YouGov’s daily polling tonight has topline figures of CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc). Obviously there is no significant change since yesterday. YouGov’s polls this week have been pretty static, Conservatives at 33-34%, Labour at 27-29%, the Lib Dems mostly around 28-29% aside from that one spike to 31%. Neither the Mrs Duffy affair nor the second debate seem to have had any great effect.

It looks like YouGov are entering the final week of the campaign showing a broad position of the Conservatives around about 34%, and Labour and the Lib Dems neck and neck in the high twenties.


255 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 34/28/28”

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  1. Al J
    So sorry, I do hope you are a stayer on this sitye, the camaraderie is really moving.

    AW’s intention to moderate us and our reactions thereto have had the happy unintended consequence of producing a community spirit for which teh Internet was surely intended,

    Bless you Al J

  2. These polls don’t make particularly good reading for the Tories. To still be on 33-34% after they told everyone Cameron had walked the final debate is a blow for them.

  3. @AL J…………..Very sad, be strong. Ken.

  4. I would suggest a significant proportion of Liberals new found support could be made up from anti Tory and anti-Labour votes, depending on where you are.

    A Tory in Durham would vote Liberal, whereas a Labour supporter in Devizes would vote Liberal?

    Tactical voting seems to play heavily at this election, I find it unfortunate people are unable to express their first choice under the current system without permitting a worse case scenario.

    As an SNP supporter being forced to vote Conservative to keep Labour out because I live in Stirling, I find FPTP somewhat un-democratic. SNP support further South in E.Renfrewshire will be forced to do the same.

  5. @JOHN TT – “Being honest is by far the most effective way of looking honest.”
    Right. So considering it’s politicians we’re talking about here, what’s the second most effective way? ;)

  6. US OBSERVER
    -What time will the media begin reporting election results May 6?
    -Do all polls close at the same time in the UK?

  7. Incidence of ‘flockingate’ in mainstream media:

    The Mirror: PM Thought Gillian had said F-word (today p7). He has hundereds of converations with labour voters on the topic, so why should this one be any different?

    PM saw any explanation as extending life of story, and given the near apoplectic reation of some on this site, another good call from GB.

    Guardian: Wrote a while ago contrasting their ciurrent petty vituperative tone with the principled opposition to Thatcherism in the days of Hugo Young. Yes… their comment is of little value

  8. @

    “Looks like we are going to be in for another contradictory night where everyone bigs up the poll that agrees with their preconceptions and rubbishes any that don’t”

    I don’t think we are all that simple-minded. I am no Tory but felt pretty convinced earlier in the week that they were beginning to pull away. Given the last 48 hours I am frankly amazed that YouGov is not indicating a rise in their vote. I was expecting 36 with a Labour fall

  9. Bit of a Brown love-in tonight, isn’t it? I’m sure completely non-partisan?

    @Chris box (and a good few others)
    That suggests that Lib Dems actually somehow support the Labour Party over the Tories. As a floating voter, going towards the LDs, I’ve got just as many issues with Labour’s ID Cards, Trident, bank regulation, foreign wars etc etc, as I’ve got with the Tories on simlar policies and their Inheritance Tax. Labour’s not been left-wing, or even centre-left for around 15 years now. Labour seems to me another right-wing party, so choosing them over the Tories is choosing measles over mumps.

    If either give PR, then I’d suggest Nick Clegg goes for it, but I’ve little trust Labour would do that, or the Tories. There truly is a third party to vote for.

  10. Richard O

    I am surprised about your comments iro Brown on the Paxman interview. Most, including myself, thought he was excellent and, as far as partisanship is concerned, I am not a Labour supporter. Brown was sure-footed with all his replies and was never trapped – however, as others have also pointed out, it is unlikely to give him a major boost in respect of the polls.

  11. Tried to post this when the site crashed:

    BIG NEWS! The Guardian newspaper has decided to support the Lib Dems for the election – main reason is they want PR and it is more democratic!

    The Sunday Times and Telegraph (hello Rupert!) have both gone for the Tories.

    Based on TV/Radio/Blog broadcasting, I want to repeat that I would want 4 debates, 2 on radio and TV and 2 just on radio, so we don’t get three Cleggs at the next election. I also believe today should be the last days for polls before election day to stop the herd instinct of the public….

