YouGov’s daily polling tonight has topline figures of CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc). Obviously there is no significant change since yesterday. YouGov’s polls this week have been pretty static, Conservatives at 33-34%, Labour at 27-29%, the Lib Dems mostly around 28-29% aside from that one spike to 31%. Neither the Mrs Duffy affair nor the second debate seem to have had any great effect.

It looks like YouGov are entering the final week of the campaign showing a broad position of the Conservatives around about 34%, and Labour and the Lib Dems neck and neck in the high twenties.


255 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 34/28/28”

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  1. what does a 33 24 32 poll give us ?

    as per harris ?

    of course we can assume swings etc

    but is that still hung parliament territory ?

  2. Ok, found the official figures on the yougov website

  3. Maybe the instant reactions to the tv debate will/are giving way to a consideration about Brown v Cameron as PM with a grasp of the issues

  4. @ANTHONY WELLS
    -Are there any more polls due out tonight?

  5. Furthermore, saying “let’s be honest” inevitably alerts the listener to the impending big Porkie.

    I once posted advice to Nick Robinson on his blog, and I swer he read it,, I’ve never heard him repeat his “let’s be honest” habit in the last two years.

  6. @ Keith

    YouGov site confirms 34/28/28, so BBC have it up wrong.

  7. @ WELSHMAN

    Yes, even Harris is HP territory.

    CON largest party but LD+LAB combined have more than CON (& LD could have more than LAB, making LAB the junior partner!).

  8. YouGov are certainly the most profilic Polster so I’d expect them to get it right occasionally

    I don’t know why Nick Clegg says things like ‘Its now a two Horse race” – As a LibDem member and deliverer I wish he’d concentrate on selling the party’s policies rather than coming out with gumph like that

  9. Here I am watching Brown and Paxman and thinking.
    Gordon clearly knows his stuff. Hope he remains in charge of the economy .While Robert in France thinks G is on the ropes and on the way out.

    Funny old world!

  10. GOrdon will be picking up votes tonight, I think

  11. GB excellent on Paxman

  12. The beeb have been running with their ” Cameron is on the way” narrative all day.I was posting leaflets for three hours while listening on a mini headset and it really was jaw dropping to hear commentator after commentator stating it’s more or less a done deal.They really must stop believing their own back-slapping hype.

  13. “It’s a two horse race” is usually the Lib Dem line anywhere in the final week of the campaign-regardless of the polls.Not sure how effective it is in a general election

  14. @AMBER STAR

    thanks

    is the election seat predictor on the bbc site any good ?

  15. Wow! Go Gordon!

    Astonishing performance on Paxaman!
    Best of any leaders!

    Any one listening, I wonder……
    Game changer in the polls?

  16. xiby – Totally what I think – if he’d been that natural in the debates he’d have shown the public a totally different side.

    Nowhere will you find a post from me gushing over GBs performance, but experience really showed there. He and Paxo have sat there many many times and GB beat Paxo up at least as much as Paxo beat him. His answers were so much more convincing too.

    Perhaps AC should have just trusted him to be clever and trusted us to understand him.

  17. Brown just aced that Paxman interview. That will be a tonic for him…and by God the man needs it.

  18. GB was beyond brilliant on Paxman. Is that a partisan comment? Most definitely!! But hearing him there makes me proud that he is my Prim Minister.

    Pity the viewership is fairly low

  19. Andy W

    Yes, Gordon Brown was excellent. He ran rings round Paxman in respect of facts and figures, never got flustered or stumbled for an answer. He is so much better in this sort of interview than in a debate and on the road. Unfortunately it is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to the outcome but he was impressive.

  20. Brown on paxman ?

    Brown had a good un methinks

  21. Chris in the north – if it’s worth typing, it’s worth copying onto your clipboard in case captcha captchas ya.

    Xiby – the reason why Brown is godd one-to-one and not good one-to-more-than-one is why I make money.

    Being one-to-one is about conjuring a self-belief that proves to yourself that each and every person out there is an individual who wants to talk with you.

