There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.

771 Responses to “Harris/Mail – 33/24/32”

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  1. James C

    Ok, thanks

  2. I am watching David Cameron signing ‘the contract’ on BBC. I wonder if this contract is as good as his cast iron guarantee.

  3. ICM data is now available at:

    w w w

  4. Ash

    I also understand that Brown is signing a contract with the BBC to replace Paxman on Newsnight.

  5. @yakobs
    I think Paxman v Brown and The Guardian endorses the LDs will have zero effect on the polls.From now on it’ll about about people being more focused on the day that matters.Where that takes us is anyone’s guess.Although I’m still sticking to my prediction of a small Tory majority.

  6. Guardian will have impact on its wavering left / centre readers–it’s opinion may sway them to vote LD instead of Labour

  7. Yozza

    You are probably right – and I agree with your prediction that the Tories are going to get a majority.

  8. Isn’t kind of Cameron to offer us a contract saying we can vote him out in 5 years if he doesn’t fulfill it?

  9. @JACK

    “Guardian will have impact on its wavering left / centre readers–it’s opinion may sway them to vote LD instead of Labour”

    Do YOU decide who to vote for based on advice from a newspaper?!

  10. @ YAKOBS

    “I also understand that Brown is signing a contract with the BBC to replace Paxman on Newsnight”

    I think the report said he is “taking out” a contract on Paxman. ;-)

  11. Last weekend’s poll is more meaningless because it was conducted before the 3rd debate – which David Cameron won. 36% is a good % for the Tories. Not sure what to expect with other polls though. I am excited because I rate ICM very highly though.

  12. Back after a walk – couldn’t face hitting F5 for another 2 hours… lol

    Alas, it seems my refined rumour was a bit off! Con 36 and second place 29 was right, but it was Lab on 29 instead of LD – which makes a big difference seat wise.

    Plenty more polls to speculate about though!

  13. Lots of twittering about Angus Reid poll

    Cons 35 LDems 29 Lab 23

    Also a few tweeting about Yougov (a bit early?)

    Cons 34 Lib & Lab 28 (weren’t these yesterdays figures?)

  14. @ PAM F, Éoin,

    I have been astonished by Clegg’s pronouncements.

    At first he seemed to be inclining towards CON; then he seemed to be incling towards LAB, provided he got to choose who was PM (himself?)

    Now he is saying LD can win outright, the sky is the limit (Neil Kinnock moment, anyone?).

    Clegg has shown himself to be incapable of picking a strategy & sticking to it.

  15. Hi–
    Don’t know Com Res poll figures but it definitely has LAB ahead of LD.

  16. ICM published data (fieldwork on the 30th of April)

    Con 36
    Lab 29
    Lib 27

    Lab ahead of Lib, one of only 5 polls from the last 40 showing that. Both Lab and Lib figures are within MOE of their recent average. Con on 36 has been occurring every few days but is their highest figure since the debate. All within MOE so no real change.

  17. The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph is bearing out what I have been saying on here since the election was declared.
    Tories 36
    Labour 29
    Liberals 27.

    I am expecting the final GE to be 38/9
    Labour 28
    Liberals 26

    There would have been a hung parliament if thee had been no Liberal surge.

    The Liberal surge is taking votes from Labour splitting the centre left vote
    Tories are returning to the fold.

    Result the Liberals hand power to the tories who will hold it for the next decade. The Liberals by their own short lived success put off electoral reform for a generation.

  18. As a floater who will prob vote LIB/DEM have any of you blues on here realised that we all know the “cuts” will be swinging and painfull. The new Govt will rapidly be as popular as wind in a spaccesuit. Given that theTories will get a majnority of around 10 at most and have to call another GE in a couple of years AFTER all the pain and cuts when they will be swept from office once more and be out for years. Do you really want that ????

  19. Guardian switching allegiance won’t change a thing: Lib Dems and Labour hate each other already and always will do, more than they hate Tories; this is just further ammunition.

    The Times switching might sway some people though. Or at least confirm their existing decisions.

  20. Whilst I agree that the ICM is in line with my own thoughts some weeks ago (CamCon c +10maj) I disagree with your forecast relating to the next decade!

    We can’t really call next Thursday with certainty so how you conclude Tory will survive ALL the unpleasant things it has to do, and all the nasty things it WILL do – with a smallish maj and then remain in power till 2020 is pure Thatcherite jingoism – and quite frankly a load of b***ocks.

  21. NOTW/ICM marginals poll in 96 Lab/Con seats where swing of 4-10% will turn them blue on NOTW site

    35% for Cons and Lab swing from Lab to LDems of 7%, Lib Dems up 3% since last poll (doesn’t have a figure)

    Predicting Cons with 311 seats

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