  12. @THEREZA

    Polls close at 22:00…

    Results come in as and when declared throughout the night…

  13. I think the Yougov polls is (ironically) better for the Lib Dems than the Harris one.

  14. Final percentages 6th may
    Cons 40
    libs 24
    lab 22

  15. @Yakobs,

    He did get better as it went on.

    rich

  16. @ theresa 10pm london time… exit poll results 10:30pm first results onwards i think

  17. Such a shame for Labour about that 24% in Harris, and must be moritifying for Cons that only at around same level as 2005

  18. @Theresa

    – all booths close at the same time at 10pm if i am not mistaken.

    – the results from all constituencies will come at different times starting at about 45 minutes from the time voting stops.

  19. The Harris one is a disaster.

    They nornally take a week, tis one was cooked in a day.

    I would not be surprised if they used the same crew who watched the debate.

    The 2005 Harris or not the same people as the 2010 Harris. Different kettle of fish entirely.

  20. Does anyone have access to the raw data? How many ‘not sure’s or ‘undecided’s are there? How do they answer if pushed? Is there any indication of their second preference?

    In ’92, all the predictions were for a narrow Labour win, and even the exit poll had Lab & Con neck and neck. But as it turned out, there was a big “devil you know” effect to keep Major in power, together with “ashamed Tories”.

    So. How will the ‘undecided’s vote? And how many are there who are shy of admitting that they’ll be voting Labour?

    The fact is that, apart from Brown’s honeymoon, the last time the Tories polled this low was at the 2005 election. They simply aren’t attracting much more than their core vote. Unless something significant happens, I think a hung parliament is nailed on.

  21. @Eoin,

    What do you consider, in order, to be the most reliable polls, from gold standard to turd?

    rich

  22. Julian Gilbert – nice one! To answer that upside down, I’d say that the second best way of looking honest is NOT to say “Let’s be honest”. It just proves you’re not.

    (Applies to sales too)

    The third best way is to leave gaps for thought. People love watching people think. If you can pause, stare into the air without twitching, and then craft a short sentence with abit of chest resonance for an opinion, and a bit of head resonance for a fact, you’ll be on the right path.

    Without an ethically sound motive, though, you will fail, you will be found out.

    Perhaps that’s why so many political careers end in failure.

  23. Eoin Clarke

    If the latest charts from XIBY are anywhere near accurate, they show some interesting details.

    Have you noticed that for NE and NW, Con on Xiby’s latest regional chart is still at GE2005 % but Con overall is 34% (+1). Think their NE & NW %s are being dwarfed by extra LD effect. Hence you should anticipate the Con % outside these two areas to be slightly higher than their overall 34% is actually indicating, probably closer to 35-36%.

    The collapse of the Lab vote in the NE and NW is still allowing the ‘static’ Con vote to take Lab/Con with swings of NE 6.5 and NW 5.0, giving them 15 Lab marginals as at the moment.

    Similarly with Lab. Their NE & NW %s are 39.6 and 35.5, well, well above their overall %. This means that their % outside the NE & NW regions must be much smaller than their overall % is showing.

    Outside the NE & NW the gap between Con and Lab will be about 2 – 3 % more than shown in the current overall %.

    Draw your own opinions what this means to those Lab/Con marginals outside the NE & NW regions.

    Also don’t forget Scotland where Lab vote is at 36% above the overall Lab %, which means the % in the rest must again be slightly less.

    Sorry not opinion, but maths and logic.

  24. “Such a shame for Labour about that 24% in Harris..”
    Harris have been polling Lab about 3% lower than YouGov recently, so it’s consistent.

  25. The polls do seem to be showing Con support pretty stable at around 34%.Lab and Lib seem to fluctuate but aggregate at around 56%.
    I still have a hunch there will be a further swing to Con by next Thursday but if the polls carry on as they are we will remain in hung Parliament territory.
    What chance a Con/lib coalition. I wouldn’t bet against it.

  26. Any polling company that works for Express or Mail is best ignored – the right-wing loaded question distorts any relevance to the final question.

  27. @Richard,

    YG
    ICM
    MORI
    ComR
    Pop

    The rest Hmmmm……………

  28. @Matt

    “I think the Yougov polls is (ironically) better for the Lib Dems than the Harris one.”

    This is spot on!

  29. I rate YouGov, ICM and Mori as the best 3, if I’m being honest.

  30. Theresa,

    There will be exit polls by about 22.30 Uk time but the first results will be around midnight. Many places are not counting until Friday this year, so expect results to dribble in through the day.

    there are a lot of new constituencies (due to extensive boundary changes) which are very hard to call becaues no-one actually knows how they would have voted in 2005.

    I am flying to Cyprus on Thursday evening and will be relying on the internet like you

    andrew

  31. @bumpy

    “Final percentages 6th may
    Cons 40
    libs 24
    lab 22”

    Utter codswallop. You can dream!

