There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.

771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. Sky is showing ICM Cons 36 Labour 29 Lib Dems 27 which, if correct, isn’t bad for Labour and not so great for LibDems

  2. @Ben

    “Sunday People poll Libs 32, Cons 30, Lab 21, others 17 (from Onepoll). rubbish.”


    Last week’s OnePoll for The People had:

    LD 33

    Con 28

    Lab 23

    So a big Tory breakthrough there. ‘Significant’, in fact.


  3. It seems to be that this election has focussed on the negative. The anti-Tory vote, the anti-old parties vote, the scaremongering, the expenses, the whole cuts issue are all reasons not to vote for someone rather than a positive vote. As negativity seems to be the agenda I considered the current polls in that light.
    The Tory vote is pretty stable and anyone who is still blue is unlikely to shift now without good reason. The LibDems have done well and many keep calling for some slippage in their vote. I don’t see why people would now desert the success story of the campaign. It is not in human nature.
    In trying to identify where shifts may occur I have to consider Lab who after a poor and tired campaign look very vulnerable. We have seen some low scores for Lab in the 23-25 area and these are always explained away as outliers or unreliable methodology. What if these are showing us where Lab can go?

  4. ICM Con 36, Lab 29, LD 27

  5. BIGOT-Brown is gone on Thursday :)

  6. @Derek,

    You will note others are on 8% :P :P :P na na na na :)

  7. @ Pam F

    “This on twitter, if so lab = 25, and tories would have a Maj”

    17 short on both the BBC’s and this site’s swingometer

  8. nearly got their first.

  9. The last Onepoll had Cons and Libs at 32 with Lab at 23 so 4% more to “others” this time.

    Those ICM numbers look fascinating someone said were on Sky. I can see the polls are going to show a mixed picture again.

  10. Good for the Conservatives as their vote is going up, and good for Labour in that they have avoided a disaster poll.

    Overall, I can honestly say I’m pretty happy with the ICM (as a blue). 7% lead over Labour and reaching the mid/high 30s again suggests a majority is still possible.

  11. Sky is reporting Sunday Telegraph ICM as Conservative 36, Labour 29 and Liberal Democrat 27. Suggests a swing to the Tories from Lib Dems after the debate but we await others to see the trend.

  12. @Ben
    If that’s true I’m relieved.I was hearing lots rumours about Labour being in the low 20s , for an ICM poll that would worry me.

  13. ICM isnt too bad at all !!

    higher labour vote than expected and liberals holding up at 27 , far higehr than they would have dreamed of means a hung parliament

  14. ICM result = seat share (BBC calculator)

    Con 279

    Lab 262

    LD 79


  15. The more the LDs fall the hgiher the chance either blue or red get a majority….

    and they will fall

  16. This is just one poll. We need to see some others before we start jumping to conclusions.

  17. I’m happy if all the other polls follow this trend. The Tory vote has climbed the most in the past week, without doubt!

    Just another 1% or 2 on this, and the Tories would have their majority IMO.

  18. what are the changes on the last ICM poll?

  19. The ICM numbers are on the Telegraph website. 36,29,27

  20. @Yozza

    LD down 3%

    Lab up 1%

    Tories up 3%

  21. Presumably people have heard of the OnePoll numbers showing LD 32, Con 30 and Lab 21?

    Sounds a bit extreme.

  22. No need for polls – when the Guardian endorses you, you have become a lost cause.

    LD in 3rd place thanks to the Gruandia ;-)

  23. Matt – I agree 38% enough, 37% I doubt would be.

  24. I think all parties can take something out of ICM.Libs hanging in there,Labour haven’t suffered from ‘bigotgate’ and the Tories are inching towards the sort of lead they need for a majority.

  25. @Amber,

    It is the moments of difficulty that you know who your friends are. Lets face Yellow were not one of them.

    ‘squatting’ ‘desperate’ Hmm…………

  26. +3 for Cons-a good Poll for them.

    Still think they will achieve LP, but not a majority.

    The rest of this evening’s polls will be riveting.

    ( all of which, regular readers will know , I forecast with absolute precision in 2006 ;-) )

  27. Ok. It is now official. The Whig bubble definatly has burst. OnePoll should be taken as pinch of salt.

  28. @Eoin,

    “LD down 3%

    Lab up 1%

    Tories up 3%”

    The Lib Dem vote coming back to the Tories? I guess the other polls today will tell us.

  29. Not saying The Guardian backing for The Liberal Democrats would have mych affect but it i still a blow for Labour and polling was obviously before this was announced. Icm polled on Friday only, usually their polls are over 2 days I think.

