There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.

771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. I think a 34/32/26 or 38/27/27 are both not beyond the realms of possibility. This GE has been very unpredictable, if little else!

  2. @Xiby
    Thanks for clearing that up for me.As I have said before I find your regional breakdowns the most interesting of all, and am pleasantly surprised at what it shows

  3. From BBC:-

    Gordon Brown may face renewed embarrassment about his “bigot” slur at the weekend. According to reports, the woman he insulted, Gillian Duffy, has sold her story to a Sunday newspaper.

    Wonder what she will say?

  4. Matt
    I think a 34/32/26 or 38/27/27 are both not beyond the realms of possibility. This GE has been very unpredictable, if little else!
    I don’t think so on the first estimate. The people who were saying this, said that we would be tightened to within 2% now, we are not there.
    My GE prediction is here, and I am confident. ish! :-)

    Cons 36%
    Lab 28.5%
    Libs 25.5%
    Others 10%

  5. Weather will not make much difference.Labour supporters are bone idle

  6. @Richard O
    my prediction..pretty close

    Cons 36%
    Lab 28%
    Libs 26%
    Others 10%

  7. @Richard O,

    I agree they are not likely. My prediction now is for:-

    Cons 36%
    Labour 28%
    Libs 27%

  8. @Irish,

    good prediction :-)


    politically not very correct…..but funny!

  9. Quick warning

    Don’t trust the London figures that much as YouGov has Lab% there disproportionately lower in their dailies then they actually are.

    In the YouGov averages from the period covering the 18th-25th (the same period covered by the regional) the daily poll showed:

    34.6 26.6 32.4 6.1

    The regional poll however read:

    36 31 28 6

  10. I’ve been disappointed that no-one has been calling one of the polls a “rouge outliner”.

    I never knew what that meant but it sounded jolly interesting.


    I like the term “at a glance”. That’s exactly what I’ve been using and discussing for ages. As in my recent post when I pointed out that YG haven’t given Cons. above 34% for eight days.

    The next bit is more to do with analysis and common sense, and that leads me to the conclusion that undecideds will split more towards labour and Lib Dem, and that 34 could even be as good as it gets. Which would be nice.

    The tricky thing is the lack of certainty about how that very loose anti-Conservative “coalition” splits it’s votes.

    Get it wrong and the Tories could still just make largest party. Get it right and they’re unlikely to be a governing party, on their own, ever again.

  11. None of the polling data ive seen shows there’s any room for more con votes, their share is the most certain . The other two have been all over the place, especially the libdems, so their share could go up or down a few points.

    With little or no indication that the cons would get anymore votes than they are polling now, it looks to be over for the tories no matter how the others perform. Especially now there is the publicity of tactical voting advocated by the Guardian.

    The BBC even rubbished the immigration policies of the main three, suggesting the only way to stop immigration would be to vote UKIP or BNP – that sort of ‘vote-splitting’ has got to hurt the hopeful tories?

    If they cant attract would-be ukip and bnp voters, where are they going to get a few more votes from over the next few days

  12. Matt – Apparently the Sun got in to interview her that night, (allegedly offered her 50,000) but left saying the story was “too boring”
    it was confirmed quietly in the Lab mouthpiece The Mirror today that GB mistook the word “Flocking” for something rather tastier.
    The family confirmed today a link with the PR firm and that it was instructed as there was already a link with the family, so not the conspiracies that it was a Tory firm.
    If there’s a story in a Sunday paper I am less fearful than I was originally.

  13. @Keith

    Surely the BNP vote is more likely to split from Labour than the conservatives?

  14. I still can’t find teh field work dates /times for harris anybody have better luck?

  15. @Keith,

    the worst and most partisan post of the evening!

    you are definately on the wrong site. there are loads of sites that would suite your views much better.