    Learnable, coachable, and nothing to do with “spin-merchants” The ancient art of Rhetoric. requires study of art as well as stats and advocacy

  22. @: Chris, Andy and Valerie, Gordon Brown is best place to lead this country than Clegg and Cameron, let’s call a spade a spade.

    He’s got the knowledge and gravitas to deal with issues facing this country. We shouldn’t let the media feed us with falsehood for their own selfish interest.

    I don’t particularly like GB as a person, but I wouldn’t let my send of emotion becloud my sense of reasoning!

  23. Yet AGAIN- despite EVERYTHING that has (supposedly) happened and been (tom bradby) reported over the last 48 hours……it is STILL “GAME ON”…

    This election is going right to thy wire next Thursday.. :-) :-)

  24. Re Nick and “Two horse Race”

    I am, as most would conclude, a pretty good Lab weathervane and comments like this grate enormously. (See also brown a desperate politician” and the many hints that he has the right to choose who leads my party.

    It’s a bold play, but gives no thought to negotiations on May 7th.

  25. Sorry, meant “being one-to more-than-one is about”…(I don’t make much money BTW :)

  26. @ yozza
    “The beeb have been running with their ” Cameron is on the way” narrative all day.I was posting leaflets for three hours while listening on a mini headset and it really was jaw dropping to hear commentator after commentator stating it’s more or less a done deal.They really must stop believing their own back-slapping hype.”

    Yozza – that’s fine – let them do it.
    As I’ve been saying for weeks, the polls have been following a wave movement, and the more people hear that the Tories are heading for victory, the more it will galvonise the Labour vote, and the more the polls will narrow.

    As for Nick Clegg’s arrogance, saying it’s now a ‘two horse race’, I’m sure that will have a similar effect.
    But maybe secretly, that’s what he wants, as he realises a Tory majority will do him no good at all ?

  27. GB interview with Paxman exposed his incompetence accross the spectrum of issues.

    If the polls remain static, one plus side will be GB’s departure- this now clearly a pre-requisite for a Lib-lab deal. Will Labour allow Brown to stagger on and see the Libs form a coalition with the Conservatives???

  28. Posted earlier [and crashed], pre-poll,
    to say how puzzled I was by Tory euphoria when all we’ve had in the past 24 hours is a leaders’debate and an artificicial vote on “who won”.

    With hindsight I suppose it must have been the wall to wall reporting of the latter that had them so over the top.

    I pointed out that YG has not had the Tories over 34 for a week – and now it’s longer.

    Anyone who can’t see the significance of that isn’t thinking.

    The one thing I’ve always agree with Eoin with is not to write of brown or Labour. This is on a knife-edge: get the tactical voting right and we’re looking at electoral reform – whether it’s Labour or lab/lib Dem in power.

  29. Well, I’ve only seen the bit from the Paxman interview about Mrs Duffy, but if Brown thought she said that all foreign students should be deported its no wonder he thinks Nick Clegg leads the Liberal Party!

    I suppose it is an occupational hazard for politicians not to listen to what people say to them (unfortunately)

  30. So are both Con and Lab regretting agreeing to TV debates now?

    Cons for letting Nick get 41/2 hours equal air time and being more suave than DC
    Lab for not realising GB really not televisual at debating, and much better at 1-to-1 interviews.

    I wonder if we will see them agree to it again!

  31. Wow! Go Gordon!

    Astonishing performance on Paxaman!
    Best of any leaders!

    Any one listening, I wonder……
    Game changer in the polls?

    At 8.30 on a Friday night, the night after the Big Debate? Unfortunately for Brown, not.

  32. Brown on Paxo – Won’t change a cotton pickin thing, but he excelled. Now what odds will Richard O give me on the Sun running the headline tomorrow “Paxo Stuffed”?…..

  33. My Friend Amber
    and my other friends Sue, Rob S, John TT, Surbiton, Jim Jam, Paul Croft, Eoin &co
    I can’t be with you. I lost my mum on Wednesday – I am bereft.
    I will miss you all
    Bye bye till………..

