YouGov’s daily polling tonight has topline figures of CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc). Obviously there is no significant change since yesterday. YouGov’s polls this week have been pretty static, Conservatives at 33-34%, Labour at 27-29%, the Lib Dems mostly around 28-29% aside from that one spike to 31%. Neither the Mrs Duffy affair nor the second debate seem to have had any great effect.

It looks like YouGov are entering the final week of the campaign showing a broad position of the Conservatives around about 34%, and Labour and the Lib Dems neck and neck in the high twenties.


255 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 34/28/28”

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  1. So that’s why I couldn’t access the site.

  2. Is that it for today – no more polls?

  3. So where did Paddy Ashdown and Nick Clegg get the idea that this is a two horse race from? Methinks wishful thinking.

  4. Slightly disappointing poll for me as a Tory. I would have thought Cameron’s excellent performance in the last debate, and the Duffy disaster for GB would have had more effect than this poll has shown. Clegg still holding up very well.

  5. Clearly of the three, Clegg will be happiest about this. If anyone had offered him that a month ago, he’d have taken it.

    Who will be leaast happy with it?

    I don’t know myself, since cameron feels he has the momentum, and Brown will feel he’s still in the game.

  6. hhhmmmm- so the “balanced parliament” narrative continues apace.. :-)

  7. Tories must be fairly gutted. Zero bounce from Cameron’s much trumpetted beautr pagaent win. Deals still left unsealed.

  8. But how is the vote being distributed in the marginals?

    The election is all to play for.

  9. I’ll take 34 28 28 as an opening gambit.

  10. @Andy W

    Maybe they got it from the Harris poll in tomorrow’s Mail, which is:

    33/24/32

  11. I would have though that the people least happy with this will be the tories

    clearly

    surely they will be dumbfounded by this

    they have not shifted

    and labour have hardly been affected at all by the duffy episode

  12. There should be at least 2 more polls, one for Harris and for Mori.

    Rumours are:

    Harris: Con 33, LD 32, Lab 24
    Mori: Con 38, LD 28, Lab 27

    None of them, incredibly, show the Tories with an overall majority.

    Average(ish) of the three:

    Con: 35, LD: 29, Lab: 26..

    Con 32 short of majority

  13. Oh, and yes Eoin I know the fieldwork for Harris will be old!! ;)

    link for Mail:

    h t t p://www.politicshome.com/images/frontpages/mail_1may.jpg

  14. If one plugs these numbers into this site’s UNS calculator, the result is:
    Conservative 261
    Labour 268
    LibDem 90

    I suspect both the Conservatives and LibDems would do better, and Labour worse, but these sorts of numbers do deliver a parliament where the LibDems would hold the balance of power.

    But there are still six days to go, there could be some shifts.

  15. Voters are getting scared of a hung parliament. My prediction is still The Conservative and Unionist party 336 +/- 6 seats (ok I added in the Unionists!)

  16. “I would have though that the people least happy with this will be the tories”

    I think that’s true. However, let’s wait and see what other polls say first. The Harris one, though much less reliable IMO, is much more encouraging. What will the ICM one show?

  17. Just watching Brown struggling and on the ropes with Paxman. He looks like a man who knows that the game is up.

  18. IS You Gov the most reliable poll?

    Gordon’s admirable tenacity being shown in the Paxo interview

  19. @Colin Wobbles:

    The MORI rumour is not a VI poll:

    “Philippe there is no Mori poll. Kevin McGuire quoted a Mori poll from 2005 that showed the Conservatives won 38% among Times readers. Some people seem unable to read this properly and think there is a new Mori. There isn’t.”

  20. fieldwork 29th-30th April

    So actually we don’t know how much of the polling if the 1,412 sample happened before the debate.

  21. I wonder if displaying the odds of a majority is a more meaningful way of displaying the likely outcome of the general election.

    http://politicszone.betfair.com/zone?action=large_chart&exch_id=1&mkt_id=4772641&pcts=1

  22. Also, if the Harris poll was replicated on Thursday, I think Liam Fox would lose his seat

  23. Electoral calculus, with a swing to the Lib Dems of 4% from the tories and 10% from Labour sees a seat distribution of

    tories 251
    Labour 249
    Lib Dems 118

    As it stands right now there has been neither a Duffy induced collapse nor a Cameron debate bounce.

    If nothing else, hopefully it will help to modify the frankly distasteful triumphalism emanating from the tory press; especially the Torygraph!

  24. The Tories are still well short of a majority, this is a much bigger story than Mrs Duffy or the 3rd debate, it is quite staggering. What does Gordon Brown have to do before Cameron hits 40 points again? no please don`t anwser that , a rhetorical question.

  25. I was just about to post, before the site crashed….

    Anything less than 35% for the Tories tonight, and they will be disappointed.
    Anything more than 27% for Labour tonight, and they would be relatively happy, and that it’s not all over yet.

    So, since last Fri. night, the only movement is 1% each from Lab and Lib to ‘others’.

    Last Fri. night we only had YouGov and Harris.
    All the others will be tomorrow night.

  26. It seems to me that yougov is the most accurate polling organisation.

    At the time of writing it also seems to me that although the Labour vote is dire by normal standards, it is even more dire for the tories who are only polling 1% above the 2005 level and 3% above the 1997 level after 13 years out of power and with most of Fleet Street and most TV news biased in their favour.

