There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.


771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. Shocking poll for Labour but a poor one for the Tories too. I really don’t know how this election is going to pan out

  2. Yes, difficult to call, but one thing’s clear Libs aren’t going away.

  3. It will be interesting to see the last polls taken before the election and see which pollster was the closest to the end result… but also interesting to see how right or wrong the “uniform swing” models for seats are if the Lib Dems continue to hold their vote in the high 20’s or 30% range.

  4. You can get 50-1 on GB majority! easy money……

  5. @Sue,

    “What’s the etiquette for May 7th?
    Do we all respectfully leave each other to mourn/celebrate?
    Do some stick the boot it while other’s try to sympathise?
    I guess there’ll be no more polls, so officially, nothing to talk about anyway.”

    I guess a few gloaters will come on here – that’s inevitable!

    I will come on here regardless of the result. If Labour wins, I will offer my verdict (for what it’s worth) and my congratulations to reds and their supporters.

  6. I still think the traditional anti-Tory bias of polls, plus their higher levels of support will just be enough to pull the blues across the finish line.

  7. This is going to the wire, right to the wire, nail-biter, right up until the first returns start coming in, and then it will become clear that the tories will pick up enough seats on the back of the labour falloff to the libdems in lab-con marginals to form an easy government.

    The real interest comes next time, when the Libs will have pushed labour into 3rd in a lot of marginals and several years more exposure (this genie is not going back into the bottle, even after May 6th, methinks) and may then have the springboard to power that they are looking for.

    Thoughts?

  8. even on such a poor showing , the tories will still be 40 seats short of a majority

    the problem for the tories is that the labour vote may drop , but the liberals rise

    and it still keeps them well away from a clear majority

    SKY “lets have a look at the first polls since the debate ”

    yes, lets have a look

  9. FrankG

    I have the break downs for all regions but didnt want to bore ppl with numbers that much. Just chucked them in as i saw you where talking about the North marginals.

    I will put up the rest, sorry for anyone who is put off.

    Wales
    Con 24.8
    Lab 35.5
    Lib 25.9
    Other 14.8
    101.0

    East Mid
    Con 34.3
    Lab 31.2
    Lib 28.9
    Other 7.4
    101.8

    West Mid
    Con 36.2
    Lab 30.1
    Lib 26.9
    Other 6.4
    99.6

    East
    Con 41.0
    Lab 21.5
    Lib 29.9
    Other 6.4
    98.7

    London
    Con 38.7
    Lab 31.0
    Lib 24.7
    Other 6.3
    100.7

    South East
    Con 47
    Lab 16
    Lib 31
    Other 7
    100

    South West
    Con 38
    Lab 16
    Lib 37
    Other 8
    99

    Scotland
    Con 15.9
    Lab 34.9
    Lib 22.5
    SNP 22.1
    Other 4.9

    However do keep in mind that the numbers on the latest regional poll never properly added up so neither will these. But nonetheless they are a pretty decent indication as to how things stand in the regions.

  10. “I still think the traditional anti-Tory bias of polls, plus their higher levels of support will just be enough to pull the blues across the finish line.”

    I hope so. If they lead Labour by 8-9% on polling day, they will be pretty close, if not over the finish line IMO.

  11. Surely this MUST be a rogue poll if true GB is toast

  12. So it looks like the Lib Dems are keeping up their momentum.

    One would think that the Guardian’s support of the Lib Dems will have a big impact, but then again we’ve just had two big “events” that have had no noticeable impact, so I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Lib Dems were to LOSE points as a result!

    Incidentally, a lot of people (including the Guardian editorial staff) seem to think that PR is a done deal. But I would be surprised if, even if the Lib Dems hold the balance of power and a Lib-Lab coalition could govern, Labour MPs (especially the young ones) would be voting to put themselves out of a job if they introduced PR. Would they do that just to save Brown’s skin?

