I am away from the computer properly until later tonight, but we’ve already got some of Sunday morning’s polls out.

So far ICM in the Sunday Telegraph are showing CON 36%, LAB 29%, LDEM 27%. There is a second ICM poll in the News of the World of marginal seats which I’ll look at properly later – the News of the World are saying it predicts a Tory majority of 4.

Angus Reid in the Sunday Express have CON 35%, LAB 23%, LDEM 29%.

ComRes in the Sunday Mirror have CON 38%, LAB 28%, LDEM 25%.

Definitely YouGov to come later, and probably more. I’ll update properly then.

UPDATE: Traffic keeps knocking the site down tonight – I’ve switched off comments for now. My original plan was to set up a second cut down site with seperate hosting to allow people to comment on the eve of the election and election night when the traffic would definitely bring the site down, but it seems like I’ve already reached the point where the server simply can’t cope with the traffic, so I’m going to set it up later on tonight instead.

UPDATE2: The UKPollingReport backup site is here – http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com/. It is still only half set up, but you may as well bookmark it now for whenever the site goes down, or whenever comments are shut.


139 Responses to “ComRes and ICM polls”

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  1. Great polls for the tories. Trending towards tories a majority in reach

  2. This is seriously good news for the Tories and bad news for the others. They’ve picked up the support just when they need, and they’ve got to be odds on now for a clear majority.

  3. Average tonight-YG/CR/ICM/AR

    36/28/26

    +2/nc/-1

    Hope it isn’t just MoE !

  4. Good news for the Tories, yes, but as always only in relation to expectations.

    The most likely outcome is still looking like largest party/minority government for Cameron. That’s a pretty meagre morsel compared to where we were at the start of the year, especially given Mervyn King’s prophesy.

    But, after the torrid few weeks we’ve had I’ll take an upswing on the last weekend of the campaign with open arms.

  5. Looks like the Tories who drifted to the Lib Dems are drifting back. Unless the left-leaning Libs return to Labour, Cameron could be in for an outright majority.

    Clegg may have blown it by going too hard for the Labour vote, To ensure his hung parliament. he needed the Tories to poll low.

  6. What was YouGov?

  7. Latest YouGov / Sunday Time poll: Con: 35; Lib Dem: 28; Lab: 27. Fieldwork 30 April-1 May 2010; sample: 1,483

  8. The betting markets have gone crazy. A 15% swing towards overall Tory majority since 5pm

  9. @ STATTO

    “Clegg may have blown it by going too hard for the Labour vote”

    I really think three debates defeated him.

    The first flush of enthusiasm faded with his increasingly shrill & repetetive stuff about “the two old parties”-and he was exposed by DC on a couple of policy items in the last debate. …….reality set in .

  10. You Gov C35 L27 LD 28

    There are 5 polls out so far today if you include one poll. There are 7 or 8 points between the highest and lowest for each party. More than 6 (the biggest supported by margin of error) and you should treat with caution. Remove One Poll and the range drops to 3 and 4 points for Con and Lib Dem but is still 6 points for Labour. The Angus Reid score for Labour seems to be the odd ball, though it is the same as AR’s last two polls for Labour.

    A brace of good results for Con. Lib Dems average today only 0.5 points above Labour. Could Lab overtake before polling day?

  11. American here — so several of the latest polls have the Lib Dems back in 3rd, although a couple (Harris, Angus-Reid) have them well ahead of Labour.

    So what’s the sense of people over there? Does it seem like the Libs really will take 2nd in votes or will they slide back into third, like the Alliance did in ’83?

  12. Quite a bit of range between the various polls, though averaged the change is pretty small.
    I’m looking forward to tomorrows’ polls, see if these indicate a trend or just random fluctuation.

  13. All still to play for ,you must be joking its all over,it will only get worse for Labour ,i said that it would finish on may 6th as follows
    Cons -40
    Lib/dems-24
    Lab-22
    anyone want to say i am miles out now ?
    its on yesterdays thread unless its been removed again !

