YouGov’s daily polling tonight has topline figures of CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc). Obviously there is no significant change since yesterday. YouGov’s polls this week have been pretty static, Conservatives at 33-34%, Labour at 27-29%, the Lib Dems mostly around 28-29% aside from that one spike to 31%. Neither the Mrs Duffy affair nor the second debate seem to have had any great effect.

It looks like YouGov are entering the final week of the campaign showing a broad position of the Conservatives around about 34%, and Labour and the Lib Dems neck and neck in the high twenties.


255 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 34/28/28”

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  1. Slow decline in LDs back to red

    Undecideds breaking for reds

    polling booth jitters

    PM = GB :)

  2. Lets not get too sanctimonious about two horse races shall we?

    let he (or she) that is without sin cast the first stone etc. Clegg was just enjoying a bit of wishful thinking (like many on here who think the Lib dems will end up on 22, the Tories on 40, Labour on 35 whatever, whatever), hoping that a gaffe and another perceived 3rd place would send Labour into a spin.

    I don’t think I actually remember any election campaign anywhere where at least two parties did not use the two horse race thing at some time!

    Andrew

  3. @Richard O,

    I’m still here. To put things into perspective, with the marginals/regionals and national polls taken into account, the Tories would still be the largest party XD.

  4. Harris has been around for ages as a polling organisation.I wonder why they haven’t gone the way of NOP and Gallup in taking a back seat. I don’t dismiss any poll but I tend not to give Harris the same weight as ICM and Yougov.

  5. Has the mood shifted tonight.
    David Miliband is fairly ‘chipper’ on campaign show

  6. Mori poll for publication tomorrow is being suggested elswhere as being Con/Lab/Lib as 38/28/27.

    Is anybody in a position to confirm or otherwise and when the fieldwork was conducted?

  7. Al J – NO! I’m so very, very sorry. We’ll be thinking of you every single day.

  8. Richard O – you might well be right about the campaign being a shambles – it’s certainly not been 1997 level of smoothness,

    but

    How can any poll showing Labour at least 6% behind just a few days before an election be good news!

    is answerable. Looking at the polls and what the pollsters were predicting a while back, the “not Tory” vote is clearly a big straw to cling to.

    Also, the notion that Cameron might not survice the result is a straw to cling to for those on all sides who are not happy with him (for wildly differing reasons)

    It’s fascinating, and I do hope our balanced modeerator allows for intelligent comment rather than simply snipping all who step over the line willy nilly.

    I miss Roland Haines in his periods of banishment

    :)

  9. @Matt – see above!! It was a tweet from Kevin McGuire that got misinterpreted.

  10. AL J Sorry to hear that too. That’s sad.

  11. I think that one must guard, if one is of the labour view , that a solidifying of the labour vote , even after the duffygate affair , does not a majority party make

    I think at best the aim must still to prevent a tory majority

    anything else is folly , in my book

  12. Yozza,

    On the 4th of May 2005 Harris’ poll was very close to the result – Con 33 Lab 38 Lib Dems 22.

  13. AL J

    Was wondering where you were,
    so sorry

  14. @AndrewCaig

    I also heard Ed Davey use the “it’s a two horse race” line earlier.I think it’s a party tactic rather than a Clegg one.I suspect they got carried away by the press after the debate and will now row back a bit.

  15. AL-J,

    I am very very very sorry to hear of your news. Prayers will be said. :(

  16. @Richard O

    Peter Kellner on the YouGov website has a very good explanation of why Labour can be 6% behind the Tories but get as many seats. It is because the turnout in Labour-held seats is much lower than in Tory ones. So fewer votes are needed to win.

    So the overall poll figures are misleading. It is still in the balance.

  17. Richard O – You are confusing the Labour campaign with the Murdoch press, that’s the problem.

  18. @ Richard O

    Are you Alastair Campbell in disguise?

    How can any poll showing Labour at least 6% behind just a few days before an election be good news!

    The campaign has been a shambles, from calling a member of the public a bigot, to elvis, peppa pig, car crashes. All metaphors for a break from Labour now.

