There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.

771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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    RE: AL J

    Yes, I’d think it may have crossed Anthony’s mind but it’s a delicate situation to be sending e-mails about.

    Anthony is being very understanding about personal messages being posted on a professional polling site – I very much appreciate him allowing that.

    He was incredibly kind to Kyle & I’m sure he’ll be pleased to see AL J posting again when she feels up to it.

  2. In my last the table came out all funny. :-(


    If the rumours of ICM CON 36 (+3) and LD 29 (-1) are correct, Patrick Hennessy’s comments point to a big drop for Labour.

    Am I the only one who finds poll rumours stressful? I suppose I don’t have to look….

  4. FrankG

    I know perfectly well how to work out swing, thankyou very much. It is how you then apply it to any other piece of data where the probem starts.

    So answer me this: If UNS were 10% Lab to Lib Dem, how would you calculate the Labour vote in a seat in the SW where Labour got 8% in 2005? If you use the “standard method” you get a negative labour vote

    Adding and subtracting % swing is an approximation that only works where the local vote percentages are close to the national ones, or if the swing is small (<2%)

    There must be some other numerate people on here who will back me up, surely!


  5. @Nick Hadley,

    “The zeitgeist is Conservative”? Really? That’s diametrically opposed to all the “the vast majority of the country is centre-left and wants to avoid the Tories destroying the country” comments I read here.

    As I said, I personally think there is always a bit of shyness about voting Tory, whatever their poll ratings. Anti-Toryism is quite simply a very vocal, very personal, very vitriolic mantra. And “all the cool kids” are left-wing.

  6. @Howard,

    From that it appears that the Tories are awarded 42% of the Dont Knows. Labour is awarded 24% of the DKs
    Lib Dems awarded 34% of the DKs

    Yes it certainly does favour the Tories. I wonder how they come to that calulation? especially given that %s of those that did kno whow they were going to vote was much closer.

    YG obviously think don’t knows will break from blue in greater numbers…

    do they have question to press them on their leanings?

    Ironically, it goes agaisnt AR stats. which suggest DKS are more likely to break for Yellow then Red and then Blue…

  7. I did not know that Al J was a woman – not important but I’ll bet it changed the way I posted in the past :-(

    I have to confess I am a ‘VLD’ bloke, silly I know

  8. My very best wishes to AL J. I’m very sorry to hear her sad news.

  9. YG 28.4.10

    Well that’s why I was scared to post. I have assumed 15 Con are ‘additions for LTV’ rather than DK’s coming down on Con as decision.

  10. @ Howard

    I am fairly sure she is a she – but in previous posts AL J has shown that s/he finds the gender confusion amusing; so you needn’t be concerned about it.

    And Éoin will now tell us there are more than 2 genders & add to our perplexity.

  11. Actually howard funny you got me think.
    If we emove the DKs and NVs (Obviously) Then you are left with those certain to vote. If we just take those weighted figures and calculate them ou tover 100% for the 28/04/10 then-

    Blues= 32.9%
    Red = 27.16%
    Yellow= 30.63%

    On rounding that would have been 33/27/31

    Anthony has admitted that the changes which they are bringing in eg… forecasting the DKs does generally add a 1% figure to the blue score….

    I am pretty sure I have got to the bottom of it….

    The bottom line is that all the talk about shy tories is invalidated by YG’s factoring in of this.

  12. Ambér,

    There are about 52 genders lol.

  13. @AmberS

    Yes, I agree (that’s why I said if appropriate). It’s a fine line between being intrusive and sharing the humanity and pain of someone you don’t know in person.
    Perhaps best to keep them in one’s mind (as with Darfur)

  14. I dare say that there may be a re-emergence of shy-Tories in the last few weeks. Cameron’s first debate was enough to make anyone a little embarrassed about voting for the party!!

    But on the “Britain is centre-left” nonsense: Brown was given a taste in Rochdale of how many voters of centre-left parties would agree with Norman Tebbit on many issues.

  15. Dotski

    “There is something very amusing about all the posts spreading *rumours* about *possible* results of *one* of *tens* of polls being released over the next few days.”

    The skill is to recognise which rumours are from reliable sources e.g. I think the ICM poll rumour that the Tories are on 36% with the LDs on 29% is probably accurate.

  16. @EoinC
    “There are about 52 genders”

    One for each week of the year and then there’s Yule when we are all angels :-)

  17. I think a majority of the public is right of centre on many social issues (i.e. crime/immigration/education etc.), but left of centre when it comes to wealth redistribution and welfarism.

  18. @Howard,

    Could you give me the weighted totals and %s for 29/04/10 or at least tell me how you got them? I would not mind calculating them…

    If nothing else they give us to the decimal point which is much better than these crude roundings….

  19. I think Britain is one of the most right wing countries in the western world. With the mild exception of healthcare.

  20. @Eoin
    I am pleased I seem to have set you on a line of thinking. I have to confess that I took science and maths A level simply because I was afraid to be called a cissy. The mid fifties were like that you know. I got a bare pass in Pure and Applied Maths (but it was SUJB – a different kettle of fish to Oxford).

    Perhaps Anthony may like to lift another veil.

  21. I am so sorry to hear the news about Al J. I am still getting over Bella but I am one of these spiritual people so I sometimes get messages from her from time to time. Try to remember the good times. That is all I can say as well as my best whishes to Al J and her family.

