There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.


771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. Al J may I enjoin with comments from other colleagues?

  2. Al J

    You wrote “…I lost my mum on Wednesday – I am bereft…”

    I am sorry to hear this: you have my sympathies for your loss and for the time ahead.

  3. @AL-J,

    prayers have been said! xx

    @FrankG,

    I’m of out- I will look at it first thing.

    @Matt

    Very true….

    @All

    My prediction has always been 36/34/22

    any forecast of a tory 38% was always on the premise that they would fall back to 36% closer to polling day. I hope others back me up.

    I accept they only got to 36%, which illustrates matts point. At the time though there was ZERO people agreeing with me. In fact when LD were 34% noone agreed with me that they would fall back… now they are at 28% after their last big exposure event.

  4. This poll, based on the regional swings would give us:

    CON 33.00% 93gains 16 losses 285total
    LAB 24.00% 0gains 154losses 192total
    LIB 32.00% 74gains 0losses 141total

  5. I’m waiting for the next ICM poll to make up my mind on the actual position. I say that not because I think that ICM is the most accurate but because the consistancy of their methodology provides the surest comparison from the 2005 GE.

    After comparing their final 6 polls before the 2005 GE to the actual result, if we take ICM’s next poll and subtract 3 points from Labour’s score and divide these points equally between the Cons, Lib Dems and Others then we will have a score that is highly likely to be accurate to within one point.

  6. Are we sure the Guardian hasn’t just misspelled “Labour”? :)

  7. “Thanks Matt Isee your resoning but the pols always seem to understate the Blues true percentage vote. ”

    You’re welcome. It’s not so much that they underestimate the Tory vote, though they have sometimes – more that they historically overestimate the Labour vote. Either way, if it happens this time, the Tories would obviously benefit.

    “Do we really want a Blue win?? Let Labour/Lib dems for a coalition which will end in chaos another vote Tort landslide HMMM”

    I take your point, but we do want a blue win. The Conservatives are planning to change the boundaries of constituencies if they get a majority, which would make it harder for Labour to be re-elected. That is why it is so important for Labour not to allow the Tories to get a majority IMO.

  8. “No one can predict the outcome of this GE – even Eoin”

    LOL!!

  9. Pankot,

    I would be amazed if a Lib-Lab government/pact were to reform the uper chamber in a way that didn’t give them a comfortable place to retire. What would happen to Mandelson in an STV based upper house?

    Personally, if we are to only have elected chambers I would be happy with just a unicarmel parliament. However, my ideal solution would be a gradual movement towards a “House of Experts”, with members jointly appointed by the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition, consisting of ex-trade unionists, ex-scientists, ex-judges, ex-businessmen, elder statesmen and so on. Of course, I’m a bit young to want more old men and women in positions of authority, but I think a “senate” (in the Latin sense) would retain what is good about the House of Lords and increase its strengths. We abandon the strengths of old institutions at our peril.

  10. @XIBY

    If you type the same figures into electoral calculus you get

    279 – 202 -137

    Not much difference with a straight UNS! (although the predicated seats changing hands would be different)

  11. Martin E,

    Or maybe it is just a misunderstanding? I expect the Grauniad to print a full retraction and apology to GB tomorrow

  12. @Xiby
    I having been trying to follow your regional analysis but now am completely baffled, my understanding was that this was based on breaking down YouGov’s national polls.
    Do the %s you state eg Labour on 24% relate only to England and Wales then?

  13. “@ Jack
    I’m going to make a note of that post just in case!”

    In which case I will make a prediction. You can then stick the boot into me on the night if I am wrong.
    My prediction:
    Tory – 38%
    Lib Dem – 25%
    Labour – 24%
    Others – 13%
    (Base on whole of UK including NI).

    My reasoning for this – Tory shy vote (as usual) plus some of the Lib Dem voters thinking that they’d rather have DC then GB as PM. Lib Dem lack of on the ground workers in enough constituencies that are now marginal. General disenchantment of Labour voters who just won’t be bothered to go out and vote, mainly because the Guardian told them NC was a nice chap and they think he will be PM anyway. Plus current weather looks poor (SE cold and wet on Weds, maybe same on Thurs) – a wet day will favour the Tories and damage Labour.

  14. @ Eoin

    your prediction makes sense except for the drastic drop in LD votes. I can see them at 25-26 not 22

    So i would say 34-35Con, 30-31 Lab and 25-26LibDem

    I am now hoping for a 34-31-26 result.

  15. @MIKE PEARCE
    “Is obnoxious your middle name?”
    Unfortunately my parents were too working class to give me a middle name. I am left with just the two.

  16. For all of you who spend hours compiling figures, tables and stats (and the ARE much appreciated) I’d like to share my “Glance Analysis” with you.

    Go to the front page on this site, look at the column of recent polls on the right and, well, glance.

    It almost always shows trends quite easily, outliers are exposed, and the rough average of where each party is actually at shows quite clearly.

    Not scientific, but surprisingly accurate.

