There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.

771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. Re ICM – this might leak early as it is a telephone poll in the field yesterday.

    Tim Montgomerie has tweeted:

    ” Sun Tel/ICM national poll shows significant moves for 2 of the 3 main parties post TVdebate”

  2. twitter rumour: Sun Tel/ICM national poll shows significant moves for 2 of the 3 main

  3. In all but one election since 1951 88%+ of the seats did not change hands.

    Can someone express a reason as to why they believe 2010 is different?

    Bear in mind that the Libs got c.25.4% of the vote in 1983 and not much by way of seat change occurred. In fact on almost double their share of the vote the liberals cliamed an additional 12 seats under teh FPTP system.

  4. :-D

  5. Just watched Clegg on BBC in Wells. Amazing number of young people in the crowd. Is there a sub text to this that pollsters are not going to pick up?

  6. @WanderingWelshMan,

    “sorry matt , ”

    No need to apologise.

  7. Dave

    That was a very pompous post -if you want to be a politicain then go and stand somewhere. That reapeated beginning of sentences with the same clause makes me cringe. So sorry.

  8. Note that the last ICM was

    Con 33
    Lab 28
    Lib Dems 30

    So let’s take 2 off LD and give them to the Tories:

    Con 35
    Lab 28
    LD 28

    Ta-da – almost identical to last night’s YG (which has the same fieldword period) but fits the twitter.

  9. I am always sceptical about any rumours.

  10. ICM guess

    Blue 35%
    Red 28%
    Yellow 28%

  11. “Ta-da – almost identical to last night’s YG ”

    Except a 7% lead would excite many blues more, I’d say. It would be all to play for, if true IMO.

  12. There will also be an ICM marginals poll at the same time – an excellent chance to assess how much “marginals premium” there is.

  13. @Pankot,

    I wouldn’t expect a great deal – just enough if the Tories lead Labour by 8%, or thereabouts, on May 6th.

  14. @Howard
    “That reapeated beginning of sentences with the same clause makes me cringe”

    I found it appropriate in the context of PompeyO’s original post, although I do not agree with Dave either.

  15. @Dave

    “it is arrogant of the Liberals to stand on the centre left and not tell its supporters that a vote for the LDs would split the centre left and put the right wing tories in for a decade.”

    The arrogance is in assuming that a) The LibDems are just another centre-left party who is stealing votes from the rightful owners and b) that they will let the Tories in.

    The first assumption is wrong – LibDems do not fit naturally into a left-right spectrum. They support progressive politics but are totally opposed to Labour’s collectivist/dirigiste agenda and ambivalence about civil rights. If indeed you can describe labour as a party of the left today – I see them as state capitalists.

    The second assumption is also wrong. The rise of the LibDems has reduced, not increased, the chances of a majority Tory government. With Labour now polling at its lowest level for eighty years, you should be thankful that the LibDems are around to provide an opposition to the Tories.

    Mandelson today described the LibDem policies, with typical arrogance, as being a joke. I suspect that on May 7th the joke will be on him.

  16. Tim Montgomerie has tweeted:

    ” Sun Tel/ICM national poll shows significant moves for 2 of the 3 main parties post TVdebate”



    Hmmm. We’ll pretty soon get the Montgomerie definition of that. If it isn’t the Tories on 38% he needs to buy a thesaurus

  17. @Eoin – on this occasion great minds think alike! ;)

  18. I think if it shows the Tories on 36%, they’d be very happy.

  19. 35 28 28 doesn’t really represent a significant move for anyone?

  20. If we are doing ‘pet hates’, I’d auto-moderate any post containing the phrase:

    “You couldn’t make it up.”


  21. After all, election campaigns are all about momentum – as Eoin has often said – and the Tories were consistently scoring in the low 30s not long ago. Also, it would bring them close, if not over the finishing line IMO (depending on marginals etc.)

    I don’t believe the rumours though.

  22. @Yakobs

    The press’s definition of “significant” is not the same as a statisicians!! ;)

    I have seen a 1-point rise described as a “surge” – and let’s not forget the comres “humdinger” incident. ;)

  23. Matt,

    I agree that the Tories would be v happy with 36% at this stage but a “significant move” would perhaps be 37%, perhaps dragging the LibDems with them to 35% with Labour left trailing further behind. But like you say, the rumours could be nonsense and frequently are,

  24. Also, for all we know, it could be Labour who will be benefit in this polls (i.e. be one of the two parties). The twitter doesn’t indicate which party will/has gained.

  25. Pankot,

    Point taken

  26. @ Yakobs – “35 28 28 doesn’t really represent a significant move for anyone?”