  30. If I am right these are ICM stats for April.
    Some for Sunday Telegraph, others for Guardian

    Con Lab LibDem

    03/04/2010 37 33 21
    07/04/2010 38 30 21
    11/04/2010 37 31 20
    15/04/2010 34 29 27
    18/04/2010 33 28 30
    23/04/2010 35 26 31
    25/04/2010 33 28 30
    01/05/2010 36 29 27

    Trend? All depends what you choose as your starting point.
    Blue are up 3 since 25th.
    Red up 3 since 23rd
    Yellow down 3 from their peak

    Kyle euphoria is premature

  31. @Kyle,

    They are still 4.3% up on 2005. All is not lost……

  32. Sunday Telegraph ICM pre election poll in MARCH was C38% La31% Lib21%

    Both red and blue just 2 points below this in latest ICM – Looks like we’re drifting back to pre-cleggmania

  33. ICM has Lab +1 AFTER bigotgate and the awful 3rd debate performance by GB?


  34. I have just got back on.

    There any confirmed polls then? or is this still mere speculation?

  35. Grasping at some LD straws here, but both Harris and OnePoll are pretty good for the Libdems.

    ICM is, of course, the more respectable company.

  36. The “Interesting ComRes poll for S Mirror/Indy on Sunday” tweet from John Rentoul intrigues me. It could be that it underlines the relative drift away from LD to Con and stabilisation of Lab vote. Any approx time when that poll usually turns up?

  37. funny how Eoin never seems to comment or read the OTHER polls that show Lib closing in on Con…


  38. lets review what we KNOW about the ICM poll

    FIRST pankot says 36/28/28 con / Lib/Lab

    then ` fingernon69 says No no he heard this rumor from TWITTER
    Sun Tel/ICM national poll shows significant moves for 2 of the 3 main
    Labour down 2 Lib Dems up 2
    33/33/26 ICM = significant movement for two with nc tories

    THEN the NEW rumor from SKY “sources” show something else…

    folks just stop already

  39. Telegraph/ICM poll has the Tories at 36% , Labour 29% Lib Dems at 27%

  40. I know we have had a more recent poll from ICM in the Guardian but compared with the figures in last week’s Sunday Telegraph the changes are Con -1 Lab+3 LibDem -4

  41. Aside from probably his weakest debate, I wonder if Clegg has suffered a little from his comment – “this is now a 2 horse race” – or did he mean a 2 horse race for second place? Also, without knowing exactly when the fieldwork was done for ICM, has Brown got a mini bounce from his demolition job on Paxman?

  42. It seems that both Labour and the Tories are taking from the Lib Dems, especially the Tories. Just one poll though.

  43. @ Éoin

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    LD need to be careful. They may have made an enemy of Labour without finding a friend in the Conservatives.

    I think Clegg’s maneouvering may have cost the UK a reform of the voting system.

    Tory largest party, Labour agree not to vote down the Conservatives in exchange for no cuts to the MP numbers & restraint in the post victory mud-slinging.

    Everything back to normal in Tory & Labour land. LD 3rd party once again. Clegg with his nose pressed against the window, kicking himself?

  44. This is so stressful!
    Which polls are expected tonight, and when?

  45. YEAH I finally saw it on their web site

    I realize it IS the daily telegraph a cons newspaper but what is odd that that with Harris Mail poll yesterday… the cons are within 2-3 point of each other as are the Lab…

    but the Lib dem variance is 5 or 6 between the ICM and other polls which SEEM to show Lib dems gaining

  46. Sorry. Got a bit ahead of myself. The Whigs certainly have improved on their 2005 performance. We need more polls to fill the puzzle. Heres hoping that the Whig bubble dose burst. The gloating rights will be spectacular :)

  47. Sorry I meant to say Con +1 – Lab +3 LibDem -4 since last weekend.

  48. Was wondering why everyone was saying the Tories had improved more than Labout – I had the improvements reversed (Lab +3, Con +1) – then realised I was comparing with Last Weeks Sunday Times poll while evreyone else was using the poll released a day later for the Guardian.

    But it interesting to compare all 3:
    22/04 Co 35 La 26 Li 31
    24/04 Co 33 La 28 Li 30

    Now Co 36 La 29 Li 27

    While the later fieldwork may account for the difference between the earlier polls, they are all well within the MOE and comparing the average to today gives

    Co 34 – 36 (+2)
    La 27 – 29 (+2)
    Li 30.5 – 27 (-3.5)

    Suggesting the Lib Dems are losing support roughly equally to Labour and the Tories. Or you could take the change since the last ICM to show they defecting the Lib Dems in Favour of the Tories. Or you could wait for more polls…

    Looking at the polls for last weeks Sundays, ICM (along with BPIX) had rated Labour the lowest (26 vs You Gov 27, ComRes 28) and along with You Gov rated the Tories highest (35 v Com Res and BPIX on 34) So this could be the most promising polls for the Tories. Or not. Again, more polls needed…

  49. @YAKOBS No, not likely to be anything to do with Paxman as all polling was conducted yesterday 30 April.

  50. Everything back to normal in Tory & Labour land. LD 3rd party once again. Clegg with his nose pressed against the window, kicking himself?..

    Is so, LIbs break up and SDP and Labour join forces again?

    Uphill struggle>? CAPTCHA Code is HYKE!

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