    For instance, today, you’d see that Con are almost certainly at 33-34, Lab are almost certainly on 28, Lib have probably lost a little vote share but not much, Harris, AR and Opinium score Labour markedly lower and the Con lead is not enough.

    See, quite comprehensive really.

  17. I don’t personally see Labour hitting 30/31% on May 6th, but I guess it can’t be ruled out.

  18. AW has pointed out before that Harris differs in methodology from the others by asking respondents if they are registered & excluding those who aren’t. This seems to give a lower VI percentage for Labour than other pollsters.

    BTW if Labour voters don’t turn out & the Labour vote is down by 2% on the opinion polls, that will automatically increase other parties’ share simply because the total has to be 100%.

  19. (the sound of men in boots again)

  20. Lab on 24 and Cons on 33 would be a disaster for them Labs down A LOT, Cons around same as 05.

    Either we’re going to get a tiny Tory Majority, or hung parliament. None would last long I don’t think. 2nd election could decide whether Labs will end up in 3rd position like Libs for so many years.

  21. @Bill Patrick

    I wasn’t predicting what would happen… just what would be the best option (again, just imo) for an elected upper house.

    “What would happen to Mandelson in an STV based upper house?”

    Surely he’d blag himself a nice quango?

    Anyway, returning to the upper chamber – there’s no point having an upper chamber that is too similar to the lower chamber. You need it to be different in some way so that it can act as a dampener on the HoC. So *if* you preserve FTP (or have AV) in the HoC, STV in the “lords” can work (especially if the election to the upper house has a different timetable.) But if you have a more proportional system in the commons (AV+ or STV) then the upper house can’t be the same again… so an appointed house becomes more defensible.

    Probably academic anyway, since your suspicion that we’ll end up with party list elected members will likely turn out true, more’s the pity.

  22. “I am now hoping for a 34-31-26 result.”

    That would be a terrific result for Labour, if it happens.

  23. @Eoin Clarke

    The collapse of the Lab vote in the NE and NW is still allowing the ’static’ Con vote % to take Lab/Con with swings of NE 6.5 and NW 5.0, which would give them 15 Lab marginals in those areas unless something happens between now and the 6th.

    Therefore you should anticate that the actual % of Lab outside the NE & NW is overall about 2-3% below the given Lab overall %.

    Have a good night out.

  24. Ok let me explain what i am doing. Yes i am tabulating all YouGov numbers (ie all polls as broken down by them). However they break the numbers into north, south, london, scotland, midlands&wales. So on the bases of the PoliticsHome regional poll, also based on YouGov numbers, i am mapping out the % shifts in specific regions. The numbers i posted above are what the parties stand at in the regions on the bases of the 25-29th April polls. Simply to get an idea of how regions are changing in terms of %.

  25. @Bill Patrick

    I am confident that your hypothesis will not come to pass due to the forthcoming govt including the Lib Dems :-D

  26. Al J

    Deepest sympathies. I know what you are going through right now. I was a candidate in 1997 and lost my mother two weeks before polling day. Words won’t really help you now and your loss is forever but, believe me, the day will come when life returns to normal and your mother will always have a place in your heart

  27. Eoin:

    I shall certainly back you up. “We shall see a 38% by Thursday [second debate] trust me” were your words.

    They got to 34% as I remember.

    36/34/22 has, indeed, been your GE prediction.

    My guess/feeling/intuition/analysis is that the first two are a bit high, the latter too low.

    What I think we both agree on is the resilience of Brown and the strong possibility that more people will prefer experience over the opposite, when it comes to the final choice.

  28. Al J:

    I’ve missed your posts and am so sad for you now I know the reason.

    My Mum died when I was sixty but it was still a very painful time and you have my sympathy and best wishes.

    You were the friendliest voice on this forum and I was always charmed by the sincerity of your support for Labour.

    All the best, Paul.

  29. I tried looking for this poll on the Mail with ‘poll’ and they only gave me articles on the referee of that name!

    Does anyone know when the fieldwork was done for the Harris poll. It is online is it not?

  30. So called anti Tory bias in polls,last election polls in marginals were found to be anti Labour bias.

  31. @Xiby
    Sorry to labour the point but I dont think that YouGov have polled Labour as low as 24%in any of their last 7 polls., so I dont see how you can end up with this figure?
    Statistically the parties surely should end up in aggregate with the same % as the average of the polls, its just that you are breaking down this figure regionally?
    Or am I missing something?

  32. Another poll – I am going to believe this one over all others !

    From Sky News – A poll for mumsnet, the website for mums, showed that 43% of users were planning to vote Liberal Democrat with Labour on 26% and the Tories on 22%.

    We’re home and dry – aren’t we ??

  33. On predictions:

    1. Gordon Brown insults pensioner and pretty much shows his concerns about immigration are crocodile tears.

    2. Cameron wins third and final debate.

    Result: nothing. Absolutely nothing.

    Short of Cameron behaving like Baxter Basics in the latest Viz, I doubt if anything any of them say or do will have an impact.