  32. Three weeks ago Harris had Con at 40% so down 7%. They had Lab at 30% so down 6%. Libs were only at 20% so up a staggering 12%…again though the Lab/Lib aggregate IS 56%…

  33. Thanks Eon,

    Will we get ICM, Mori & Comres tonight?

    Rich

  34. @JOHN TT – “Without an ethically sound motive, though, you will fail, you will be found out. Perhaps that’s why so many political careers end in failure.”
    You could be onto something there. Is wanting to win an election an ethically sound motive, I wonder?

  35. One thing’s for sure – if we reach Thursday with current polling, it would be an incredibly nervous night for Tories and Labs alike. With a tri-partite systems, predicting seats, and who would win from the national share of the vote will be an absolute nightmare! I

  36. @Stevie Kingston on the battlefield

    Reasonably accurate suggestion.

    Through the years I have seen the Liberal Democrats used simply as a tactical vehicle for both Conservative and Labour. As for the SNP, it is very interesting you indicate your “tactical” Tory vote this year, I know somebody up there (somewhere in the Borders) who is doing the same.

    Tactical voting is a very interesting concept indeed.

  37. I’m still plumping for a very small Tory majority.I think they’ll pick yup enough in the marginals to nick it by a whisker.

  38. Conservatives hitting 40% right now seems unlikely unless the polls are way wrong or the “marginal effect” helps them big time. I’m inclined to think that clegg mania has thrown the “marginal effect” out of kilter so perhaps they won’t get so much as they hoped.

    Other than that, the most important things Cameron will be promising will be to Clegg, not the electorate. Cameron is odds-on favourite to be PM in just over a week, but not quite in the way he might have liked. It’s not going to be much fun at all for him.

  39. @ MIKE PEARCE

    ‘What chance a Con/lib coalition’

    Hope not – it would end my long (45yrs) support for the Libs

  40. Christopher – wrong, the voting intention question is asked first, so cannot be skewed by any other questions.

  41. @Tony Fisher & Bumpy

    Not only is that codswallop (Con 40; LD 24; LAB 22), it also doesn’t matter. There will be more variations and tactical voting than ever before. The UNS vote will mean nothing in a three party state.

  42. @Matt

    Did the polling companies alter their polling a little after 2005 to make up a little for the shy tory and pro labour bias.

    I remember reading that somewhere. If the tory/labour margin is a little wider than the polling indicates that could be helpful for the tories.

    If you go back to this point in the 2005 campaign Labour was in the high 30’s and they underperformed on election day. Then take out the scotland vote where Labour’s vote isn’t down at all and you see where labour could lose a lot of seats if the polling spread is just a little wider.

    One thing is for certain about this election there are going to be an awful lot of close counts. A lot of labour marginals that the tories need are right on the edge.

  43. I honestly wouldn’t like to predict. The vote in individual seats will not follow UNS in many cases, that is the only prediction I will make.

    I certainly wouldn’t want to be the election experts predicting the result for the exit polls next week, that’s for sure!

  44. Con-Lib coalition?

    Is there any policy area at all on which they agree?

  45. Julian Gilbert

    “Is wanting to win an election an ethically sound motive, I wonder?”

    About as sound as wanting to win a big bonus from your employer.

    If however you motive is consistent with what your employer boasts on its website, then there’s no need to worry.

  46. Doesn’T it all depend on how the Lib Dems pick up Labour votes in the Con Lib marginals?

  47. New Harris thread up

  48. IAN KEMP

    Fully agree Ian. I’m thinking of voting tactically for the Lib Dems but if it ends up with them in coalition with Con I really would be very hacked off…but I can really see it happening. Clegg seems happier attacking Brown. Surely he will have a far greater chance of PR from Lab? He certainly won’t get it from Cameron. Without PR it will be a long road to power for the Libs.

  49. What’s the etiquette for May 7th?
    Do we all respectfully leave each other to mourn/celebrate?
    Do some stick the boot it while other’s try to sympathise?
    I guess there’ll be no more polls, so officially, nothing to talk about anyway.

  50. Christopher,

    But of course a company that works for the Sun is just spot on!

    Only in the secondary questions and the prominence they give to the result do the papers show their bias. All the pollsters are just trying to get it right because their bread and butter (NOT political polling) depends on how well they can predict the result

    I note the Harris Poll is not yet on the Mail website Maybe it is really only a rumour, or maybe the Mail is having trouble spinning a poll with Tory and Lib dem neck and neck….

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