There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.


771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. I think alot of this stuff about shy Tories and the Labour vote going down on the day is just connected with the differential turnout in middle class and working class areas.

    We know the turnout is less in safe Labour seats than safe Tory ones. I suspect that when polled they say “yes I am certain to vote”, but on the day if you are a single mother without a car and your child is ill, what do you do? I am not stereotyping here, just saying that poor people have more things to worry about, and it is more likely that events conspire to stop them voting. I am not sure if the pollsters account for this in their analysis of AB vs CDE voters

  2. Eoin
    I think you missed my post at 1501. If that’s not clear please ask again and I will try to be clearer.

  3. I know I’m breaking one of Anthony’s unbreakable rules, but generally speaking the people I meet are very comfortable with saying they will be voting Tory. I’m talking about family members, friends, work colleagues etc. Equally, those that are going to be putting their crosses elsewhere are quite happy to say so. I think this is the most open election in my recollection, and there is less stigma in all directions.

    Beautiful irony, that Kyle posted his claim immediately after my denial!

  4. Neil A,

    I am deeply, deeply offended that you would make such a suggestion. I would always find out that the person was a Tory first before telling them how they are overprivileged, gay-hating, fox-murdering, misogynistic Little Englanders who hate the poor and just want to enrich themselves.

    GreenGrass,

    Yeah, I suppose Polly was shy for about three days before letting rip…

  5. @MITZ
    You describe me perfectly. I am sure if I ever meet a gay fox, I will hate it.

  6. @Mitz,

    You’re like a 21st Century Witchfinder ;)

  7. “I haven’t met a shy Tory in a long, long time.”

    I am a shy Tory of sorts.

  8. There are certain posters on here from whom I await their first post on polling. I think Anthony tolerates them as their entirely partisan messages numerically counter the partisan bits of posts that actually do contain remarks about polls.

  9. Roland,

    No doubt, but only a true Tory would claim that the fox had a choice about whether it is gay or not.

    Neil A,

    I shall not rest…

  10. Isn’t there a busty, blonde ex page three model who is a gay Fox?

  11. @Hoawrd,

    I done it for the 29/04/10

    Tories 33.16406453
    Labour 27.0008313
    Libs 28.83512691

  12. @Howard,

    the question regarding the 29th….

    Why was Libs rounded down?

    i thought this reallocation was only supposed to round blues up 1%.

    Is this the first indication that YG don’t think yellows will turnout?
    Is it a change in methodology?

    the net result difference is c.2% eg… putting blues up one, putting yellows down one..

    Equally, it could just be an historian’s dodgy mathematics :(

  13. Unconfirmed reports that the Sunday Telegraph/ICM poll has the Tories at 36% and the Lib Dems at 29% <- "Others" 35%

    This on twitter, if so lab = 25, and tories would have a Maj

  14. Anthony,

    When you have time can you let me knwo if there has a change in methodology. Before the reallocation of DKs I had the LDs on c.28.8% for 29/04/10. The allocation of DKs we already knows pushes blueys up but on this occasion it also ‘appears’ to have pushed yellows down 1%.

    Thanks.

  15. @PAm F,

    Beware, ICM afford ‘others’ a lower share than most pollsters…

  16. Re: gay foxes, hope that’s not a coded reference to the honourable member for Somerset North? Chris Grayling won’t be having him around for breakfast.

  17. A change in methodology, half way through an election campaign? Surely not…

  18. I’m intrigued by these rumours/leaks of polls revealing the tory and lib results, but not labour. Accurate or not how could someone who is in a position to know hte “scores” of the first two parties, not be in a position to equally know and report labour’s? And if they do know it but just aren;’t saying, what concievable motive would htey have for only letting 2 of the 3 figures escape? What purpose could it serve?

  19. Eoin

    Your post 1540 needs editing for visibilty – I dont know what YG are up to but by telling us the weighted big three totals before playing around, they raise the questions you are posing.

    As a minnow in this I await further comment with interest.

  20. @Éoin: the last 2 ICM polls have had others at 8% & 9%. The other pollsters have them 8% to 10%. Not that different & it probably depends on roundings.

  21. “Unconfirmed reports that the Sunday Telegraph/ICM poll has the Tories at 36% and the Lib Dems at 29% <- "Others" 35%

    This on twitter, if so lab = 25, and tories would have a Maj"

    Not according to the swingometer, this would still put Tories in minority territory if true (305-222-90-32). Very likely to get Lib support in those circs of course, but wouldn't get in without it

  22. @Derek,

    HArris have them 12-13%

    YG 29/04/10 had them 11%

    get with it

  23. Derek,

    In fact, Harris, Opinium and Angus have the 13-14%

  24. I wish to make the point to colleagues that we have no expectation of further electoral developments and so the YouGov poll of last night should be taken as the standard. It’s metaphorically like stirring the surface of the pond between now and Thursday. It won’t clear until Friday.