    More likely, in such a modality, is that the Labour leadership form a minority government and do a deal with the Lib Dems (probably in a pact form) offering Clegg a party-list elected House of Lords*, a referendum on AV and Gordon Brown’s head on a platter. In return, Clegg does the Dance of the Seven Veils (or Support of the Four Budgets).

    * I try to restrain my own opinion on political matters, but I cannot help but express my disapproval of this idea. It would be a crying shame if the main casualty of the expenses scandal was the most successful institution in our political system. The House of Lords has protected our civil liberties precisely because it is an unelected chamber and therefore not answerable to the party whips. While it is the fashion to apply “reason” (ie. personal prejudice) to political reform, I am a pragmatist at heart and I have heard no empirical arguments against the House of Lords, just drivel like “It isn’t part of a true democracy” or “It is anachronistic”. Poppycock of the highest order.

    What’s next? The monarchy? The separation of the armed forces from the government? The independence of the judiciary?

  13. and I must add

    SKY are dreadful and the bias is nauseating

  14. I always thought that the anti-Tory bias in the polls was put down to Tories being more reticent to “come out” to pollsters than supporters of other parties.
    At a time when the government is apparently so unpopular surely that shouldn’t be the case?

  15. Matt

    I thought blues would have a majority of 1 -10 is that what you think???

  16. Eoin,

    Never bet, but asked at the bookies what a majority meant – absolute majority or working majority?

    Blank looks, then,

    ‘Biggest percentage?’

  17. This would give the Tories a majority. Don’t go with UNS its nonsense. Though how the LibDems would fare is fascinating.

  18. @Eoin
    Don’t waste your money. Did you get my latest just before new thread was announced.

    @Xiby
    Did you get my comment of the PH weekly chart NE 103% error. Have found out why. Your latest YouGov has the same error for NE.

    Thanks for the latest charts, very relevant.

  19. @ Eoin

    “You can get 50-1 on GB majority! easy money……”

    Sorry, not going to happen.

  20. How ridiculous it is that if this poll were repeated on election day it would lead to the following distribution of seats

    Con 269, Lab 215, LD 137

    Sure we just have to get rid of FPTP.

  21. The Harris Labour number looks low but so have all their labour scores recently. On the other hand, their result for the Lib Dems is a fairly good one by Harris standards. Conservative’s result of 33 is so-so. There has been no real change for a while now. Roll on next Friday and the real result.

  22. *Surely

  23. of course its a rogue poll !

    blimey most are there or there abouts

    once in while we get these silly ones

    this one is very silly

    of course sky put it up first , as they are not biased in any way

    lots said about harris poll..nothing about you gov ….lol

    oh ..and of course the guardian and times stories

    they must think the electorate are brain dead

  24. I don’t want to give Eoin too much hope in his eternal quest to convince us all that the Tories will end up on 38% and the LDs on 22% (no evidence whatsover for either at the moment) but this poll looks suspiciously out of line to me with what’s gone before.

    It MIGHT show a bit of a reaction to Duffygate, but I don’t believe Labour are quite that low or the LDs quite that high given the stability of the other polls.

    And can someone please tell me why Brown can apparently do well (I didn’t watch it myself, so based on possibly partisan comments on here) in a 1:1 against Paxman but look so totally out of his depth and so uneasy when confronted by Cameron and Clegg?

  25. @Peter Lucas,

    A few weeks ago, I predicted that the Tories would get a majority of 18. Since then, I have realised that this election has become increasingly hard/impossible to predict. I do think the Tories will probably be the largest party, but I think it’s more likely now that they’ll only win about 300 seats i.e. short of an overall majority. I hope I;m wrong though!

  26. @Bill Patrick

    I happen to agree with you on the efficacy of the house of lords (since they got rid of the hereditaries), but unfortunately we are in a very small minority. An elected upper house seems inevitable whatever happens next week.

  27. @Tony Fisher,

    No one can predict the outcome of this GE – even Eoin, and he’s very knowledgeable. It’s just a very unpredictable GE.