    It’s good news for Labour becasue despite all of the things you mention, plus the worst recession since the second world war, two unpopular wars, a deeply unpopular PM etc.. Labour still has a chance of being the biggest party. THAT is the big story of this campaign. As Prof Andrew Gamble said earlier, the Tories should be walking this election; that they are not must be deeply worrying for them. If they can’t win big now, will they ever do so again?

  19. Utterly extraordinary and I don’t think I know anything about politics anymore. After one of the most truly horrendous few days in Gordon Brown’s long political career, somehow, in some hardly understandable way, the old curmudgeon is still hanging on in there. He’s still in the game and, while we need to see further opinion polling evidence, this poll has to be the most incredible morale boost for all those Labour activists and political footsloggers who, surely, must have the thought the game was up 24 hours ago.

    The old boy, if he eventually does go under, as still he might, will certainly go down fighting. You can’t help but admire him, can you, and he was still, in his gauche, awkward way, giving it his all, as he always does, on Paxman tonight. Extraordinary man in many ways.

  20. Eoin

    You have always presented as an intelligent chap- and I dont give false praise, however you are one of the most single tracked partisans I have ever seen- you are as deluded as a lady I canvassed with in ’92 who said Kinnock would get a majority of 50.

    Labour have been consistently behind the Tories for almost 2 years and are fighting the Liberal Democrats for second place in % of vote. Given any support in a coalition would be for GB’s removal, in all due respect to you, your comments are wildly invalid and quite ludicrous Eoin!!!

  21. As a Conservative supportor, my honest view on Brown, trying to be as non-partisan as possible is as follows;

    – I think he is a decent man who works very hard and believes he can make a real difference through Govt intervention. He also has more substance than Blair. The problem is that he is a very poor communicator, is clearly pretty nasty to work with behind closed doors, and despite writing a book called courage, has displayed little of this with his dithering and manifesto breaks, such as bottling an election and a European referendum, both of which he did because he thought he would lose.

    In this day and age you need a rounded person with a multitude of skills, and this is where Brown fails.

    ALJ- best wishes by the way.

  22. Thats at least twice the BBC have had the libdems lower than they should be on their website seat calculator thingy – anyone would think it is some kind of conspiracy. :-)

    Thanks for all the confirmation posts on the yougov figures.

  23. @George Gardner – see earlier in this thread.

    Good heavens Kevin McGuire, look what you’ve done!

  24. My prayers too Al- J – and Kyle Downing I’m still thinking of you too if you’re reading.

  25. On the basis that neither of the last two debates, or bigot-gate, or the other two Paxman interviews has made any difference whatsoever to the polls then I’m guessing that Gordon Brown managing to keep it together for 20mins with Paxo is not going to have any consequence either. When asked today whether Labour would win, Blair said that they would be “successful”. That to me is worth a week of polls.

  26. Gordon is still standing despite the sneers

  27. Richard O,

    Let’s look at the positives:-

    1) The Tory lead over Labour and vote is better than it was about a week/week and a half ago, when it was only 4-5%. The Labout tightening of the lead has seemingly run out of steam.
    2) The polls, including exit polls, have always had a tendency to overestimate Labour vote. Not saying that will necessarily happen this time, what with perhaps improvements in methodology, but it’s possible (just as the polling booth jitters may be in Labour’s favour potentially).
    3) The Tories would still gain more seats than Labour on current polling (with marginals and regionals).
    4) There is still a week to go. A gain of around 3% would be enough for a majority, or very close to one, IMO. This is still within the Tory’s reach.

  28. But Eion

    You suggested the tories at 38% by the weekend just gone and staying there. They didn’t get close.

    For the last two weeks you’ve also been suggesting that Lib Dem support would retire to past (2005 etc) levels. Again, no sign. Infact it’s solidfied at +28%.

    Is your crystal ball cloudy?

  29. Latest YouGov detail (not headline) shows Con at 33% which is where they ended up in 2005. So David Cameron is back to where they started 50 years ago. A very strange week is ahead as anyone could still come out on top.