  14. Can’t take Angus Reid seriously.Tories are moving away,Labour is firming up at around 29% and the Lib Dems are slipping back.

  15. Remember ICM typically overestimate Labour’s position by 3 points. Labour are definately on 25/26 and the Tories are very unlikely to higher than 35, which suggests to me that the Lib Dems are on 30/31.

  16. “anyone want to say i am miles out now ?”

    Yes, you’re miles out again.

  17. brown and clegg must grow a pair of the proverbials

    and next week come out in the press and appeal for tactical voting to prevent a tory majority

    simple as that

    if they dont , then its curtains for electoral reform and the end of both of them

    brown is finished , and so is clegg if he makes a mess of this after coming from nowhere

  18. @Andrew McCaig

    Re Query on Party % transfers

    After your last post to me, I have re-read my post to you and realised just how patronising it actually sounds. It was NOT meant to be and I sincerely apologise that it obviously came across that way. My sole intention was to keep it very simple not for your consumption but for others who may not be so adept as you.

    With regards to your query as to how this is applied and to the example, I must admit that I was initially unsure myself until I had chance to get my head around it. So here goes, please don’t think I have kept it simple to be clever, just so that others (and myself) may follow the logic.

    Firstly, when we talk about Party A having 10%, we are actually saying that Party A has 10% of the total votes cast. When we talk about swings A/B then we actually mean A transferring not a % of his actual votes, but transferring a % of the total votes cast. The maximum that party A can transferred would be up to the maximum % that he obtained. He cannot transfer say 20%, if the party only obtained say 10%. (No debit balances are allowed! ) You always transfer from a Party (A) to another Party (B), that is why it is described as A/B. (If the transfer was the other way it would be expressed as B/A.) That is why we do not have to consider the actual number of votes, merely the % of the total votes cast. Since the receiving party is also expressed as a % of the total votes cast, then both %s can be added directly to get the new value for the receiving party and the revised value for the donating party. I hope that covers it for you.

    Since we are getting into the time where tactical voting effects, may have to be considered, it may be a good time to discuss how tactical voting is calculated. In this case we have to consider the actual votes. I think the % of Cons who said they would consider voting tactically was 13%. If the Cons had 10% of the votes cast then the amount of tactical voting could be 13% of the Cons share of that seat’s votes. In the example, that would be (13% of 10%) only 1.3% of the votes cast for that seat.

    I hope all that was OK to you and any others to follow.

    Regards :)

    Been of the site for 3 hours GRRRRRRRRR….

  19. According to the betting markets, a small Tory majority is now favourite.

    Dire polls for Labour, just like last Saturday night.

    However, will the news coverage now suggesting a larger Tory lead and DC heading towards Downing Street cause the wave effect as in the past, or is the momentum towards the Tories now just too poweful ?

  20. Colin Green:

    ” Lib Dems average today only 0.5 points above Labour. Could Lab overtake before polling day?”

    I’d say they already have. Ignore Angus Reid – It is continually an odd-ball. On ICM, YouGov and Comres averages, Labour are already back in second.

  21. Bumpy – “anyone want to say i am miles out now ?”

    Bumpy, you are miles out now!

  22. Here’s a graph of the last month’s polls. Con are showing the first signs of pulling away – though 1 poll doesn’t make a trend. Lib and Lab are about to crash in the middle.

    i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd161/smart51/pollsaprmay.jpg

  23. @Yozza
    As predicted by a few of us over the the last few weeks.
    The LibDems seemingly handed the election to the Tories through their naive,ill thought out strategy. Labs vote seems to be firming up despite all that is being thrown at it , but will possibly hit a ceiling at 30%

  24. BPIX poll in MoS: Con 34, LD 30, Lab 27

  25. BPIX:

    34/27/30

  26. BPIX – C 34 L 27 LD 30
    No change from last week except L+1

  27. BPIX is Conservative 34, liberal Democrats 30 and labour 27. Little change from last week here, with just the Labour vote up a point. However, generally the polls are encouraging for the Tories, with the Lib Dems apparently slipping and Labour making little headway. Of course there have been shifts in this direction before which haven’t quite been maintained and there may still be many uncommitted voters. We must remember too that quite a few votes will have been cast already.