    Regarding the polls. Gob smacking.

  22. @GreenG…

    lol lol lol lol lol :)

  23. All this talk of ‘shy Tories’: I’m not having this. I cant remember an election when there’s been as many people unphased about saying the Tories might get their vote…I certainly dont detect anyone having to hide from view their Tory leanings. If the ‘shy’ vote scenario has any creedence I think it might be in people avoiding association with a maligned Labour campaign.

  24. @EoinC
    “I think Britain is one of the most right wing countries in the western world.”

    and at the same time one of the most individualistic (despite media attempts to the contrary) and I say that with a Spanish background where every individual is king.

  25. It was the 28.4.10 that I chose to investigate.
    I simply took the weighted totals on page 1. The big three added up to 1185 and that left 345. Then down below the not voting were said to be 5% (76). Then the DK’s were supposed to be 11% so I deduced 147. That left 122 odd for the Others which came to 8%. The last are a problem because that’s what they ended up after the statistical shenanigans (sorry adjustments).

    Does that help?

    I am picking up bad fibes about AL, can you let me know the problem please.

  27. @Eoin,

    “I think Britain is one of the most right wing countries in the western world.”

    The fact that Britain is one of the most right wing countries currently in the western world might go someway to explaining why the Western world has ‘gone to hell in a dustcart over the past 50 years’.:)

    (Just a joke BTW).

  28. Reference the ST/ICM Poll Rumour. Wasn’t last Sundays STPoll C-35%; LD 31% and Labour 26%? If so hardly a massive shift?

  29. I find many other European countries more right-wing than the UK in many ways. Certainly socially, anyway.

  30. 16% of Scotland votes Tory. 0% of Scotland admits they vote Tory. That’s shyness on a grand scale.

    Likewise when i tuaght at a borading school in Lincs. my first ever discussion with the Headmaster (bless him) was on the shambles that was new Labour. The women teachers were still not allowed to wear trousers. I can reveal though that there were a few closet reds.

    in short, it works both ways!

    Shy Greens, nope I have never met a shy green, although I will check under my bin when i go home…

  31. @Eoin

    Can I pick on your expertise on Sinn Fein.

    You have indicated in the past that you believe they would take their seats to support a LAB govt if necessary.


    Would they do the same to PREVENT a minority Con Govt and force another election, given that it would probably not surive for very long anyway before another election was needed.

  32. @Matt,

    Made me laugh!

    but at least we outside GB do not build nuclear submarines or waste our money on spacecraft… we’re all renaissance art and cathedrals! :) :)

    Yum I love garlic… ;)

  33. Shy voters
    The British, especially the older, are still reserved about this. We still record ‘won’t says’ when it is clear that they are a keen voter from the marked sheets. As a value judgement I would say they tend to be Tory but the rule is more often broken by the exception so it remains a grey area.

  34. Howard:

    I’d always assumed that Al J was far too nice to be a bloke.

  35. @ ROLAND

    AL J’s mother died a few days ago; I am not sure exactly when. AL J is heartbroken about it.

  36. @Eoin,

    “but at least we outside GB do not build nuclear submarines or waste our money on spacecraft… we’re all renaissance art and cathedrals! :) :)

    Yum I love garlic… ;) ”


  37. @John F,

    Nope all bets are off with the Sinn Féiners. they are eyeballing southern elections and a dilution of the nationalsit goal just to keep the blueys out doesnt play.
    Recent strategy hints that massive cuts and an unpopular bluey in power would play into their hands…. as it would SNP.

  38. @Roland/Ambér,

    Her mum died on wednesday.

  39. I haven’t met a shy Tory in a long, long time.

  40. I would actually describe myself as a shy Tory. I was talking to someone the other day and I was asked who I would vote for. I said I don’t know instead of Conservatives. I don’t know why. Just some brain freeze but probaly because I am not in the mood for partisan arguments. I am sure that many Labour voters feel the same way.

  41. @Mitz,

    Is that because after you’ve drawn breath having described Tories as overprivileged, gay-hating, fox-murdering, misogynistic Little Englanders who hate the poor and just want to enrich themselves you’re either met by a tirade of denial from the likes of me or, more likely…

    silence and a shrug of the shoulders…

  42. From all the hints given it could be as follows:

    C, LD, L

    36 29 25-27

    37 30 23-25 I doubt this as some hint would have given about a large Labour drop.

    35 28 26-28 Most likely.

    There could be a little Labour leakage to BNP/ others.

  43. @Mitz,

    But how would you know? They are so good at hiding it. I discovered two of them last week. McCarthy traisl begin tomorrow.

  44. @Kyle,

    I know lots of Shy Shinners so I could well beleive its true :)

  45. @Mitz
    “I haven’t met a shy Tory in a long, long time.”

    Where is PollyTicks today?

  46. Shy Tories

    I think that the problem is solved by the fact that the online impersonal polling systems produce the same percentages ( except Labour this time) as the phone people for Con. But the low Labour is not coming from face to face anymore than with online (see AR). So the latter feature is clearly to do with sampling or weighting.

    Thanks for letting me know, she (I did’nt know she was a girl) has my deepest sympathy.

  48. @KyleD
    “I am not in the mood for partisan arguments”

    Simple solution – go Green “-)

  49. Up utill today I was a Shy Tory. But the cats out the bag :)

  50. @Howard,

    how are you gettin the
    DK %
    NV %
    other %

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