  16. If we get a lib lab pact we may see a reduction in our population as the education portion of society emigrate

  17. FPT
    Polls close at 10 pm; counts will start 30 mins – 1 1/2 hrs later, depending how far the ballot boxes have to travel to the count (and whether the count is on the night – finally we know that most are).
    Counts will take longer than usual because of the postal ballots that have to be verified.
    I don’t expect any really early results this time. If turnout is higher, counting will take longer. If results are close, counting will take longer.
    Theresa should start paying attention about 1 am BST in my view.

  18. @Sue,

    I don’t think the public would care much anyway, to be honest.

  19. Just to get a clue re the stability of Con votes these are the numbers from YouGov, since the 18th:

    32 33 31 33 34 34 35 34 33 33 34 34 34

    Also interesting is the trend upwards for Others:

    8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 10 8 11 10

    And finally you can also see a small downward trend for the libs:

    33 31 34 31 28 29 28 30 29 28 31 28 28

  20. Let me intrude again on this private party and re-assert that the Lib Dems will get a min of 28%

  21. I expect to see guardian headlines that read


    Followed by the Independent:


  22. I believe Labour has a little way to fall yet :o

    I believe the LDs have a little way to fall yet :o

    I believe the Conservatives have a couple of points to rise yet :o

    Labour quite often poll a little lower on the day than the polls suggest!

    Conservatives quite often poll a little higher on the day than the polls suggest!

    LDs = Bit unpredictable this time round!!

    English marginals – still hold the key to number 10 for DC

    My prediction for the Sunday polls (average of course)

    Con 35-37

    LD 30-31

    Lab 26-27

    GE Result

    Con 38

    LD 31

    Lab 26

    Blue lead over Red = 12%
    Blue lead over Yellow = 7%

    Conservative working majority 10-20 seats


  23. @ALAN

    “Surely the BNP vote is more likely to split from Labour than the conservatives?”

    Yeah, you’re probably right.

  24. @Nigel

    At least we wouldn’t hear any more about immigration

  25. All the parties can get extra votes. The Tories were in the high 30s/early 40s only a few weeks ago, so if they play their cards right, they could hit 36%-38% in the next week.

    I’ve never agreed with this idea of ‘core voters’, I have to say. Every voter can shift, no matter how staunchly they support a party.

  26. @RICHARD O

    “he worst and most partisan post of the evening!”

    Dya think? :-)

  27. Keith – I fail to see where any Con bounce comes from too. Surely no-one’s still considering whether to vote Con now, they’ve decided. It’s how many come back to Labour and how many stay with the Libs, surely that will be significant.

  28. @MATT

    “The Tories were in the high 30s/early 40s only a few weeks ago, so if they play their cards right,”

    What cards?

  29. While it’s fun to predict voting share for Thursday I can not understand why people consistently predict the Lib Dems at sub 26%.

    The proposition such soothsayers are trying to support is that the last three weeks, the leaders debates where the Lib Dems have had an equal showing with tories and Labour is only, ONLY, worth an extra 3% support in the ballot box.

    That does not seem a creditable proposition to me. Not least since the first debate, the Lib Dems/Clegg have been THE story of this election. The ‘mood music’ of this election does not sit with such frequent dismissal of the Lib Dem current poll rating.

    By all means offer an opinion but people, please; keep it real!

  30. @ SUE MARSH

    Absolutely! :-)

  31. @Keith,

    yes! in your words ‘it looks to be all over for the tories’


    granted they should be running away with this rather than still in a scrap, but 6-7% clear with 6 days to go is pretty good considering the dismal last 13 years for us long suffering Cons!!!


  32. Utterly bizarre that the Tory tabloids still think there is mileage in Gillian Duffy… did GB poop in her sink or something, if not what is there to disclose?? A sure sign that the Blues are still in panic mode.

  33. FWIW, where I am (supposedly safe Tory, LD in second), the Tory vote appears to be softening not hardening.
    Might be due to local factors. Or might be due to Tories having failed to seal the deal so far and now having lost the chance to convince.

  34. @NIGEL

    “If we get a lib lab pact we may see a reduction in our population as the education portion of society emigrate”

    Ha ha :-) did you read that bit about libdems having the highest IQs.