  28. BPIX have Con 34 Lab 27 Lib Dems 30 – the most accurate poll out tonight, I believe.

  29. How would you guys tend to rate the polling companies in terms of accuracy?? Am new to all this, and am struggling to understand why some polling organisations are regarded as superior to others.

  30. @Phil JW

    If you feel ICM over estimates the Labour figure it seems odd that you don’t think it underestimates the Tory figure.If ICM have the Tories at 36 I’m inclined to think they are probably at 37/38

  31. Bumpy.

    Yes, you are miles out. The Tories may or may not get an overall majority, but it will not be with anything like 40% of the vote.

  32. I don’t see Labour going back from here – more a question of to what extent will its vote firm up.

  33. This is what Ive been predicting on here for the last three weeks and now its happening.

    Ive predicted in the final few days the polls would show:

    Tories 38
    Labour 28
    Liberal 25
    Ive said that the tories who have been flirting with the Liberals would panic back to the tories causing them to surge, but the Liberals would take enough votes from Labour to allow the Tories to win a majority.

    The irony is that it is the rise of the Liberal vote at the expense of Labour which is preventing a hung parliament and putting off voting reform for a generation.

    A tory government with a majority is now inevitable. Its all over.

  34. Bumpy’s not far off the mark..it will be scrambled Cleggs on Brown toast for breakfast on the 6th!!!

  35. Now we have BPIX, we have the set of expected polls for today. Neglecting One Poll, which has an absurd 18% for others (meaning the big 3 are going to be wrong as a result), the average is

    Con 35.6
    Lab 26.8
    Lib Dem 27.8

    Con are on a rising trend since about 2 weeks ago, Lib Dem a slightly declining trend and Lab about flat. I’ve updated the graph link, above, to include the new BPIX poll.

  36. I think sorting oiut the anti-Tory voting on these figures will be slightly more difficult than herding two groups of cats in opposite directions, across a busy motorway.

    For the lovely. life-time Labour supporting, un-bigoted Mrs. Duffy, to sell her story to the Mail on Sunday is the equivalent of selling one’s soul.

    I’m just pleased I don’t live in a marginal where it would actually matter how I vote next Thursday.

  37. @Dave
    the real story just begins on May 7th ;-)

  38. What is to stop GB agreeing to a coalition with NC if the Cons fall short of a majority?

  39. All polls seem to show Tories doing well (relatively) but what’s happening between Labour and LibDems? Am confused now!

    Some show Labour on disastrous ratings such as 23/24% yet some put them in second place on 29% ish.

    Could it be that the polls don’t know how to adjust weightings for the LibDems considering their lower 2005 base?

  40. @BAZZA

    All the polling companies will be attempting to provide the most accurate figures – so discounting any poll would be unwise… however I believe one should beware of methodologies used by any polling company that is not a member of British Polling Council (BPC).

  41. The best you can say about the Tory ratings is that they’re not quite as dreadful as they have been. Those now counting on a Tory victory shouldn’t forget just how improbable a Conservative majority remains.

    “If David Cameron is to lead the Tories to an overall majority in the House of Commons, he must first rewrite the history books. Never before has a party required and achieved as large a swing as he needs or gained as many seats just to win an overall majority.”

    h t tp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/election_2010/article7094146.ece

    Nothing in the Tory campaign or the public’s response to Cameron suggests a record-breaking performance.

