

    I think this is the best the Tories will do. After the Bank holiday, the polls will tighten again all next week.
    This time there will be no leader’s debate to boost support and the anti-tory vote will sort itself out.

    Photo finish!

  47. ”anything but Tories”, they will be balanced by the “anything but Labour” group.

    Do you really believe that? If so you’re in for a disappointment. (Check the relative negative reaction to each possible election outcome in the YouGov survey from about ten days ago.)

  48. Are MORI publishing a poll soon? They are certainly keeping the LibDem average down on Sky News!

  49. Bumpy, I think you’re on the wrong site. Read the postings policy, adhere to them or go away. If you don’t I’m sure Anthony will oblige us in removing your noise from the site.

  50. Ken

    “The tories always have to clean up the mess that Labour creates”

    Really?

    I seem to remember Labour in 1974 coming to power after the tories had plunged us into darkness in the only three day week in our history.
    I seem to remember Blair coming to power in 1997 with the health service on its knees and education starved of resources.
    I seem to remember tory chancellor Reginald Maudling apologising to incoming Labour Chancellor James Callaghan for the leaving the country in such a mess.

    And I remember Thatcher coming to power in 1979 to clean up the Labour mess of 1 million unemplyed only to treble it to a bigger mess of 3 million.

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