  34. Anyone with half a brain(so that excludes Robert in France then) would acknowledge Brown did very well tonight. He handled Paxman with consummate ease.
    Why was this on BBC1? I thought the other leader interviews were on BBC2?

  35. Pay heed to Harris at your peril :)

  36. @Ian Mackay,

    Are you Alastair Campbell in disguise?

    How can any poll showing Labour at least 6% behind just a few days before an election be good news!

    The campaign has been a shambles, from calling a member of the public a bigot, to elvis, peppa pig, car crashes. All metaphors for a break from Labour now.

  37. Mori, if true, would have Con on their highest poll for a good long time. The same could be said for Mori’s last poll too. How reliable is the rumour?

  38. George Gardner : “GB interview with Paxman exposed his incompetence accross the spectrum of issues.”

    Very true, I’ve never seen Paxman so exposed.”have you read my speech?” Er, no” was priceless.

    I bet Michael Howard was cheerig GB on :)

  39. Brown was superb in debate and thought I would see Labour increase in polls after the media’s last ditch attempt to destroy Brown this week. It is the real resistance to Conservative/Cameron despite all their helpers in the media that is staggering. One pollster the other day talking of highest ever recorded Don’t Knows 49%. LibDems staying high in polls as the people who want change reject Conservative – I mean less than 1% up on their 2005 defeat?

  40. Paxman vs double Corrie with Eastenders in between.

    Wonder which won?

    It’s bank holiday weekend. Around 20% have already voted, there’s no more debates and a substantial amount of people will not be arsed with it now until Monday night at the earliest.

    Personally, I think static polls now until Tuesday and even after that very little movement.

  41. @PAUL BRISTOL
    re whether GB/PAXMAN interview is a game changer

    -It looks like the “game changer” scenario is over.
    -YouGov polls show the same level of support for each party before and after last night’s debate and Mrs Duffy

  42. Mike Pearce – no, they were on BBC1

  43. @JOHN TT
    re. Learning how to come across.
    It did strike me how after the first debate DC learned how to look directly at the camera instead of the audience and how GB didn’t even try to do it. It’s the reason I think so many people liked NC in the first debate and DC in the second. (yes, it think it could be that simple!)
    GB must have media advisers, does he ignore their advice or were they advising him badly for the debates I wonder?
    I’d have thought someone would have told GB not to smile too much too.
    That’s not partisan; I like GB :)

  44. I think Nick Clegg’s “Two horse race” thing is clear hyperbole, but I can see why he’d do it; he wouldn’t get very much in the way of headlines saying “it’s a three horse race and not one with the LDs trailing by 10% this time”. Labour and Conservative parties are still trying to push the old “Lib Dems are a wasted vote” line, with minor changes, and so the Lib Dems quite badly need to emphasize that they’re contenders in their own right.

  45. It’s feeling very Labour tonight on here!

    Any help anyone?

  46. rod liddle on bbc news 24 now

    hes clearly heard the latest poll

    because hes really grumpy

    lol

  47. @Colin Green

    See the previous thread – the MORI figures were an old poll *of Times readers* and are not a new VI poll

  48. I think Brown has become a very effective communicator in the last few days. We saw it on the debate-which frankly he won-and we saw it on Paxman.

    As a Labour supporter I still havent lost hope that a centre left coalition could be formed which will keep Cameron and his grinning jackal Osborne out. But I still think the crunch will come on Tuesday. If Yougov is still polling similar figures then theres a chance…..but I suspect that history will repeat itself and the figures will be 38-28-26

  49. Any other polls out tonight? Also is the Mori rumour true?

  50. Brown was indeed excellent on Paxman, but the newspapers should the report it will simply report that he looked bewildered, tried to blame others for everything etc.

    You can’t win a general election without the support of the media. I remember in 1992 how there was a clear attack on the fact that labour was led by a welshman (virtual every criticism of Kinnock referred to his Welshness) and a scot.

    It leads me to wonder, when did a non-englishman (or woman) last win a GE, and I don’t mean born outside england like Tony Blair.

    For the first time i’m starting to think we will get a conservative majority next week.

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