  28. Mums (Mumsnet give Libs 43%) and students….ie the future…seem to supporting the Lib Dems in droves…it’s the old timers who are keeping the Tories going.

  29. Gulf of Mexico oil slick = a reminder of what happens when the private sector is not regulated: add to that recent Banks massive profits having been bailed out by the public sector…..this is a good story for both the Labour and Lib Dem party.

    terrible news for Cameron’s Conservatives…

  30. “How ridiculous it is that if this poll were repeated on election day it would lead to the following distribution of seats

    Con 269, Lab 215, LD 137

    Sure we just have to get rid of FPTP”

    No, the Tories would be close, if not over the finish line with the marginal/regional effect on individual seats, I reckon.

  31. Re Wandering Welshman. I don’t think we can dismiss this poll. Besides it really isn’t that good for the Tories. If they can only poll to the same levels as 2005 its a desperately weak endorsement for Cameron.
    It is a dire poll for Labour although the gap between Con and Lab iin this poll is very similar to 3 weeks ago when it stood at 10%.

  32. the reason why I dont think this poll would give the tories a majority is because ……I think the poll is nonsense

    yougov makes sense …….a lot of people on the radio and tv today were saying that they didnt agree with camerons rise to king again ..and that gordon brown and clegg were still puling him back

    yet this evening we have a poll saying cameron is worse than he was , labour were even worse than everyone thought and the liberals suddenly jumped up after a week of stabilising poll vote

    its nonsense

  33. @SUE
    “Do some stick the boot it while other’s try to sympathise?”

    I suggest we go back through the old posts and congratulate those who were closest with their predictions. Then stick the boot in on all the Labour self deluded individuals who think GB is going to win this one.

    Personally I think it is going to be a fun night all round.

  34. @Xiby
    Solved the NE regional error on Regionals weekly cahartr at PH

    Figures should read

    North East C20 L39 LD35 0 6
    Changes last week C-5 L-6 LD11 O 0
    Changes since GE2005 C 0 L –14 LD 12 O 2

    These tie up with GE2005 data plus notional changes. Others figure was haywire
    GE2005 C20 L53 LD23 O 4

    This gives Lab/Con 7.0
    Lab/LD 13.0
    Con/LD 6

    Your latest regional YouGov is also showing NE Others too high by 3, hence total is 103.1 and not 100.1

    April 30th, 2010 at 8:42 pm

  35. Lots of people here crying that this is a rogue.

    I don’t think so. Harris has been valuing labour low for the entire campaign, that doesn’t make Harris ‘rogue’, it makes them consistently different. It’s a methodology difference rather than sample variation, surely.

    Are they right or wrong? Find out on the 7th of May.

  36. @ Jack

    I’m going to make a note of that post just in case!

  37. @Eoin Clarke
    @All
    Have you noticed that for NE and NW Con on Xiby’s charts is still at GE2005 % but Overall Con % is 34%. Think their percentage is being dwarfed by extra LD effect. Hence you should anticipate the Con % outside these two areas to be slightly higher than their overall 34% is actually indicating.

    The collapse of the Lab vote in the NE and NW is still allowing the ’static’ Con vote % to take Lab/Con with swings of NE 6.5 and NW 5.0, giving them 15 Lab marginals as at the moment.

    April 30th, 2010 at 8:57 pm

  38. For those of you interested in predicting outcomes on the basis of other evidence than polls, you may wish to look at Falkirk, where the former (and very popular Labour MP, then Independent MSP) has endorsed the SNP.

    The former Labour MP, Eric Joyce, twittered this tonight.

    “I hate politics, I really do. I’m crap at it. But who do folk want to do this stuff? I hope it’s people who give a toss. GB’s one of those.”

    A surprising comment if he still had hopes of victory.

  39. @XIBY

    Thanks for all of your regional data. I am running a seat by seat analysis of Tory Top 250 targets trying to factor in WAY too many things. You are saving me so much time on the regional swing element.