  25. @Eoin

    What is the point of giving 10 “significant” figures to an average of a few polls each of which has an MoE of c3%?

    You really need to get your mind around the fact that there is considerable uncertainty in any sampling or statistical approach. Polls are useful but they must be considered with respect for their nature and limitations

  26. @NBeale,

    save it!

    You have your way, which I respect, I have mine.

    toodle doo :)

  27. “YouGov poll of last night should be taken as the standard”

    Err… All the polls have some relevance until Friday surely? All the pollsters will be trying to provide a projection closest to the result…

    The interesting thing is that some of the polls are very different from others. I wonder which of them has got it right?

  28. @Éoin: being selective again. YG 28/4/10 was 8%; YG 30/4/10 was 10%. Harris, AR & Opinium always show high Others & low Labour. I thought you’d dismissed them as not credible?

  29. Derek,

    ICM show others lower than any other polling company. FACT. Get over yourself.

  30. Nbeale

    Our Belfast friend was just having a little amusement. I was thrown too until I realised what I was looking at, after I posted requesting clarity. If you go back a bit you could find some interesting discoveries about the recent YG polls respecting the adjustments it is making to the initial figures to produce the published result.

  31. Taking all 600+ polls from 2005

    ICM show others at 9.6%
    MORI show others at 10.5%
    Populus show others at 11.4%
    YG show others at 11.8%

    I was being factual.

    I could further embarass you by showing times when Angus Reid etc.. shwo others at 16% but I wont…

  32. Sunday People poll Libs 32, Cons 30, Lab 21, others 17 (from Onepoll)

    rubbish.

  33. Eoin

    Circumfrence of a circle= 2 x 3.14159265345 x radius.

    (No harm to you but couldn’t resist it!!!)

  34. @Éoin: ICM is in line with ComRes, Populus, TNS & the last MORI. The UKPR average has others at 10%; the previous one (34-27-30) had 9%. I agree it doesn’t suit your argument. BTW you must be aware that anyone who writes FACT on message boards is usually expressing an opinion.

  35. @Ben

    “Sunday People poll Libs 32, Cons 30, Lab 21, others 17 (from Onepoll). rubbish.”

    I’d still like to show it to me Brother-in-Law, who is a Tory agent. Just for fun you understand.

  36. I think EOIN’s over-the-top use of decimal places may have been a tongue in cheek response to my post regarding rounding from earlier :)

    CATCHA CODE: REDS!!!

  37. @George Gardner,

    I await the day you have soemthing intelligetn to say…

    @Derek

    You are 100% incorrect. See the post above.

  38. @Derek,

    taking EVERY single poll since the 2005 GE

    ICM show others at 9.6%
    MORI show others at 10.5%
    Populus show others at 11.4%
    YG show others at 11.8%
    COmR show others at 13.5%

    Now do me a favour, unless you kno what your talking about, can you not waste my time….

  39. Sunday People poll Libs 32, Cons 30, Lab 21, others 17 (from Onepoll).

    —————

    If that does not have at least 5% shy Labour, I will eat my hat.

  40. BBC News 24 is at it again today :-
    ”Two newspapers ditch their support for Labour”
    The scrolling banner carries latest Harris figures but
    they somehow managed to omit latest Yougov stats.

  41. @Howard, Grem

    You are both indeed correct, You know the funny thing? had i not broken it down into decimal places the same proverbials (oops mic is on) woul dhave been on to complain.

    :)

  42. @Eoin Clarke

    Having a bad day? Some of your comments have been a bit acidic. Why not go for a quiet walk, or go and have a cup of tea in a room where there’s no computer. For the sake of your health and general well being. There’ll be a few nice polls available shortly and comments do seem to be a bit more objective on here following some new data.

  43. Ben,

    I would’nt readilly dismiss the OnePoll. In cities such as Glasgow, Newcastle and Sheffield, Tories will hold their noses and vote Liberal Democrat (anti-Labour).

    In places such as Shropshire, E Anglia and the SE, considerable volumes of Lib Dem votes will come from Labour supporters. (anti-Tory)

    The Lib Dem band wagon I believe will be used as a “tactical vehicle” by anti- Lab/Con depending on where you are, this will keep them running high, tactical voting seems to be a big issue in this particular election.

  44. @Colin G,

    Well if you care to scroll back through the posts.. I have sufficently enhanced the intelligent discussion regarding the polling.

    Your opinion, whilst noted, i sbest kept to yourself.

  45. I think we all need a new poll… ;)

  46. @Eoin Clarke

    “Your opinion, whilst noted, is best kept to yourself.”

    I’ll take that as a yes.

  47. @Grem3,

    If it is ICM first, you may run for cover…..

    For Angus Reid later I’ve booked an air riad shelter :)

  48. @Colin G,

    Take that as intellectual fustration :)

  49. icm
    on skynews
    cons 36% lab 29% lib 27%

  50. ICM reported on PB site as 36 – 27 – 29

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