  42. A look at the detailed figures of the latest ICM poll indicates that out of 1,019 people polled, 83 will not vote and were excluded, leaving 936. Of these 298 were “non responders”, some 18% were DK’s (179) and 12%(119) refused to answer as to their intentions, leaving 638 definite responses, who expressed a differing degree of commitment to vote, and who split c 34%, L 30% LD 28% others 8%. ICM adjust for previous voting patterns and also adjust furtehr by icnluding 50% of the non responders, according to their previous voting record. That is how they arrived at
    C 36, L 29, LD 27
    While ICM are consistent in their methodology, I have doubts as to whether the 30% non responders can be included in part and then based on historic voting recrds. If it is correct that turnout will be up, implying that Non Voters in 2005 will vote this time, plus new voters votong in “slightly greater numbers”, the assumptions may not stand up.

    If this is the case, this poll may prove to be off key, and other polss may also to the same extent that they dont account properly for tsuch a large proportion of non responders and DK’s, be they shy voters or indeed people who have yet to make up their minds.

    I would welcome comments from more experienced posters and of course from AW on these issues.

    Just to set the record straight, I am an expat, do not vote and have no political inclinations.
    3 weeks ago, I predicted C 35, LD 28.5 L 25.5 , and I have not changed my views. i may howeverl amend this prediction, when I see the polls on Tuesday/ Wednesday .

    As to the outcome in terms of seats, my prediction is that C will get 270-280, L 230-240, LD’ 100-110, due to regional variations and tactical voting. I will list the seats to change hands with my final prediction

    I now wait to be “shot down”.

  43. @Statto

    ”Could Lab overtake before polling day?”

    “I’d say they already have”

    Only 2 of today’s 5 polls have Lab ahead and only 4 of the 21 polls in the last 7 days. It may happen but the data doesn’t say it has yet.

  44. The Tories were polling 40 plus last year, no reason why they shouldn’t poll at that level again, volatility is obviously exciting and keeps us entertained, but to all but the most biased, the Tory momentum, without cherrypicking polls, is going to deliver an overall majority. My opinion of course, but I see an acceleration of the Tory bandwagon, and the snowball effect , as others have mentioned, is an important factor……….people like to join the winning team.

  45. It pains me to say it, but it does look like the Tories have got it in the bag now.

  46. Good night for the Tories…possibly the edge taken off it with the YouGov poll?

    Still think we’re looking at a hung parliament as a near certainty, though. Average of four polls today:

    Con 36
    Lab 27
    LD 27

    Some way short for Cons.

    Just on the apparently more reputable YouGov and ICM polls:

    Con 35.5
    Lab 28
    LD 27.5

    Hmmm.

  47. “Am new to all this, and am struggling to understand why some polling organisations are regarded as superior to others.”

    In general people like the poll that predicts their favoured result. Come back on Friday if you want to know which (if any) is accurate.

    :-)

  48. It looks more and more likely like a Tory government with a small overall majority. A shame that the one good chance to overhaul our voting system is slipping away. We will have a government with probably only 1 in 4 of the voting population electing it, madness.

  49. The polls are right on the money to what many here have been saying for a while.

    These polls fit perfectly well with EION’s prediction of 36/34/22, and mins which is at 34/31/26.

    Whilst the Tories seem to have picked up I still have my doubts whether in the end they will actually go past 36%. Lab’s vote once again mildly strengthening, and the Lib vote dropping.

    I have a feeling Clegg’s declaration that they have replaced Lab will do him much more harm then good.

    Now before you all fall on me demanding proof for these assertions, here they are:

    – as I have been saying for a while, the polls have been showing these trends for a while.

    – as the polls approach and the clear fear of 1983 and the divided left vote will favor a shift from Lib to Lab.

    – polling booth jitters, will limit the Tory advance to its surest of vote % (33-36).

    – polls will not show the exact shape of things until the last couple of days if at all.

    What we will most probably be discussing here is rather the the Lab crush, but how low will Lib vote drop. I say it will stay at around 26% – well deserved after a great campaign by them.

  50. Tory majority now likely.

    Al least this will result in stable Govt & no back room deals.

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