    It is also interesting that 56% of the electorate are on the centre left and yet the right stands a chance of becoming the government on only 34%

    The crunch of course comes early next week when there is traditionally a panic back to the tories. I hope it doesnt happen.

  27. So 2 days after bigotgate and 1 day after “cameron won!” the only change is a +1 for labour.

    It’s worth re-pasting this generally unreported detail from last night’s ICM:

    “However, the third debate had less effect than the first two. Only 15% of respondents who saw it said it changed the way they planned to vote, while 77% said they had already made up their mind. Viewing figures will emerge today.

    The Lib Dems continued to pick up more supporters than any other party, with 39% of the small number of switchers saying they were moving to Clegg’s party. But Labour was close behind on 33%, with 15% moving to the Conservatives.

    Overall, 36% said Brown would be the best prime minister, against 35% who named Cameron, and 23% Clegg. Brown’s lead over Cameron was larger as the leader most likely to make the decisions when the going gets tough, 45% to 32%; Clegg was third on 17%.”

  28. @Pankot

    thanks for that – it’s been a rumour on twitter and ConHome.. this shows the third debate seems to have done nothing then

  29. If Labour holds its nerve…the game is still on

  30. Astonishingly good poll for Labour and the final nail in the coffin for ridiculous snap post-debate polls and their assertion that Cameron had ‘won’ the debate and, in the eyes of the media, had won the election.

    The Tory media must be trembling with fear. A few more points and Labour is the largest party and might even sneak a majority.

    My GE prediction …

    L 32
    C 33
    LD 25

    With nationalists and DUP, Labour would be over the wire without any LibDem support.

    How ironic.

  31. BBC website has libdems on 27

    any confirmation on them being 28?

  32. Is there a ComRes poll coming out tonight?

  33. If the Tories couldn’t move the polls significantly after the events of the last 72 hours, there is no way they’ll shift them to overall majority ground now.

    Odds on a hung parliament now – maybe with even Lab still largest party.

  34. What happened to the Harris survey carried out continuously during the last debate?
    I took part but haven’t seen any results even on the Harris website.

  35. That’s the YouGov above.

    Harris gives

    tories 247
    Labour 178
    Lib Dems 193

    Make of that what you will.

  36. This has got to be the most open election for years. I still have a sneaky feeling that Labour will surprise a few people, but then again I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a Tory landslide. People do seem to like Nick Clegg, you might want him to marry your daughter, and he might remind some of the nice young GP, but would you want him running the country? I think most would say no.

  37. Chris – GB doing SOOO much better on Paxo than on debates, the medium suits him so much better. I also think he does better when he is talking intellectually rather than trying to soundbite-for-the-masses a la debates. (Anyone who thinks I’m being partisan should check my comments about last night)

    Definitely the best of the three so far – he’s beating up on Paxo with a great clunking fist

  38. @Dave

    “At the time of writing it also seems to me that although the Labour vote is dire by normal standards, it is even more dire for the tories who are only polling 1% above the 2005 level and 3% above the 1997 level after 13 years out of power and with most of Fleet Street and most TV news biased in their favour.”

    Oh YES: this is not “the change” we all ‘need’ to vote for !!

    It is going to be a “balanced parliament” without ‘Posh Dave’ involved in the discussions between Labour and Lib Dem…..

  39. David in France – Brown is the one on the left of the screen.
    :)

  40. @KEITH
    YOUGOV WEBSITE
    Our latest daily polling figures for The Sun (fieldwork 29th-30th April; sample size 1,412) are:

    Conservative 34%
    Labour 28%
    Liberal Democrat 28%
    Others 10%

  41. Having updated my regional breakdown, and putting in the figures region by region in the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor I get:

    CON 33.23% 208 33.90% 72 6 274
    LAB 36.20% 346 27.70% 0 94 252
    LIB 22.65% 67 28.90% 28 3 92
    NAT 2.22% 8 2.22% 3 0 11
    MIN 0.86% 3 0.86% 0 0 3

  42. @Keith

    28 is the right figure – on Yougov official site now.

  43. Harris and MORO are old hat with theior fieldwork. If you want to know what’s happening now look at YouGov.

    Tories are fighting Lab to be the largest single party.

  44. Sorry, I meant Robert in France

  45. @Ian McKay

    “With nationalists and DUP, Labour would be over the wire without any LibDem support.”

    ..and Eoin would be laughing all the way to the bookies? ;)

  46. Seeing GB with Paxman – Now this is the GB i know.

    Why wasn’t he like this in all debates?

  47. Kieth – it is definitely 28%, saw the figures being run myself.

    Stuart Ian Burns – all the fieldwork was after the debate. The YouGov fieldwork for the Friday night polls is delayed until after the debate finishes.

  48. Why can’t we comment on Polls in our Sign-on name! i just wrote three paragraph only to be told I’d got the CAPTCHA code wrong… (

  49. GB on Paxo grilling time: I think Gordon countered Paxo well on the failure to regulate the financial sector. Argued his case such as it is! – robustly.

  50. @ Gordon Brown’s media Coach –

    You’re not shy, are you?

    CanI suggest you coach him in the art of varying the pace vocally?

    Can you ask him to say more of his “t” consonants? Constituents has ths 3, not 1,

    Such improvements are eminently learnable and could transform his performance.

    Listening better helps too. That means waiting a sec before replying to questions.

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