  30. @George G.

    I humbly accept your view. :(

  31. AL J

    My deepest condolences. I lost my parents around 10 years ago so I know exactly what you’re going through.

  32. I have no false hope that there are more game changes, except the pre-electoral jitters.

    Just for a a extenuated sense of irony Miliband is doing well on the campaign show.

    But I doubt we will see many changes till the last 48-24 hours if any.

  33. sorry I meant 5 not 50

  34. Nick Hadley, I was and it does.

  35. Politics Home twittering Harris poll for Daily Mail

    Cons 33 LDems 32, Lab 24

  36. BBC are saying a Daily Mail/Harris poll is Con – 32 Lab – 24 LD – 31

    I’d say the Yougov poll is more accurate (and I’m a LD supporter) but you never know…

  37. AL J, I am sorry to hear of your sad loss. May her soul rest in peace! I will say a prayer.
    Ash

  38. That Harris poll also confirmed on political betting.

  39. Julian Gilbert –
    Re camera technique, I agree that in the 2nd debate Cameron obeyed his coach by addressing first the questioner and then the lens.However, he did so with such littlke finesse that it was obvious he was using technique, and therefore robbed him a little of what he would havve had if he’d had time to practise flicking eye contact between lens and questioner, and to practise using phrases like “in the wider context” before looking at the lens.

    Brown eschewed such technique for reasons only he knows, but might be…

    He can’t physically see the lens (they are smll, and looking an inch off the lens is worse than not looking at it)

    He doesn;t have a coach and didn;’y have time to find the relevant chapter in his piles of books

    Or

    He decided on proinciple not to learn how to be a consummate actor in the time left for preparation

    I sincerely hope it was the last reason. I always advise the best way to come across wll is to master the subject and have an ethically sound motive.

    Being honest is by far the most effective way of looking honest.

  40. @ Al-J

    My deepest condolences. Best wishes for you and your family.

  41. @Matt,

    I agree. In reality the lead should be bigger, but none of the poll give us a good picture of things like London, marginals, shy Tory vote etc.

    It’s the most open election since 1992.

    Will we be able to fire up the Quattro? I hope so!

    rich

    ps: just watched the Paxman interview with GB. The partisan comments on here are crazy. I thought he was awful for the first part, then picked up towards the end. None of the leaders will give an honest view of cuts, and Brown was just the same. ‘efficiency savings’ is code for not sure on specific cuts, we’ll tell you after the election.

  42. “My prayers too Al- J”

    My prayers too.

  43. Having savaged GB over the last few days, how long before the media turns on DC for blowing the chance of a clear majority? I reckon they might start to put the boot in even before election day, just so they can say afterwards that they said all along that the Conservative campaign was weak.

  44. so , YOUGOV has arrived

    whats next this weekend ?

    harris ?

    Mori ?..or is that next week

    Comres
    Bpix
    Populus ……..all tomorrow ?

  45. Theresa
    Gordon Brown is the most resilient politician since the war. If anyone has bounce back ability, this man has. If there were anyone undecided watching this tonight, their only conclusion must be that this man is the real deal.
    Still 5 days to go.
    It’s not over till it’s over.
    ….and what a story that would make!

  46. Philip JW,

    Yes the only thing Harris got wrong in 2005 was the Labour % – 2% too high!

    Looks like we are going to be in for another contradictory night where everyone bigs up the poll that agrees with their preconceptions and rubbishes any that don’t – taking the average of several (with some objective weighting as Anthony does), is the only smart thing. Of course Anthony will always give youGov the best weighting!

  47. so harris again might be a drop for labour , but the closeness of lib still usurps tory majority ?

  48. Political Betting has had the Harris poll up for well over an hour now – Con 33 Lab 24 Lib Dems 32 – somewhat odd that its still not yet up here.

  49. AL J was one of my favourite contributors. I really do hope s he posts soemtime soon. :(

  50. “AL J was one of my favourite contributors. I really do hope s he posts soemtime soon. :(”

    Me too.

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