    Also factored in are Top 50 Lb Dem targets.

    UNS is a dead methodology and will not work at this Election at all. Swingometers are dead. The only way to predict seats is to build from the bottom up. Which is painfully hard work.

    Thanks again

    Harry

  40. @ Matt

    Thanks Matt Isee your resoning but the pols always seem to understate the Blues true percentage vote. A Big IF I know but a lot of Labour voters could simply not bother fiving DC a small win. Do we really want a Blue win?? Let Labour/Lib dems for a coalition which will end in chaos another vote Tort landslide HMMM

  41. @FrankG

    yes i noticed the mistakes in the total percentages, but as my numbers are based on that PH regional poll, they will keep that mistake. However i had to stay with those numbers as they are the latest and most reliable we have to go by unless anyone has found others.

  42. A better spin surely is:

    Tories spend £18m to garner 34% – 36% of the vote
    Labour spend £7m for 26% – 28% of the vote
    Lib Dems spend £3m for 28% – 30% of the vote.

    I know who I would trust to get best value for money out of the government budget!

  43. “One would think that the Guardian’s support of the Lib Dems will have a big impact,”

    Only if you’re the sort of person who can’t make a decision for yourself and have to be told what to do.
    And since Guardian readers are so self righteous I would be surprised if many of them would think “I’ve voted Labour all these years, but now I have to switch to Lib Dem because the Guardian says so.”

  44. We should never dismiss any poll as a rogue without further evidence. However, I do value YouGov over Harris, I must admit.

    I think the Tory lead over Labour is probably around 7% (as in many recent polls).

  45. Clegg always picks up after a TV debate and then sees his share of the vote drop during the week.

    I reckon as follows.

    Tory 37%
    Labour 30%
    Liberal 25%

  46. If there is to be an elected upper house it would make much more sense imho if it was elected on largeish STV constituencies (perhaps based on the county and metropolitan boundaries – as long as electorates were roughly equal)

    Then it would give proportional results, and not be at the behest of party lists.

  47. Willm,

    It will be a shame to see it go. I fear that all the elements of “British Democracy” are under threat and the attacks are far more subtle than PR, which (in an STV form) is perfectly compatible with the principles of British Democracy.

    Here is a testable hypothesis: within ten years of the House of Lords being (effectively) abolished, we will have ID cards, 42-90 day detention and various other infringements on civil liberties. Since people apparently don’t vote on civil liberties (they didn’t in 2005 and it’s not an issue with which the Libs or Cons been able to beat Labour in this election) one can only assume that we’ll more or less sleepwalk into a “managed democracy” in form one finds in Italy or Russia.

  48. BRYAN,

    if the Tories can get an absolute majority on 33% that really would show how ridiculous FPTP is.

    I don’t think they can though. 33% is exactly what they got last time and to get a majority they have to shift about 5% (absolute) of it into marginal seats compared to 2005. No evidence this is happening – 2% marginal boost at most and even that disappeared last week.

    On the Harris Poll the Tories would suffer a net loss to the Lib Dems and would struggle to get into the second 50 of their target seats vs labour. Tories might get a majority on 36% if Labour are well down

  49. @ JACK JONES

    Is obnoxious your middle name?

  50. The poll shouldn’t be dismissed. It just shows a slight dip for Labour/Tory and a slight rise for Lib Dem. It’s not particularly unusual but people are viewing, say, 31% as a definite figure for polling day, rather than a variance with margins of error. If later polls show Con:29/30, Lab: 23/24 and LD: 32/33, then it’s part of a movement. As of now, it’s only slightly different from a margin of error.

    @ROB SHEFFIELD
    “a reminder of what happens when the private sector is not regulated: add to that recent Banks massive profits having been bailed out by the public sector…..this is a good story for both the Labour and Lib Dem party.”

    The Labour Party? But they were in charge for over a decade when that happened. Unless you mean Arthur Scargill’s Socialist Labour Party?

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