    This is now really all about solidity of support, and intensity of dislike. Greece finally collapsing may change the game – but it is impossible to say how. Plausibly, it might reconcile people to cuts; or make people think ‘no time for a novice’.

  34. @Ian Kemp

    “when you do that voodoo that you do so well…” ;)

  35. JACK JONES
    “… current weather looks poor (SE cold and wet on Weds, maybe same on Thurs) – a wet day will favour the Tories and damage Labour.”

    I don’t think Labour will be so worried about the weather in the SE!
    Leicester forecast for Thursday (from weather.com) is cloudy 13C. I think that won’t put so many labour voters off.

  36. @Joseph: the polls have been static within the MoE for ages, maybe since the second debate. It’s hard to see much changing before May 6th.

  37. @Cloudspotter
    Leicester Seats (whatever the weather)
    Lab Hold Leic East, Leic West lose Leic South to LibDems (Big Student Vote)
    Lose Loughborough & Leic NW to Tories
    Not Good..

  38. @ Sue

    re trends – being a bit of a sicko I have plotted my own personal graphs, for all regions, age groups, gender, and social classes, and voting intentions ofc.

    And yes there is a clear trend that Con votes are stabilizing, Lab is on the rise and Libs are dropping.

  39. I was going to put all the reasons (again) why I agree with Eoin, Howard, Paul Croft and Xiby that the outcome will probably be somewhere around 34/32/26.

    Instead, I’ll just say that my old Dad (88) has said for two years now “You see, when people get in that polling booth, they’ll remember their bus passes/fuel payments/tax credits (delete according to the day he says it)

    Distils Shy Labour, Polling booth wobbles, and Cameron not “sealing the deal” well enough really.

  40. @Cloud

    My best guess as a weather junkie is the rain will be out on wednesday and thursday will be chilly but no rain.

  41. I’m a Labour supporter but maybe its a good thing that another party gets in other than Labour for Labour’s long term gain. The new government after the election will have to get some money from somewhere and the parties will have to break a few promises to get a sufficient amount of money for the public sector even if there will be cuts. This will just make them so unpopular and the probably won’t last very long, which will mean it will open it up to the two other parties that aren’t in power.

  42. @ Parang

    Since the 18th, (arguably the first complete poll post 1st debate) YouGov has given Lab these numbers:

    26, 27, 26, 27, 29, 29, 27, 28, 28, 29, 27, 27, 28.

    I have no idea where you got that 24 from>

  43. @PARAG

    Sorry, I was just suggesting that Jack Jones was being a bit preemptive by writing off Lab chances because of the weather.

  44. Sequence of events

    Con 36% Lab 28% Lib Dem 26%
    Con largest party
    GB resigns
    Con Lib negotiations collapse after 3 weeks
    Ed Milliband new Lab leader and Clegg do deal
    PR referendum Sept..
    Lab Left peel off….
    Fresh election december…
    Multiple party system…..

  45. @Xiby
    Your post at 10.25 pm
    “This poll, based on the regional swings would give us:

    CON 33.00% 93gains 16 losses 285total
    LAB 24.00% 0gains 154losses 192total
    LIB 32.00% 74gains 0losses 141total”

  46. Xiby – The most simple reading of all from your YouGov Lab figures should be that a 30, 30, 31 are on the way.

  47. I understand that last night’s debate, though being seen as a victory for DC, was a successful outing for NC in relation to the undecideds. Is that formally posted anywhere?

    Also, in “the others”, are there any seats, apart from Brighton, that might see an independent winning? These are little points but, if as I suspect, the tories get 37%, it could mean the difference between minority govt or a small majority.

    The city money and the spread bets still appear to be giving the tories a majority which is not consistent with the polls. So, City boys or pollsters to call Thursday?

  48. @Xiby
    Sorry, I now see that you are using the Harris Poll but with YouGov swings

  49. @ Parag

    aha then i misunderstood. That was just to show the seat breakdown, taking account of regional swings, if this Harris poll was correct.

    Only did that really to drive the point that Cons simply have to INCREASE their % of votes if they are to win an outright majority. A Lab collapse in the poll such as this Harris poll will still not be enough.

    Historically Cons never got a majority unless they got more then 40% of the votes.

  50. As I understand it, the Cons. vote is the most stable of all, but 33-35 will not get them to overall majority. The fluctuations in the Lab -LD vote is, IMHO, due to the fact that their views on several issues are more or less compatible. I notice that the total of their votes is steady around 55. Indeed, if I voted in the UK , I would have a great difficulty to choose between Lab and LD. I would rather prefer the latter because of their position on Europe, civil liberties and minority rights, but I would not exclude the former, because they belong to the European Socialist Party, to which I adhere, and because I find GB more sincere and humane despite (or because?) of his blunders. Anyway for us continentals the FPTP system seems rather absurd (in no other EU country exists the possibility for the 3d party to be 1st in number of seats), but then again it certainly provides greater stability in comparison to the various coalitions in most European countries whose stability often depends on the capricious behavior of minor parties.

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