    No, it doesn’t but that doesn’t make it insignificant. For example, we have Labour on or just below its supposed “bedrock” support now and it will probably stay there. This, I think, is the main effect of Duffygate and the bad post-debate poll headlines for Brown – not a further decline in Labour’s share of the vote (already so low) but rather the end of any serious hope of an improvement.

  27. There are about 6 polls today if i am not mistaken.


    this is good news for Labour, saturday is usally devoid of Harris’ and also this week will not have an Angus Reid. If polls do shape momentum I am very sursprised that blueys di dnot commission a dozen harris/opinium/angus’s to blast reds momentum out of the water…

    expect the overall average in this polls to show a c.5%-6% in the blue lead…. (over red ;) )

  28. yougov tracking poll , 1st may , just on sky news

    again , I hope this isnt last nights ?..just changed to today as last nights was late ?

    t 34
    lab 28
    lib 28

  29. Dave

    ‘the Liberals to put pipping Labour to the come second above the good of the country, it is arrogant of the Liberals to stand on the centre left and not tell its supporters that a vote for the LDs would split the centre left and put the right wing tories in for a decade’

    This is nonesense. UKIP, Greens, Liberal democrats, Liberals (not the same), SNP, PC, etc have as much right to stand as Labour or Conservatives. If they attracty votes to their cause, that is what they are doing. UKIP are distinct from the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats from Labour, the Greens from Labour etc.

  30. @wanderingwelshman

    If it isn’t last nights then it is no change from last nights.. which isn’t impossible, last night was almost no change from the night before.

    There will be a lot of polls tonight and each paper will be furiously talking up “their” poll. More important than ever to step back and look at the totality of the polls in round (taking into account fieldwork dates and past record.)

  31. Ricahrd O – I agree with Paul Croft, Campbell’s ~JOB is to spin, the media’s should not be.

    Also, he has spent his entire career swimming against the Tory press tide – must get beyond bearable at times.

  32. Wandering Welshman

    That is last nights they are reporting.

  33. Careful with the “dates” of polls. Usually they are commissioned for newspapers, so technically a May 1st poll would be one published in the newspaper on May 1st. Which means that it would be released the night before, on April 30th. (Of course the fieldwork dates often mean it is neither).

  34. Over 170 candidates pledged to Simultaneous Policy (

  35. Amusing Clegg quote on BBC. Asked how many seats his party was targeting he answered “The sky’s the limit”. You’d have thought a LibDem of all people would understand the expression “targeting”!

  36. Andrew Grice in the ‘Independent’ points out the 1983 effect of a split in the non-tory vote and Cons to pick up more marginals than polls suggest

  37. @Neil A,

    That met with a very loud chuckle here in Belfast

  38. James L.

    Yes I agree a 35 28 28 wouldn’t be without significance and might well represent the best result Labour could hope for. People like me are deceived into thinking “significant move” means literally what it says – when it probably doesn’t.

  39. ah right

    bbc last night had yougov up , last day of april

    now same poll is up , changed to date of 1 may

  40. Wanderingwelshman – As you apologised three times, I’ll let you off, but don’t do it again!!
    I agree with matt, the next few polls are crucial for all and 36s would not have been the direction I was hoping for lol ;)

  41. New poster tho’ read comments every day.

    I’ve read about Shy tories which may push their vote up by 1%-2% on May 6th, but do we suspect their are Shy Labour as well. It may be that telling pollsters that you suport Lib Dems is the ‘trendy’ response.

  42. Quite significiant the various campaigning strategies today vs the polls.

    NC in the South West aiming for gains vs the Conservatives and of course defending his base

    GB in the NE desperately trying to shore up his base, in this case against the LibDems

    DC err…campaigning in his Oxfordshire constituency?!

    One of those looks either supremely confident or else just a tiny bit complacent. And nobody in the Midlands or North West where most of the key marginals are. What a strange election.

  43. I expect the average of tonights polls, when they are all finally released, to have each party at these percentages, with an MoE of 1%

    Blue 34%
    Red 29%
    Yellow 27%

  44. I’d go

    Blue 36
    Red 27
    Yellow 26

  45. @Eoin

    Looks very plausible – and if that result were repeated on polling day, we’d be in for a nailbiter!

  46. I am now going to a Bluebell Wood Amber – annual compulsory pilgrimage for me. Soothes the soul.

    I also cannot bear the “rumour2 stage of polling, so hope to come back to some good news rather than the Pickles/Wheelan stand-off

  47. Eoin

    I think your faith in the Labour vote is way too optimistic .

    C 35, LD 30, L 26, Oth 9

  48. @EoinC

    Are your Others slightly higher than they used to be?

    CAPTCHA code NUT5 :-)

  49. I shall hope for a 33/31/27 average.

  50. @ Eoin & Scotty

    Why are you expecting yellow to fall suddenly now, when nothing has happened to cause this, and when they have been steady for the past 2 weeks?

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