    Education, who needs it.

  35. @ Finger

    whilst i agree that most prob the LDs will not drop past the 26% mark, you simply have to agree that they are slowly dropping in % share. And that means if that atm stand at around 29% at the trend their share is dropping they will end up at around 26%.

    I have plotted this and extrapolated this trend and seen where it would end on the 6th of may. Not perfect science, but that is the reason behind my prediction of a LD 26%.

    But after all I COULD BE WRONG ;)

  36. Voters can shift in any direction. We still have a week left of the campaign. Someone could make a gaffe, or one of the leaders could rouse public support. We just don’t know how the TV coverage will go either etc. Then, on polling day, we could be subjected to the vagaries of the weather/strange voter behaviour etc.

    Let’s face it, no one knows for certain which way it will go – hence the anxiety for both blues and reds.

  37. @Sue Marsh – you should get a prize for that – the only person I’ve seen mention the ridiculous “flocking” idea (which even Labour were quite rightly too embarrassed to really run with) without indicating complete disbelief at its utter desparation and ridiculousness…

    and not realising that the lack of understanding of how a working-class woman of that age would behave compounds yet more just how touch Nu Labour are from the WWC.
    Yes very believable an average working-class woman of that age casually using the f-word and in front of the PM – you couldn’t make it up.

  38. @JAYTEE

    you don’t think it’s merely about selling papers?

    Lots of morons in this country will buy that rubbish to read.

  39. Mark Johnson

    Your continual C/L/LD 40/30/20 of a few weeks past always gave me a good laugh.

    40/20/30 I think would be far more interesting.

    Unpredictable, although, rattling a few numbers, I still see the Conservatives as the largest party, possibly with a small majority.

    Whatever the outcome, GB’s departure seems certain!

  40. @MATT
    don’t forget the anxiety of the yellows!

  41. A question:

    When asking who ‘won’ the TV debate, are radio listeners included, or just TV ‘viewers?

    Why do I ask?:

    I’ve asked a few people who listened on the radio and they all thought Brown came over best. Perhaps he sounds better than he looks.

    Could that explain why the polls of voting intentions don’t seem to reflect the polls on debate ‘winners’.

  42. “Ha ha :-) did you read that bit about libdems having the highest IQs.”

    That research was probably conducted by a Lib Dem supporter.;)

  43. @ MATT

    undoubtedly :-)

    —-he wrote—-
    “I’ll be setting up a backup site on the free WordPress hosting thing, so people can go there if the site goes down.”

    -Could someone give me the link to the site AW is referring to

  45. @ NIGEL

    If we get a lib lab pact we may see a reduction in our population as the education portion of society emigrate

    You’ll be staying here, then. ;-)

  46. The argument ‘if party X wins, I will emigrate’ always makes me laugh.;-)

  47. Just read this from twitter:

    “YouGov Threaten Legal Action Over Alleged UK Election Opinion Poll Rigging

    Polling company YouGov has accused a former UK diplomat of libel following allegations that UK election opinion polls have been rigged to favour Conservative Party leader David Cameron.

    Craig Murray accuses YouGov CEO and former Conservative Party candidate Stephan Shakespeare of manipulating opinion poll methodology following the televised election debates between David Cameron, Gordon Brown, and Nick Clegg.

    YouGov’s lawyers have threatened to contact Craig Murray’s ISP company should he fail to remove his alleged ‘defamatory’ postings.

  48. So, we are all agreed then, no way back for the Tories from here.

  49. Matt – I might hibernate for a bit though ;)

  50. “If we get a lib lab pact we may see a reduction in our population as the education portion of society emigrate”

    Do you mean ‘the educated portion”… given your use of language that clearly doesn’t include you

    To add to Keith’s message, have you noticed its the University Towns, from Oxbridge to the student seats in Leeds, Sheffield, manchester that have swung most solidly to the LibDems in the last three elections.

    Probably not, I’d guess

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